The zero-inflated Conway-Maxwell-Poisson distribution: Bayesian inference, regression modeling and influence diagnostic

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Cultura corporal e educação informal indígena

Não disponível.

Indicadores de qualidade e composição de leite informal comercializado na região Sudeste do Estado de São Paulo

The informal milk is recognized as the product marketed without inspection. We evaluated the microbiological quality, nutritional ingredients and substances inhibiting bacterial growth in 100 informal samples from cows milk, marketed in the southwest region of the state of Sao Paulo, Brazil. It was found that 77% of Somatic Cell Count (SCC) and 86% of Total Bacterial Count (TBC) of the samples were at odds with the maximum values required by Instruction Rules 62 of the Ministry of Agriculture and Livestock Supply. It was identified to solids contents in disagreement (36%), protein (23%), fat (38%), nonfat dry extract (43%) and 73% urea nitrogen. In 59% of the samples was detected residues of the bacterial growth inhibitors. Were isolated 240 strains of micro-organisms with a prevalence of enterobacteria, streptococci, staphylococci and fungi. The informal milk is marketed in the region without the minimum hygienic conditions and present risks to public health, and represents serious socio-economic problem for the region.

Genome-wide association study of reproductive traits in Nellore heifers using Bayesian inference

An important goal of Zebu breeding programs is to improve reproductive performance. A major problem faced with the genetic improvement of reproductive traits is that recording the time for an animal to reach sexual maturity is costly. Another issue is that accurate estimates of breeding values are obtained only a long time after the young bulls have gone through selection. An alternative to overcome these problems is to use traits that are indicators of the reproductive efficiency of the herd and are easier to measure, such as age at first calving. Another problem is that heifers that have conceived once may fail to conceive in the next breeding season, which increases production costs. Thus, increasing heifer's rebreeding rates should improve the economic efficiency of the herd. Response to selection for these traits tends to be slow, since they have a low heritability and phenotypic information is provided only later in the life of the animal. Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) are useful to investigate the genetic mechanisms that underlie these traits by identifying the genes and metabolic pathways involved. Data from 1853 females belonging to the Agricultural Jacarezinho LTDA were used. Genotyping was performed using the BovineHD BeadChip (777 962 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs)) according to the protocol of Illumina - Infinium Assay II ® Multi-Sample HiScan with the unit SQ ™ System. After quality control, 305 348 SNPs were used for GWAS. Forty-two and 19 SNPs had a Bayes factor greater than 150 for heifer rebreeding and age at first calving, respectively. All significant SNPs for age at first calving were significant for heifer rebreeding. These 42 SNPs were next or within 35 genes that were distributed over 18 chromosomes and comprised 27 protein-encoding genes, six pseudogenes and two miscellaneous noncoding RNAs. The use of Bayes factor to determine the significance of SNPs allowed us to identify two sets of 42 and 19 significant SNPs for heifer rebreeding and age at first calving, respectively, which explain 11.35 % and 6.42 % of their phenotypic variance, respectively. These SNPs provide relevant information to help elucidate which genes affect these traits.

Consumo de leite informal na cidade de Araraquara-SP

Brazil is one of the largest milk producers in the world, with an estimated total production of 37 billion liters in 2014. Of this total, 33% is not inspected, being destined for the informal market. Objective: The aim of this study was to collect and analyze data on raw milk consumption in the city of Araraquara (SP, Brazil). Methods: Regular milk consumers were provided with exploratory questionnaires in locations chosen for convenience. The reproducibility of each question was tested by Kappa statistics. Associations of interest were 2 detected by the chi-squared (χ ) or Fisher's exact test. Statistical significance was established when p0.05. Results: Most of the volunteers (97.6%) reported consuming milk daily, the type of milk chosen most, mainly for ease of purchase, being boxed UHT. Regarding raw milk, 15.3% of volunteers said they consume it, the greatest consumption being observed among subjects with complete secondary or higher education. The majority of the participants reported knowing of the possibility of diseases being transmitted by unprocessed milk. Most respondents pointed to "flavor" as the main reason for consumption. Only 15.3% reported that someone in their house had become ill from drinking milk, and only 4.1% attributed this to the ingestion of raw milk. Conclusion: It was found that 15.3% of consumers drink raw milk in the city of Araraquara, which is more than the expected proportion in a medium sized city located in the state of São Paulo.

O papel do ensino informal de ciências: uma análise sobre o impacto do show de energia sobre o interesse dos alunos para cursos das áreas de ciências exatas

Our work aims to discuss the teaching of science in the context of informal education. Thus, we present and analyze the results of an initiative that we have made seeking to interest high school students to study sciences and technology. The Energy shows are activities which are presented in experimental demonstrations of science concepts to middle school students. After the show the students respond to a questionnaire which formed the basis for this study. The results indicate that the achievement of shows have had an impact on students.

Artesanato como exemplo de trabalho informal em uma região econômica periférica: uma análise geográfica do aglomerado produtivo de palhas e bordados da região norte do Piauí

Pós-graduação em Geografia - IGCE

A Model-Based Approach for Making Ecological Inference from Distance Sampling Data

We consider a fully model-based approach for the analysis of distance sampling data. Distance sampling has been widely used to estimate abundance (or density) of animals or plants in a spatially explicit study area. There is, however, no readily available method of making statistical inference on the relationships between abundance and environmental covariates. Spatial Poisson process likelihoods can be used to simultaneously estimate detection and intensity parameters by modeling distance sampling data as a thinned spatial point process. A model-based spatial approach to distance sampling data has three main benefits: it allows complex and opportunistic transect designs to be employed, it allows estimation of abundance in small subregions, and it provides a framework to assess the effects of habitat or experimental manipulation on density. We demonstrate the model-based methodology with a small simulation study and analysis of the Dubbo weed data set. In addition, a simple ad hoc method for handling overdispersion is also proposed. The simulation study showed that the model-based approach compared favorably to conventional distance sampling methods for abundance estimation. In addition, the overdispersion correction performed adequately when the number of transects was high. Analysis of the Dubbo data set indicated a transect effect on abundance via Akaike’s information criterion model selection. Further goodness-of-fit analysis, however, indicated some potential confounding of intensity with the detection function.

BLACKBIRD DAMAGE AND CONTROL--AN INFORMAL SEMINAR

The object is to hash over a few problems as we see them on this red-winged blackbird situation. I'm Mel Dyer, University of Guelph, Guelph, Ontario. Around the table are Tom Stockdale, Extension Wildlife Specialist, Ohio Cooperative Extension Service, Columbus; Maurice Giltz, Ohio Agriculture Research and Development Center, Wooster, Ohio; Joe Halusky, U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, Columbus, Ohio; Daniel Stiles, U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, Washington, D.C.; Paul Rodeheffer, U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, Columbus, Ohio; Brian Hall, Blackbird Research Project, University of Guelph, Guelph, Ontario; George Cornwell, Virginia Polytechnic Insti¬tute, Blacksburg, Va.; Dick Warren, Peavey Grain Company, Minneapolis, Minn.; Bob Fringer, N.J. Department of Agriculture, Trenton, N.J.; Charles Stone, U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, Columbus, Ohio; Larry Holcomb, Ohio Agricultural Research and Development Center, Wooster, Ohio; Doug Slack, Ohio Agricultural Research and Development Center, Wooster, Ohio; Charles Wagg, N.J. Department of Agriculture, Trenton, N.J.; Dick Smith, U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, Columbus, Ohio; and Jim Caslick, U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, Gainesville, Fla. As I see the situation, as a director of a red-winged blackbird research project, we have a problem which has been defined in human terms concerning a natural animal population.

Assessing the gain of biological data integration in gene networks inference

Background: A current challenge in gene annotation is to define the gene function in the context of the network of relationships instead of using single genes. The inference of gene networks (GNs) has emerged as an approach to better understand the biology of the system and to study how several components of this network interact with each other and keep their functions stable. However, in general there is no sufficient data to accurately recover the GNs from their expression levels leading to the curse of dimensionality, in which the number of variables is higher than samples. One way to mitigate this problem is to integrate biological data instead of using only the expression profiles in the inference process. Nowadays, the use of several biological information in inference methods had a significant increase in order to better recover the connections between genes and reduce the false positives. What makes this strategy so interesting is the possibility of confirming the known connections through the included biological data, and the possibility of discovering new relationships between genes when observed the expression data. Although several works in data integration have increased the performance of the network inference methods, the real contribution of adding each type of biological information in the obtained improvement is not clear. Methods: We propose a methodology to include biological information into an inference algorithm in order to assess its prediction gain by using biological information and expression profile together. We also evaluated and compared the gain of adding four types of biological information: (a) protein-protein interaction, (b) Rosetta stone fusion proteins, (c) KEGG and (d) KEGG+GO. Results and conclusions: This work presents a first comparison of the gain in the use of prior biological information in the inference of GNs by considering the eukaryote (P. falciparum) organism. Our results indicates that information based on direct interaction can produce a higher improvement in the gain than data about a less specific relationship as GO or KEGG. Also, as expected, the results show that the use of biological information is a very important approach for the improvement of the inference. We also compared the gain in the inference of the global network and only the hubs. The results indicates that the use of biological information can improve the identification of the most connected proteins.

Mayaro Virus Infection in Amazonia: A Multimodel Inference Approach to Risk Factor Assessment

Background: Arboviral diseases are major global public health threats. Yet, our understanding of infection risk factors is, with a few exceptions, considerably limited. A crucial shortcoming is the widespread use of analytical methods generally not suited for observational data - particularly null hypothesis-testing (NHT) and step-wise regression (SWR). Using Mayaro virus (MAYV) as a case study, here we compare information theory-based multimodel inference (MMI) with conventional analyses for arboviral infection risk factor assessment. Methodology/Principal Findings: A cross-sectional survey of anti-MAYV antibodies revealed 44% prevalence (n = 270 subjects) in a central Amazon rural settlement. NHT suggested that residents of village-like household clusters and those using closed toilet/latrines were at higher risk, while living in non-village-like areas, using bednets, and owning fowl, pigs or dogs were protective. The "minimum adequate" SWR model retained only residence area and bednet use. Using MMI, we identified relevant covariates, quantified their relative importance, and estimated effect-sizes (beta +/- SE) on which to base inference. Residence area (beta(Village) = 2.93 +/- 0.41; beta(Upland) = -0.56 +/- 0.33, beta(Riverbanks) = -2.37 +/- 0.55) and bednet use (beta = -0.95 +/- 0.28) were the most important factors, followed by crop-plot ownership (beta = 0.39 +/- 0.22) and regular use of a closed toilet/latrine (beta = 0.19 +/- 0.13); domestic animals had insignificant protective effects and were relatively unimportant. The SWR model ranked fifth among the 128 models in the final MMI set. Conclusions/Significance: Our analyses illustrate how MMI can enhance inference on infection risk factors when compared with NHT or SWR. MMI indicates that forest crop-plot workers are likely exposed to typical MAYV cycles maintained by diurnal, forest dwelling vectors; however, MAYV might also be circulating in nocturnal, domestic-peridomestic cycles in village-like areas. This suggests either a vector shift (synanthropic mosquitoes vectoring MAYV) or a habitat/habits shift (classical MAYV vectors adapting to densely populated landscapes and nocturnal biting); any such ecological/adaptive novelty could increase the likelihood of MAYV emergence in Amazonia.

Bioelectrical impedance with different equations versus deuterium oxide dilution method for the inference of body composition in healthy older persons

There is no consensus regarding the accuracy of bioimpedance for the determination of body composition in older persons. This study aimed to compare the assessment of lean body mass of healthy older volunteers obtained by the deuterium dilution method (reference) with those obtained by two frequently used bioelectrical impedance formulas and one formula specifically developed for a Latin-American population. A cross-sectional study. Twenty one volunteers were studied, 12 women, with mean age 72 +/- 6.7 years. Urban community, Ribeiro Preto, Brazil. Fat free mass was determined, simultaneously, by the deuterium dilution method and bioelectrical impedance; results were compared. In bioelectrical impedance, body composition was calculated by the formulas of Deuremberg, Lukaski and Bolonchuck and Valencia et al. Lean body mass of the studied volunteers, as determined by bioelectrical impedance was 37.8 +/- 9.2 kg by the application of the Lukaski e Bolonchuk formula, 37.4 +/- 9.3 kg (Deuremberg) and 43.2 +/- 8.9 kg (Valencia et. al.). The results were significantly correlated to those obtained by the deuterium dilution method (41.6 +/- 9.3 Kg), with r=0.963, 0.932 and 0.971, respectively. Lean body mass obtained by the Valencia formula was the most accurate. In this study, lean body mass of older persons obtained by the bioelectrical impedance method showed good correlation with the values obtained by the deuterium dilution method. The formula of Valencia et al., developed for a Latin-American population, showed the best accuracy.

Likelihood-based inference for power distributions

This paper considers likelihood-based inference for the family of power distributions. Widely applicable results are presented which can be used to conduct inference for all three parameters of the general location-scale extension of the family. More specific results are given for the special case of the power normal model. The analysis of a large data set, formed from density measurements for a certain type of pollen, illustrates the application of the family and the results for likelihood-based inference. Throughout, comparisons are made with analogous results for the direct parametrisation of the skew-normal distribution.

Essays on Bayesian Inference for Social Networks

This thesis presents Bayesian solutions to inference problems for three types of social network data structures: a single observation of a social network, repeated observations on the same social network, and repeated observations on a social network developing through time. A social network is conceived as being a structure consisting of actors and their social interaction with each other. A common conceptualisation of social networks is to let the actors be represented by nodes in a graph with edges between pairs of nodes that are relationally tied to each other according to some definition. Statistical analysis of social networks is to a large extent concerned with modelling of these relational ties, which lends itself to empirical evaluation. The first paper deals with a family of statistical models for social networks called exponential random graphs that takes various structural features of the network into account. In general, the likelihood functions of exponential random graphs are only known up to a constant of proportionality. A procedure for performing Bayesian inference using Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods is presented. The algorithm consists of two basic steps, one in which an ordinary Metropolis-Hastings up-dating step is used, and another in which an importance sampling scheme is used to calculate the acceptance probability of the Metropolis-Hastings step. In paper number two a method for modelling reports given by actors (or other informants) on their social interaction with others is investigated in a Bayesian framework. The model contains two basic ingredients: the unknown network structure and functions that link this unknown network structure to the reports given by the actors. These functions take the form of probit link functions. An intrinsic problem is that the model is not identified, meaning that there are combinations of values on the unknown structure and the parameters in the probit link functions that are observationally equivalent. Instead of using restrictions for achieving identification, it is proposed that the different observationally equivalent combinations of parameters and unknown structure be investigated a posteriori. Estimation of parameters is carried out using Gibbs sampling with a switching devise that enables transitions between posterior modal regions. The main goal of the procedures is to provide tools for comparisons of different model specifications. Papers 3 and 4, propose Bayesian methods for longitudinal social networks. The premise of the models investigated is that overall change in social networks occurs as a consequence of sequences of incremental changes. Models for the evolution of social networks using continuos-time Markov chains are meant to capture these dynamics. Paper 3 presents an MCMC algorithm for exploring the posteriors of parameters for such Markov chains. More specifically, the unobserved evolution of the network in-between observations is explicitly modelled thereby avoiding the need to deal with explicit formulas for the transition probabilities. This enables likelihood based parameter inference in a wider class of network evolution models than has been available before. Paper 4 builds on the proposed inference procedure of Paper 3 and demonstrates how to perform model selection for a class of network evolution models.