Money Cycles

Operating overheads are widespread and lead to concentrated bursts of activity. To transfer resources between active and idle spells, agents demand financial assets. Futures contracts and lotteries are unsuitable, as they have substantial overheads of their own.We show that money – under efficient monetary policy – is a liquid asset that leads to efficient allocations. Under all other policies, agents follow inefficient “money cycle” patterns of saving, activity, and inactivity. Agents spend their money too quickly – a “hot potato effect of inflation”. We show that inflation can stimulate inefficiently high aggregate output.

Multiple Objectives in Monetary Policy: A de Facto Analysis for ‘Advanced’ Countries

A statistical methodology is developed by which realised outcomes can be used to identify, for calendar years between 1974 and 2012, when policy makers in ‘advanced’ economies have successfully pursued single objectives of different kinds, or multiple objectives. A simple criterion is then used to distinguish between multiple objectives pure and simple and multiple objectives subject to a price stability constraint. The overall and individual country results which this methodology produces seem broadly plausible. Unconditional and conditional analyses of the inflation and growth associated with different types of objectives reveal that multiple objectives subject to a price stability constraint are associated with roughly as good economic performance as the single objective of inflation. A proposal is then made as to how the remit of an inflation-targeting central bank could be adjusted to allow it to pursue other objectives in extremis without losing the credibility effects associated with inflation targeting.

A Multiple Break Panel Approach to Estimating United States Phillips Curves

Phillips curves are often estimated without due attention being paid to the underlying time series properties of the data. In particular, the consequences of inflation having discrete breaks in mean have not been studied adequately. We show by means of simulations and a detailed empirical example based on United States data that not taking account of breaks may lead to biased, and therefore spurious, estimates of Phillips curves. We suggest a method to account for the breaks in mean inflation and obtain meaningful and unbiased estimates of the short- and long-run Phillips curves in the United States.

Time Varying Dimension Models

Time varying parameter (TVP) models have enjoyed an increasing popularity in empirical macroeconomics. However, TVP models are parameter-rich and risk over-fitting unless the dimension of the model is small. Motivated by this worry, this paper proposes several Time Varying dimension (TVD) models where the dimension of the model can change over time, allowing for the model to automatically choose a more parsimonious TVP representation, or to switch between different parsimonious representations. Our TVD models all fall in the category of dynamic mixture models. We discuss the properties of these models and present methods for Bayesian inference. An application involving US inflation forecasting illustrates and compares the different TVD models. We find our TVD approaches exhibit better forecasting performance than several standard benchmarks and shrink towards parsimonious specifications.

Monetary policy strategies, financial institutions and financial markets in the Middle East and North Africa: an overview

Three polar types of monetary architecture are identified together with the institutional and market infrastructure required for each type and the kinds of monetary policy feasible in each case: a ‘basic’ architecture where there is little or no financial system as such but an elementary central bank which is able to fix the exchange rate, as a substitute for a proper monetary policy; a ‘modern’ monetary architecture with developed banks, financial markets and central bank where policy choices include types of inflation targeting; and an ‘intermediate’ monetary architecture where less market-based monetary policies involving less discretion are feasible. A range of data is used to locate the various MENA countries with respect to these polar types. Five countries (Iran, Libya, Sudan, Syria and Yemen) are identified as those with the least developed monetary architecture, while Bahrain and Jordan are identified as the group at the other end of the spectrum, reaching beyond the intermediate polar type in some dimensions but not others. The countries in between vary on different dimensions but all lie between basic and intermediate architectures. The key general findings are that the MENA countries are both less differentiated and less ‘developed’ than might have been expected. The paper ends by calling for research on the costs and benefits of different types of monetary architecture.

Hierarchical Shrinkage in Time-Varying Parameter Models

In this paper, we forecast EU-area inflation with many predictors using time-varying parameter models. The facts that time-varying parameter models are parameter-rich and the time span of our data is relatively short motivate a desire for shrinkage. In constant coefficient regression models, the Bayesian Lasso is gaining increasing popularity as an effective tool for achieving such shrinkage. In this paper, we develop econometric methods for using the Bayesian Lasso with time-varying parameter models. Our approach allows for the coefficient on each predictor to be: i) time varying, ii) constant over time or iii) shrunk to zero. The econometric methodology decides automatically which category each coefficient belongs in. Our empirical results indicate the benefits of such an approach.

The Optimal Degree of Monetary-Discretion in a New Keynesian Model with Private Information

This paper considers the optimal degree of discretion in monetary policy when the central bank conducts policy based on its private information about the state of the economy and is unable to commit. Society seeks to maximize social welfare by imposing restrictions on the central bank's actions over time, and the central bank takes these restrictions and the New Keynesian Phillips curve as constraints. By solving a dynamic mechanism design problem we find that it is optimal to grant "constrained discretion" to the central bank by imposing both upper and lower bounds on permissible inflation, and that these bounds must be set in a history-dependent way. The optimal degree of discretion varies over time with the severity of the time-inconsistency problem, and, although no discretion is optimal when the time-inconsistency problem is very severe, our numerical experiment suggests that no-discretion is a transient phenomenon, and that some discretion is granted eventually.

Co-Movement, Spillovers and Excess Returns in Global Bond Markets

This paper investigates global term structure dynamics using a Bayesian hierarchical factor model augmented with macroeconomic fundamentals. More than half of the variation in bond yields of seven advanced economies is due to global co-movement, which is mainly attributed to shocks to non-fundamentals. Global fundamentals, especially global inflation, affect yields through a ‘policy channel’ and a ‘risk compensation channel’, but the effects through two channels are offset. This evidence explains the unsatisfactory performance of fundamentals-driven term structure models. Our approach delineates asymmetric spillovers in global bond markets connected to diverging monetary policies. The proposed model is robust as identified factors has significant explanatory power of excess returns. The finding that global inflation uncertainty is useful in explaining realized excess returns does not rule out regime changing as a source of non-fundamental fluctuations.

Heterogeneous dynamics, aggregation and the persistence of economic shocks

It has been recently emphasized that, if individuals have heterogeneous dynamics, estimates of shock persistence based on aggregate data are significatively higher than those derived from its disaggregate counterpart. However, a careful examination of the implications of this statement on the various tools routinely employed to measure persistence is missing in the literature. This paper formally examines this issue. We consider a disaggregate linear model with heterogeneous dynamics and compare the values of several measures of persistence across aggregation levels. Interestingly, we show that the average persistence of aggregate shocks, as measured by the impulse response function (IRF) of the aggregate model or by the average of the individual IRFs, is identical on all horizons. This result remains true even in situations where the units are (short-memory) stationary but the aggregate process is long-memory or even nonstationary. In contrast, other popular persistence measures, such as the sum of the autoregressive coefficients or the largest autoregressive root, tend to be higher the higher the aggregation level. We argue, however, that this should be seen more as an undesirable property of these measures than as evidence of different average persistence across aggregation levels. The results are illustrated in an application using U.S. inflation data.

Narrating urban entrepreneurship: a matter of imagineering?

The battle between cities with regard to their creative possibilities has evolved into a process of multiplying ever-new images and variegated stories of urban attractiveness and success. Engineering “cool” images and “hot” stories about one’s city is now a central endeavor in the narratives of urban policy-making that center more and more on the idea of the entrepreneurial city. The making of an entrepreneurial image is enacted through various narrative genres that lie somewhere between place making and place marketing, between branding and boosting, between restoration and revanchism, between iconic architecture and mega-spectacle. This “imagineering” is not only part of the way cities try to (re)present themselves as entrepreneurial to various audiences through a real “image inflation” (Zukin, 2008, p. xii) but is 1 Forthcoming in: B. Lange,.A. Kalandides, B. Stoeber, I. Wellmann (Hrsg.) (2009): Governance der Kreativwirtschaft. Diagnosen und Handlungsoptionen. Transcript-Verlag, Bielefeld. 2 also inscribed in the various ways urban creativity and entrepreneurship can be studied, researched and imagined. In this chapter we aim to differentiate the political narratives of the entrepreneurial city as we emphasize the need to understand the politics of narration and make a plea for critical reflexivity in our forms of researching and theorizing. We will thus try to investigate how the politics of narration is intertwined with the narration of political concepts and will argue that the narrating of urban entrepreneurship can raise very different images and discourses of city life beyond those that are currently engineered. We will distinguish between a grand narrative, a counter-narrative, and an assemblage of more ambivalent little narratives, which we call prosaic narration. While the distinction between these three types might be seen as a bit too simple and “straight”, we believe that by juxtaposing these different forms of narration and alternating between them, we can help problematize the engineering of the city as entrepreneurial and imagine alternative views both of city life and of what is understood as its creativity.

Schistosomiasis research funding: the TDR contribution

In spite of the recent decline in financial support on the part of some major donors, the overall international support for schistosomiasis research in current US dollars has been holding steady. However, when adjusted for inflation, a clear decline during the last decade appears and only in a few countries has this decline been balanced by increased national or bilateral funding. The prevailing level of support for schistosomiasis research is barely sufficient to maintain estabilished laboratories and researchers, and highlights the need to attract young investigators. The important goal of brunging a new generation of scientists into the field of schistosomiaisis can only be achieved by a considerable long-term increase in funding, both at the national and the international levels. A break-through in current research emphasizing improved techniques for control is needed to encourage donors and governments to improve the situation.

State-dependent threshold STAR models

In this paper we consider extensions of smooth transition autoregressive (STAR) models to situations where the threshold is a time-varying function of variables that affect the separation of regimes of the time series under consideration. Our specification is motivated by the observation that unusually high/low values for an economic variable may sometimes be best thought of in relative terms. State-dependent logistic STAR and contemporaneous-threshold STAR models are introduced and discussed. These models are also used to investigate the dynamics of U.S. short-term interest rates, where the threshold is allowed to be a function of past output growth and inflation.

Comparative study of four species of Trichuris roederer, 1761 (Nematoda, Trichurinae) by scanning electron microscopy

A comparative morphological study of Trichuris travassosi, T. vulpis, T. discolor and T. suis was perfomed using scanning electron microscopy. Cuticular inflation associated with the bacillar band, vulva and male external genital appendages were analyzed. Qualitative and quantitative analyses of these structures were made for each species; they are of taxonomic value.

Primordial Perturbations in Einstein-Aether theories

El nostre objectiu es l'estudi d'extensions de la Relativitat General i, en particular, estem interessats en les teories que continguin camps vectorials addicionals. En aquests tipus de teories es necessari imposar que el vector ha de tenir norma fixa per evitar la presència d'un fantasma o grau de llibertat amb terme cinètic negatiu, i això implica que la simetria Lorentz està trencada espontàniament. El camp del aether només interactua gravitatòriament i la seva presència es difícil de detectar, no obstant això, durant inflació les fluctuacions del buit a escales petites d'un camp lleuger pot deixar una empremta en observables com les anisotropies del fons de radiació de microones. Les fluctuacions del Einstein-aether es comporten com els camps sense massa i això fa que inflació generi modes de longitud de ona llarga en els sectors escalar i vectorial. Hem estudiat la signatura del Einstein-aether dins l'espectre de pertorbacions primordials lluny del límit de de Sitter de inflació. Aquests modes escalars i vectorials poden deixar una empremta significativa en la radiació de fons de microones en funció dels paràmetres del model. Les observacions del fons de radiació de microones imposen restriccions fenomenològiques que redueixen els límits existents per aquesta classe de teoria. Amb aquest estudi del aether també esperem millorar el coneixement que tenim de una classe més ampla de teories que exhibeixen el mateix tipus de trencament de simetria.

Le cérémonial princier à la cour de Savoie (1490-1550) : entre stratégies dynastiques et représentation du pouvoir

Au tournant du XVIe siècle, dans la plupart des cours princières européennes, le cérémonial connut une inflation sans précédent : les rituels touchant le monarque et sa famille se mirent à faire l'objet de célébrations de plus en plus élaborées, rapportées par une documentation à l'ampleur jusqu'alors inédite. C'est ce phénomène que cette thèse se propose d'analyser, en étudiant l'ensemble des cérémonies produites par un Etat particulier lors d'une période donnée - soit le duché de Savoie des années 1490 à 1550. Une recherche qui s'articule essentiellement autour de deux problématiques : la manière dont les cérémonies devinrent, d'une part, les principaux vecteurs de la mise en scène du pouvoir princier et, d'autre part, une incarnation concrète des stratégies dynastiques de la famille régnante. En un mot : comment les rituels furent utilisés comme instruments de gouvernement. Ce travail s'attelle à reconstituer en détail le déroulement et les enjeux propres à cinq genres de célébrations (les mariages, les joyeuses entrées, les baptêmes, les funérailles et les rituels liés aux ordres de chevalerie), pour ensuite réunir et comparer les résultats obtenus dans une perspective plus large, en vue de considérer le cérémonial de cour comme un tout. Il s'agit d'une démarche novatrice, car si les différents types de cérémonies princières ont chacun fait l'objet d'une abondante littérature, ils n'ont jamais véritablement été envisagés en interaction les uns avec les autres, du moins pour l'époque médiévale. Cette optique comparatiste, d'abord appliquée au champ de recherche spécifique constitué par la Savoie de la première moitié du XVIe siècle, permet ensuite une plus ample réflexion sur le cérémonial princier de la fin du Moyen Age et du début de l'époque moderne, en particulier dans l'espace francophone (Savoie, France, Bourgogne). La présente étude accorde en outre un intérêt tout particulier à un genre littéraire qui apparut à la fin du XVe siècle et connut une fortune croissante au cours des siècles suivants : les 'récits de cérémonie', soit des textes de propagande voués à relater dans leurs moindres détails des célébrations princières. Ce genre documentaire a jusqu'ici été peu étudié - et seulement pour l'époque moderne. En conséquence, cette thèse s'applique à retracer l'apparition de ces récits dans les cours princières occidentales et à proposer une typographie de leurs exemplaires les plus anciens. Enfin, le choix du cadre temporel et géographique de ce travail permet de combler partiellement un vide historiographique. Le duché de Savoie, très bien étudié jusqu'au milieu du XVe siècle et dès le milieu du XVIe siècle, n'a en effet que peu intéressé les chercheurs pour la centaine d'années s'étendant de 1450 à 1550. Sans avoir la prétention de pallier cette lacune, cette recherche offre une reconstitution précise de l'histoire du duché savoyard à la Renaissance, en particulier durant le principat du duc Charles II de Savoie (1504-1553).