Bioclimatic constraints to Andean cat distribution: a modelling application for rare species

AimTo identify the bioclimatic niche of the endangered Andean cat (Leopardus jacobita), one of the rarest and least known felids in the world, by developing a species distribution model.LocationSouth America, High Andes and Patagonian steppe. Peru, Bolivia, Chile, Argentina.MethodsWe used 108 Andean cat records to build the models, and 27 to test them, applying the Maxent algorithm to sets of uncorrelated bioclimatic variables from global databases, including elevation. We based our biogeographical interpretations on the examination of the predicted geographic range, the modelled response curves and latitudinal variations in climatic variables associated with the locality data.ResultsSimple bioclimatic models for Andean cats were highly predictive with only 3-4 explanatory variables. The climatic niche of the species was defined by extreme diurnal variations in temperature, cold minimum and moderate maximum temperatures, and aridity, characteristic not only of the Andean highlands but also of the Patagonian steppe. Argentina had the highest representation of suitable climates, and Chile the lowest. The most favourable conditions were centrally located and spanned across international boundaries. Discontinuities in suitable climatic conditions coincided with three biogeographical barriers associated with climatic or topographic transitions.Main conclusionsSimple bioclimatic models can produce useful predictions of suitable climatic conditions for rare species, including major biogeographical constraints. In our study case, these constraints are also known to affect the distribution of other Andean species and the genetic structure of Andean cat populations. We recommend surveys of areas with suitable climates and no Andean cat records, including the corridor connecting two core populations. The inclusion of landscape variables at finer scales, crucially the distribution of Andean cat prey, would contribute to refine our predictions for conservation applications.

Modelling the effect of minor orthopaedic day surgery on patient mood at the early post-operative period: a prospective population-based cohort study.

OBJECTIVE: The effect of minor orthopaedic day surgery (MiODS) on patient's mood. METHODS: A prospective population-based cohort study of 148 consecutive patients with age above 18 and less than 65, an American Society of Anaesthesiology (ASA) score of 1, and the requirement of general anaesthesia (GA) were included. The Medical Outcomes Study - Short Form 36 (SF-36), Beck Anxiety Inventory (BAI) and Beck Depression Inventory (BDI) were used pre- and post-operatively. RESULTS: The mean physical component score of SF-36 before surgery was 45.3 (SD=+/-10.1) and 8 weeks following surgery was 44.9 (SD=+/-11.04) [n=148, p=0.51, 95% CI=(-1.03 to 1.52)]. For the measurement of the changes in mood using BDI, BAI and SF-36, latent construct modelling was employed to increase validity. The covariance between mood pre- and post-operatively (cov=69.44) corresponded to a correlation coefficient, r=0.88 indicating that patients suffering a greater number of mood symptoms before surgery continue to have a greater number of symptoms following surgery. When the latent mood constructs were permitted to have different means the model fitted well with chi(2) (df=1)=0.86 for which p=0.77, thus the null hypothesis that MiODS has no effect on patient mood was rejected. CONCLUSIONS: MiODS affects patient mood which deteriorates at 8 weeks post-operatively regardless of the pre-operative patient mood state. More importantly patients suffering a greater number of mood symptoms before MiODS continue to have a greater number of symptoms following surgery.

Inverse association between circulating vitamin D and mortality-dependent on sex and cause of death?

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: In various populations, vitamin D deficiency is associated with chronic diseases and mortality. We examined the association between concentration of circulating 25-hydroxyvitamin D [25(OH)D], a marker of vitamin D status, and all-cause as well as cause-specific mortality. METHODS AND RESULTS: The study included 3404 participants of the general adult Swiss population, who were recruited between November 1988 and June 1989 and followed-up until the end of 2008. Circulating 25(OH)D was measured by protein-bound assay. Cox proportional hazards regression was used to examine the association between 25(OH)D concentration and all-cause and cause-specific mortality adjusting for sex, age, season, diet, nationality, blood pressure, and smoking status. Per 10 ng/mL increase in 25(OH)D concentration, all-cause mortality decreased by 20% (HR = 0.83; 95% CI 0.74-0.92). 25(OH)D concentration was inversely associated with cardiovascular mortality in women (HR = 0.68, 95% CI 0.46-1.00 per 10 ng/mL increase), but not in men (HR = 0.97; 95% CI 0.77-1.23). In contrast, 25(OH)D concentration was inversely associated with cancer mortality in men (HR = 0.72, 95% CI 0.57-0.91 per 10 ng/mL increase), but not in women (HR = 1.14, 95% CI 0.93-1.39). Multivariate adjustment only slightly modified the 25(OH)D-mortality association. CONCLUSION: 25(OH)D was similarly inversely related to all-cause mortality in men and women. However, we observed opposite effects in women and men with respect to cardiovascular and cancer mortality.

Up-regulation of the levels of expression and function of a constitutively active mutant of the hamster alpha1B-adrenoceptor by ligands that act as inverse agonists.

The alpha1-adrenergic agonist phenylephrine stimulated phospholipase D (PLD) activity in Rat 1 fibroblasts transfected to express either the wild-type hamster alpha1B-adrenoceptor or a constitutively active mutant (CAM) form of this receptor. The EC50 for agonist stimulation of PLD activity was substantially lower at the CAM receptor than at the wild-type receptor as previously noted for phenylephrine stimulation of phosphoinositidase C activity. Sustained treatment of cells expressing the CAM alpha1B-adrenoceptor with phentolamine resulted in a marked up-regulation in levels of this receptor with half-maximal effects produced within 24 h and with an EC50 of approx. 40 nM. Such an up-regulation could be produced with a range of other ligands generally viewed as alpha1-adrenoceptor antagonists but equivalent treatment of cells expressing the wild-type alpha1B-adrenoceptor was unable to mimic these effects. After sustained treatment of the CAM alpha1B-adrenoceptor expressing cells with phentolamine, basal PLD activity was increased and phenylephrine was now able to stimulate PLD activity to greater levels than in vehicle-treated CAM alpha1B-adrenoceptor-expressing cells. The EC50 for phenylephrine stimulation of PLD activity was not altered, however, by phentolamine pretreatment and the associated up-regulation of the receptor. After phentolamine-induced up-regulation of basal PLD activity, a range of alpha1-antagonists were shown to possess the characteristics of inverse agonists of the CAM alpha1B-adrenoceptor as they were able to substantially decrease the elevated basal PLD activity.

A quantitative analysis of antagonism and inverse agonism at wild-type and constitutively active hamster alpha1B-adrenoceptors.

In order to characterize inverse agonism at alpha1B-adrenoceptors, we have compared the concentration-response relationships of several quinazoline and non-quinazoline alpha1-adrenoceptor antagonists at cloned hamster wild-type (WT) alpha1B-adrenoceptors and a constitutively active mutant (CAM) thereof upon stable expression in Rat-1 fibroblasts. Receptor activation or inhibition thereof was assessed as [3H]inositol phosphate (IP) accumulation. Quinazoline (alfuzosin, doxazosin, prazosin, terazosin) and non-quinazoline alpha1-adrenoceptor antagonists (BE 2254, SB 216,469, tamsulosin) concentration-dependently inhibited phenylephrine-stimulated IP formation at both WT and CAM with Ki values similar to those previously found in radioligand binding studies. At CAM in the absence of phenylephrine, the quinazolines produced concentration-dependent inhibition of basal IP formation; the maximum inhibition was approximately 55%, and the corresponding EC50 values were slightly smaller than the Ki values. In contrast, BE 2254 produced much less inhibition of basal IP formation, SB 216,469 was close to being a neutral antagonist, and tamsulosin even weakly stimulated IP formation. The inhibitory effects of the quinazolines and BE 2254 as well as the stimulatory effect of tamsulosin were equally blocked by SB 216,469 at CAM. At WT in the absence of phenylephrine, tamsulosin did not cause significant stimulation and none of the other compounds caused significant inhibition of basal IP formation. We conclude that alpha1-adrenoceptor antagonsits with a quinazoline structure exhibit greater efficacy as inverse agonists than those without.

Resurgence of HIV infection among men who have sex with men in Switzerland: mathematical modelling study.

BACKGROUND: New HIV infections in men who have sex with men (MSM) have increased in Switzerland since 2000 despite combination antiretroviral therapy (cART). The objectives of this mathematical modelling study were: to describe the dynamics of the HIV epidemic in MSM in Switzerland using national data; to explore the effects of hypothetical prevention scenarios; and to conduct a multivariate sensitivity analysis. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: The model describes HIV transmission, progression and the effects of cART using differential equations. The model was fitted to Swiss HIV and AIDS surveillance data and twelve unknown parameters were estimated. Predicted numbers of diagnosed HIV infections and AIDS cases fitted the observed data well. By the end of 2010, an estimated 13.5% (95% CI 12.5, 14.6%) of all HIV-infected MSM were undiagnosed and accounted for 81.8% (95% CI 81.1, 82.4%) of new HIV infections. The transmission rate was at its lowest from 1995-1999, with a nadir of 46 incident HIV infections in 1999, but increased from 2000. The estimated number of new infections continued to increase to more than 250 in 2010, although the reproduction number was still below the epidemic threshold. Prevention scenarios included temporary reductions in risk behaviour, annual test and treat, and reduction in risk behaviour to levels observed earlier in the epidemic. These led to predicted reductions in new infections from 2 to 26% by 2020. Parameters related to disease progression and relative infectiousness at different HIV stages had the greatest influence on estimates of the net transmission rate. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: The model outputs suggest that the increase in HIV transmission amongst MSM in Switzerland is the result of continuing risky sexual behaviour, particularly by those unaware of their infection status. Long term reductions in the incidence of HIV infection in MSM in Switzerland will require increased and sustained uptake of effective interventions.

Driver scheduling problem modelling

The Drivers Scheduling Problem (DSP) consists of selecting a set of duties for vehicle drivers, for example buses, trains, plane or boat drivers or pilots, for the transportation of passengers or goods. This is a complex problem because it involves several constraints related to labour and company rules and can also present different evaluation criteria and objectives. Being able to develop an adequate model for this problem that can represent the real problem as close as possible is an important research area.The main objective of this research work is to present new mathematical models to the DSP problem that represent all the complexity of the drivers scheduling problem, and also demonstrate that the solutions of these models can be easily implemented in real situations. This issue has been recognized by several authors and as important problem in Public Transportation. The most well-known and general formulation for the DSP is a Set Partition/Set Covering Model (SPP/SCP). However, to a large extend these models simplify some of the specific business aspects and issues of real problems. This makes it difficult to use these models as automatic planning systems because the schedules obtained must be modified manually to be implemented in real situations. Based on extensive passenger transportation experience in bus companies in Portugal, we propose new alternative models to formulate the DSP problem. These models are also based on Set Partitioning/Covering Models; however, they take into account the bus operator issues and the perspective opinions and environment of the user.We follow the steps of the Operations Research Methodology which consist of: Identify the Problem; Understand the System; Formulate a Mathematical Model; Verify the Model; Select the Best Alternative; Present the Results of theAnalysis and Implement and Evaluate. All the processes are done with close participation and involvement of the final users from different transportation companies. The planner s opinion and main criticisms are used to improve the proposed model in a continuous enrichment process. The final objective is to have a model that can be incorporated into an information system to be used as an automatic tool to produce driver schedules. Therefore, the criteria for evaluating the models is the capacity to generate real and useful schedules that can be implemented without many manual adjustments or modifications. We have considered the following as measures of the quality of the model: simplicity, solution quality and applicability. We tested the alternative models with a set of real data obtained from several different transportation companies and analyzed the optimal schedules obtained with respect to the applicability of the solution to the real situation. To do this, the schedules were analyzed by the planners to determine their quality and applicability. The main result of this work is the proposition of new mathematical models for the DSP that better represent the realities of the passenger transportation operators and lead to better schedules that can be implemented directly in real situations.

New evidence on inflation persistence and price stickiness in the Euro area: Implications for macro modelling

This paper evaluates new evidence on price setting practices and inflation persistence in the euro area with respect to its implications for macro modelling. It argues that several of the most commonly used assumptions in micro-founded macro models are seriously challenged by the new findings.

Geometry, petrology and growth of a shallow crustal laccolith : the Torres del Paine Mafic Complex (Patagonia)

1. ABSTRACTS - RÉSUMÉSSCIENTIFIC ABSTRACT - ENGLISH VERSIONGeometry, petrology and growth of a shallow crustal laccolith: the Torres del Paine Mafi c Complex (Patagonia)The Torres del Paine intrusive complex (TPIC) is a composite mafic-granitic intrusion, ~70km2, belonging to a chain of isolated Miocene plutons in southern Patagonia. Their position is intermediate between the Mesozoic-Cenozoic calc-alkaline subduction related Patagonian batholith in the West and the late Cenozoic alkaline basaltic back-arc related plateau lavas in the East. The Torres del Paine complex formed during an important reconfiguration of the Patagonian geodynamic setting, with a migration of magmatism from the arc to the back-arc, possibly related to the Chile ridge subductionThe complex intruded the flysch of the Cretaceous Cerro Toro and Punta Barrosa Formations during the Miocene, creating a well-defined narrow contact aureole of 200-400 m width.In its eastern part, the Torres del Paine intrusive complex is a laccolith, composed of a succession of hornblende-gabbro to diorite sills at its base, with a total thickness of ~250m, showing brittle contacts with the overlying granitic sills, that form spectacular cliffs of more than 1000m. This laccolith is connected, in the western part, to its feeding system, with vertical alternating sheets of layered gabbronorite and Hbl-gabbro, surrounded and percolated by diorites. ID-TIMS U-Pb on zircons on feeder zone (FZ) gab- bros yield 12.593±0.009Ma and 12.587±0.009Ma, which is identifcal within error to the oldest granite dated so far by Michel et al. (2008). In contrast, the laccolith mafic complex is younger than than the youngest granite (12.50±0.02Ma), and has been emplaced from 12.472±0.009Ma to 12.431 ±0.006Ma, by under-accretion beneath the youngest granite at the interface with previously emplaced mafic sills.The gabbronorite crystallization sequence in the feeder zone is dominated by olivine, plagioclase, clinopyroxene and orthopyroxene, while amphibole forms late interstitial crystals. The crystallization sequence is identical in Hornblende-gabbro from the feeder zone, with higher modal hornblende. Gabbronorite and Hornblende-gabbro both display distinct Eu and Sr positive anomalies. In the laccolith, a lower Hornblende-gabbro crystallized in sills and evolved to a high alkali shoshonitic series. The Al203, Ti02, Na20, K20, Ba and Sr composition of these gabbros is highly variable and increases up to ~50wt% Si02. The lower hornblende-gabbro is characterized by kaersutite anhedral cores with inclusions of olivine, clino- and orthopyroxene and rare apatite and An70 plagioclase. Trace element modelling indicates that hornblende and clinopyroxene are in equilibrium with a liquid whose composition is similar to late basaltic trachyandesitic dikes that cut the complex. The matrix in the lower hornblende gabbro is composed of normally zoned oligoclase, Magnesio-hornblende, biotite, ilmenite and rare quartz and potassium feldspar. This assemblage crystallized in-situ from a Ba and Sr-depleted melts. In contrast, the upper Hbl-gabbro is high-K calc-alkaline. Poikilitic pargasite cores have inclusions of euhedral An70 plagioclase inclusions, and contain occasionally clinopyroxene, olivine and orthopyroxene. The matrix composition is identical to the lower hornblende-gabbro and similar to the diorite. Diorite bulk rock compositions show the same mineralogy but different modal proportions relative to hornblende-gabbrosThe Torres del Paine Intrusive Complex isotopic composition is 87Sr/86Sr=0.704, 143Nd/144Nd=0.5127, 206Pb/204Pb=18.70 and 207Pb/204Pb=15.65. Differentiated dioritic and granitic units may be linked to the gabbroic cumulates series, with 20-50% trapped interstitial melt, through fractionation of olivine-bearing gabbronorite or hornblende-gabbro fractionation The relative homogeneity of the isotopic compositions indicate that only small amounts of assimilation occurred. Two-pyroxenes thermometry, clinopyroxene barometry and amphibole-plagioclase thermometry was used to estimate pressure and temperature conditions. The early fractionation of ultramafic cumulates occurs at mid to lower crustal conditions, at temperatures exceeding 900°C. In contrast, the TPIC emplacement conditions have been estimated to ~0.7±0.5kbar and 790±60°C.Based on field and microtextural observations and geochemical modelling, fractionation of basaltic-trachyandesitic liquids at intermediate to lower crustal levels, has led to the formation of the Torres del Paine granites. Repetitive replenishment of basaltic trachy- andesitic liquid in crustal reservoirs led to mixed magmas that will ascend via the feeder zone, and crystallize into a laccolith, in the form of successive dioritic and gabbroic sills. Dynamic fractionation during emplacement concentrated hornblende rich cumulates in the center of individual sills. Variable degrees.of post-emplacement compaction led to the expulsion of felsic liquids that preferentially concentrated at the top of the sills. Incremental sills amalgamation of the entire Torres del Paine Intrusive Complex has lasted for ~160ka.RESUME SCIENTIFIQUE - VERSION FRANÇAISEGéométrie, pétrologie et croissance d'un laccolite peu profond : Le complexe ma- fique du Torres del Paine (Patagonie)Le Complexe Intrusif du Torres del Paine (CITP) est une intrusion bimodale, d'environ 70km2, appartenant à une chaîne de plutons Miocènes isolés, dans le sud de la Patago-nie. Leur position est intermédiaire entre le batholite patagonien calco-alcalin, à l'Ouest, mis en place au Mesozoïque-Cenozoïque dans un contexte de subduction, et les basal-tes andésitiques et trachybasaltes alcalins de plateau, plus jeune, à l'Est, lié à l'ouverture d'un arrière-arc.A son extrémité Est, le CITP est une succession de sills de gabbro à Hbl et de diorite, sur une épaisseur de ~250m, avec des évidences de mélange. Les contacts avec les sills de granite au-dessus, formant des parois de plus de 1000m, sont cassants. Ce laccolite est connecté, dans sa partie Ouest, à une zone d'alimentation, avec des intrusions sub-ver- ticales de gabbronorite litée et de gabbro à Hbl, en alternance. Celles-ci sont traversées et entourées par des diorites. Les zircons des gabbros de la zone d'alimentation, datés par ID-TIMS, ont cristallisés à 12.593±0.009Ma et 12.587±0.009Ma, ce qui correspond au plus vieux granite daté à ce jour par Michel et al. (2008). A l'inverse, les roches manques du laccolite se sont mises en place entre 12.472±0.009Ma et 12.431 ±0.006Ma, par sous-plaquage successifs à l'interface avec le granite le plus jeune daté à ce jour (12.50±0.02Ma).La séquence de cristallisation des gabbronorites est dominée par Ol, Plg, Cpx et Opx, alors que la Hbl est un cristal interstitiel. Elle est identique dans les gabbros à Hbl de la zone d'alimentation, avec ~30%vol de Hbl. Les gabbros de la zone d'alimentation montrent des anomalies positives en Eu et Sr distinctes. Dans le laccolite, le gabbro à Hbl inférieur évolue le long d'une série shoshonitique, riche en éléments incompatibles. Sa concentration en Al203, Ti02, Na20, K20, Ba et Sr est très variable et augmente rapide-ment jusqu'à ~50wt% Si02. Il est caractérisé par la présence de coeurs résorbés de kaer- sutite, entourés de Bt, et contenant des inclusions d'OI, Cpx et Opx, ou alors d'Ap et de rares Plg (An70). Hbl et Cpx ont cristallisés à partir d'un liquide de composition similaire aux dykes trachy-andesite basaltique du CITP. La matrice, cristallisée in-situ à partir d'un liquide pauvre en Ba et Sr, est composée d'oligoclase zoné de façon simple, de Mg-Hbl, Bt, llm ainsi que de rares Qtz et KF. Le gabbro à Hbl supérieur, quant à lui, appartient à une suite chimique calco-alcaline riche en K. Des coeurs poecilitiques de pargasite con-tiennent de nombreuses inclusions de Plg (An70) automorphe, ainsi que des Ol, Cpx et Opx. La composition de la matrice est identique à celle des gabbros à Hbl inférieurs et toutes deux sont similaires à la minéralogie des diorites. Les analyses sur roches totales de diorites montrent la même variabilité que celles de gabbros à Hbl, mais avec une ten-eur en Si02 plus élevée.La composition isotopique des liquides primitifs du CITP a été mesurée à 87Sr/86Sr=0.704, 143Nd/144Nd=0.5127, 206Pb/204Pb=18.70 et 207Pb/204Pb=15.65. Les granites et diorites différenciés peuvent être reliés à des cumulais gabbronoritiques (F=0.74 pour les granites et F=1-0.5 pour les diorites) et gabbroïques à Hbl (fractionnement supplémentaire pour les granites, avec F=0.3). La cristallisation de 20 à 50%vol de liquide interstitiel piégé dans les gabbros du CITP explique leur signature géochimique. Seules de faibles quantités de croûte continentale ont été assimilées. La température et la pression de fractionnement ont été estimées, sur la base des thermobaromètres Opx-Cpx, Hbl-Plg et Cpx, à plus de 900°C et une profondeur correspondant à la croûte inférieure-moyenne. A l'inverse, les conditions de cristallisation de la matrice des gabbros et diorites du laccolite ont été estimées à 790±60°C et ~0.7±0.5kbar.Je propose que les liquides felsiques du CITP se soient formés par cristallisation frac-tionnée en profondeur des assemblages minéralogiques observés dans les gabbros du CITP, à partir d'un liquide trachy-andesite basaltique. La percolation de magma dans les cristaux accumulés permet la remontée du mélange à travers la zone d'alimentation, vers le laccolite, où des sills se mettent en place successivement. L'amalgamation de sills dans le CITP a duré ~160ka.Le CITP s'est formé durant une reconfiguration importante du contexte géodynamique en Patagonie, avec un changement du magmatisme d'arc vers un volcanisme d'arrière- arc. Ce changement est certainement lié à la subduction de la ride du Chili.RESUME GRAND PUBLIC - VERSION FRANÇAISEGéométrie, pétrologie et croissance d'une chambre magmatique peu profonde : Le complexe mafique du Torres del Paine (Patagonie)Le pourtour de l'Océan Pacifique est caractérisé par une zone de convergence de plaques tectoniques, appelée zone de subduction, avec le plongement de croûte océa-nique sous les Andes dans le cas de la Patagonie. De nombreux volcans y sont associés, formant la ceinture de feu. Mais seuls quelques pourcents de tout le magma traversant la croûte terrestre parviennent à la surface et la majeure partie cristallise en profondeur, dans des chambres magmatiques. Quelles est leur forme, croissance, cristallisation et durée de vie ? Le complexe magmatique du Torres del Paine représente l'un des meilleurs endroits au monde pour répondre à ces questions. Il se situe au sud de la Patagonie, formant un massif de 70km2. Des réponses peuvent être trouvées à différentes échelles, variant de la montagne à des minéraux de quelques 1000ème de millimètres.Il est possible de distinguer trois types de roches : des gabbros et des diorites sur une épaisseur de 250m, surmontées par des parois de granite de plus de 1000m. Les contacts entre ces roches sont tous horizontaux. Entre granites et gabbro-diorite, le contact est net, indiquant que le second magma s'est mis en place au contact avec un magma plus ancien, totalement solidifié. Entre gabbros et diorites, les contacts sont diffus, souvent non-linéaires, indiquant à l'inverse la mise en contact de magmas encore partiellement liquides. Dans la partie Ouest de cette chambre magmatique, les contacts entre roches sont verticaux. Il s'agit certainement du lieu de remplissage de la chambre magmatique.Lors du refroidissement d'un magma, différents cristaux vont se former. Leur stabilité et leur composition varient en fonction de la pression, de la température ou de la chimie du magma. La séquence de cristallisation peut être définie sur la base d'observations microscopiques et de la composition chimique des minéraux. Différents gabbros sont ainsi distingués : le gabbro à la base est riche en hornblende, d'une taille de ~5mm, sans inclusion de plagioclase mais avec des cristaux d'olivine, clinopyroxene et orthopyroxene inclus ; le gabbro supérieur est lui-aussi riche en hornblende (~5mm), avec les mêmes inclusions additionnées de plagioclase. Ces cristaux se sont formés à une température supérieure à 900°C et une profondeur correspondant à la croûte moyenne ou inférieure. Les minéraux plus fin, se trouvant hors des cristaux de hornblende des deux gabbros, sont similaires à ceux des diorites : plagioclase, biotite, hornblende, apatite, quartz et feldspath alcalin. Ces minéraux sont caractéristiques des granites. Ils ont cristallisé à ~790°C et ~2km de profondeur.La cristallisation des minéraux et leur extraction du magma par gravité provoque un changement progressif de la composition de ce dernier. Ainsi, après extraction d'olivine et d'orthopyroxene riches en Mg, de clinopyroxene riche en Ca, de plagioclase riche en Ca et Al et d'hornblende riche en Ca, Al et Mg, le liquide final sera appauvri en ces élé-ments. Un lien peut ainsi être proposé entre les diorites dont la composition est proche du liquide de départ, les granites dont la composition est similaire au liquide final, et les gabbros dont la minéralogie correspond aux minéraux extraits.L'utilisation de zircons, un minéral riche en U dont les atomes se transforment en Pb par décomposition radioactive au cours de millions d'années, permet de dater le refroidissement des roches qui les contiennent. Ainsi, il a été observé que les roches de la zone d'alimentation, à l'Ouest du complexe magmatique, ont cristallisés il y a 12.59±0.01 Ma, en même temps que les granites les plus vieux, se trouvant au sommet de la chambre magmatique, datés par Michel et al. (2008). Les deux roches pourraient donc avoir la même origine. A l'inverse, les gabbros et diorites de la chambre magmatique ont cristallisé entre 12.47±0.01Ma et 12.43±0.01Ma, les roches les plus vieilles étant à la base.En comparant la composition des roches du Torres del Paine avec celles d'autres en-tités géologiques de Patagonie, les causes du magmatisme peuvent être recherchées. A l'Ouest, on trouve en effet des intrusions granitiques, plus anciennes, caractéristiques de zones de convergence de plaque tectonique, alors qu'à l'Est, des laves basaltiques plus jeunes sont caractéristiques d'une dynamique d'extension. Sur la base des compositions chimiques des roches de ces différentes entités, l'évolution progressive de l'une à l'autre a pu être démontrée. Elle est certainement due à l'arrivée d'une dorsale océanique (zone d'extension crustale et de création de croûte océanique par la remontée de magma) dans la zone de subduction, le long des Andes.Je propose que, dans un premier temps, des magmas granitiques sont remontés dans la chambre magmatique, laissant d'importants volumes de cristaux dans la croûte pro-fonde. Dans un second épisode, les cristaux formés en profondeur ont été transportés à travers la croûte continentale, suite au mélange avec un nouveau magma injecté. Ces magmas chargés de cristaux ont traversé la zone d'alimentation avant de s'injecter dans la chambre magmatique. Différents puises ont été distingués, injectés dans la chambre magmatique du sommet à la base concernant les granites, puis à la base du granite le plus jeune pour les gabbros et diorites. Le complexe magmatique du Torres del Paine s'est construit sur une période totale de 160'000±20'000 ans.

Modelling state dependence and feedback effects between poverty, employment and parental home emancipation among European youth

Youth is one of the phases in the life-cycle when some of the most decisivelife transitions take place. Entering the labour market or leaving parentalhome are events with important consequences for the economic well-beingof young adults. In this paper, the interrelationship between employment,residential emancipation and poverty dynamics is studied for eight Europeancountries by means of an econometric model with feedback effects. Resultsshow that youth poverty genuine state dependence is positive and highly significant.Evidence proves there is a strong causal effect between poverty andleaving home in Scandinavian countries, however, time in economic hardshipdoes not last long. In Southern Europe, instead, youth tend to leave theirparental home much later in order to avoid falling into a poverty state that ismore persistent. Past poverty has negative consequences on the likelihood ofemployment.

Demand for pharmaceutical drugs: A choice modelling experiment

Despite the importance of supplier inducement and brand loyalty inthe drug purchasing process, little empirical evidence is to be foundwith regard to the influence that these factors exert on patients decisions. Under the new scenario of easier access to information,patients are becoming more demanding and even go as far asquestioning their physicians prescription. Furthermore, newregulation also encourages patients to adopt an active role in thedecision between brand-name and generic drugs. Using a statedpreference model based on a choice survey, I have found evidenceof how significant physicians prescription and pharmacists recommendation become throughout the drug purchase process and,to what extent, brand loyalty influences the final decision. Asfar as we are aware, this paper is the first to explicitlytake consumers preferences into account rather than focusingon the behavior of health professionals.

How quickly should we titrate antihypertensive medication? Systematic review modelling blood pressure response from trial data.

Context There are no evidence syntheses available to guide clinicians on when to titrate antihypertensive medication after initiation. Objective To model the blood pressure (BP) response after initiating antihypertensive medication. Data sources electronic databases including Medline, Embase, Cochrane Register and reference lists up to December 2009. Study selection Trials that initiated antihypertensive medication as single therapy in hypertensive patients who were either drug naive or had a placebo washout from previous drugs. Data extraction Office BP measurements at a minimum of two weekly intervals for a minimum of 4 weeks. An asymptotic approach model of BP response was assumed and non-linear mixed effects modelling used to calculate model parameters. Results and conclusions Eighteen trials that recruited 4168 patients met inclusion criteria. The time to reach 50% of the maximum estimated BP lowering effect was 1 week (systolic 0.91 weeks, 95% CI 0.74 to 1.10; diastolic 0.95, 0.75 to 1.15). Models incorporating drug class as a source of variability did not improve fit of the data. Incorporating the presence of a titration schedule improved model fit for both systolic and diastolic pressure. Titration increased both the predicted maximum effect and the time taken to reach 50% of the maximum (systolic 1.2 vs 0.7 weeks; diastolic 1.4 vs 0.7 weeks). Conclusions Estimates of the maximum efficacy of antihypertensive agents can be made early after starting therapy. This knowledge will guide clinicians in deciding when a newly started antihypertensive agent is likely to be effective or not at controlling BP.