Quantifying the gap between policy and practice in cardiovascular risk reduction: a review of evidence from recent cardiovascular and diabetes audits in the UK

As part of CHD NSF implementation, a pilot project is being undertaken under the auspices of the National Screening Committee to test the practical implications and outcomes of implementing a systematic programme of cardiovascular risk reduction in primary care, initially identifying those at high risk due to pre-existing cardiovascular disease or diabetes. To assist in assessing the magnitude of the challenge faced by the pilot programmes, the UK National Screening Committee (NSC) commissioned a review of current practice based on recent cardiovascular and diabetes audits in the UK. This report details the findings of the review, providing 6 key recommendations for future cardiovascular audits.

Hepatitis B virus infection profile in hemodialysis patients in Central Brazil: prevalence, risk factors, and genotypes

Hemodialysis patients are at high risk for hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection. A survey was conducted in the hemodialysis population of the state of Goiás, Central Brazil, aiming to assess the prevalence of HBV infection, to analyse associated risk factors, and also to investigate HBV genotypes distribution. A total of 1095 patients were interviewed in 15 dialysis units. Serum samples were screened for HBV serological markers by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay. Hepatitis B surface antigen (HBsAg) positive samples were tested for HBV DNA by polymerase chain reaction and genotyped by restriction fragment length polymorphism. Global HBV infection prevalence was 29.8% (95% CI: 27.1-32.5). Multivariate analysis of risk factors showed that male gender, length of time on hemodialysis, and blood transfusion before 1993 were associated with HBV positivity. HBV DNA was detected in 65.4% (17/26) of the HBsAg-positive samples. Thirteen of 17 HBV DNA positive samples were genotyped. Genotype D (61.5%) was predominant, followed by A (30.8%), while genotype F was detected in only one (7.7%) sample.

A preliminary evaluation of the validity of at-risk criteria for bipolar disorders in help-seeking adolescents and young adults.

INTRODUCTION: We have developed ultra-high risk criteria for bipolar affective disorder (bipolar at-risk - BAR) which include general criteria such as being in the peak age range of the onset of the disorder and a combination of specific criteria including sub-threshold mania, depressive symptoms, cyclothymic features and genetic risk. In the current study, the predictive validity of these criteria were tested in help-seeking adolescents and young adults. METHOD: This medical file-audit study was conducted at ORYGEN Youth Health (OYH), a public mental health program for young people aged between 15 and 24years and living in metropolitan Melbourne, Australia. BAR criteria were applied to the intake assessments of all non-psychotic patients who were being treated in OYH on 31 January, 2008. All entries were then checked for conversion criteria. Hypomania/mania related additions or alterations to existing treatments or initiation of new treatment by the treating psychiatrist served as conversion criteria to mania. RESULTS: The BAR criteria were applied to 173 intake assessments. Of these, 22 patients (12.7%) met BAR criteria. The follow-up period of the sample was 265.5days on average (SD 214.7). There were significantly more cases in the BAR group (22.7%, n=5) than in the non-BAR group (0.7%, n=1) who met conversion criteria (p<.001). CONCLUSIONS: These findings support the notion that people who develop a first episode of mania can be identified during the prodromal phase. The proposed criteria need further evaluation in prospective clinical trials.

Behaviour evaluation for risk-taking adolescents (BERTA): an easy to use and assess instrument to detect adolescent risky behaviours in a clinical setting.

To create an instrument to be used in an outpatient clinic to detect adolescents prone to risk-taking behaviours. Based on previous research, five identified variables (relationship with parents and teachers, liking going to school, average grades, and level of religiosity) were used to create a screening tool to detect at least one of ten risky behaviours (tobacco, alcohol, cannabis and other illegal drugs use; sexual intercourse and sexual risky behaviour; driving while intoxicated, riding with an intoxicated driver, not always using a seat belt, and not always using a helmet). The instrument was tested using the Barcelona Adolescent Health Survey 1993. A Receiver Operating Characteristics curve was used to find the best cut-off point between high and low risk score. Odds ratios and 95% confidence intervals were calculated to detect at least one risky behaviour and for each individual behaviour. In order to assess its predictive value, the analysis was repeated using the Barcelona Adolescent Health Survey 1999. In both cases, analyses were conducted for the whole sample and for younger and older adolescents. Adolescents with a high-risk score were more likely to take at least one risky behaviour both when the whole sample was analysed and by age groups. With very few exceptions, the Behaviour Evaluation for Risk-Taking Adolescents showed significant odds ratios for each individual variable. CONCLUSION: The Behaviour Evaluation for Risk-Taking Adolescents has shown its potential as an easy to use instrument to screen for risk-taking behaviours. Future research must aim towards assessing this instrument's predictive value in the clinical setting and it's application to other populations.

Risk of falls and bleeding in elderly patients with acute venous thromboembolism.

OBJECTIVE: Whether or not a high risk of falls increases the risk of bleeding in patients receiving anticoagulants remains a matter of debate. METHODS: We conducted a prospective cohort study involving 991 patients ≥65 years of age who received anticoagulants for acute venous thromboembolism (VTE) at nine Swiss hospitals between September 2009 and September 2012. The study outcomes were as follows: the time to a first major episode of bleeding; and clinically relevant nonmajor bleeding. We determined the associations between the risk of falls and the time to a first episode of bleeding using competing risk regression, accounting for death as a competing event. We adjusted for known bleeding risk factors and anticoagulation as a time-varying covariate. RESULTS: Four hundred fifty-eight of 991 patients (46%) were at high risk of falls. The mean duration of follow-up was 16.7 months. Patients at high risk of falls had a higher incidence of major bleeding (9.6 vs. 6.6 events/100 patient-years; P = 0.05) and a significantly higher incidence of clinically relevant nonmajor bleeding (16.7 vs. 8.3 events/100 patient-years; P < 0.001) than patients at low risk of falls. After adjustment, a high risk of falls was associated with clinically relevant nonmajor bleeding [subhazard ratio (SHR) = 1.74, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.23-2.46], but not with major bleeding (SHR = 1.24, 95% CI = 0.83-1.86). CONCLUSION: In elderly patients who receive anticoagulants because of VTE, a high risk of falls is significantly associated with clinically relevant nonmajor bleeding, but not with major bleeding. Whether or not a high risk of falls is a reason against providing anticoagulation beyond 3 months should be based on patient preferences and the risk of VTE recurrence.

Long-term risk of incident type 2 diabetes and measures of overall and regional obesity: the EPIC-InterAct case-cohort study

BACKGROUND Waist circumference (WC) is a simple and reliable measure of fat distribution that may add to the prediction of type 2 diabetes (T2D), but previous studies have been too small to reliably quantify the relative and absolute risk of future diabetes by WC at different levels of body mass index (BMI). METHODS AND FINDINGS The prospective InterAct case-cohort study was conducted in 26 centres in eight European countries and consists of 12,403 incident T2D cases and a stratified subcohort of 16,154 individuals from a total cohort of 340,234 participants with 3.99 million person-years of follow-up. We used Prentice-weighted Cox regression and random effects meta-analysis methods to estimate hazard ratios for T2D. Kaplan-Meier estimates of the cumulative incidence of T2D were calculated. BMI and WC were each independently associated with T2D, with WC being a stronger risk factor in women than in men. Risk increased across groups defined by BMI and WC; compared to low normal weight individuals (BMI 18.5-22.4 kg/m(2)) with a low WC (<94/80 cm in men/women), the hazard ratio of T2D was 22.0 (95% confidence interval 14.3; 33.8) in men and 31.8 (25.2; 40.2) in women with grade 2 obesity (BMI≥35 kg/m(2)) and a high WC (>102/88 cm). Among the large group of overweight individuals, WC measurement was highly informative and facilitated the identification of a subgroup of overweight people with high WC whose 10-y T2D cumulative incidence (men, 70 per 1,000 person-years; women, 44 per 1,000 person-years) was comparable to that of the obese group (50-103 per 1,000 person-years in men and 28-74 per 1,000 person-years in women). CONCLUSIONS WC is independently and strongly associated with T2D, particularly in women, and should be more widely measured for risk stratification. If targeted measurement is necessary for reasons of resource scarcity, measuring WC in overweight individuals may be an effective strategy, since it identifies a high-risk subgroup of individuals who could benefit from individualised preventive action.

Development and validation of a risk score predicting substantial weight gain over 5 years in middle-aged European men and women.

BACKGROUND Identifying individuals at high risk of excess weight gain may help targeting prevention efforts at those at risk of various metabolic diseases associated with weight gain. Our aim was to develop a risk score to identify these individuals and validate it in an external population. METHODS We used lifestyle and nutritional data from 53°758 individuals followed for a median of 5.4 years from six centers of the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) to develop a risk score to predict substantial weight gain (SWG) for the next 5 years (derivation sample). Assuming linear weight gain, SWG was defined as gaining ≥ 10% of baseline weight during follow-up. Proportional hazards models were used to identify significant predictors of SWG separately by EPIC center. Regression coefficients of predictors were pooled using random-effects meta-analysis. Pooled coefficients were used to assign weights to each predictor. The risk score was calculated as a linear combination of the predictors. External validity of the score was evaluated in nine other centers of the EPIC study (validation sample). RESULTS Our final model included age, sex, baseline weight, level of education, baseline smoking, sports activity, alcohol use, and intake of six food groups. The model's discriminatory ability measured by the area under a receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.64 (95% CI = 0.63-0.65) in the derivation sample and 0.57 (95% CI = 0.56-0.58) in the validation sample, with variation between centers. Positive and negative predictive values for the optimal cut-off value of ≥ 200 points were 9% and 96%, respectively. CONCLUSION The present risk score confidently excluded a large proportion of individuals from being at any appreciable risk to develop SWG within the next 5 years. Future studies, however, may attempt to further refine the positive prediction of the score.

Gender differences in cardiovascular risk factors in HIV infected patients on antiretroviral therapy: Data from the Spanish Coronator study.

Purpose: HIV-infected patients present an increased cardiovascular risk (CVR) of multifactorial origin, usually lower in women than in men. Information by gender about prevalence of modifiable risk factors is scarce. Methods: Coronator is a cross-sectional survey of a representative sample of HIV-infected patients on ART within 10 hospitals across Spain in 2011. Variables include sociodemographics, CVR factors and 10-year CV disease risk estimation (Regicor: Framingham score adapted to the Spanish population). Results: We included 860 patients (76.3% male) with no history of CVD. Median age 45.6 years; 84.1% were Spaniards; 29.9% women were IDUs. Median time since HIV diagnosis for men and women was 10 and 13 years (p=0.001), 28% had an AIDS diagnosis. Median CD4 cell count was 596 cells/mm3, 88% had undetectable viral load. Median time on ART was 91 and 108 months (p=0.017). There was a family history of early CVD in 113 men (17.9%) and 41 women (20.6%). Classical CVR factors are described in the table. Median (IQR) Regicor Score was 3% (2-5) for men and 2% (1-3) for women (p=0.000), and the proportion of subjects with mid-high risk (>5%) was 26.1% for men and 9.4% for women (p=0.000). Conclusions: In this population of HIV-infected patients, women have lower cardiovascular risk than men, partly due to higher levels of HDL cholesterol. Of note is the high frequency of smoking, abdominal obesity and sedentary lifestyle in our population. (Table Presented).

Polyarthrite rhumatoïde et grossesse [Rheumatoid arthritis and pregnancy]

Rheumatoid arthritis occurs frequently in women in childbearing years. With the improvement of the treatments, more patients with rheumatoid arthritis consider a pregnancy. Close co-operation between the physician and the obstetrician caring for the mother and the foetus is necessary. The disease should be well controlled at the time of the conception, although an amelioration of rheumatoid arthritis occurs in about 75% of pregnancies, in the first trimester. Some medications can be used during pregnancy and lactation. There is no indication of any adverse effects of rheumatoid arthritis on pregnancy outcome. The mother needs to be followed up regularly after delivery because of the high risk of post-partum flare.

Prevalence of human papillomavirus infection, distribution of viral types and risk factors in cervical samples from human immunodeficiency virus-positive women attending three human immunodeficiency virus-acquired immune deficiency syndrome reference centres in northeastern Brazil

Human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-positive patients have a greater prevalence of coinfection with human papillomavirus (HPV) is of high oncogenic risk. Indeed, the presence of the virus favours intraepithelial squamous cell lesion progression and may induce cancer. The aim of this study was to evaluate the prevalence of HPV infection, distribution of HPV types and risk factors among HIV-positive patients. Cervical samples from 450 HIV-positive patients were analysed with regard to oncotic cytology, colposcopy and HPV presence and type by means of polymerase chain reaction and sequencing. The results were analysed by comparing demographic data and data relating to HPV and HIV infection. The prevalence of HPV was 47.5%. Among the HPV-positive samples, 59% included viral types of high oncogenic risk. Multivariate analysis showed an association between HPV infection and the presence of cytological alterations (p = 0.003), age greater than or equal to 35 years (p = 0.002), number of partners greater than three (p = 0.002), CD4+ lymphocyte count < 200/mm3 (p = 0.041) and alcohol abuse (p = 0.004). Although high-risk HPV was present in the majority of the lesions studied, the low frequency of HPV 16 (3.3%), low occurrence of cervical lesions and preserved immunological state in most of the HIV-positive patients were factors that may explain the low occurrence of precancerous cervical lesions in this population.

Respiratory syncytial virus seasonality in Brazil: implications for the immunisation policy for at-risk populations

Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) infection is the leading cause of hospitalisation for respiratory diseases among children under 5 years old. The aim of this study was to analyse RSV seasonality in the five distinct regions of Brazil using time series analysis (wavelet and Fourier series) of the following indicators: monthly positivity of the immunofluorescence reaction for RSV identified by virologic surveillance system, and rate of hospitalisations per bronchiolitis and pneumonia due to RSV in children under 5 years old (codes CID-10 J12.1, J20.5, J21.0 and J21.9). A total of 12,501 samples with 11.6% positivity for RSV (95% confidence interval 11 - 12.2), varying between 7.1 and 21.4% in the five Brazilian regions, was analysed. A strong trend for annual cycles with a stable stationary pattern in the five regions was identified through wavelet analysis of the indicators. The timing of RSV activity by Fourier analysis was similar between the two indicators analysed and showed regional differences. This study reinforces the importance of adjusting the immunisation period for high risk population with the monoclonal antibody palivizumab taking into account regional differences in seasonality of RSV.

Occurrence, risk factors, diagnosis and treatment of syphilis in the prospective observational Swiss HIV Cohort Study.

BACKGROUND: Annual syphilis testing was reintroduced in the Swiss HIV Cohort Study (SHCS) in 2004. We prospectively studied occurrence, risk factors, clinical manifestations, diagnostic approaches and treatment of syphilis. METHODS: Over a period of 33 months, participants with positive test results for Treponema pallidum hemagglutination assay were studied using the SHCS database and an additional structured case report form. RESULTS: Of 7244 cohort participants, 909 (12.5%) had positive syphilis serology. Among these, 633 had previously been treated and had no current signs or symptoms of syphilis at time of testing. Of 218 patients with newly detected untreated syphilis, 20% reported genitooral contacts as only risk behavior and 60% were asymptomatic. Newly detected syphilis was more frequent among men who have sex with men (MSM) [adjusted odds ratio (OR) 2.8, P < 0.001], in persons reporting casual sexual partners (adjusted OR 2.8, P < 0.001) and in MSM of younger age (P = 0.05). Only 35% of recommended cerebrospinal fluid (CFS) examinations were performed. Neurosyphilis was diagnosed in four neurologically asymptomatic patients; all of them had a Venereal Disease Research Laboratory (VDRL) titer of 1:>or=32. Ninety-one percent of the patients responded to treatment with at least a four-fold decline in VDRL titer. CONCLUSION: Syphilis remains an important coinfection in the SHCS justifying reintroduction of routine screening. Genitooral contact is a significant way of transmission and young MSM are at high risk for syphilis. Current guidelines to rule out neurosyphilis by CSF analysis are inconsistently followed in clinical practice. Serologic treatment response is above 90% in the era of combination antiretroviral therapy.

A clinical prognostic model for the identification of low-risk patients with acute symptomatic pulmonary embolism and active cancer.

BACKGROUND: Physicians need a specific risk-stratification tool to facilitate safe and cost-effective approaches to the management of patients with cancer and acute pulmonary embolism (PE). The objective of this study was to develop a simple risk score for predicting 30-day mortality in patients with PE and cancer by using measures readily obtained at the time of PE diagnosis. METHODS: Investigators randomly allocated 1,556 consecutive patients with cancer and acute PE from the international multicenter Registro Informatizado de la Enfermedad TromboEmbólica to derivation (67%) and internal validation (33%) samples. The external validation cohort for this study consisted of 261 patients with cancer and acute PE. Investigators compared 30-day all-cause mortality and nonfatal adverse medical outcomes across the derivation and two validation samples. RESULTS: In the derivation sample, multivariable analyses produced the risk score, which contained six variables: age > 80 years, heart rate ≥ 110/min, systolic BP < 100 mm Hg, body weight < 60 kg, recent immobility, and presence of metastases. In the internal validation cohort (n = 508), the 22.2% of patients (113 of 508) classified as low risk by the prognostic model had a 30-day mortality of 4.4% (95% CI, 0.6%-8.2%) compared with 29.9% (95% CI, 25.4%-34.4%) in the high-risk group. In the external validation cohort, the 18% of patients (47 of 261) classified as low risk by the prognostic model had a 30-day mortality of 0%, compared with 19.6% (95% CI, 14.3%-25.0%) in the high-risk group. CONCLUSIONS: The developed clinical prediction rule accurately identifies low-risk patients with cancer and acute PE.

Disaster Risk, Livelihoods and Natural Barriers, Strengthening Decision-Making Tools for Disaster Risk Reduction: A case study from northern Pakistan

The goal of this interdisciplinary study is to better understand the land use factors that increase vulnerability of mountain areas in northern Pakistan. The study will identify and analyse the damages and losses caused by the October 2005 earthquake in two areas of the same valley: one "low-risk" watershed with sound natural resources management, the other, "high-risk" in an ecologically degraded watershed. Secondly, the study will examine natural and man-made causes of secondary hazards in the study area, especially landslides; and third it will evaluate the cost of the earthquake damage in the study areas on the livelihoods of local communities and the sub-regional economy. There are few interdisciplinary studies to have correlated community land use practices, resources management, and disaster risk reduction in high-risk mountain areas. By better understanding these linkages, development- humanitarian- and donor agencies focused on disaster reduction can improve their risk reduction programs for mountainous regions.

Healthy Iowans 2010 Mid-Course Revision, July 2005

In the past century, public health has been credited with adding 25 years to life expectancy by contributing to the decline in illness and injury. Progress has been made, for example, in smoking reduction, infectious disease, and motor vehicle and workplace injuries. Besides its focus on traditional concerns such as clean water and safe food, public health is adapting to meet emerging health problems. Particular troublesome are health threats to youth: teenage pregnancies, violence, substance abuse, sexually transmitted diseases, and other conditions associated with high-risk behaviors. These threats add to burgeoning health care costs. A conservative estimate of $69 billion in medical spending could be averted through the impact of public health strategies aimed at heart disease, stroke, fatal and nonfatal occupational injuries, motor vehicle-related injuries, low birth weight, and violence. These strategies require the collaboration of many groups in the public and private sectors. Collaboration is the bedrock of public health and Healthy Iowans planning. At the core of Healthy Iowans 2000 and its successor, Healthy Iowans 2010, is the idea that all Iowans benefit when stakeholders decide on disease prevention and health promotion strategies and agree to work together on them. These strategies can improve the quality of life and hold down health care costs. The payoff for health promotion and disease prevention is not immediate, but it has long-lasting benefits. The Iowa plan is a companion to the national plan, Healthy People 2010. An initiative to improve the health of Americans, the national plan is the driving force for federal resource allocation for disease prevention and health promotion. The state plan is used in the same way. Both plans have received broad support from Republican and Democratic administrations. Community planners are using the state plan to help assess health needs and craft health improvement plans. Healthy Iowans 2010 was written at an unusual point in history – a new decade, a new century, a new millennium. The introduction was optimistic. “The 21st century,” it says, “promises to add life as well as years through improved health habits coupled with medical advances. Scientists have suggested that if these changes occur, the definition of adulthood will also change. An extraordinary number of people will live fuller, more active lives beyond that expected in the late 20th century.” At the same time, the country has spawned a new generation of health hazards. According to Dr. William Dietz of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), it has replaced “the diseases of deficiency with diseases of excess” (Newsweek, August 2, 1999). New threats, such as childhood overweight, can reverse progress made in the last century. This demands concerted action.