"Oft expectation fails": a time-series analysis of construction starts in the London office market

Expectations of future market conditions are generally acknowledged to be crucial for the development decision and hence for shaping the built environment. This empirical study of the Central London office market from 1987 to 2009 tests for evidence of adaptive and naive expectations. Applying VAR models and a recursive OLS regression with one-step forecasts, we find evidence of adaptive and naïve, rather than rational expectations of developers. Although the magnitude of the errors and the length of time lags vary over time and development cycles, the results confirm that developers’ decisions are explained to a large extent by contemporaneous and past conditions in both London submarkets. The corollary of this finding is that developers may be able to generate excess profits by exploiting market inefficiencies but this may be hindered in practice by the long periods necessary for planning and construction of the asset. More generally, the results of this study suggest that real estate cycles are largely generated endogenously rather than being the result of unexpected exogenous shocks.

Use of soft heterocyclic N‑donor ligands to separate actinides and lanthanides

The removal of the most long-lived radiotoxic elements from used nuclear fuel, minor actinides, is foreseen as an essential step toward increasing the public acceptance of nuclear energy as a key component of a low-carbon energy future. Once removed from the remaining used fuel, these elements can be used as fuel in their own right in fast reactors or converted into shorter-lived or stable elements by transmutation prior to geological disposal. The SANEX process is proposed to carry out this selective separation by solvent extraction. Recent efforts to develop reagents capable of separating the radioactive minor actinides from lanthanides as part of a future strategy for the management and reprocessing of used nuclear fuel are reviewed. The current strategies for the reprocessing of PUREX raffinate are summarized, and some guiding principles for the design of actinide-selective reagents are defined. The development and testing of different classes of solvent extraction reagent are then summarized, covering some of the earliest ligand designs right through to the current reagents of choice, bis(1,2,4-triazine) ligands. Finally, we summarize research aimed at developing a fundamental understanding of the underlying reasons for the excellent extraction capabilities and high actinide/lanthanide selectivities shown by this class of ligands and our recent efforts to immobilize these reagents onto solid phases.

On the solvability of second kind integral equations on the real line

This paper considers general second kind integral equations of the form(in operator form φ − kφ = ψ), where the functions k and ψ are assumed known, with ψ ∈ Y, the space of bounded continuous functions on R, and k such that the mapping s → k(s, · ), from R to L1(R), is bounded and continuous. The function φ ∈ Y is the solution to be determined. Conditions on a set W ⊂ BC(R, L1(R)) are obtained such that a generalised Fredholm alternative holds: If W satisfies these conditions and I − k is injective for all k ∈ W then I − k is also surjective for all k ∈ W and, moreover, the inverse operators (I − k) − 1 on Y are uniformly bounded for k ∈ W. The approximation of the kernel in the integral equation by a sequence (kn) converging in a weak sense to k is also considered and results on stability and convergence are obtained. These general theorems are used to establish results for two special classes of kernels: k(s, t) = κ(s − t)z(t) and k(s, t) = κ(s − t)λ(s − t, t), where κ ∈ L1(R), z ∈ L∞(R), and λ ∈ BC((R\{0}) × R). Kernels of both classes arise in problems of time harmonic wave scattering by unbounded surfaces. The general integral equation results are here applied to prove the existence of a solution for a boundary integral equation formulation of scattering by an infinite rough surface and to consider the stability and convergence of approximation of the rough surface problem by a sequence of diffraction grating problems of increasingly large period.

Interface vulnerability and knowledge of the subjunctive/indicative distinction with negated epistemic predicates in L2 Spanish.

Much recent research in SLA is guided by the hypothesis of L2 interface vulnerability (see Sorace 2005). This study contributes to this general project by examining the acquisition of two classes of subjunctive complement clauses in L2 Spanish: subjunctive complements of volitional predicates (purely syntactic) and subjunctive vs. indicative complements with negated epistemic matrix predicates, where the mood distinction is discourse dependent (thus involving the syntax-discourse interface). We provide an analysis of the volitional subjunctive in English and Spanish, suggesting that English learners of L2 Spanish need to access the functional projection Mood P and an uninterpretable modal feature on the Force head available to them from their formal English register grammar, and simultaneously must unacquire the structure of English for-to clauses. For negated epistemic predicates, our analysis maintains that they need to revalue the modal feature on the Force head from uninterpretable to interpretable, within the L2 grammar.With others (e.g. Borgonovo & Prévost 2003; Borgonovo, Bruhn de Garavito & Prévost 2005) and in line with Sorace's (2000, 2003, 2005) notion of interface vulnerability, we maintain that the latter case is more difficult for L2 learners, which is borne out in the data we present. However, the data also show that the indicative/subjunctive distinction with negated epistemics can be acquired by advanced stages of acquisition, questioning the notion of obligatory residual optionality for all properties which require the integration of syntactic and discourse information.

Retrieval of phytoplankton size from bio-optical measurements: theory and applications

The absorption coefficient of a substance distributed as discrete particles in suspension is less than that of the same material dissolved uniformly in a medium—a phenomenon commonly referred to as the flattening effect. The decrease in the absorption coefficient owing to flattening effect depends on the concentration of the absorbing pigment inside the particle, the specific absorption coefficient of the pigment within the particle, and on the diameter of the particle, if the particles are assumed to be spherical. For phytoplankton cells in the ocean, with diameters ranging from less than 1 µm to more than 100 µm, the flattening effect is variable, and sometimes pronounced, as has been well documented in the literature. Here, we demonstrate how the in vivo absorption coefficient of phytoplankton cells per unit concentration of its major pigment, chlorophyll a, can be used to determine the average cell size of the phytoplankton population. Sensitivity analyses are carried out to evaluate the errors in the estimated diameter owing to potential errors in the model assumptions. Cell sizes computed for field samples using the model are compared qualitatively with indirect estimates of size classes derived from high performance liquid chromatography data. Also, the results are compared quantitatively against measurements of cell size in laboratory cultures. The method developed is easy-to-apply as an operational tool for in situ observations, and has the potential for application to remote sensing of ocean colour data.

The capability-affordance model: a method for analysis and modelling of capabilities and affordances

Existing capability models lack qualitative and quantitative means to compare business capabilities. This paper extends previous work and uses affordance theories to consistently model and analyse capabilities. We use the concept of objective and subjective affordances to model capability as a tuple of a set of resource affordance system mechanisms and action paths, dependent on one or more critical affordance factors. We identify an affordance chain of subjective affordances by which affordances work together to enable an action and an affordance path that links action affordances to create a capability system. We define the mechanism and path underlying capability. We show how affordance modelling notation, AMN, can represent affordances comprising a capability. We propose a method to quantitatively and qualitatively compare capabilities using efficiency, effectiveness and quality metrics. The method is demonstrated by a medical example comparing the capability of syringe and needless anaesthetic systems.

The role of soil microbes in the global carbon cycle: tracking the below-ground microbial processing of plant-derived carbon for manipulating carbon dynamics in agricultural systems.

It is well known that atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide (CO2) (and other greenhouse gases) have increased markedly as a result of human activity since the industrial revolution. It is perhaps less appreciated that natural and managed soils are an important source and sink for atmospheric CO2 and that, primarily as a result of the activities of soil microorganisms, there is a soil-derived respiratory flux of CO2 to the atmosphere that overshadows by tenfold the annual CO2 flux from fossil fuel emissions. Therefore small changes in the soil carbon cycle could have large impacts on atmospheric CO2 concentrations. Here we discuss the role of soil microbes in the global carbon cycle and review the main methods that have been used to identify the microorganisms responsible for the processing of plant photosynthetic carbon inputs to soil. We discuss whether application of these techniques can provide the information required to underpin the management of agro-ecosystems for carbon sequestration and increased agricultural sustainability. We conclude that, although crucial in enabling the identification of plant-derived carbon-utilising microbes, current technologies lack the high-throughput ability to quantitatively apportion carbon use by phylogentic groups and its use efficiency and destination within the microbial metabolome. It is this information that is required to inform rational manipulation of the plant–soil system to favour organisms or physiologies most important for promoting soil carbon storage in agricultural soil.

Sample preparation: a crucial factor for the analytical performance of rationally designed MALDI matrices

Evidence is presented that the performance of the rationally designed MALDI matrix 4-chloro-α-cyanocinnamic acid (ClCCA) in comparison to its well-established predecessor α-cyano-4-hydroxycinnamic acid (CHCA) is significantly dependent on the sample preparation, such as the choice of the target plate. In this context, it becomes clear that any rational designs of MALDI matrices and their successful employment have to consider a larger set of physicochemical parameters, including sample crystallization and morphology/topology, in addition to parameters of basic (solution and/or gas-phase) chemistry.

A land cover map of Latin America and the Caribbean in the framework of the SERENA project

Land cover maps at different resolutions and mapping extents contribute to modeling and support decision making processes. Because land cover affects and is affected by climate change, it is listed among the 13 terrestrial essential climate variables. This paper describes the generation of a land cover map for Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) for the year 2008. It was developed in the framework of the project Latin American Network for Monitoring and Studying of Natural Resources (SERENA), which has been developed within the GOFC-GOLD Latin American network of remote sensing and forest fires (RedLaTIF). The SERENA land cover map for LAC integrates: 1) the local expertise of SERENA network members to generate the training and validation data, 2) a methodology for land cover mapping based on decision trees using MODIS time series, and 3) class membership estimates to account for pixel heterogeneity issues. The discrete SERENA land cover product, derived from class memberships, yields an overall accuracy of 84% and includes an additional layer representing the estimated per-pixel confidence. The study demonstrates in detail the use of class memberships to better estimate the area of scarce classes with a scattered spatial distribution. The land cover map is already available as a printed wall map and will be released in digital format in the near future. The SERENA land cover map was produced with a legend and classification strategy similar to that used by the North American Land Change Monitoring System (NALCMS) to generate a land cover map of the North American continent, that will allow to combine both maps to generate consistent data across America facilitating continental monitoring and modeling

Detection of coherent airstreams using cluster analysis: application to an extratropical cyclone

Flow in geophysical fluids is commonly summarized by coherent streams, for example conveyor belt flows in extratropical cyclones or jet streaks in the upper troposphere. Typically, parcel trajectories are calculated from the flow field and subjective thresholds are used to distinguish coherent streams of interest. This methodology contribution develops a more objective approach to distinguish coherent airstreams within extratropical cyclones. Agglomerative clustering is applied to trajectories along with a method to identify the optimal number of cluster classes. The methodology is applied to trajectories associated with the low-level jets of a well-studied extratropical cyclone. For computational efficiency, a constraint that trajectories must pass through these jet regions is applied prior to clustering; the partitioning into different airstreams is then performed by the agglomerative clustering. It is demonstrated that the methodology can identify the salient flow structures of cyclones: the warm and cold conveyor belts. A test focusing on the airstreams terminating at the tip of the bent-back front further demonstrates the success of the method in that it can distinguish fine-scale flow structure such as descending sting jet airstreams.

Electronic structure of Pd multi-layers on Re(0001): the role of charge transfer

Understanding the origin of the properties of metal-supported metal thin films is important for the rational design of bimetallic catalysts and other applications, but it is generally difficult to separate effects related to strain from those arising from interface interactions. Here we use density functional (DFT) theory to examine the structure and electronic behavior of few-layer palladium films on the rhenium (0001) surface, where there is negligible interfacial strain and therefore other effects can be isolated. Our DFT calculations predict stacking sequences and interlayer separations in excellent agreement with quantitative low-energy electron diffraction experiments. By theoretically simulating the Pd core-level X-ray photoemission spectra (XPS) of the films, we are able to interpret and assign the basic features of both low-resolution and high-resolution XPS measurements. The core levels at the interface shift to more negative energies, rigidly following the shifts in the same direction of the valence d-band center. We demonstrate that the valence band shift at the interface is caused by charge transfer from Re to Pd, which occurs mainly to valence states of hybridized s-p character rather than to the Pd d-band. Since the d-band filling is roughly constant, there is a correlation between the d-band center shift and its bandwidth. The resulting effect of this charge transfer on the valence d-band is thus analogous to the application of a lateral compressive strain on the adlayers. Our analysis suggests that charge transfer should be considered when describing the origin of core and valence band shifts in other metal / metal adlayer systems.

Role of ligands in catalytic water oxidation by mononuclear ruthenium complexes

Since first reported in 2005, mononuclear ruthenium water oxidation catalysts have attracted a great deal of attention due to their catalytic performance and synthetic flexibility. In particular, ligands coordinated to a Ru metal centre play an important role in the catalytic mechanisms, exhibiting significant impact on catalyst efficiency, stability and activity towards water oxidation. This review focuses on finding possible correlations between the ligand effects and activity of mononuclear Ru aqua and non-aqua complexes as water oxidation catalysts. The ligand effects highlighted in the text include the electronic nature of core ligands and their substituents, the trans–cis effect, steric hindrance and the strain effect, the net charge effect, the geometric arrangement of the aqua ligand and the supramolecular effects, e.g., hydrogen bonding and influence of a pendant base. The outcome is not always obvious at the present knowledge level. Deeper understanding of the ligand effects, based on new input data, is mandatory for further progress towards a rational development of novel catalysts featuring enhanced activity in water oxidation.

Evidence of evolving extraintestinal enteroaggregative Escherichia coli ST38 clone

BACKGROUND: Several clones of extended-spectrum β-lactamase (ESBL)–producing extraintestinal pathogenic Escherichia coli (ExPEC) have globally expanded their distribution. ExPEC infections often originate from the patient’s own intestinal flora, although the degree of overlap between diarrheagenic E. coli and ExPEC pathotypes is unclear. Relatively little is known about antimicrobial drug resistance in the most common diarrheagenic E. coli groups, including enteroaggregative E. coli (EAEC), and bacterial gastroenteritis is generally managed without use of antimicrobial drugs. APPROACHES: We conducted this study to establish the presence and characteristics of ESBL-producing EAEC in a well-defined collection of ESBL-producing isolates. The isolates were from human and animal sources in Germany, the Netherlands, and the United Kingdom. DNA from 359 ESBL isolates was screened for the presence of the EAEC transport regulator gene (aggR), located on the EAEC plasmid, using a real-time PCR assay and the phylogroup was determined for each positive isolate. A microarray was used to detect ESBL genes, such as blaCTX-M, at the group level, as previously described. The antimicrobial drug susceptibilities of EAEC isolates were determined and virulence factors associated with intestinal and extraintestinal infection and with EAEC were investigated . RESULTS AND CONCLUSIONS: We assigned a virulence score (total number of virulence factor genes detected; maximum possible score 22) and a resistance score (total number of drug classes; maximum score 11) to each isolate. We isolated 11 EAEC from humans. Eight of the EAEC were isolated from urine specimens, and 1 was isolated from a blood culture; 63% belonged to phylogroup D (Table). EAEC ST38, the most common (55%) ST, was significantly associated with extraintestinal sites in the subset of 140 human isolates (Fisher exact test, p<0.0001)

Colloidal gas aphrons based separation process for the purification and fractionation of natural phenolic extracts

Following previous studies, the aim of this work is to further investigate the application of colloidal gas aphrons (CGA) to the recovery of polyphenols from a grape marc ethanolic extract with particular focus on exploring the use of a non-ionic food grade surfactant (Tween 20) as an alternative to the more toxic cationic surfactant CTAB. Different batch separation trials in a flotation column were carried out to evaluate the influence of surfactant type and concentration and processing parameters (such as pH, drainage time, CGA/extract volumetric and molar ratio) on the recovery of total and specific phenolic compounds. The possibility of achieving selective separation and concentration of different classes of phenolic compounds and non-phenolic compounds was also assessed, together with the influence of the process on the antioxidant capacity of the recovered compounds. The process led to good recovery, limited loss of antioxidant capacity, but low selectivity under the tested conditions. Results showed the possibility of using Tween 20 with a separation mechanism mainly driven by hydrophobic interactions. Volumetric ratio rather than the molar ratio was the key operating parameter in the recovery of polyphenols by CGA.

A new three-locus model for rootstock-induced dwarfing in apple revealed by genetic mapping of root bark percentage

Rootstock-induced dwarfing of apple scions revolutionized global apple production during the twentieth century, leading to the development of modern intensive orchards. A high root bark percentage (the percentage of the whole root area constituted by root cortex) has previously been associated with rootstock induced dwarfing in apple. In this study, the root bark percentage was measured in a full-sib family of ungrafted apple rootstocks and found to be under the control of three loci. Two QTL for root bark percentage were found to co-localise to the same genomic regions on chromosome 5 and chromosome 11 previously identified as controlling dwarfing, Dw1 and Dw2, respectively. A third QTL was identified on chromosome 13 in a region that has not been previously associated with dwarfing. The development of closely linked 3 Sequence-tagged site STS markers improved the resolution of allelic classes thereby allowing the detection of dominance and epistatic interactions between loci, with high root bark percentage only occurring in specific allelic combinations. In addition, we report a significant negative correlation between root bark percentage and stem diameter (an indicator of tree vigour), measured on a clonally propagated grafted subset of the mapping population. The demonstrated link between root bark percentage and rootstock-induced dwarfing of the scion leads us to propose a three-locus model that is able to explain levels of dwarfing from the dwarf ‘M.27’ to the semi-invigorating rootstock ‘M.116’. Moreover, we suggest that the QTL on chromosome 13 (Rb3) might be analogous to a third dwarfing QTL, Dw3 that has not previously been identified.