Expert systems for fault analysis

The initial aim of this research was to investigate the application of expert Systems, or Knowledge Base Systems technology to the automated synthesis of Hazard and Operability Studies. Due to the generic nature of Fault Analysis problems and the way in which Knowledge Base Systems work, this goal has evolved into a consideration of automated support for Fault Analysis in general, covering HAZOP, Fault Tree Analysis, FMEA and Fault Diagnosis in the Process Industries. This thesis described a proposed architecture for such an Expert System. The purpose of the System is to produce a descriptive model of faults and fault propagation from a description of the physical structure of the plant. From these descriptive models, the desired Fault Analysis may be produced. The way in which this is done reflects the complexity of the problem which, in principle, encompasses the whole of the discipline of Process Engineering. An attempt is made to incorporate the perceived method that an expert uses to solve the problem; keywords, heuristics and guidelines from techniques such as HAZOP and Fault Tree Synthesis are used. In a truly Expert System, the performance of the system is strongly dependent on the high quality of the knowledge that is incorporated. This expert knowledge takes the form of heuristics or rules of thumb which are used in problem solving. This research has shown that, for the application of fault analysis heuristics, it is necessary to have a representation of the details of fault propagation within a process. This helps to ensure the robustness of the system - a gradual rather than abrupt degradation at the boundaries of the domain knowledge.

An investigation into the use of knowledge representation in computer-integrated manufacturing

In a certain automobile factory, batch-painting of the body types in colours is controlled by an allocation system. This tries to balance production with orders, whilst making optimally-sized batches of colours. Sequences of cars entering painting cannot be optimised for easy selection of colour and batch size. `Over-production' is not allowed, in order to reduce buffer stocks of unsold vehicles. Paint quality is degraded by random effects. This thesis describes a toolkit which supports IKBS in an object-centred formalism. The intended domain of use for the toolkit is flexible manufacturing. A sizeable application program was developed, using the toolkit, to test the validity of the IKBS approach in solving the real manufacturing problem above, for which an existing conventional program was already being used. A detailed statistical analysis of the operating circumstances of the program was made to evaluate the likely need for the more flexible type of program for which the toolkit was intended. The IKBS program captures the many disparate and conflicting constraints in the scheduling knowledge and emulates the behaviour of the program installed in the factory. In the factory system, many possible, newly-discovered, heuristics would be awkward to represent and it would be impossible to make many new extensions. The representation scheme is capable of admitting changes to the knowledge, relying on the inherent encapsulating properties of object-centres programming to protect and isolate data. The object-centred scheme is supported by an enhancement of the `C' programming language and runs under BSD 4.2 UNIX. The structuring technique, using objects, provides a mechanism for separating control of expression of rule-based knowledge from the knowledge itself and allowing explicit `contexts', within which appropriate expression of knowledge can be done. Facilities are provided for acquisition of knowledge in a consistent manner.

A study of the problem solving strategies used by expert and novice designers

This research project focused upon the design strategies adopted by expert and novice designers. It was based upon a desire to compare the design problem solving strategies of novices, in this case key stage three pupils studying technolgy within the United Kingdom National Curriculum, with designers who could be considered to have developed expertise. The findings helped to provide insights into potential teaching strategies to suit novice designers. Verbal protocols were made as samples of expert and novice designers solved a design problem and talked aloud as they worked. The verbalisations were recorded on video tape. The protocols were transcribed and segmented, with each segment being assigned to a predetermined coding system which represented a model of design problem solving. The results of the encoding were analysed and consideration was also given to the general design strategy and heuristics used by the expert and novice designers. The drawings and models produced during the generation of the protocols were also analysed and considered. A number of significant differences between the problem solving strategies adopted by the expert and novice designers were identified. First of all, differences were observed in the way expert and novice designers used the problem statement and solution validation during the process. Differences were also identified in the way holistic solutions were generated near the start of the process, and also in the cycles of exploration and the processes of integration. The way design and technological knowledge was used provided further insights into the differences between experts and novices, as did the role of drawing and modelling during the process. In more general terms, differences were identified in the heuristics and overall design strategies adopted by the expert and novice designers. The above findings provided a basis for discussing teaching strategies appropriate for novice designers. Finally, opportunities for future research were discussed.

Cost models for engineering services

This thesis describes the procedure and results from four years research undertaken through the IHD (Interdisciplinary Higher Degrees) Scheme at Aston University in Birmingham, sponsored by the SERC (Science and Engineering Research Council) and Monk Dunstone Associates, Chartered Quantity Surveyors. A stochastic networking technique VERT (Venture Evaluation and Review Technique) was used to model the pre-tender costs of public health, heating ventilating, air-conditioning, fire protection, lifts and electrical installations within office developments. The model enabled the quantity surveyor to analyse, manipulate and explore complex scenarios which previously had defied ready mathematical analysis. The process involved the examination of historical material costs, labour factors and design performance data. Components and installation types were defined and formatted. Data was updated and adjusted using mechanical and electrical pre-tender cost indices and location, selection of contractor, contract sum, height and site condition factors. Ranges of cost, time and performance data were represented by probability density functions and defined by constant, uniform, normal and beta distributions. These variables and a network of the interrelationships between services components provided the framework for analysis. The VERT program, in this particular study, relied upon Monte Carlo simulation to model the uncertainties associated with pre-tender estimates of all possible installations. The computer generated output in the form of relative and cumulative frequency distributions of current element and total services costs, critical path analyses and details of statistical parameters. From this data alternative design solutions were compared, the degree of risk associated with estimates was determined, heuristics were tested and redeveloped, and cost significant items were isolated for closer examination. The resultant models successfully combined cost, time and performance factors and provided the quantity surveyor with an appreciation of the cost ranges associated with the various engineering services design options.

Palette-colouring: a belief propagation approach

We consider a variation of the prototype combinatorial optimization problem known as graph colouring. Our optimization goal is to colour the vertices of a graph with a fixed number of colours, in a way to maximize the number of different colours present in the set of nearest neighbours of each given vertex. This problem, which we pictorially call palette-colouring, has been recently addressed as a basic example of a problem arising in the context of distributed data storage. Even though it has not been proved to be NP-complete, random search algorithms find the problem hard to solve. Heuristics based on a naive belief propagation algorithm are observed to work quite well in certain conditions. In this paper, we build upon the mentioned result, working out the correct belief propagation algorithm, which needs to take into account the many-body nature of the constraints present in this problem. This method improves the naive belief propagation approach at the cost of increased computational effort. We also investigate the emergence of a satisfiable-to-unsatisfiable 'phase transition' as a function of the vertex mean degree, for different ensembles of sparse random graphs in the large size ('thermodynamic') limit.

Effect of fatigue on consumers' advertising processing

Huge advertising budgets are invested by firms to reach and convince potential consumers to buy their products. To optimize these investments, it is fundamental not only to ensure that appropriate consumers will be reached, but also that they will be in appropriate reception conditions. Marketing research has focused on the way consumers react to advertising, as well as on some individual and contextual factors that could mediate or moderate the ad impact on consumers (e.g. motivation and ability to process information or attitudes toward advertising). Nevertheless, a factor that potentially influences consumers’ advertising reactions has not yet been studied in marketing research: fatigue. Fatigue can yet impact key variables of advertising processing, such as cognitive resources availability (Lieury 2004). Fatigue is felt when the body warns to stop an activity (or inactivity) to have some rest, allowing the individual to compensate for fatigue effects. Dittner et al. (2004) defines it as “the state of weariness following a period of exertion, mental or physical, characterized by a decreased capacity for work and reduced efficiency to respond to stimuli.’’ It signals that resources will lack if we continue with the ongoing activity. According to Schmidtke (1969), fatigue leads to troubles in information reception, in perception, in coordination, in attention getting, in concentration and in thinking. In addition, for Markle (1984) fatigue generates a decrease in memory, and in communication ability, whereas it increases time reaction, and number of errors. Thus, fatigue may have large effects on advertising processing. We suggest that fatigue determines the level of available resources. Some research about consumer responses to advertising claim that complexity is a fundamental element to take into consideration. Complexity determines the cognitive efforts the consumer must provide to understand the message (Putrevu et al. 2004). Thus, we suggest that complexity determines the level of required resources. To study this complex question about need and provision of cognitive resources, we draw upon Resource Matching Theory. Anand and Sternthal (1989, 1990) are the first to state the Resource Matching principle, saying that an ad is most persuasive when the resources required to process it match the resources the viewer is willing and able to provide. They show that when the required resources exceed those available, the message is not entirely processed by the consumer. And when there are too many available resources comparing to those required, the viewer elaborates critical or unrelated thoughts. According to the Resource Matching theory, the level of resource demanded by an ad can be high or low, and is mostly determined by the ad’s layout (Peracchio and Myers-Levy, 1997). We manipulate the level of required resources using three levels of ad complexity (low – high – extremely high). On the other side, the resource availability of an ad viewer is determined by lots of contextual and individual variables. We manipulate the level of available resources using two levels of fatigue (low – high). Tired viewers want to limit the processing effort to minimal resource requirements by making heuristics, forming overall impression at first glance. It will be easier for them to decode the message when ads are very simple. On the contrary, the most effective ads for viewers who are not tired are complex enough to draw their attention and fully use their resources. They will use more analytical strategies, looking at the details of the ad. However, if ads are too complex, they will be too difficult to understand. The viewer will be discouraged to process information and will overlook the ad. The objective of our research is to study fatigue as a moderating variable of advertising information processing. We run two experimental studies to assess the effect of fatigue on visual strategies, comprehension, persuasion and memorization. In study 1, thirty-five undergraduate students enrolled in a marketing research course participated in the experiment. The experimental design is 2 (tiredness level: between subjects) x 3 (ad complexity level: within subjects). Participants were randomly assigned a schedule time (morning: 8-10 am or evening: 10-12 pm) to perform the experiment. We chose to test subjects at various moments of the day to obtain maximum variance in their fatigue level. We use Morningness / Eveningness tendency of participants (Horne & Ostberg, 1976) as a control variable. We assess fatigue level using subjective measures - questionnaire with fatigue scales - and objective measures - reaction time and number of errors. Regarding complexity levels, we have designed our own ads in order to keep aspects other than complexity equal. We ran a pretest using the Resource Demands scale (Keller and Bloch 1997) and by rating them on complexity like Morrison and Dainoff (1972) to check for our complexity manipulation. We found three significantly different levels. After having completed the fatigue scales, participants are asked to view the ads on a screen, while their eye movements are recorded by the eye-tracker. Eye-tracking allows us to find out patterns of visual attention (Pieters and Warlop 1999). We are then able to infer specific respondents’ visual strategies according to their level of fatigue. Comprehension is assessed with a comprehension test. We collect measures of attitude change for persuasion and measures of recall and recognition at various points of time for memorization. Once the effect of fatigue will be determined across the student population, it is interesting to account for individual differences in fatigue severity and perception. Therefore, we run study 2, which is similar to the previous one except for the design: time of day is now within-subjects and complexity becomes between-subjects

Anticipatory control of long-range phase synchronization

Everyday human behaviour relies on our ability to predict outcomes on the basis of moment by moment information. Long-range neural phase synchronization has been hypothesized as a mechanism by which ‘predictions’ can exert an effect on the processing of incoming sensory events. Using magnetoencephalography (MEG) we have studied the relationship between the modulation of phase synchronization in a cerebral network of areas involved in visual target processing and the predictability of target occurrence. Our results reveal a striking increase in the modulation of phase synchronization associated with an increased probability of target occurrence. These observations are consistent with the hypothesis that long-range phase synchronization plays a critical functional role in humans' ability to effectively employ predictive heuristics.

Image Quotient Set Transforms in Segmentation Problems

Image content interpretation is much dependent on segmentations efficiency. Requirements for the image recognition applications lead to a nessesity to create models of new type, which will provide some adaptation between law-level image processing, when images are segmented into disjoint regions and features are extracted from each region, and high-level analysis, using obtained set of all features for making decisions. Such analysis requires some a priori information, measurable region properties, heuristics, and plausibility of computational inference. Sometimes to produce reliable true conclusion simultaneous processing of several partitions is desired. In this paper a set of operations with obtained image segmentation and a nested partitions metric are introduced.

Learning Technology in Scheduling Based on the Mixed Graphs

We propose the adaptive algorithm for solving a set of similar scheduling problems using learning technology. It is devised to combine the merits of an exact algorithm based on the mixed graph model and heuristics oriented on the real-world scheduling problems. The former may ensure high quality of the solution by means of an implicit exhausting enumeration of the feasible schedules. The latter may be developed for certain type of problems using their peculiarities. The main idea of the learning technology is to produce effective (in performance measure) and efficient (in computational time) heuristics by adapting local decisions for the scheduling problems under consideration. Adaptation is realized at the stage of learning while solving a set of sample scheduling problems using a branch-and-bound algorithm and structuring knowledge using pattern recognition apparatus.

Cluster Analysis of Some Clases of Objects by Application of the Test Recognition Algorithms

The paper treats the task for cluster analysis of a given assembly of objects on the basis of the information contained in the description table of these objects. Various methods of cluster analysis are briefly considered. Heuristic method and rules for classification of the given assembly of objects are presented for the cases when their division into classes and the number of classes is not known. The algorithm is checked by a test example and two program products (PP) – learning systems and software for company management. Analysis of the results is presented.

Integer Programming Approach to HP Folding

One of the most widely studied protein structure prediction models is the hydrophobic-hydrophilic (HP) model, which explains the hydrophobic interaction and tries to maximize the number of contacts among hydrophobic amino-acids. In order to find a lower bound for the number of contacts, a number of heuristics have been proposed, but finding the optimal solution is still a challenge. In this research, we focus on creating a new integer programming model which is capable to provide tractable input for mixed-integer programming solvers, is general enough and allows relaxation with provable good upper bounds. Computational experiments using benchmark problems show that our formulation achieves these goals.

Голяма идея – все още с малка популярност

Bahsen Ismailova-Isufova, Ridvan Isufov - In this paper it is described the birth and the growth during the last 50 years of the idea for the systematization of definitions and theorems based on the activities which can be done with them. Also there are methods to include the personal computers in this activity and to continue the research of the role for extending the heuristics abilities of students.

Formal methods @ runtime

Heuristics, simulation, artificial intelligence techniques and combinations thereof have all been employed in the attempt to make computer systems adaptive, context-aware, reconfigurable and self-managing. This paper complements such efforts by exploring the possibility to achieve runtime adaptiveness using mathematically-based techniques from the area of formal methods. It is argued that formal methods @ runtime represents a feasible approach, and promising preliminary results are summarised to support this viewpoint. The survey of existing approaches to employing formal methods at runtime is accompanied by a discussion of their challenges and of the future research required to overcome them. © 2011 Springer-Verlag.

Gondolkodásegyszerűsítő stratégiák hatékonysága (Simplifying decision strategies and their effectiveness)

A szerző a megelégedésre törekvő döntéshozatalt és eszközeinek, az egyszerűsítő döntési stratégiáknak a hatékonysági kérdéseit tárgyalja. Az egyszerűsítő stratégiáknak és az alkalmazásukat támogató attitűdnek nemcsak az időt, hanem az információkeresés és - feldolgozás egyéb költségvonzatait is tekintetbe véve számos előnyük van. A szerző a szakirodalom rendszerezésével rávilágít az egyéni szintű leegyszerűsítések természetére és pozitív hatásaikra. A bevezetést és a meghatározásokat követően az egyszerűsítő stratégiák hatékonysági kérdéseit tárgyalja a környezeti tényezők függvényében, majd a döntéshozó személyiségét és pszichológiai jóllétét érintő összefüggésekről ír. A tanulmány végén folyamatban lévő empirikus kutatásának kérdéseire tér rá, mely kutatás az üzleti gyakorlat empirikus vizsgálatával kíván hozzájárulni az eddig főként laboratóriumi kísérletek eredményeire épülő tudáshoz. ___________ Placing itself in the domain of bounded rationality theory, the article deals with the advantages of satisficing and of using decision heuristics. As to the approach to decision heuristics, the author stands on the positive side, not focusing on biases, but showing interest in the effectiveness potential in heuristics. As a review of recent literature, the article deals with different advantages of satisficing and of using simplifying strategies, be it cognitive advantages, the effectiveness, or advantages concerning the psychological well-being of the decision maker. Actual research questions of the „adaptive toolbox” approach, and the problem of determination by personality traits are presented based on the review of recent research results. Further research directions are indicated after the review. By presenting his research questions the author shows how he is willing to enrich the results of this research program by his own empirical work.

Tax morale and tax evasion: Social preferences and bounded rationality

We study a family of models of tax evasion, where a flat-rate tax finances only the provision of public goods, neglecting audits and wage differences. We focus on the comparison of two modeling approaches. The first is based on optimizing agents, who are endowed with social preferences, their utility being the sum of private consumption and moral utility. The second approach involves agents acting according to simple heuristics. We find that while we encounter the traditionally shaped Laffer-curve in the optimizing model, the heuristics models exhibit (linearly) increasing Laffercurves. This difference is related to a peculiar type of behavior emerging within the heuristics based approach: a number of agents lurk in a moral state of limbo, alternating between altruism and selfishness.