Statistical inference about the relative efficiency of a new survey protocol, based on paired-tow survey calibration data

Paired-tow calibration studies provide information on changes in survey catchability that may occur because of some necessary change in protocols (e.g., change in vessel or vessel gear) in a fish stock survey. This information is important to ensure the continuity of annual time-series of survey indices of stock size that provide the basis for fish stock assessments. There are several statistical models used to analyze the paired-catch data from calibration studies. Our main contributions are results from simulation experiments designed to measure the accuracy of statistical inferences derived from some of these models. Our results show that a model commonly used to analyze calibration data can provide unreliable statistical results when there is between-tow spatial variation in the stock densities at each paired-tow site. However, a generalized linear mixed-effects model gave very reliable results over a wide range of spatial variations in densities and we recommend it for the analysis of paired-tow survey calibration data. This conclusion also applies if there is between-tow variation in catchability.

The use of agreement measures and latent class models to assess the reliability of classifying thermally marked otoliths

Otolith thermal marking is an efficient method for mass marking hatchery-reared salmon and can be used to estimate the proportion of hatchery fish captured in a mixed-stock fishery. Accuracy of the thermal pattern classification depends on the prominence of the pattern, the methods used to prepare and view the patterns, and the training and experience of the personnel who determine the presence or absence of a particular pattern. Estimating accuracy rates is problematic when no secondary marking is available and no error-free standards exist. Agreement measures, such as kappa (κ), provide a relative measure of the reliability of the determinations when independent readings by two readers are available, but the magnitude of κ can be influenced by the proportion of marked fish. If a third reader is used or if two or more groups of paired readings are examined, latent class models can provide estimates of the error rates of each reader. Applications of κ and latent class models are illustrated by a program providing contribution estimates of hatchery-reared chum and sockeye salmon in Southeast Alaska.

Comparison between pulsed-wave Doppler- and tissue Doppler-derived Tei indices in fetuses with and without congenital heart disease

OBJECTIVES The aim of this study was to compare the right (RV) and left (LV) ventricular Tei indices obtained by pulsed-wave Doppler (PD) and tissue Doppler (TD) methods in fetuses with structurally normal and abnormal hearts. METHODS This was a retrospective cross-sectional study of 147 fetuses that had a fetal echocardiogram and Tei index measured during a 2-year period. The RV and LV Tei indices were measured using both PD and TD methods. The difference between the two methods of Tei index measurement was tested using paired sample t-test, Pearson correlation coefficient was used to examine their relationship, and the agreement between the methods was tested using Bland-Altman analysis. RESULTS A total of 87 fetuses had normal hearts and 60 had a congenital heart defect. Both PD and TD Tei indices were measured successfully from at least one ventricle in 123 cases and from both ventricles in 110 cases. The mean TD Tei index was significantly higher than the mean PD Tei index for both ventricles (P < 0.0001). There was a weak but statistically significant correlation between the PD and TD Tei indices of the right ventricle (r = 0.20, P = 0.029), whereas the PD and TD Tei indices of the left ventricle did not correlate significantly (r = 0.04, P = 0.684). When pairs of Tei indices measured by two different methods (123 pairs for the right ventricle and 111 for the left ventricle) were tested with Bland-Altman analysis, the bias and precision were 0.147 and 0.254, respectively, for the right ventricle, and 0.299 and 0.276, respectively, for the left ventricle. CONCLUSIONS Correlation between Tei indices measured by PD and TD methods is weak and the agreement between individual measurements is poor. Therefore, they should not be used interchangeably in the assessment of fetal cardiac function.

A STUDY OF DIVERSITY AND COMMUNITY COMPARISON INDICES BY BIOASSAY OF COPPER USING COLONIZED BENTHIC MACROINVERTEBRATES

A community bioassay of copper was performed using benthic macroinvertebrates colonized on multiplate substrate samplers. Five copper concentrations ranging from 0.080-2.20 mg/l total copper were administered to five artificial streams by a Mount and Brungs proportional dilutor. Free copper ion as Cu('++) ranged from .002-.053 mg/l. A sixth stream received no copper and served as a control. Substrates were sampled at days 0, 14, and 28, and the results were used to compare 13 indices used or proposed to assess aquatic environmental impact. Sensitivity of the indices to changes in communities with respect to concentration and time was the basis for the comparison.^ Results indicated that all of the 8 diversity or richness indices tested gave approximately the same result (with the exception of number of species); they increased over the first 2-3 concentrations, then declined. Included among these was the Shannon index which gave false positive results, i.e., it increased, indicating enrichment, when in fact perturbation had occurred. This result was due to the disproportionate effect on the most abundant taxa, which caused a more even distribution of individuals among species. Number of species and individuals declined with increased concentration and time, with only one exception in the case of species, indicating perturbation.^ Results of five community comparison indices were varied at day 14 but by day 28 the results indicated a clear, nearly monotonic, trend due to copper impact. It was assumed that day 28 observations, though probably still changing, were nearer stability than at day 14 and therefore more representative of natural conditions. The changes in community comparison indices showed good agreement at 28 days and reflected the general decline in species and individuals. No single community comparison index could be set apart as superior to the others. ^

Causes of injuries resulting in hospitalisation in Australia : assessing coder agreement on external causes

Objective: To assess extent of coder agreement for external causes of injury using ICD-10-AM for injury-related hospitalisations in Australian public hospitals. Methods: A random sample of 4850 discharges from 2002 to 2004 was obtained from a stratified random sample of 50 hospitals across four states in Australia. On-site medical record reviews were conducted and external cause codes were assigned blinded to the original coded data. Code agreement levels were grouped into the following agreement categories: block level, 3-character level, 4-character level, 5th-character level, and complete code level. Results: At a broad block level, code agreement was found in over 90% of cases for most mechanisms (eg, transport, fall). Percentage disagreement was 26.0% at the 3-character level; agreement for the complete external cause code was 67.6%. For activity codes, the percentage of disagreement at the 3-character level was 7.3% and agreement for the complete activity code was 68.0%. For place of occurrence codes, the percentage of disagreement at the 4-character level was 22.0%; agreement for the complete place code was 75.4%. Conclusions: With 68% agreement for complete codes and 74% agreement for 3-character codes, as well as variability in agreement levels across different code blocks, place and activity codes, researchers need to be aware of the reliability of their specific data of interest when they wish to undertake trend analyses or case selection for specific causes of interest.

Multifractal analysis of geomagnetic storm and solar flare indices and their class dependence

The multifractal properties of two indices of geomagnetic activity, D st (representative of low latitudes) and a p (representative of the global geomagnetic activity), with the solar X-ray brightness, X l , during the period from 1 March 1995 to 17 June 2003 are examined using multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis (MF-DFA). The h(q) curves of D st and a p in the MF-DFA are similar to each other, but they are different from that of X l , indicating that the scaling properties of X l are different from those of D st and a p . Hence, one should not predict the magnitude of magnetic storms directly from solar X-ray observations. However, a strong relationship exists between the classes of the solar X-ray irradiance (the classes being chosen to separate solar flares of class X-M, class C, and class B or less, including no flares) in hourly measurements and the geomagnetic disturbances (large to moderate, small, or quiet) seen in D st and a p during the active period. Each time series was converted into a symbolic sequence using three classes. The frequency, yielding the measure representations, of the substrings in the symbolic sequences then characterizes the pattern of space weather events. Using the MF-DFA method and traditional multifractal analysis, we calculate the h(q), D(q), and τ (q) curves of the measure representations. The τ (q) curves indicate that the measure representations of these three indices are multifractal. On the basis of this three-class clustering, we find that the h(q), D(q), and τ (q) curves of the measure representations of these three indices are similar to each other for positive values of q. Hence, a positive flare storm class dependence is reflected in the scaling exponents h(q) in the MF-DFA and the multifractal exponents D(q) and τ (q). This finding indicates that the use of the solar flare classes could improve the prediction of the D st classes.

Future of the Haze Agreement : is the glass half empty or half full?

"In 1997–98, the ASEAN (Association of Southeast Asian Nations) region suffered an unprecedented health and environmental catastrophe due to choking haze created by a massive forest !re in Indonesia. It is estimated that the total losses from the fire could be US$5–6 billion after taking into account the loss of trees and other natural resources as well as the long-term impact on human health. This unprecedented anthropogenic disaster not only created a severe health and environmental hazard but also raised a question mark about the credibility and effectiveness of the ASEAN regional grouping. Against this background, ASEAN took a number of regional initiatives to try and solve the problem and finally adopted a new treaty for regional cooperation to combat forest fire and haze in 2002. This paper assesses the future success of this agreement from the perspectives of the legal, institutional and geopolitical reality of the region. Since numerous studies have examined state responsibility for transboundary environmental harm under international law and its implications on the ASEAN haze problem, this article will not touch upon that general debate nor the remedies that are possibly available to victim states. Rather, it will focus on the ASEAN regional legal and institutional initiatives to combat the haze pollution and compare them with a similar European regional agreement. Regarding the following analysis, it is important to recognise the uncertainty arising from Indonesia’s status (presently a non-party to the Agreement). A primary indication of the future effectiveness of this agreement can be drawn from an analysis of the principles involved in this agreement, bearing in mind the inherent difficulty of enforcing norms in the international environmental legal system as a whole, and the geopolitical reality of the region."

Common values in assessing health outcomes from disease and injury: Disability weights measurement study for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010

BACKGROUND Measurement of the global burden of disease with disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) requires disability weights that quantify health losses for all non-fatal consequences of disease and injury. There has been extensive debate about a range of conceptual and methodological issues concerning the definition and measurement of these weights. Our primary objective was a comprehensive re-estimation of disability weights for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 through a large-scale empirical investigation in which judgments about health losses associated with many causes of disease and injury were elicited from the general public in diverse communities through a new, standardised approach. METHODS We surveyed respondents in two ways: household surveys of adults aged 18 years or older (face-to-face interviews in Bangladesh, Indonesia, Peru, and Tanzania; telephone interviews in the USA) between Oct 28, 2009, and June 23, 2010; and an open-access web-based survey between July 26, 2010, and May 16, 2011. The surveys used paired comparison questions, in which respondents considered two hypothetical individuals with different, randomly selected health states and indicated which person they regarded as healthier. The web survey added questions about population health equivalence, which compared the overall health benefits of different life-saving or disease-prevention programmes. We analysed paired comparison responses with probit regression analysis on all 220 unique states in the study. We used results from the population health equivalence responses to anchor the results from the paired comparisons on the disability weight scale from 0 (implying no loss of health) to 1 (implying a health loss equivalent to death). Additionally, we compared new disability weights with those used in WHO's most recent update of the Global Burden of Disease Study for 2004. FINDINGS 13,902 individuals participated in household surveys and 16,328 in the web survey. Analysis of paired comparison responses indicated a high degree of consistency across surveys: correlations between individual survey results and results from analysis of the pooled dataset were 0·9 or higher in all surveys except in Bangladesh (r=0·75). Most of the 220 disability weights were located on the mild end of the severity scale, with 58 (26%) having weights below 0·05. Five (11%) states had weights below 0·01, such as mild anaemia, mild hearing or vision loss, and secondary infertility. The health states with the highest disability weights were acute schizophrenia (0·76) and severe multiple sclerosis (0·71). We identified a broad pattern of agreement between the old and new weights (r=0·70), particularly in the moderate-to-severe range. However, in the mild range below 0·2, many states had significantly lower weights in our study than previously. INTERPRETATION This study represents the most extensive empirical effort as yet to measure disability weights. By contrast with the popular hypothesis that disability assessments vary widely across samples with different cultural environments, we have reported strong evidence of highly consistent results.

Use of modal flexibility method to detect damage in suspended cables and the effects of cable parameters

Modal flexibility is a widely accepted technique to detect structural damage using vibration characteristics. Its application to detect damage in long span large diameter cables such as those used in suspension bridge main cables has not received much attention. This paper uses the modal flexibility method incorporating two damage indices (DIs) based on lateral and vertical modes to localize damage in such cables. The competency of those DIs in damage detection is tested by the numerically obtained vibration characteristics of a suspended cable in both intact and damaged states. Three single damage cases and one multiple damage case are considered. The impact of random measurement noise in the modal data on the damage localization capability of these two DIs is next examined. Long span large diameter cables are characterized by the two critical cable parameters named bending stiffness and sag-extensibility. The influence of these parameters in the damage localization capability of the two DIs is evaluated by a parametric study with two single damage cases. Results confirm that the damage index based on lateral vibration modes has the ability to successfully detect and locate damage in suspended cables with 5% noise in modal data for a range of cable parameters. This simple approach therefore can be extended for timely damage detection in cables of suspension bridges and thereby enhance their service during their life spans.

The impact of nonlinear pedagogy on physical education teacher education students’ intrinsic motivation

Background: Providing motivationally supportive physical education experiences for learners is crucial since empirical evidence in sport and physical education research has associated intrinsic motivation with positive educational outcomes. Self-determination theory (SDT) provides a valuable framework for examining motivationally supportive physical education experiences through satisfaction of three basic psychological needs: autonomy, competence and relatedness. However, the capacity of the prescriptive teaching philosophy of the dominant traditional physical education teaching approach to effectively satisfy the psychological needs of students to engage in physical education has been questioned. The constraints-led approach (CLA) has been proposed as a viable alternative teaching approach that can effectively support students’ self-motivated engagement in physical education. Purpose: We sought to investigate whether adopting the learning design and delivery of the CLA, guided by key pedagogical principles of nonlinear pedagogy (NLP), would address basic psychological needs of learners, resulting in higher self-reported levels of intrinsic motivation. The claim was investigated using action research. The teacher/researcher delivered two lessons aimed at developing hurdling skills: one taught using the CLA and the other using the traditional approach. Participants and Setting: The main participant for this study was the primary researcher and lead author who is a PETE educator, with extensive physical education teaching experience. A sample of 54 pre-service PETE students undertaking a compulsory second year practical unit at an Australian university was recruited for the study, consisting of an equal number of volunteers from each of two practical classes. A repeated measures experimental design was adopted, with both practical class groups experiencing both teaching approaches in a counterbalanced order. Data collection and analysis: Immediately after participation in each lesson, participants completed a questionnaire consisting of 22 items chosen from validated motivation measures of basic psychological needs and indices of intrinsic motivation, enjoyment and effort. All questionnaire responses were indicated on a 7-point Likert scale. A two-tailed, paired-samples t-test was used to compare the groups’ motivation subscale mean scores for each teaching approach. The size of the effect for each group was calculated using Cohen’s d. To determine whether any significant differences between the subscale mean scores of the two groups was due to an order effect, a two-tailed, independent samples t test was used. Findings: Participants’ reported substantially higher levels of self-determination and intrinsic motivation during the CLA hurdles lesson compared to during the traditional hurdles lesson. Both groups reported significantly higher motivation subscale mean scores for competence, relatedness, autonomy, enjoyment and effort after experiencing the CLA than mean scores reported after experiencing the traditional approach. This significant difference was evident regardless of the order that each teaching approach was experienced. Conclusion: The theoretically based pedagogical principles of NLP that inform learning design and delivery of the CLA may provide teachers and coaches with tools to develop more functional pedagogical climates, which result in students exhibiting more intrinsically motivated behaviours during learning.

Soviet-American Cooperative Research on Marine Mammals. Volume 1- Pinnipeds: Under Project V.6. Marine Mammals, of the US-USSR Agreement on Cooperation in the Field of Environmental Protection

Some 25 to 30 yr ago, when we as students were beginning our respective careers and were developing for the first time our awareness of marine mammals in the waters separating western North America from eastern Asia, we had visions of eventually bridging the communication gap which existed between our two countries at that time. Each of us was anxious to obtain information on the distribution, biology, and ecological relations of "our" seals and walruses on "the other side," beyond our respective political boundari~s where we were not permitted to go to study them. We were concerned that the resource management practices on the other side of the Bering and Chukchi Seas, implemented in isolation, on a purely unilateral basis, might endanger the species which we had come to know and were striving to conserve. At once apparent to both of us was the need for free exchange of biological information between our two countries and, ultimately, joint management of our shared resources. In a small way, we and others made some initial efforts to generate that exchange by personal correspondence and through vocal interchange at the annual meetings of the North Pacific Fur Seal Commission. By the enabling Agreement on Cooperation in the Field of Environmental Protection, reached between our two countries in 1972, our earlier visions at last came true. Since that time, within the framework of the Marine Mammal Project under Area V of that Agreement, we and our colleagues have forged a strong bond of professional accord and respect, in an atmosphere of free intercommunication and mutual understanding. The strength and utility of this arrangement from the beginning of our joint research are reflected in the reports contained in this, the first compendium of our work. The need for a series of such a compendia became apparent to us in 1976, and its implementation was agreed on by the regular meeting of the Project in La Jolla, Calif., in January 1977. Obviously, the preparation and publication of this first volume has been excessively delayed, in part by continuing political distrust between our governments but mainly by increasing demands placed on the time of the contributors. In this period of growing environmental concern in both countries, we and our colleagues have been totally immersed in other tasks and have experienced great difficulty in drawing together the works presented here. Much of the support for doing so was provided by the State of Alaska, through funding for Organized Research at the University of Alaska-Fairbanks. For its ultimate completion in publishable form we wish to thank Helen Stockholm, Director of Publications, Institute of Marine Science, University of Alaska, and her staff, especially Ruth Hand, and the numerous referees narned herein who gave willingly oftheir time to review each ofthe manuscripts critically and to provide a high measure of professionalism to the final product. (PDF file contains 110 pages.)

Growth and survival of sockeye salmon (Oncorhynchus nerka) from Karluk Lake and River, Alaska, in relation to climatic and oceanic regimes and indices, 1922–2000

We examined whether the relationship between climate and salmon production was linked through the effect of climate on the growth of sockeye salmon (Oncorhynchus nerka) at sea. Smolt length and juvenile, immature, and maturing growth rates were estimated from increments on scales of adult sockeye salmon that returned to the Karluk River and Lake system on Kodiak Island, Alaska, over 77 years, 1924–2000. Survival was higher during the warm climate regimes and lower during the cool regime. Growth was not correlated with survival, as estimated from the residuals of the Ricker stock-recruitment model. Juvenile growth was correlated with an atmospheric forcing index and immature growth was correlated with the amount of coastal precipitation, but the magnitude of winter and spring coastal downwelling in the Gulf of Alaska and the Pacific Northwest atmospheric patterns that influence the directional bifurcation of the Pacific Current were not related to the growth of Karluk sockeye salmon. However, indices of sea surface temperature, coastal precipitation, and atmospheric circulation in the eastern North Pacific were correlated with the survival of Karluk sockeye salmon. Winter and spring precipitation and atmospheric circulation are possible processes linking survival to climate variation in Karluk sockeye salmon.

Spatial-temporal characteristics of siping urban expansion based on remote sensing and GIS

Based on the RS and GIS methods, Siping city is selected as a study case with four remote sensing images in 25 years. Indices of urban morphology such as fractal dimension and compactness are employed to research the characteristics of urban expansion. Through digital processing and interpreting of the images, the process and characteristics of urban expansion are analysed using urban area change, fractal dimension and compactness. The results showed that there are three terms in this period. It expended fastest in the period of 1979~1991, and in the period of 1992~2001, the emphases on urban redevelopment made it expended slower. And this is in agreement with the Siping Statistical Yearbook. This indicates that the united of metrics of urban morphology and statistical data can be used to satisfactorily describe the process and characteristics of urban expansion. © 2008 IEEE.

Study on relationship between partition coefficient of compounds and topological indices

In this work, the A(m) indices and the molecular connectivity indices of fifty aromatic compounds have been calculated, and applied for studying on relationship between partition coefficient and structure of aromatic compounds. The results demonstrate that the property of compounds can be described better with revisionary A(m) indices.

Study on structure-property relationships between color reagents and sensitivity of color reactions with yttrium by topological indices

In this paper, three topological indices, Am-1, Am-2, and Am-3, multivariate analysis in structure-property studies. The topological indices of twenty asymmetrical phosphosphono bisazo derivatives of chromotropic acid have been calculated. The structure-property relationships between color reagents and molar absorptivity of color reactions with yttrium have been studied by A(m) indices and structure selective factors. Good results have been obtained by using correlation equation to predict the molar absorptivity of new color reagents.