Impact attribution models to evaluate drought effects: economic impacts, risk analyses and management strategies in Spain and Chile

La sequía es un fenómeno natural que se origina por el descenso de las precipitaciones con respecto a una media, y que resulta en la disponibilidad insuficiente de agua para alguna actividad. La creciente presión que se ha venido ejerciendo sobre los recursos hídricos ha hecho que los impactos de la sequía se hayan visto agravados a la vez que ha desencadenado situaciones de escasez de agua en muchas partes del planeta. Los países con clima mediterráneo son especialmente vulnerables a las sequías, y, su crecimiento económico dependiente del agua da lugar a impactos importantes. Para reducir los impactos de la sequía es necesaria una reducción de la vulnerabilidad a las sequías que viene dada por una gestión más eficiente y por una mejor preparación. Para ello es muy importante disponer de información acerca de los impactos y el alcance de este fenómeno natural. Esta investigación trata de abarcar el tema de los impactos de las sequías, de manera que plantea todos los tipos de impactos que pueden darse y además compara sus efectos en dos países (España y Chile). Para ello se proponen modelos de atribución de impactos que sean capaces de medir las pérdidas económicas causadas por la falta de agua. Los modelos propuestos tienen una base econométrica en la que se incluyen variables clave a la hora de evaluar los impactos como es una variable relacionada con la disponibilidad de agua, y otras de otra naturaleza para distinguir los efectos causados por otras fuentes de variación. Estos modelos se adaptan según la fase del estudio en la que nos encontremos. En primer lugar se miden los impactos directos sobre el regadío y se introduce en el modelo un factor de aleatoriedad para evaluar el riesgo económico de sequía. Esto se hace a dos niveles geográficos (provincial y de Unidad de Demanda Agraria) y además en el último se introduce no solo el riesgo de oferta sino también el riesgo de demanda de agua. La introducción de la perspectiva de riesgo en el modelo da lugar a una herramienta de gestión del riesgo económico que puede ser utilizada para estrategias de planificación. Más adelante una extensión del modelo econométrico se desarrolla para medir los impactos en el sector agrario (impactos directos sobre el regadío y el secano e impactos indirectos sobre la Agro Industria) para ello se adapta el modelo y se calculan elasticidades concatenadas entre la falta de agua y los impactos secundarios. Por último se plantea un modelo econométrico para el caso de estudio en Chile y se evalúa el impacto de las sequías debidas al fenómeno de La Niña. iv Los resultados en general muestran el valor que brinda el conocimiento más preciso acerca de los impactos, ya que en muchas ocasiones se tiende a sobreestimar los daños realmente producidos por la falta de agua. Los impactos indirectos de la sequía confirman su alcance a la vez que son amortiguados a medida que nos acercamos al ámbito macroeconómico. En el caso de Chile, su diferente gestión muestra el papel que juegan el fenómeno de El Niño y La Niña sobre los precios de los principales cultivos del país y sobre el crecimiento del sector. Para reducir las pérdidas y su alcance se deben plantear más medidas de mitigación que centren su esfuerzo en una gestión eficiente del recurso. Además la prevención debe jugar un papel muy importante para reducir los riesgos que pueden sufrirse ante situaciones de escasez. ABSTRACT Drought is a natural phenomenon that originates by the decrease in rainfall in comparison to the average, and that results in water shortages for some activities. The increasing pressure on water resources has augmented the impact of droughts just as water scarcity has become an additional problem in many parts of the planet. Countries with Mediterranean climate are especially vulnerable to drought, and its waterdependent economic growth leads to significant impacts. To reduce the negative impacts it is necessary to deal with drought vulnerability, and to achieve this objective a more efficient management is needed. The availability of information about the impacts and the scope of droughts become highly important. This research attempts to encompass the issue of drought impacts, and therefore it characterizes all impact types that may occur and also compares its effects in two different countries (Spain and Chile). Impact attribution models are proposed in order to measure the economic losses caused by the lack of water. The proposed models are based on econometric approaches and they include key variables for measuring the impacts. Variables related to water availability, crop prices or time trends are included to be able to distinguish the effects caused by any of the possible sources. These models are adapted for each of the parts of the study. First, the direct impacts on irrigation are measured and a source of variability is introduced into the model to assess the economic risk of drought. This is performed at two geographic levels provincial and Agricultural Demand Unit. In the latter, not only the supply risk is considered but also the water demand risk side. The introduction of the risk perspective into the model results in a risk management tool that can be used for planning strategies. Then an extension of the econometric model is developed to measure the impacts on the agricultural sector (direct impacts on irrigated and rainfed productions and indirect impacts on the Agri-food Industry). For this aim the model is adapted and concatenated elasticities between the lack of water and the impacts are estimated. Finally an econometric model is proposed for the Chilean case study to evaluate the impact of droughts, especially caused by El Niño Southern Oscillation. The overall results show the value of knowing better about the precise impacts that often tend to be overestimated. The models allow for measuring accurate impacts due to the lack of water. Indirect impacts of drought confirm their scope while they confirm also its dilution as we approach the macroeconomic variables. In the case of Chile, different management strategies of the country show the role of ENSO phenomena on main crop prices and on economic trends. More mitigation measures focused on efficient resource management are necessary to reduce drought losses. Besides prevention must play an important role to reduce the risks that may be suffered due to shortages.

Implementation and management of private traffic limitation in urban areas: experiences and methodologies.

This paper shows the results of a research aimed to formulate a general model for supporting the implementation and management of an urban road pricing scheme. After a preliminary work, to define the state of the art in the field of sustainable urban mobility strategies, the problem has been theoretically set up in terms of transport economy, introducing the external costs’ concept duly translated into the principle of pricing for the use of public infrastructures. The research is based on the definition of a set of direct and indirect indicators to qualify the urban areas by land use, mobility, environmental and economic conditions. These indicators have been calculated for a selected set of typical urban areas in Europe on the basis of the results of a survey carried out by means of a specific questionnaire. Once identified the most typical and interesting applications of the road pricing concept in cities such as London (Congestion Charging), Milan (Ecopass), Stockholm (Congestion Tax) and Rome (ZTL), a large benchmarking exercise and the cross analysis of direct and indirect indicators, has allowed to define a simple general model, guidelines and key requirements for the implementation of a pricing scheme based traffic restriction in a generic urban area. The model has been finally applied to the design of a road pricing scheme for a particular area in Madrid, and to the quantification of the expected results of its implementation from a land use, mobility, environmental and economic perspective.

Analysis, monitoring, and management of quality of experience in video delivery services over IP

Esta tesis estudia la monitorización y gestión de la Calidad de Experiencia (QoE) en los servicios de distribución de vídeo sobre IP. Aborda el problema de cómo prevenir, detectar, medir y reaccionar a las degradaciones de la QoE desde la perspectiva de un proveedor de servicios: la solución debe ser escalable para una red IP extensa que entregue flujos individuales a miles de usuarios simultáneamente. La solución de monitorización propuesta se ha denominado QuEM(Qualitative Experience Monitoring, o Monitorización Cualitativa de la Experiencia). Se basa en la detección de las degradaciones de la calidad de servicio de red (pérdidas de paquetes, disminuciones abruptas del ancho de banda...) e inferir de cada una una descripción cualitativa de su efecto en la Calidad de Experiencia percibida (silencios, defectos en el vídeo...). Este análisis se apoya en la información de transporte y de la capa de abstracción de red de los flujos codificados, y permite caracterizar los defectos más relevantes que se observan en este tipo de servicios: congelaciones, efecto de “cuadros”, silencios, pérdida de calidad del vídeo, retardos e interrupciones en el servicio. Los resultados se han validado mediante pruebas de calidad subjetiva. La metodología usada en esas pruebas se ha desarrollado a su vez para imitar lo más posible las condiciones de visualización de un usuario de este tipo de servicios: los defectos que se evalúan se introducen de forma aleatoria en medio de una secuencia de vídeo continua. Se han propuesto también algunas aplicaciones basadas en la solución de monitorización: un sistema de protección desigual frente a errores que ofrece más protección a las partes del vídeo más sensibles a pérdidas, una solución para minimizar el impacto de la interrupción de la descarga de segmentos de Streaming Adaptativo sobre HTTP, y un sistema de cifrado selectivo que encripta únicamente las partes del vídeo más sensibles. También se ha presentado una solución de cambio rápido de canal, así como el análisis de la aplicabilidad de los resultados anteriores a un escenario de vídeo en 3D. ABSTRACT This thesis proposes a comprehensive approach to the monitoring and management of Quality of Experience (QoE) in multimedia delivery services over IP. It addresses the problem of preventing, detecting, measuring, and reacting to QoE degradations, under the constraints of a service provider: the solution must scale for a wide IP network delivering individual media streams to thousands of users. The solution proposed for the monitoring is called QuEM (Qualitative Experience Monitoring). It is based on the detection of degradations in the network Quality of Service (packet losses, bandwidth drops...) and the mapping of each degradation event to a qualitative description of its effect in the perceived Quality of Experience (audio mutes, video artifacts...). This mapping is based on the analysis of the transport and Network Abstraction Layer information of the coded stream, and allows a good characterization of the most relevant defects that exist in this kind of services: screen freezing, macroblocking, audio mutes, video quality drops, delay issues, and service outages. The results have been validated by subjective quality assessment tests. The methodology used for those test has also been designed to mimic as much as possible the conditions of a real user of those services: the impairments to evaluate are introduced randomly in the middle of a continuous video stream. Based on the monitoring solution, several applications have been proposed as well: an unequal error protection system which provides higher protection to the parts of the stream which are more critical for the QoE, a solution which applies the same principles to minimize the impact of incomplete segment downloads in HTTP Adaptive Streaming, and a selective scrambling algorithm which ciphers only the most sensitive parts of the media stream. A fast channel change application is also presented, as well as a discussion about how to apply the previous results and concepts in a 3D video scenario.

PREPARATION AND MANAGEMENT OF THE MSc PROGRAME IN ENVIRONMENTAL SECURITY

Authors proposed an MSc Program related to Environmental Security and Management. This program endeavors to prepare students for the regional and global postgraduate job market.

An integrated framework for office information systems design and management

Information Technologies are complex and this is true even in the smallest piece of equipment. But this kind of complexity is nothing comparejwith the one that arises when this technology interact with society. Office Automation has been traditionally considered as a technical field but there is no way to find solutions from a technical point of view when the problems are primarily social in their origin. Technology management has to change its focus from a pure technical perspective to a sociotechnical point of view. To facilitate this change, we propose a model that allows a better understanding between the managerial and the technical world, offering a coherent, complete and integrated perspective of both. The base for this model is an unfolding of the complexity found in information Technologies and a matching of these complexities with several levels considered within the Office, Office Automation and Human Factors dimensions. Each one of these domains is studied trough a set of distinctions that create a new and powerful understanding of its reality. Using this model we build up a map of Office Automation to be use^not only by managers but also by technicians because the primaty advantage of such a framework is that it allows a comprehensive evaluation of technology without requhing extensive technical knowledge. Thus, the model can be seen as principle for design and diagnosis of Office Automation and as a common reference for managers and specialist avoiding the severe limitations arising from the language used by the last

Diagnosis and Management of Grain-Induced Asthma

Grain-induced asthma is a frequent occupational allergic disease mainly caused by inhalation of cereal flour or powder. The main professions affected are bakers, confectioners, pastry factory workers, millers, farmers, and cereal handlers. This disorder is usually due to an IgE-mediated allergic response to inhalation of cereal flour proteins. The major causative allergens of grain-related asthma are proteins derived from wheat, rye and barley flour, although baking additives, such as fungal α-amylase are also important. This review deals with the current diagnosis and treatment of grain-induced asthma, emphasizing the role of cereal allergens as molecular tools to enhance diagnosis and management of this disorder. Asthma-like symptoms caused by endotoxin exposure among grain workers are beyond the scope of this review. Progress is being made in the characterization of grain and bakery allergens, particularly cereal-derived allergens, as well as in the standardization of allergy tests. Salt-soluble proteins (albumins plus globulins), particularly members of the α-amylase/trypsin inhibitor family, thioredoxins, peroxidase, lipid transfer protein and other soluble enzymes show the strongest IgE reactivities in wheat flour. In addition, prolamins (not extractable by salt solutions) have also been claimed as potential allergens. However, the large variability of IgE-binding patterns of cereal proteins among patients with grain-induced asthma, together with the great differences in the concentrations of potential allergens observed in commercial cereal extracts used for diagnosis, highlight the necessity to standardize and improve the diagnostic tools. Removal from exposure to the offending agents is the cornerstone of the management of grain-induced asthma. The availability of purified allergens should be very helpful for a more refined diagnosis, and new immunomodulatory treatments, including allergen immunotherapy and biological drugs, should aid in the management of patients with this disorder.

Lessons learned on home energy monitoring and management: Smartcity Málaga

The Smartcity Málaga project is one of Europe?s largest ecoefficient city initiatives. The project has implemented a field trial in 50 households to study the effects of energy monitoring and management technologies on the residential electricity consumption. This poster presents some lessons learned on energy consumption trends, smart clamps reliability and the suitability of power contracted by users, obtained after six months of data analysis.

Planning and Management of Mobility in Natural Protected Areas

The paper describes some relevant results of an on-going research aiming to elaborate a methodology to help the mobility management in natural parks, compatible with their protection missions: it has been developed a procedure to reproduce the mobility-environment relationships in various operational conditions. The final purpose is the identification of: a) the effects of various choices in transport planning, both at long term and strategic level; b) the most effective policies of mobility management. The work is articulated in the following steps: 1) definition of protected area on the basis of ecological and socio-economic criteria and legislative constraints; 2) analysis of mobility needs in the protected areas; 3) reconstruction of the state of the art of mobility management in natural parks at European level; 4) analysis of used traffic flows measurement methods; 5) analysis of environmental impacts due to transport systems modelling (air pollution and noise only); 6) identification of mitigation measures to be potentially applied. The whole methodology has been tested and validated on Italian case studies: i) the concerned area has been zoned according to the land-use peculiarities; ii) the local situations of transport infrastructure (roads and parking), services (public transport systems) and rules (traffic regulations) have been mapped with references to physical and functional attributes; iii) the mobility, both systematic and touristic, has been represented in an origin-destination matrix. By means of an assignment model the flows have been distributed and the corresponding average speeds to quantify gaseous and noise emissions was calculated, the criticalities in the reference scenario have been highlighted, as well as some alternative scenarios, including both operational and infrastructural measures have been identified. The comparison between projects and reference scenario allowed the quantification of effects (variation of emissions) for each scenario and a selection of the most effective management actions to be taken.

Planning and management of mobility in natural protected areas

The final purpose is the identification of: a) the effects of various choices in transport planning, both at long term and strategic level; b) the most effective policies of mobility management. The preliminary work was articulated in the following steps: 1) definition of protected area on the basis of ecological and socio-economic criteria and legislative constraints; 2) analysis of mobility needs in the protected areas; 3) reconstruction of the state of the art of mobility management in natural parks at European level; 4) analysis of used traffic flows measurement methods; 5) analysis of environmental impacts due to transport systems modelling (limited to air pollution and noise); 6) identification of mitigation measures to the potentially applied. The whole methodology has been firstly tested on the case study of the National Park of ?Gran Sasso and Monti della Laga? and further validated on the National Park of ?Gargano?, both located Italy: i) the concerned area has been zoned according to the land-use peculiarities; ii) the local situations of transport infrastructure (roads and parking), services (public transport systems) and rules (traffic regulations) have been mapped with references to physical and functional attributes; iii) the mobility, both systematic and touristic, has been synthetically represented in an origin-destination matrix. By means of an assignment model it has been determined the distribution of flows and the corresponding average speeds to quantify gaseous and noise emissions. On this basis the environmental criticalities in the reference scenario have been highlighted, as well as some alternative scenarios including both operational and infrastructural measures have been identified. The comparison between the projects and the reference scenario allowed the quantification of the effects (variation of emissions) for each scenario and a selection of the most effective management actions to be taken.

Clinical presentation, allergens, and management of wheat allergy

IgE-mediated allergy to wheat proteins can be caused by exposure through ingestion, inhalation, or skin/mucosal contact, and can affect various populations and age groups. Respiratory allergy to wheat proteins is commonly observed in adult patients occupationally exposed to flour, whereas wheat food allergy is more common in children. Wheat allergy is of growing importance for patients with recurrent anaphylaxis, especially when exercise related. The diagnosis of wheat allergy relies on a consistent clinical history, skin prick testing with well-characterized extracts and specific IgE tests. The accuracy of wheat allergy diagnosis may be improved by measuring IgE responses to several wheat components. However, a high degree of heterogeneity has been found in the recognition pattern of allergens among patient groups with different clinical profiles, as well as within each group. Thus, oral provocation with wheat or the implicated cereal is the reference test for the definitive diagnosis of ingested wheat/cereal allergy.

Implications of applying widely accepted cholesterol screening and management guidelines to a British adult population: cross sectional study of cardiovascular disease and risk factors

Objective: To compare the implications of four widely used cholesterol screening and treatment guidelines by applying them to a population in the United Kingdom.

Optic neuritis in pediatric population: A review in current tendencies of diagnosis and management

Optic neuritis is an inflammation of the optic nerve and may be related to different systemic conditions. The clinical presentation of this pathology usually includes sudden loss of visual acuity (VA) which may be unilateral or bilateral, visual field restriction, pain with eye movements, dyschromatopsia, a relative afferent pupillary defect and optic disk swelling. Optic neuritis in children has specific clinical features and a better prognosis than in adulthood. Although usually appears an underlying viral disease, the main concern for practitioners is the relationship of optic neuritis with multiple sclerosis. In addition to the classical techniques as magnetic resonance imaging (MRI), current tendencies of diagnosis for eye practitioners include new imaging devices as optical coherence tomography (OCT), useful to show a thinning of the retinal fibers layer (RFL) after the inflammatory episode. Regarding the management of these patients, short-term intravenous steroid dosages seem to be the best option to treat acute attacks characterized by a very poor bilateral VA.

Use of an Inverse Method for Time Series to Estimate the Dynamics of and Management Strategies for the Box Jellyfish Carybdea marsupialis

Frequently, population ecology of marine organisms uses a descriptive approach in which their sizes and densities are plotted over time. This approach has limited usefulness for design strategies in management or modelling different scenarios. Population projection matrix models are among the most widely used tools in ecology. Unfortunately, for the majority of pelagic marine organisms, it is difficult to mark individuals and follow them over time to determine their vital rates and built a population projection matrix model. Nevertheless, it is possible to get time-series data to calculate size structure and densities of each size, in order to determine the matrix parameters. This approach is known as a “demographic inverse problem” and it is based on quadratic programming methods, but it has rarely been used on aquatic organisms. We used unpublished field data of a population of cubomedusae Carybdea marsupialis to construct a population projection matrix model and compare two different management strategies to lower population to values before year 2008 when there was no significant interaction with bathers. Those strategies were by direct removal of medusae and by reducing prey. Our results showed that removal of jellyfish from all size classes was more effective than removing only juveniles or adults. When reducing prey, the highest efficiency to lower the C. marsupialis population occurred when prey depletion affected prey of all medusae sizes. Our model fit well with the field data and may serve to design an efficient management strategy or build hypothetical scenarios such as removal of individuals or reducing prey. TThis This sdfsdshis method is applicable to other marine or terrestrial species, for which density and population structure over time are available.