Carbon dioxide and climate impulse response functions for the computation of greenhouse gas metrics: a multi-model analysis

The responses of carbon dioxide (CO2) and other climate variables to an emission pulse of CO2 into the atmosphere are often used to compute the Global Warming Potential (GWP) and Global Temperature change Potential (GTP), to characterize the response timescales of Earth System models, and to build reduced-form models. In this carbon cycle-climate model intercomparison project, which spans the full model hierarchy, we quantify responses to emission pulses of different magnitudes injected under different conditions. The CO2 response shows the known rapid decline in the first few decades followed by a millennium-scale tail. For a 100 Gt-C emission pulse added to a constant CO2 concentration of 389 ppm, 25 ± 9% is still found in the atmosphere after 1000 yr; the ocean has absorbed 59 ± 12% and the land the remainder (16 ± 14%). The response in global mean surface air temperature is an increase by 0.20 ± 0.12 °C within the first twenty years; thereafter and until year 1000, temperature decreases only slightly, whereas ocean heat content and sea level continue to rise. Our best estimate for the Absolute Global Warming Potential, given by the time-integrated response in CO2 at year 100 multiplied by its radiative efficiency, is 92.5 × 10−15 yr W m−2 per kg-CO2. This value very likely (5 to 95% confidence) lies within the range of (68 to 117) × 10−15 yr W m−2 per kg-CO2. Estimates for time-integrated response in CO2 published in the IPCC First, Second, and Fourth Assessment and our multi-model best estimate all agree within 15% during the first 100 yr. The integrated CO2 response, normalized by the pulse size, is lower for pre-industrial conditions, compared to present day, and lower for smaller pulses than larger pulses. In contrast, the response in temperature, sea level and ocean heat content is less sensitive to these choices. Although, choices in pulse size, background concentration, and model lead to uncertainties, the most important and subjective choice to determine AGWP of CO2 and GWP is the time horizon.

Allowable carbon emissions lowered by multiple climate targets

Climate targets are designed to inform policies that would limit the magnitude and impacts of climate change caused by anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases and other substances. The target that is currently recognized by most world governments1 places a limit of two degrees Celsius on the global mean warming since preindustrial times. This would require large sustained reductions in carbon dioxide emissions during the twenty-first century and beyond2, 3, 4. Such a global temperature target, however, is not sufficient to control many other quantities, such as transient sea level rise5, ocean acidification6, 7 and net primary production on land8, 9. Here, using an Earth system model of intermediate complexity (EMIC) in an observation-informed Bayesian approach, we show that allowable carbon emissions are substantially reduced when multiple climate targets are set. We take into account uncertainties in physical and carbon cycle model parameters, radiative efficiencies10, climate sensitivity11 and carbon cycle feedbacks12, 13 along with a large set of observational constraints. Within this framework, we explore a broad range of economically feasible greenhouse gas scenarios from the integrated assessment community14, 15, 16, 17 to determine the likelihood of meeting a combination of specific global and regional targets under various assumptions. For any given likelihood of meeting a set of such targets, the allowable cumulative emissions are greatly reduced from those inferred from the temperature target alone. Therefore, temperature targets alone are unable to comprehensively limit the risks from anthropogenic emissions.

Oxygen isotope ratios (18O/16O) of hemicellulose-derived sugar biomarkers in plants, soils and sediments as paleoclimate proxy II: insight from a climate transect study

The oxygen isotopic composition of precipitation (δ18Oprec) is well known to be a valuable (paleo-)climate proxy. Paleosols and sediments and hemicelluloses therein have the potential to serve as archives recording the isotopic composition of paleoprecipitation. In a companion paper (Zech et al., 2014) we investigated δ18Ohemicellulose values of plants grown under different climatic conditions in a climate chamber experiment. Here we present results of compound-specific δ18O analyses of arabinose, fucose and xylose extracted from modern topsoils (n = 56) along a large humid-arid climate transect in Argentina in order to answer the question whether hemicellulose biomarkers in soils reflect δ18Oprec. The results from the field replications indicate that the homogeneity of topsoils with regard to δ18Ohemicellulose is very high for most of the 20 sampling sites. Standard deviations for the field replications are 1.5‰, 2.2‰ and 1.7‰, for arabinose, fucose and xylose, respectively. Furthermore, all three hemicellulose biomarkers reveal systematic and similar trends along the climate gradient. However, the δ18Ohemicellulose values (mean of the three sugars) do not correlate positively with δ18Oprec (r = −0.54, p < 0.014, n = 20). By using a Péclet-modified Craig-Gordon (PMCG) model it can be shown that the δ18Ohemicellulose values correlate highly significantly with modeled δ18Oleaf water values (r = 0.81, p < 0.001, n = 20). This finding suggests that hemicellulose biomarkers in (paleo-)soils do not simply reflect δ18Oprec but rather δ18Oprec altered by evaporative 18O enrichment of leaf water due to evapotranspiration. According to the modeling results, evaporative 18O enrichment of leaf water is relatively low (∼10‰) in the humid northern part of the Argentinian transect and much higher (up to 19‰) in the arid middle and southern part of the transect. Model sensitivity tests corroborate that changes in relative air humidity exert a dominant control on evaporative 18O enrichment of leaf water and thus δ18Ohemicellulose, whereas the effect of temperature changes is of minor importance. While oxygen exchange and degradation effects seem to be negligible, further factors needing consideration when interpreting δ18Ohemicellulose values obtained from (paleo-)soils are evaporative 18O enrichment of soil water, seasonality effects, wind effects and in case of abundant stem/root-derived organic matter input a partial loss of the evaporative 18O enrichment of leaf water. Overall, our results prove that compound-specific δ18O analyses of hemicellulose biomarkers in soils and sediments are a promising tool for paleoclimate research. However, disentangling the two major factors influencing δ18Ohemicellulose, namely δ18Oprec and relative air humidity controlled evaporative 18O enrichment of leaf water, is challenging based on δ18O analyses alone.

Twentieth Century Increase of Atmospheric Ammonia Recorded in Mount Everest Ice Core

An NH4+ record covering the period A.D. 1845-1997 was reconstructed using an 80.4 m ice core from East Rongbuk Glacier at an elevation of 6450 m on the northern slope of Mount Everest. Variations in NH4+ are characterized by a dramatic increase since the 1950s. The highest NH4+ concentrations occur in the 1980s. They are about twofold more than those in the first half of twentieth century. Empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis on the eight major ion (Na+,K+,Mg2+,NH4+,Ca2+,NO3-,SO42- and Cl-) series from this core indicates that NH4+ is loaded mainly on EOF3 (60% of NH4+ variance), suggesting that NH4+ has a unique signature. Instrumental sea level pressure (SLP) and regional temperatures are used to explore the relationship between NH4+ variations and both atmospheric circulation and natural source strength over Asia. Higher NH4+ concentrations are associated with an enhanced winter Mongolian High and a deepened summer Mongolian Low. A positive relationship also exists between NH4+ concentrations and regional temperature changes of the GIS Box 36 (Indian subcontinent), indicating that an increase in temperature may contribute to the strengthening of natural ammonia emissions (e. g., from plants and soils). A close positive correlation between NH4+ and acidic species (SO42- plus NO3-) concentrations suggests that a portion of the increase in NH4+ concentrations could be contributed by enhanced atmospheric acidification. Anthropogenic ammonia emissions from enhanced agricultural activities and energy consumption over Asia in concert with population increase since the 1950s appear also to be a significant factor in the dramatic increase of NH4+ concentrations during the last few decades.

Microfabric memory of vein quartz for strain localization in detachment faults: A case study on the Simplon fault zone

This manuscript deals with the adaptation of quartz-microfabrics to changing physical deformation conditions, and discusses their preservation potential during subsequent retrograde deformation. Using microstructural analysis, a sequence of recrystallization processes in quartz, ranging from Grain-Boundary Migration Recrystallization (GBM) over Subgrain-Rotation Recrystallization (SGR) to Bulging Nucleation (BLG) is detected for the Simplon fault zone (SFZ) from the low strain rim towards the internal high strain part of the large-scale shear zone. Based on: (i) the retrograde cooling path; (ii) estimates of deformation temperatures; and (iii) spatial variation of dynamic recrystallization processes and different microstructural characteristics, continuous strain localization with decreasing temperature is inferred. In contrast to the recrystallization microstructures, crystallographic preferred orientations (CPO) have a longer memory. CPO patterns indicative of prism and rhomb glide systems in mylonitic quartz veins, overprinted at low temperatures (�400 �C), suggest inheritance of a high-temperature deformation. In this way, microstructural, textural and geochemical analyses provide information for several million years of the deformation history. The reasons for such incomplete resetting of the rock texture is that strain localization is caused by change in effective viscosity contrasts related to temporal large- and small-scale temperature changes during the evolution of such a long-lived shear zone. The spatially resolved, quantitative investigation of quartz microfabrics and associated recrystallization processes therefore provide great potential for an improved understanding of the geodynamics of large-scale shear zones.

Plant and arthropod community sensitivity to rainfall manipulation but not nitrogen enrichment in a successional grassland ecosystem

Grasslands provide many ecosystem services including carbon storage, biodiversity preservation and livestock forage production. These ecosystem services will change in the future in response to multiple global environmental changes, including climate change and increased nitrogen inputs. We conducted an experimental study over 3 years in a mesotrophic grassland ecosystem in southern England. We aimed to expose plots to rainfall manipulation that simulated IPCC 4th Assessment projections for 2100 (+15 % winter rainfall and −30 % summer rainfall) or ambient climate, achieving +15 % winter rainfall and −39 % summer rainfall in rainfall-manipulated plots. Nitrogen (40 kg ha−1 year−1) was also added to half of the experimental plots in factorial combination. Plant species composition and above ground biomass were not affected by rainfall in the first 2 years and the plant community did not respond to nitrogen enrichment throughout the experiment. In the third year, above-ground plant biomass declined in rainfall-manipulated plots, driven by a decline in the abundances of grass species characteristic of moist soils. Declining plant biomass was also associated with changes to arthropod communities, with lower abundances of plant-feeding Auchenorrhyncha and carnivorous Araneae indicating multi-trophic responses to rainfall manipulation. Plant and arthropod community composition and plant biomass responses to rainfall manipulation were not modified by nitrogen enrichment, which was not expected, but may have resulted from prior nitrogen saturation and/or phosphorus limitation. Overall, our study demonstrates that climate change may in future influence plant productivity and induce multi-trophic responses in grasslands.

The value of susceptibility-weighted imaging (SWI) in patients with non-neonatal hypoxic-ischemic encephalopathy

OBJECTIVE In susceptibility-weighted imaging (SWI) in the normal brain, cortical veins appear hypointense due to paramagnetic properties of deoxy-hemoglobin. Global cerebral anoxia decreases cerebral oxygen metabolism, thereby increasing oxy-hemoglobin levels in cerebral veins. We hypothesized that a lower cerebral oxygen extraction fraction in comatose patients with non-neonatal hypoxic ischemic encephalopathy (IHE) produce a pattern of global rarefied or pseudo-diminished cortical veins due to higher oxy-hemoglobin. PURPOSE 1. To investigate the topographic relationship between susceptibility effects in cortical veins and related diffusion restrictions on diffusion-weighted imaging (DWI) in patients with IHE. 2. To relate imaging findings to patterns of altered resting activity on surface EEG. METHODS Twenty-three IHE patients underwent MRI. EEG patterns were used to classify the depth of coma. Regional vs. global susceptibility changes on SWI and patterns of DWI restrictions were compared with the depth of coma. RESULTS All patients exhibited areas of restricted cortical diffusion and SWI abnormalities. The dominant DWI restrictions encompassed widespread areas along the precuneus, frontal and parietal association cortices and basal ganglia. For SWI, nineteen patients had generalized bi-hemispherical patterns, the EEG patterns correlated with coma grades III to V. Four patients had focal decreases of deoxy-hemoglobin following DWI restrictions; associated with normal EEGs. CONCLUSION Focal patterns of diamagnetic effects on SWI according to relative decreases in deoxy-hemoglobin due to reduced metabolic demand are associated with normal EEG in IHE patients. Global patterns indicated increased depth of coma and widespread cortical damage. CLINICAL RELEVANCE The results indicate a potential diagnostic value of SWI in patients with IHE.

Contrasting futures for ocean and society from different anthropogenic CO2 emissions scenarios

The ocean moderates anthropogenic climate change at the cost of profound alterations of its physics, chemistry, ecology, and services. Here, we evaluate and compare the risks of impacts on marine and coastal ecosystems—and the goods and services they provide—for growing cumulative carbon emissions under two contrasting emissions scenarios. The current emissions trajectory would rapidly and significantly alter many ecosystems and the associated services on which humans heavily depend. A reduced emissions scenario—consistent with the Copenhagen Accord’s goal of a global temperature increase of less than 2°C—is much more favorable to the ocean but still substantially alters important marine ecosystems and associated goods and services. The management options to address ocean impacts narrow as the ocean warms and acidifies. Consequently, any new climate regime that fails to minimize ocean impacts would be incomplete and inadequate.

Impact of a Reduced Arctic Sea Ice Cover on Ocean and Atmospheric Properties

The Arctic sea ice cover declined over the last few decades and reached a record minimum in 2007, with a slight recovery thereafter. Inspired by this the authors investigate the response of atmospheric and oceanic properties to a 1-yr period of reduced sea ice cover. Two ensembles of equilibrium and transient simulations are produced with the Community Climate System Model. A sea ice change is induced through an albedo change of 1 yr. The sea ice area and thickness recover in both ensembles after 3 and 5 yr, respectively. The sea ice anomaly leads to changes in ocean temperature and salinity to a depth of about 200 m in the Arctic Basin. Further, the salinity and temperature changes in the surface layer trigger a “Great Salinity Anomaly” in the North Atlantic that takes roughly 8 yr to travel across the North Atlantic back to high latitudes. In the atmosphere the changes induced by the sea ice anomaly do not last as long as in the ocean. The response in the transient and equilibrium simulations, while similar overall, differs in specific regional and temporal details. The surface air temperature increases over the Arctic Basin and the anomaly extends through the whole atmospheric column, changing the geopotential height fields and thus the storm tracks. The patterns of warming and thus the position of the geopotential height changes vary in the two ensembles. While the equilibrium simulation shifts the storm tracks to the south over the eastern North Atlantic and Europe, the transient simulation shifts the storm tracks south over the western North Atlantic and North America. The authors propose that the overall reduction in sea ice cover is important for producing ocean anomalies; however, for atmospheric anomalies the regional location of the sea ice anomalies is more important. While observed trends in Arctic sea ice are large and exceed those simulated by comprehensive climate models, there is little evidence based on this particular model that the seasonal loss of sea ice (e.g., as occurred in 2007) would constitute a threshold after which the Arctic would exhibit nonlinear, irreversible, or strongly accelerated sea ice loss. Caution should be exerted when extrapolating short-term trends to future sea ice behavior.

Past forests of Europe

European forests have varied in their composition, structure, and extent over the last 5 million years or more in response to global climate changes. European forests have also undergone very major changes due to the alternating glacial-interglacial cycles of the Quaternary (last 2.6 million years). European forests have greatly changed in their extent and structure in the last 5 000 years due to human activities (the Homo sapiens phase) in the current Holocene interglacial in which we live. Contemporary ecologists and foresters can learn from ‘lessons from the past’ about forest responses and resilience to environmental changes in the past.

An intercontinental comparison of chironomid palaeotemperature inference models: Europe vs North America

Chironomid-temperature inference models based on North American, European and combined surface sediment training sets were compared to assess the overall reliability of their predictions. Between 67 and 76 of the major chironomid taxa in each data set showed a unimodal response to July temperature, whereas between 5 and 22 of the common taxa showed a sigmoidal response. July temperature optima were highly correlated among the training sets, but the correlations for other taxon parameters such as tolerances and weighted averaging partial least squares (WA-PLS) and partial least squares (PLS) regression coefficients were much weaker. PLS, weighted averaging, WA-PLS, and the Modern Analogue Technique, all provided useful and reliable temperature inferences. Although jack-knifed error statistics suggested that two-component WA-PLS models had the highest predictive power, intercontinental tests suggested that other inference models performed better. The various models were able to provide good July temperature inferences, even where neither good nor close modern analogues for the fossil chironomid assemblages existed. When the models were applied to fossil Lateglacial assemblages from North America and Europe, the inferred rates and magnitude of July temperature changes varied among models. All models, however, revealed similar patterns of Lateglacial temperature change. Depending on the model used, the inferred Younger Dryas July temperature decrease ranged between 2.5 and 6°C.

Benthic foraminiferal stable isotope record from ODP Site 138-849 on the East Pacific Rise

Benthic foraminifer and delta13C data from Site 849, on the west flank of the East Pacific Rise (0°11 'N, 110°31'W; 3851 m), give relatively continuous records of deep Pacific Ocean stable isotope variations between 0 and 5 Ma. The mean sample spacing is 4 k.y. Most analyses are from Cibicides wuellerstorfi, but isotopic offsets relative to Uvigerina peregrina appear roughly constant. Because of its location west of the East Pacific Rise, Site 849 yields a suitable record of mean Pacific Ocean delta13C, which approximates a global oceanic signal. The ~100-k.y.-period climate cycle, which is prevalent in delta18O does not dominate the long-term delta13C record. For delta13C, variations in the ~400- and 41-k.y. periods are more important. Phase lags of delta13C relative to ice volume in the 41- and 23-k.y. bands are consistent with delta13C as a measure of organic biomass. A model-calculated exponential response time of 1-2 k.y. is appropriate for carbon stored in soils and shallow sediments responding to glacial-interglacial climate change. Oceanic delta13C leads ice volume slightly in the 100-k.y. band, and this suggests another process such as changes in continental weathering to modulate mean river delta13C at long periods. The delta13C record from Site 849 diverges from that of Site 677 in the Panama Basin mostly because of decay of 13C-depleted organic carbon in the relatively isolated Panama Basin. North Atlantic to Pacific delta13C differences calculated using published data from Sites 607 and 849 reveal variations in Pliocene deep water within the range of those of the late Quaternary. Maximum delta13C contrast between these sites, which presumably reflects maximum influx of high-delta13C northern source water into the deep North Atlantic Ocean, occurred between 1.3 and 2.1 Ma, well after the initiation of Northern Hemisphere glaciation. Export of high-delta13C North Atlantic Deep Water from the Atlantic to the circumpolar Antarctic, as recorded by published delta13C data from Subantarctic Site 704, appears unrelated to the North Atlantic-Pacific delta13C contrast. To account for this observation, we suggest that deep-water formation in the North Atlantic reflects northern source characteristics, whereas export of this water into the circumpolar Antarctic reflects Southern Hemisphere wind forcing. Neither process appears directly linked to ice-volume variations.

Granulometry of two sediment cores from Maxwell Bay, South Shetland Islands, West Antarctica

The climate evolution of the South Shetland Islands during the last c. 2000 years is inferred from the multiproxy analyses of a long (928 cm) sediment core retrieved from Maxwell Bay off King George Island. The vertical sediment flux at the core location is controlled by summer melting processes that cause sediment-laden meltwater plumes to form. These leave a characteristic signature in the sediments of NE Maxwell Bay. We use this signature to distinguish summer and winter-dominated periods. During the Medieval Warm Period, sediments are generally finer which indicates summer-type conditions. In contrast, during the Little Ice Age (LIA) sediments are generally coarser and are indicative of winter-dominated conditions. Comparison with Northern and Southern Hemisphere, Antarctic, and global temperature reconstructions reveals that the mean grain-size curve from Maxwell Bay closely resembles the curve of the global temperature reconstruction. We show that the medieval warming occurred earlier in the Southern than in the Northern Hemisphere, which might indicate that the warming was driven by processes occurring in the south. The beginning of the LIA appears to be almost synchronous in both hemispheres. The warming after the LIA closely resembles the Northern Hemisphere record which might indicate this phase of cooling was driven by processes occurring in the north. Although the recent rapid regional warming is clearly visible, the Maxwell Bay record does not show the dominance of summer-type sediments until the 1970s. Continued warming in this area will likely affect the marine ecosystem through meltwater induced turbidity of the surface waters as well as an extension of the vegetation period due to the predicted decrease of sea ice in this area.

(Table 1) Deuterium excess record during different time periods in Lomonosovfonna ice core

In this paper we present a deuterium excess (d) record from an ice core drilled on a small ice cap in Svalbard in 1997. The core site is located at Lomonosovfonna at 1255 m asl, and the analyzed time series spans the period 1400-1990 A.D. The record shows pronounced multidecadal to centennial-scale variations coherent with sea surface temperature changes registered in the subtropical to southern middle-latitude North Atlantic during the instrumental period. We interpret the negative trend in the deuterium excess during the 1400s and 1500s as an indication of cooling in the North Atlantic associated with the onset of the Little Ice Age. Consistently positive anomalies of d after 1900, peaking at about 1950, correspond with well-documented contemporary warming. Yet the maximum values of deuterium excess during 1900-1990 are not as high as in the early part of the record (pre-1550). This suggests that the sea surface temperatures during this earlier period of time in the North Atlantic to the south of approximately 45°N were at least comparable with those registered in the 20th century before the end of the 1980s. We examine the potential for a cold bias to exist in the deuterium excess record due to increased evaporation from the local colder sources of moisture having isotopically cold signature. It is argued that despite a recent oceanic warming, the contribution from this local moisture to the Lomonosovfonna precipitation budget is still insufficient to interfere with the isotopic signal from the primary moisture region in the midlatitude North Atlantic.