Independent at heart: persistent association of altitude with ischaemic heart disease mortality after consideration of climate, topography and built environment.

BACKGROUND Living at higher altitude was dose-dependently associated with lower risk of ischaemic heart disease (IHD). Higher altitudes have different climatic, topographic and built environment properties than lowland regions. It is unclear whether these environmental factors mediate/confound the association between altitude and IHD. We examined how much of the altitude-IHD association is explained by variations in exposure at place of residence to sunshine, temperature, precipitation, aspect, slope and distance to main road. METHODS We included 4.2 million individuals aged 40-84 at baseline living in Switzerland at altitudes 195-2971 m above sea level (ie, full range of residence), providing 77 127 IHD deaths. Mortality data 2000-2008, sociodemographic/economic information and coordinates of residence were obtained from the Swiss National Cohort, a longitudinal, census-based record linkage study. Environment information was modelled to residence level using Weibull regression models. RESULTS In the model not adjusted for other environmental factors, IHD mortality linearly decreased with increasing altitude resulting in a lower risk (HR, 95% CI 0.67, 0.60 to 0.74) for those living >1500 m (vs<600 m). This association remained after adjustment for all other environmental factors 0.74 (0.66 to 0.82). CONCLUSIONS The benefit of living at higher altitude was only partially confounded by variations in climate, topography and built environment. Rather, physical environment factors appear to have an independent effect and may impact on cardiovascular health in a cumulative way. Inclusion of additional modifiable factors as well as individual information on traditional IHD risk factors in our combined environmental model could help to identify strategies for the reduction of inequalities in IHD mortality.

Bargaining for power and information : an experimental and theoretical analysis of the interaction between institutions, externalities and adverse selection

Bargaining is the building block of many economic interactions, ranging from bilateral to multilateral encounters and from situations in which the actors are individuals to negotiations between firms or countries. In all these settings, economists have been intrigued for a long time by the fact that some projects, trades or agreements are not realized even though they are mutually beneficial. On the one hand, this has been explained by incomplete information. A firm may not be willing to offer a wage that is acceptable to a qualified worker, because it knows that there are also unqualified workers and cannot distinguish between the two types. This phenomenon is known as adverse selection. On the other hand, it has been argued that even with complete information, the presence of externalities may impede efficient outcomes. To see this, consider the example of climate change. If a subset of countries agrees to curb emissions, non-participant regions benefit from the signatories’ efforts without incurring costs. These free riding opportunities give rise to incentives to strategically improve ones bargaining power that work against the formation of a global agreement. This thesis is concerned with extending our understanding of both factors, adverse selection and externalities. The findings are based on empirical evidence from original laboratory experiments as well as game theoretic modeling. On a very general note, it is demonstrated that the institutions through which agents interact matter to a large extent. Insights are provided about which institutions we should expect to perform better than others, at least in terms of aggregate welfare. Chapters 1 and 2 focus on the problem of adverse selection. Effective operation of markets and other institutions often depends on good information transmission properties. In terms of the example introduced above, a firm is only willing to offer high wages if it receives enough positive signals about the worker’s quality during the application and wage bargaining process. In Chapter 1, it will be shown that repeated interaction coupled with time costs facilitates information transmission. By making the wage bargaining process costly for the worker, the firm is able to obtain more accurate information about the worker’s type. The cost could be pure time cost from delaying agreement or cost of effort arising from a multi-step interviewing process. In Chapter 2, I abstract from time cost and show that communication can play a similar role. The simple fact that a worker states to be of high quality may be informative. In Chapter 3, the focus is on a different source of inefficiency. Agents strive for bargaining power and thus may be motivated by incentives that are at odds with the socially efficient outcome. I have already mentioned the example of climate change. Other examples are coalitions within committees that are formed to secure voting power to block outcomes or groups that commit to different technological standards although a single standard would be optimal (e.g. the format war between HD and BlueRay). It will be shown that such inefficiencies are directly linked to the presence of externalities and a certain degree of irreversibility in actions. I now discuss the three articles in more detail. In Chapter 1, Olivier Bochet and I study a simple bilateral bargaining institution that eliminates trade failures arising from incomplete information. In this setting, a buyer makes offers to a seller in order to acquire a good. Whenever an offer is rejected by the seller, the buyer may submit a further offer. Bargaining is costly, because both parties suffer a (small) time cost after any rejection. The difficulties arise, because the good can be of low or high quality and the quality of the good is only known to the seller. Indeed, without the possibility to make repeated offers, it is too risky for the buyer to offer prices that allow for trade of high quality goods. When allowing for repeated offers, however, at equilibrium both types of goods trade with probability one. We provide an experimental test of these predictions. Buyers gather information about sellers using specific price offers and rates of trade are high, much as the model’s qualitative predictions. We also observe a persistent over-delay before trade occurs, and this mitigates efficiency substantially. Possible channels for over-delay are identified in the form of two behavioral assumptions missing from the standard model, loss aversion (buyers) and haggling (sellers), which reconcile the data with the theoretical predictions. Chapter 2 also studies adverse selection, but interaction between buyers and sellers now takes place within a market rather than isolated pairs. Remarkably, in a market it suffices to let agents communicate in a very simple manner to mitigate trade failures. The key insight is that better informed agents (sellers) are willing to truthfully reveal their private information, because by doing so they are able to reduce search frictions and attract more buyers. Behavior observed in the experimental sessions closely follows the theoretical predictions. As a consequence, costless and non-binding communication (cheap talk) significantly raises rates of trade and welfare. Previous experiments have documented that cheap talk alleviates inefficiencies due to asymmetric information. These findings are explained by pro-social preferences and lie aversion. I use appropriate control treatments to show that such consideration play only a minor role in our market. Instead, the experiment highlights the ability to organize markets as a new channel through which communication can facilitate trade in the presence of private information. In Chapter 3, I theoretically explore coalition formation via multilateral bargaining under complete information. The environment studied is extremely rich in the sense that the model allows for all kinds of externalities. This is achieved by using so-called partition functions, which pin down a coalitional worth for each possible coalition in each possible coalition structure. It is found that although binding agreements can be written, efficiency is not guaranteed, because the negotiation process is inherently non-cooperative. The prospects of cooperation are shown to crucially depend on i) the degree to which players can renegotiate and gradually build up agreements and ii) the absence of a certain type of externalities that can loosely be described as incentives to free ride. Moreover, the willingness to concede bargaining power is identified as a novel reason for gradualism. Another key contribution of the study is that it identifies a strong connection between the Core, one of the most important concepts in cooperative game theory, and the set of environments for which efficiency is attained even without renegotiation.

Development of a Novel Rabies Simulation Model for Application in a Non-endemic Environment.

Domestic dog rabies is an endemic disease in large parts of the developing world and also epidemic in previously free regions. For example, it continues to spread in eastern Indonesia and currently threatens adjacent rabies-free regions with high densities of free-roaming dogs, including remote northern Australia. Mathematical and simulation disease models are useful tools to provide insights on the most effective control strategies and to inform policy decisions. Existing rabies models typically focus on long-term control programs in endemic countries. However, simulation models describing the dog rabies incursion scenario in regions where rabies is still exotic are lacking. We here describe such a stochastic, spatially explicit rabies simulation model that is based on individual dog information collected in two remote regions in northern Australia. Illustrative simulations produced plausible results with epidemic characteristics expected for rabies outbreaks in disease free regions (mean R0 1.7, epidemic peak 97 days post-incursion, vaccination as the most effective response strategy). Systematic sensitivity analysis identified that model outcomes were most sensitive to seven of the 30 model parameters tested. This model is suitable for exploring rabies spread and control before an incursion in populations of largely free-roaming dogs that live close together with their owners. It can be used for ad-hoc contingency or response planning prior to and shortly after incursion of dog rabies in previously free regions. One challenge that remains is model parameterisation, particularly how dogs' roaming and contacts and biting behaviours change following a rabies incursion in a previously rabies free population.

Fine-grained Indoor Tracking by Fusing Inertial Sensor and Physical Layer Information in WLANs

Indoor positioning has become an emerging research area because of huge commercial demands for location-based services in indoor environments. Channel State Information (CSI) as fine-grained physical layer information has been recently proposed to achieve high positioning accuracy by using range based methods, e.g., trilateration. In this work, we propose to fuse the CSI-based ranging and velocity estimated from inertial sensors by an enhanced particle filter to achieve highly accurate tracking. The algorithm relies on some enhanced ranging methods and further mitigates the remaining ranging errors by a weighting technique. Additionally, we provide an efficient method to estimate the velocity based on inertial sensors. The algorithms are designed in a network-based system, which uses rather cheap commercial devices as anchor nodes. We evaluate our system in a complex environment along three different moving paths. Our proposed tracking method can achieve 1.3m for mean accuracy and 2.2m for 90% accuracy, which is more accurate and stable than pedestrian dead reckoning and range-based positioning.

Zoning and the built environment: A public health analysis of zoning in Austin, Texas

The built environment is part of the physical environment made by people and for people. Because the built environment is such a ubiquitous component of the environment, it acts as an important pathway in determining health outcomes. Zoning, a type of urban planning policy, is one of the most important mechanisms connecting the built environment to public health. This policy analysis research paper explores how zoning regulations in Austin, Texas promote or prohibit the development of a healthy built environment. A systematic literature review was obtained from Active Living Research, which contained literature published about the relationships between the built environment, physical activity, and health. The results of these studies identified the following four components of the built environment that were associated to health: access to recreational facilities, sprawl and residential density, land use mix, and sidewalks and their walkability. A hierarchy analysis was then performed to demonstrate the association between these aspects of the built environment and health outcomes such as obesity, cardiovascular disease, and general health. Once these associations had been established, the components of the built environment were adapted into the evaluation criteria used to conduct a public health analysis of Austin's zoning ordinance. A total of eighty-eight regulations were identified to be related to these components and their varying associations to human health. Eight regulations were projected to have a negative association to health, three would have both a positive and negative association simultaneously, and nine were indeterminable with the information obtained through the literature review. The remaining sixty-eight regulations were projected to be associated in a beneficial manner to human health. Therefore, it was concluded that Austin's zoning ordinance would have an overwhelmingly positive impact on the public's health based on identified associations between the built environment and health outcomes.^

Achieving effective biosurveillance with the Nationwide Health Information Network

The federal government is currently developing the Nationwide Health Information Network (NHIN). Described as a “network of networks,” the NHIN seeks to provide a nationwide, interoperable health information infrastructure that will securely connect consumers with those involved in health care. As part of the national health information technology (HIT) agenda, the NHIN aims to improve individual and population health by enabling health information to follow the consumer, be available for clinical decision-making, and support important public health measures such as biosurveillance. While the NHIN promises to improve clinical care to individuals and to reduce U.S. health care system costs overall, this electronic environment presents novel challenges for protecting individually identifiable health information. A major barrier to achieving public trust in the NHIN is the development of, and adherence to, a consistent and coordinated approach to privacy and security of health information. This paper will analyze the policy framework for electronic health information exchange with the NHIN. This exercise will demonstrate that the current policy is an effective framework for achieving effective biosurveillance with the NHIN. ^

DISEASE-RELATED INFORMATION NEEDS OF CANCER PATIENTS AGES 11-20: A COMPARISON OF PATIENT-PARENT AND PATIENT-PHYSICIAN PERCEPTIONS

Innovative, aggressive treatments and prolonged survival rates for patients with childhood cancers have placed new demands on the patient, parent and physician. As a result, counterproductive coping behaviors are often noted in adolescent cancer patients.^ One of the main ways the environment is manipulated by the individual to achieve personal comfort is through selectivity of information. An individual will usually pull the support personally needed to cope from the environment if sufficient resources are available. However, information provided young cancer patients is often filtered through the physicians and parents perspectives of the patient's needs without systematic input from the patient. In order to ensure that adequate information resources are available to help teenage patients cope with their illness, health professionals must have insights into the information needs of those patients. No previous efforts to address this subject were found in the literature.^ This study was designed to identify adolescent perspectives of their disease-related information needs and to compare their viewpoints with those of their parents and physicians. Sixty-five outpatient cancer patients (ages 11-20) receiving treatment at the University of Texas M. D. Anderson Hospital and Tumor Institute in Houston, Texas, 60 of their parents, and 53 physicians, who were involved in the treatment of pediatric patients at M. D. Anderson, were asked to complete self-administered questionnaires. The questionnaires used were developed, administered and analyzed by the investigator. Specific areas addressed in the questionnaires included: Perceptions of cancer-related tests and treatments, the importance of 30 disease-related items of information, responses evoked by receipt of information, current and preferred sources of information, delivery of information at the time of diagnosis, and disease-related information requested for patients, family, friends and teachers.^ Adolescent perceptions of their information needs and their preferences for delivery of information were determined. The relationships between patient-parent and patient-physician perceptions were then analyzed to determine areas in which agreements and disparities in viewpoint existed. Programmatic and research recommendations were then provided.^ Hopefully, through these efforts, the adolescent patient will be helped to receive relevant information support from those deemed to be most important to his/her efforts to cope with cancer. ^

Objective assessment of the built environment and its relationship to physical activity and obesity

The role of physical activity in the promotion of individual and population health has been well documented in research and policy publications. Significant research activities have produced compelling evidence for the support of the positive association between physical activity and improved health. Despite the knowledge about these public health benefits of physical activity, over half of US adults do not engage in physical activity at levels consistent with public health recommendations. Just as physical inactivity is of significant public health concern in the US, the prevalence of obesity (and its attendant co-morbidities) is also increasing among US adults.^ Research suggests racial and ethnic disparities relevant to physical inactivity and obesity in the US. Various studies have shown more favorable outcomes among non-Hispanic whites when compared to other minority groups as far as physical activity and obesity are concerned. The health disparity issue is especially important because Mexican-Americans who are the fastest growing segment of the US population are disproportionately affected by physical inactivity and obesity by a significant margin (when compared to non-Hispanic whites), so addressing the physical inactivity and obesity issues in this group is of significant public health concern. ^ Although the evidence for health benefits of physical activity is substantial, various research questions remain on the potential motivators for engaging in physical activity. One area of emerging interest is the potential role that the built environment may play in facilitating or inhibiting physical activity.^ In this study, based on an ongoing research project of the Department of Epidemiology at the University of Texas M. D. Anderson Cancer Center, we examined the built environment, measured objectively through the use of geographical information systems (GIS), and its association with physical activity and obesity among a cohort of Mexican- Americans living in Harris County, Texas. The overall study hypothesis was that residing in dense and highly connected neighborhoods with mixed land-use is associated with residents’ increased participation in physical activity and lowered prevalence of obesity. We completed the following specific aims: (1) to generate a land-use profile of the study area and create a “walkability index” measure for each block group within the study area; (2) to compare the level of engagement in physical activity between study participants that reside in high walkability index block groups and those from low walkability block groups; (3) to compare the prevalence of obesity between study participants that reside in high walkability index block groups and those from low walkability block groups. ^ We successfully created the walkability index as a form of objective measure of the built environment for portions of Harris County, Texas. We used a variety of spatial and non-spatial dataset to generate the so called walkability index. We are not aware of previous scholastic work of this kind (construction of walkability index) in the Houston area. Our findings from the assessment of relationships among walkability index, physical activity and obesity suggest the following, that: (1) that attempts to convert people to being walkers through health promotion activities may be much easier in high-walkability neighborhoods, and very hard in low-walkability neighborhoods. Therefore, health promotion activities to get people to be active may require supportive environment, walkable in this case, and may not succeed otherwise; and (2) Overall, among individuals with less education, those in the high walkability index areas may be less obese (extreme) than those in the low walkability area. To the extent that this association can be substantiated, we – public health practitioners, urban designers, and policy experts – we may need to start thinking about ways to “retrofit” existing urban forms to conform to more walkable neighborhoods. Also, in this population especially, there may be the need to focus special attention on those with lower educational attainment.^

BAYESIAN STATISTICAL METHODS IN GENE-ENVIRONMENT AND GENE-GENE INTERACTION STUDIES

Complex diseases such as cancer result from multiple genetic changes and environmental exposures. Due to the rapid development of genotyping and sequencing technologies, we are now able to more accurately assess causal effects of many genetic and environmental factors. Genome-wide association studies have been able to localize many causal genetic variants predisposing to certain diseases. However, these studies only explain a small portion of variations in the heritability of diseases. More advanced statistical models are urgently needed to identify and characterize some additional genetic and environmental factors and their interactions, which will enable us to better understand the causes of complex diseases. In the past decade, thanks to the increasing computational capabilities and novel statistical developments, Bayesian methods have been widely applied in the genetics/genomics researches and demonstrating superiority over some regular approaches in certain research areas. Gene-environment and gene-gene interaction studies are among the areas where Bayesian methods may fully exert its functionalities and advantages. This dissertation focuses on developing new Bayesian statistical methods for data analysis with complex gene-environment and gene-gene interactions, as well as extending some existing methods for gene-environment interactions to other related areas. It includes three sections: (1) Deriving the Bayesian variable selection framework for the hierarchical gene-environment and gene-gene interactions; (2) Developing the Bayesian Natural and Orthogonal Interaction (NOIA) models for gene-environment interactions; and (3) extending the applications of two Bayesian statistical methods which were developed for gene-environment interaction studies, to other related types of studies such as adaptive borrowing historical data. We propose a Bayesian hierarchical mixture model framework that allows us to investigate the genetic and environmental effects, gene by gene interactions (epistasis) and gene by environment interactions in the same model. It is well known that, in many practical situations, there exists a natural hierarchical structure between the main effects and interactions in the linear model. Here we propose a model that incorporates this hierarchical structure into the Bayesian mixture model, such that the irrelevant interaction effects can be removed more efficiently, resulting in more robust, parsimonious and powerful models. We evaluate both of the 'strong hierarchical' and 'weak hierarchical' models, which specify that both or one of the main effects between interacting factors must be present for the interactions to be included in the model. The extensive simulation results show that the proposed strong and weak hierarchical mixture models control the proportion of false positive discoveries and yield a powerful approach to identify the predisposing main effects and interactions in the studies with complex gene-environment and gene-gene interactions. We also compare these two models with the 'independent' model that does not impose this hierarchical constraint and observe their superior performances in most of the considered situations. The proposed models are implemented in the real data analysis of gene and environment interactions in the cases of lung cancer and cutaneous melanoma case-control studies. The Bayesian statistical models enjoy the properties of being allowed to incorporate useful prior information in the modeling process. Moreover, the Bayesian mixture model outperforms the multivariate logistic model in terms of the performances on the parameter estimation and variable selection in most cases. Our proposed models hold the hierarchical constraints, that further improve the Bayesian mixture model by reducing the proportion of false positive findings among the identified interactions and successfully identifying the reported associations. This is practically appealing for the study of investigating the causal factors from a moderate number of candidate genetic and environmental factors along with a relatively large number of interactions. The natural and orthogonal interaction (NOIA) models of genetic effects have previously been developed to provide an analysis framework, by which the estimates of effects for a quantitative trait are statistically orthogonal regardless of the existence of Hardy-Weinberg Equilibrium (HWE) within loci. Ma et al. (2012) recently developed a NOIA model for the gene-environment interaction studies and have shown the advantages of using the model for detecting the true main effects and interactions, compared with the usual functional model. In this project, we propose a novel Bayesian statistical model that combines the Bayesian hierarchical mixture model with the NOIA statistical model and the usual functional model. The proposed Bayesian NOIA model demonstrates more power at detecting the non-null effects with higher marginal posterior probabilities. Also, we review two Bayesian statistical models (Bayesian empirical shrinkage-type estimator and Bayesian model averaging), which were developed for the gene-environment interaction studies. Inspired by these Bayesian models, we develop two novel statistical methods that are able to handle the related problems such as borrowing data from historical studies. The proposed methods are analogous to the methods for the gene-environment interactions on behalf of the success on balancing the statistical efficiency and bias in a unified model. By extensive simulation studies, we compare the operating characteristics of the proposed models with the existing models including the hierarchical meta-analysis model. The results show that the proposed approaches adaptively borrow the historical data in a data-driven way. These novel models may have a broad range of statistical applications in both of genetic/genomic and clinical studies.

Palynology, source vegetation, environment and age of ODP Site 188-1166 sediments

Twenty-three core catcher samples from Site 1166 (Hole 1166A) in Prydz Bay were analyzed for their palynomorph content, with the aims of determining the ages of the sequence penetrated, providing information on the vegetation of the Antarctic continent at this time, and determining the environments under which deposition occurred. Dinocysts, pollen and spores, and foraminiferal test linings were recovered from most samples in the interval from 142.5 to 362.03 meters below seafloor (mbsf). The interval from 142.5 to 258.72 mbsf yielded palynomorphs indicative of a middle-late Eocene age, equivalent to the lower-middle Nothofagidites asperus Zone of the Gippsland Basin of southeastern Australia. The Prydz Bay sequence represents the first well-dated section of this age from East Antarctica. Dinocysts belonging to the widespread "Transantarctic Flora" give a more confident late Eocene age for the interval 142.5-220.5 mbsf. The uppermost two cores within this interval, namely, those from 142.5 and 148.36 mbsf, show significantly higher frequencies of dinocysts than the cores below and suggest that an open marine environment prevailed at the time of deposition. The spore and pollen component may reflect a vegetation akin to the modern rainforest scrubs of Tasmania and New Zealand. Below 267 mbsf, sparse microfloras, mainly of spores and pollen, are equated with the Phyllocladidites mawsonii Zone of southeastern Australia, which is of Turonian to possibly Santonian age. Fluvial to marginal marine environments of deposition are suggested. The parent vegetation from this interval is here described as "Austral Conifer Woodland." The same Late Cretaceous microflora occurs in two of the cores above the postulated unconformity at 267 mbsf. In the core at 249.42 mbsf, the Late Cretaceous spores and pollen are uncontaminated by any Tertiary forms, suggesting that a clast of this older material has been sampled; such a clast may reflect transport by ice during the Eocene. At 258.72 mbsf, Late Cretaceous spores and pollen appear to have been recycled into the Eocene sediments.

The environment dimension of food supply chain analysis

The paper reviews relevant literature studying the environmental impacts of food supply chain from production to each stage throughout the supply chain. With limited data and information, to better understand these impacts, a concrete example of the tea supply chain in China is provided. The tea supply chain is analyzed from the environmental prospective, with potential pollutants being identified at each stage of the supply chain. As an example of the food supply chain in a developing country, some unique features of the developing economies are taken into consideration when concluding the implications.

How does firm heterogeneity information impact the estimation of embodied carbon emissions in Chinese exports?

Using an augmented Chinese input–output table in which information about firm ownership and type of traded goods are explicitly reported, we show that ignoring firm heterogeneity causes embodied CO2 emissions in Chinese exports to be overestimated by 20% at the national level, with huge differences at the sector level, for 2007. This is because different types of firm that are allocated to the same sector of the conventional Chinese input–output table vary greatly in terms of market share, production technology and carbon intensity. This overestimation of export-related carbon emissions would be even higher if it were not for the fact that 80% of CO2 emissions embodied in exports of foreign-owned firms are, in fact, emitted by Chinese-owned firms upstream of the supply chain. The main reason is that the largest CO2 emitter, the electricity sector located upstream in Chinese domestic supply chains, is strongly dominated by Chinese-owned firms with very high carbon intensity.

Modelling the Impact of Built Environment, Geographical Scales and Latent Constructs On Individual Travel Behaviour

La relación entre la estructura urbana y la movilidad ha sido estudiada desde hace más de 70 años. El entorno urbano incluye múltiples dimensiones como por ejemplo: la estructura urbana, los usos de suelo, la distribución de instalaciones diversas (comercios, escuelas y zonas de restauración, parking, etc.). Al realizar una revisión de la literatura existente en este contexto, se encuentran distintos análisis, metodologías, escalas geográficas y dimensiones, tanto de la movilidad como de la estructura urbana. En este sentido, se trata de una relación muy estudiada pero muy compleja, sobre la que no existe hasta el momento un consenso sobre qué dimensión del entorno urbano influye sobre qué dimensión de la movilidad, y cuál es la manera apropiada de representar esta relación. Con el propósito de contestar estas preguntas investigación, la presente tesis tiene los siguientes objetivos generales: (1) Contribuir al mejor entendimiento de la compleja relación estructura urbana y movilidad. y (2) Entender el rol de los atributos latentes en la relación entorno urbano y movilidad. El objetivo específico de la tesis es analizar la influencia del entorno urbano sobre dos dimensiones de la movilidad: número de viajes y tipo de tour. Vista la complejidad de la relación entorno urbano y movilidad, se pretende contribuir al mejor entendimiento de la relación a través de la utilización de 3 escalas geográficas de las variables y del análisis de la influencia de efectos inobservados en la movilidad. Para el análisis se utiliza una base de datos conformada por tres tipos de datos: (1) Una encuesta de movilidad realizada durante los años 2006 y 2007. Se obtuvo un total de 943 encuestas, en 3 barrios de Madrid: Chamberí, Pozuelo y Algete. (2) Información municipal del Instituto Nacional de Estadística: dicha información se encuentra enlazada con los orígenes y destinos de los viajes recogidos en la encuesta. Y (3) Información georeferenciada en Arc-GIS de los hogares participantes en la encuesta: la base de datos contiene información respecto a la estructura de las calles, localización de escuelas, parking, centros médicos y lugares de restauración. Se analizó la correlación entre e intra-grupos y se modelizaron 4 casos de atributos bajo la estructura ordinal logit. Posteriormente se evalúa la auto-selección a través de la estimación conjunta de las elecciones de tipo de barrio y número de viajes. La elección del tipo de barrio consta de 3 alternativas: CBD, Urban y Suburban, según la zona de residencia recogida en las encuestas. Mientras que la elección del número de viajes consta de 4 categorías ordinales: 0 viajes, 1-2 viajes, 3-4 viajes y 5 o más viajes. A partir de la mejor especificación del modelo ordinal logit. Se desarrolló un modelo joint mixed-ordinal conjunto. Los resultados indican que las variables exógenas requieren un análisis exhaustivo de correlaciones con el fin de evitar resultados sesgados. ha determinado que es importante medir los atributos del BE donde se realiza el viaje, pero también la información municipal es muy explicativa de la movilidad individual. Por tanto, la percepción de las zonas de destino a nivel municipal es considerada importante. En el contexto de la Auto-selección (self-selection) es importante modelizar conjuntamente las decisiones. La Auto-selección existe, puesto que los parámetros estimados conjuntamente son significativos. Sin embargo, sólo ciertos atributos del entorno urbano son igualmente importantes sobre la elección de la zona de residencia y frecuencia de viajes. Para analizar la Propensión al Viaje, se desarrolló un modelo híbrido, formado por: una variable latente, un indicador y un modelo de elección discreta. La variable latente se denomina “Propensión al Viaje”, cuyo indicador en ecuación de medida es el número de viajes; la elección discreta es el tipo de tour. El modelo de elección consiste en 5 alternativas, según la jerarquía de actividades establecida en la tesis: HOME, no realiza viajes durante el día de estudio, HWH tour cuya actividad principal es el trabajo o estudios, y no se realizan paradas intermedias; HWHs tour si el individuo reaiza paradas intermedias; HOH tour cuya actividad principal es distinta a trabajo y estudios, y no se realizan paradas intermedias; HOHs donde se realizan paradas intermedias. Para llegar a la mejor especificación del modelo, se realizó un trabajo importante considerando diferentes estructuras de modelos y tres tipos de estimaciones. De tal manera, se obtuvieron parámetros consistentes y eficientes. Los resultados muestran que la modelización de los tours, representa una ventaja sobre la modelización de los viajes, puesto que supera las limitaciones de espacio y tiempo, enlazando los viajes realizados por la misma persona en el día de estudio. La propensión al viaje (PT) existe y es específica para cada tipo de tour. Los parámetros estimados en el modelo híbrido resultaron significativos y distintos para cada alternativa de tipo de tour. Por último, en la tesis se verifica que los modelos híbridos representan una mejora sobre los modelos tradicionales de elección discreta, dando como resultado parámetros consistentes y más robustos. En cuanto a políticas de transporte, se ha demostrado que los atributos del entorno urbano son más importantes que los LOS (Level of Service) en la generación de tours multi-etapas. la presente tesis representa el primer análisis empírico de la relación entre los tipos de tours y la propensión al viaje. El concepto Propensity to Travel ha sido desarrollado exclusivamente para la tesis. Igualmente, el desarrollo de un modelo conjunto RC-Number of trips basado en tres escalas de medida representa innovación en cuanto a la comparación de las escalas geográficas, que no había sido hecha en la modelización de la self-selection. The relationship between built environment (BE) and travel behaviour (TB) has been studied in a number of cases, using several methods - aggregate and disaggregate approaches - and different focuses – trip frequency, automobile use, and vehicle miles travelled and so on. Definitely, travel is generated by the need to undertake activities and obtain services, and there is a general consensus that urban components affect TB. However researches are still needed to better understand which components of the travel behaviour are affected most and by which of the urban components. In order to fill the gap in the research, the present dissertation faced two main objectives: (1) To contribute to the better understanding of the relationship between travel demand and urban environment. And (2) To develop an econometric model for estimating travel demand with urban environment attributes. With this purpose, the present thesis faced an exhaustive research and computation of land-use variables in order to find the best representation of BE for modelling trip frequency. In particular two empirical analyses are carried out: 1. Estimation of three dimensions of travel demand using dimensions of urban environment. We compare different travel dimensions and geographical scales, and we measure self-selection contribution following the joint models. 2. Develop a hybrid model, integrated latent variable and discrete choice model. The implementation of hybrid models is new in the analysis of land-use and travel behaviour. BE and TB explicitly interact and allow richness information about a specific individual decision process For all empirical analysis is used a data-base from a survey conducted in 2006 and 2007 in Madrid. Spatial attributes describing neighbourhood environment are derived from different data sources: National Institute of Statistics-INE (Administrative: municipality and district) and GIS (circular units). INE provides raw data for such spatial units as: municipality and district. The construction of census units is trivial as the census bureau provides tables that readily define districts and municipalities. The construction of circular units requires us to determine the radius and associate the spatial information to our households. The first empirical part analyzes trip frequency by applying an ordered logit model. In this part is studied the effect of socio-economic, transport and land use characteristics on two travel dimensions: trip frequency and type of tour. In particular the land use is defined in terms of type of neighbourhoods and types of dwellers. Three neighbourhood representations are explored, and described three for constructing neighbourhood attributes. In particular administrative units are examined to represent neighbourhood and circular – unit representation. Ordered logit models are applied, while ordinal logit models are well-known, an intensive work for constructing a spatial attributes was carried out. On the other hand, the second empirical analysis consists of the development of an innovative econometric model that considers a latent variable called “propensity to travel”, and choice model is the choice of type of tour. The first two specifications of ordinal models help to estimate this latent variable. The latent variable is unobserved but the manifestation is called “indicators”, then the probability of choosing an alternative of tour is conditional to the probability of latent variable and type of tour. Since latent variable is unknown we fit the integral over its distribution. Four “sets of best variables” are specified, following the specification obtained from the correlation analysis. The results evidence that the relative importance of SE variables versus BE variables depends on how BE variables are measured. We found that each of these three spatial scales has its intangible qualities and drawbacks. Spatial scales play an important role on predicting travel demand due to the variability in measures at trip origin/destinations within the same administrative unit (municipality, district and so on). Larger units will produce less variation in data; but it does not affect certain variables, such as public transport supply, that are more significant at municipality level. By contrast, land-use measures are more efficient at district level. Self-selection in this context, is weak. Thus, the influence of BE attributes is true. The results of the hybrid model show that unobserved factors affect the choice of tour complexity. The latent variable used in this model is propensity to travel that is explained by socioeconomic aspects and neighbourhood attributes. The results show that neighbourhood attributes have indeed a significant impact on the choice of the type of tours either directly and through the propensity to travel. The propensity to travel has a different impact depending on the structure of each tour and increases the probability of choosing more complex tours, such as tours with many intermediate stops. The integration of choice and latent variable model shows that omitting important perception and attitudes leads to inconsistent estimates. The results also indicate that goodness of fit improves by adding the latent variable in both sequential and simultaneous estimation. There are significant differences in the sensitivity to the latent variable across alternatives. In general, as expected, the hybrid models show a major improvement into the goodness of fit of the model, compared to a classical discrete choice model that does not incorporate latent effects. The integrated model leads to a more detailed analysis of the behavioural process. Summarizing, the effect that built environment characteristics on trip frequency studied is deeply analyzed. In particular we tried to better understand how land use characteristics can be defined and measured and which of these measures do have really an impact on trip frequency. We also tried to test the superiority of HCM on this field. We can concluded that HCM shows a major improvement into the goodness of fit of the model, compared to classical discrete choice model that does not incorporate latent effects. And consequently, the application of HCM shows the importance of LV on the decision of tour complexity. People are more elastic to built environment attributes than level of services. Thus, policy implications must take place to develop more mixed areas, work-places in combination with commercial retails.

A Model-Based Monitoring Architecture for Heterogeneous Enterprise Services and Information Systems

Runtime management of distributed information systems is a complex and costly activity. One of the main challenges that must be addressed is obtaining a complete and updated view of all the managed runtime resources. This article presents a monitoring architecture for heterogeneous and distributed information systems. It is composed of two elements: an information model and an agent infrastructure. The model negates the complexity and variability of these systems and enables the abstraction over non-relevant details. The infrastructure uses this information model to monitor and manage the modeled environment, performing and detecting changes in execution time. The agents infrastructure is further detailed and its components and the relationships between them are explained. Moreover, the proposal is validated through a set of agents that instrument the JEE Glassfish application server, paying special attention to support distributed configuration scenarios.

Knowledge Management and Information Systems based on Workflow Technology

Knowledge management is critical for the success of virtual communities, especially in the case of distributed working groups. A representative example of this scenario is the distributed software development, where it is necessary an optimal coordination to avoid common problems such as duplicated work. In this paper the feasibility of using the workflow technology as a knowledge management system is discussed, and a practical use case is presented. This use case is an information system that has been deployed within a banking environment. It combines common workflow technology with a new conception of the interaction among participants through the extension of existing definition languages.