The impact of the passenger response time distribution on ship evacuation performance

The International Maritime Organisation (IMO) has adopted the use of computer simulation to assist in the assessment of the assembly time for passenger ships. A key parameter required for this analysis and specified as part of the IMO guidelines is the passenger response time distribution. It is demonstrated in this paper that the IMO specified response time distribution assumes an unrealistic mathematical form. This unrealistic mathematical form can lead to serious congestion issues being overlooked in the evacuation analysis and lead to incorrect conclusions concerning the suitability of vessel design. In light of these results, it is vital that IMO undertake research to generate passenger response time data suitable for use in evacuation analysis of passenger ships. Until this type of data becomes readily available, it is strongly recommended that rather than continuing to use the artificial and unrepresentative form of the response time distribution, IMO should adopt plausible and more realistic response time data derived from land based applications. © 2005: Royal Institution of Naval Architects.

Investigating the impact of exit availability on egress time using computer based evacuation simulation

This paper examines the influence of exit availability on evacuation time for a narrow body aircraft under certification trial conditions using computer simulation. A narrow body aircraft which has previously passed the certification trial is used as the test configuration. While maintaining the certification requirement of 50% of the available exits, six different exit configurations are examined. These include the standard certification configuration (one exit from each exit pair) and five other exit configurations based on commonly occurring exit combinations found in accidents. These configurations are based on data derived from the AASK database and the evacuation simulations are performed using the airEXODUS evacuation simulation software. The results show that the certification practice of using half the available exits predominately down one side of the aircraft is neither statistically relevant nor challenging. For the aircraft cabin layout examined, the exit configuration used in certification trial produces the shortest egress times. Furthermore, three of the six exit combinations investigated result in predicted egress times in excess of 90 seconds, suggesting that the aircraft would not satisfy the certification requirement under these conditions.

Predicting the likely impact of aircraft post crash fire on aircraft evacuation using fire and evacuation simulation

The SMARTFIRE Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) fire field model has successfully reproduced the observed characteristics including measured temperatures, species concentrations and time to flashover for a post-crash fire experiment conducted by the FAA within their C-133 cabin test facility. In this test only one exit was open in order to provide ventilation for the developing cabin fire. In real post-crash fires, many exits are likely to be open as passangers attempt to evacuate. In this paper, the likely impacts on evacuation of a post-crash fire in which various exiting combinations are available are investigated. The fire scenario, investigated using the SMARTFIRE software, is based on the C-133 experiment but with a fully furnished cabin and with four different exit availability options. The fire data is imported into the airEXODUS evacuation simulation software and the resulting evacuations examined. The combined fire and evacuation analysis reveals that even though the aircraft configuration is predicted to comfortably satisfy the evacuation certification requirement, when fire is included, a number of casualties result, even from the certification compliant exit configuration.

Practitioners’ perception of the impact of the vision of policy-makers on practice: The example of the recommendations of the Moser Commission

This paper presents the perception of practitioners of the impact of the Moser Committee recommendations and the Skills for Life agenda it generated. The paper further explores areas of convergence and divergence between practitioners’ perceptions and the underpinning values of the Moser Committee recommendations. The study utilised a range of research tools including an online questionnaire, documentary analysis and elements of discourse analysis in the collection and analysis of data. It found that there is substantial divergence between the perception of practitioners and the values underpinning policy. It concludes by suggesting that a varying perception of what constitutes sustainable education and the lack of input from practitioners into policy might be responsible for this significant divergence of opinion and also raised a question on the perceived role of practitioners in the policy‐making process.

The impact of the nursing workforce on patient outcomes in intensive care

Introduction: Evidence from studies conducted mainly in the US and mainland Europe suggests that characteristics of the workforce, such as nurse patient ratios and workload (measured in a number of different ways) may be linked to variations in patient outcomes across health care settings (Carmel and Rowan 2001). Few studies have tested this relationship in the UK thus questions remain about whether we are justified in extrapolating evidence from studies conducted in very different health care systems. Objectives: To investigate whether characteristics of the nursing workforce affect patient mortality UK Intensive Care Units. Data: Patient data came from the case mix programme, Intensive Care National Audit and Research Centre (ICNARC), while information about the units came from a survey of all ICUs in England (Audit Comission 1998). The merged data set contained information on 43,859 patients in 69 units across England. ICNARC also supplied a risk adjustment variable to control for patient characteristics that are often the most important determinants of survival. Methods: Multivariate multilevel logistic regression. Findings: Higher numbers of direct care nurses and lower scores on measures of workload(proportion of occupied beds at the time the patient was admitted and mean daily transfers into the unit) were associated with lower mortality rates. Furthermore, the effect of the number of direct care nurses was greatest on the life chances of the patients who were most at risk of dying. Implications: This study has wide implications for workforce policy and planning because it shows that the size of the nursing workforce is associated with mortality (West et al 2006). Few studies have demonstrated this relationship in the UK. This study has a number of strengths and weaknesses and further research is required to determine whether this relationship between the nursing workforce and patient outcomes is causal.

Impact of human activities on benthic biotopes and species

Executive Summary 1. The Marine Life Information Network (MarLIN) has been developed since 1998. Defra funding has supported a core part of its work, the Biology and Sensitivity Key Information Sub-programme. This report relates to Biology and Sensitivity work for the period 2001-2004. 2. MarLIN Biology and Sensitivity research takes information on the biology of species to identify the likely effects of changing environmental conditions linked to human activities on those species. In turn, species that are key functional, key structural, dominant, or characteristic in a biotope (the habitat and its associated species) are used to identify biotope sensitivity. Results are displayed over the World Wide Web and can be accessed via a range of search tools that make the information of relevance to environmental management. 3. The first Defra contract enabled the development of criteria and methods of research, database storage methods and the research of a wide range of species. A contract from English Nature and Scottish Natural Heritage enabled biotopes relevant to marine SACs to be researched. 4. Defra funding in 2001-2004 has especially enabled recent developments to be targeted for research. Those developments included the identification of threatened and declining species by the OSPAR Biodiversity Committee, the development of a new approach to defining sensitivity (part of the Review of Marine Nature Conservation), and the opportunity to use Geographical Information Systems (GIS) more effectively to link survey data to MarLIN assessments of sensitivity. 5. The MarLIN database has been developed to provide a resource to 'pick-and-mix' information depending on the questions being asked. Using GIS, survey data that provides locations for species and biotopes has been linked to information researched by MarLIN to map the likely sensitivity of an area to a specified factor. Projects undertaken for the Irish Sea pilot (marine landscapes), in collaboration with CEFAS (fishing impacts) and with the Countryside Council for Wales (oil spill response) have demonstrated the application of MarLIN information linked to survey data in answering, through maps, questions about likely impacts of human activities on seabed ecosystems. 6. GIS applications that use MarLIN sensitivity information give meaningful results when linked to localized and detailed survey information (lists of species and biotopes as point source or mapped extents). However, broad landscape units require further interpretation. 7. A new mapping tool (SEABED map) has been developed to display data on species distributions and survey data according to search terms that might be used by an environmental manager. 8. MarLIN outputs are best viewed on the Web site where the most up-to-date information from live databases is available. The MarLIN Web site receives about 1600 visits a day. 9. The MarLIN approach to assessing sensitivity and its application to environmental management were presented in papers at three international conferences during the current contract and a 'touchstone' paper is to be published in the peer-reviewed journal Hydrobiologia. The utility of MarLIN information for environmental managers, amongst other sorts of information, has been described in an article in Marine Pollution Bulletin. 10. MarLIN information is being used to inform the identification of potential indicator species for implementation of the Water Framework Directive including initiatives by ICES. 11. Non-Defra funding streams are supporting the updating of reviews and increasing the amount of peer review undertaken; both of which are important to the maintenance of the resource. However, whilst MarLIN information is sufficiently wide ranging to be used in an 'operational' way for marine environmental protection and management, new initiatives and the new biotopes classification have introduced additional species and biotopes that will need to be researched in the future. 12. By the end of the contract, the Biology and Sensitivity Key Information database contained full Key Information reviews on 152 priority species and 117 priority biotopes, together with basic information on 412 species; a total of 564 marine benthic species.

Simulating The Impact Of Technological-Change On Dissolved Cadmium Distribution In The Severn Estuary

An estuarine model is described which computes the dispersive and advective properties of the Severn Estuary. It was calibrated and validated using 50 measured salinity distributions and then used to predict the magnitude and sitings of the major inputs of dissolved cadmium levels throughout the estuary. The results provided an impetus for implementing tighter controls on effluents and for improving estimates of cadmium discharges from industrial sources. The model has also been used to investigate the sensitivity of the estuarine system to changes in dispersion; by considering large reductions in the dispersion coefficients it is hoped that the results might be indicative of the environmental consequences following the construction of a tidal power generating scheme.