830 resultados para Global sensitivity analysis


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The circumstances are investigated under which high peak acceleration can occur in the internal parts of a system when subjected to impulsive driving on the outside. Previous work using a coupled beam model has highlighted the importance of veering pairs of modes. Such a veering pair can be approximated by a lumped system with two degrees of freedom. The worst case of acceleration amplification is shown to occur when the two oscillators are tuned to the same frequency, and for this case closed-form expressions are derived to show the parameter dependence of the acceleration ratio on the mass ratio and coupling strength. Sensitivity analysis of the eigenvalues and eigenvectors indicates that mass ratio is the most sensitive parameter for altering the veering behaviour in an undamped system. Non-proportional damping is also shown to have a strong influence on the veering behaviour. The study gives design guidelines to allow permissible acceleration levels to be achieved by the choice of the effective mass and damping of the indirectly driven subsystem relative to the directly driven subsystem. © 2013 Elsevier Ltd.

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A recurrent artificial neural network was used for 0-and 7-days-ahead forecasting of daily spring phytoplankton bloom dynamics in Xiangxi Bay of Three-Gorges Reservoir with meteorological, hydrological, and limnological parameters as input variables. Daily data from the depth of 0.5 m was used to train the model, and data from the depth of 2.0 m was used to validate the calibrated model. The trained model achieved reasonable accuracy in predicting the daily dynamics of chlorophyll a both in 0-and 7-days-ahead forecasting. In 0-day-ahead forecasting, the R-2 values of observed and predicted data were 0.85 for training and 0.89 for validating. In 7-days-ahead forecasting, the R-2 values of training and validating were 0.68 and 0.66, respectively. Sensitivity analysis indicated that most ecological relationships between chlorophyll a and input environmental variables in 0-and 7-days-ahead models were reasonable. In the 0-day model, Secchi depth, water temperature, and dissolved silicate were the most important factors influencing the daily dynamics of chlorophyll a. And in 7-days-ahead predicting model, chlorophyll a was sensitive to most environmental variables except water level, DO, and NH3N.

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In order to improve algal biofuel production on a commercial-scale, an understanding of algal growth and fuel molecule accumulation is essential. A mathematical model is presented that describes biomass growth and storage molecule (TAG lipid and starch) accumulation in the freshwater microalga Chlorella vulgaris, under mixotrophic and autotrophic conditions. Biomass growth was formulated based on the Droop model, while the storage molecule production was calculated based on the carbon balance within the algal cells incorporating carbon fixation via photosynthesis, organic carbon uptake and functional biomass growth. The model was validated with experimental growth data of C. vulgaris and was found to fit the data well. Sensitivity analysis showed that the model performance was highly sensitive to variations in parameters associated with nutrient factors, photosynthesis and light intensity. The maximum productivity and biomass concentration were achieved under mixotrophic nitrogen sufficient conditions, while the maximum storage content was obtained under mixotrophic nitrogen deficient conditions.

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This paper describes a new formulation of the material point method (MPM) for solving coupled hydromechanical problems of fluid-saturated soil subjected to large deformation. A soil-pore fluid coupled MPM algorithm based on Biot's mixture theory is proposed for solving hydromechanical interaction problems that include changes in water table location with time. The accuracy of the proposed method is examined by comparing the results of the simulation of a one-dimensional consolidation test with the corresponding analytical solution. A sensitivity analysis of the MPM parameters used in the proposed method is carried out for examining the effect of the number of particles per mesh and mesh size on solution accuracy. For demonstrating the capability of the proposed method, a physical model experiment of a large-scale levee failure by seepage is simulated. The behavior of the levee model with time-dependent changes in water table matches well to the experimental observations. The mechanisms of seepage-induced failure are discussed by examining the pore-water pressures, as well as the effective stresses computed from the simulations © 2013 American Society of Civil Engineers.

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Lake Dianchi is a shallow and turbid lake, located in Southwest China. Since 1985, Lake Dianchi has experienced severe cyanabacterial blooms (dominated by Microcystis spp.). In extreme cases, the algal cell densities have exceeded three billion cells per liter. To predict and elucidate the population dynamics ofMicrocystis spp. in Lake Dianchi, a neural network based model was developed. The correlation coefficient (R 2) between the predicted algal concentrations by the model and the observed values was 0.911. Sensitivity analysis was performed to clarify the algal dynamics to the changes of environmental factors. The results of a sensitivity analysis of the neural network model suggested that small increases in pH could cause significantly reduced algal abundance. Further investigations on raw data showed that the response of Microcystis spp. concentration to pH increase was dependent on algal biomass and pH level. When Microcystis spp. population and pH were moderate or low, the response of Microcystis spp. population would be more likely to be positive in Lake Dianchi; contrarily, Microcystis spp. population in Lake Dianchi would be more likely to show negative response to pH increase when Microcystis spp. population and pH were high. The paper concluded that the extremely high concentration of algal population and high pH could explain the distinctive response of Microcystis spp. population to +1 SD (standard deviation) pH increase in Lake Dianchi. And the paper also elucidated the algal dynamics to changes of other environmental factors. One SD increase of water temperature (WT) had strongest positive relationship with Microcystis spp. biomass. Chemical oxygen demand (COD) and total phosphorus (TP) had strong positive effect on Microcystis spp. abundance while total nitrogen (TN), biological oxygen demand in five days (BOD5), and dissolved oxygen had only weak relationship with Microcystis spp. concentration. And transparency (Tr) had moderate positive relationship with Microcystis spp. concentration.

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Lake Dianchi is one of the most extensively impacted freshwater lakes by algal blooms. To investigate the response of dominant algal genera, neural networks were applied to model the relationship between water quality parameters and the biomass of four dominant genera (Microcystic spp., Anabaena sp., Quadricauda (Turp.) Breb, Pediastrum Mey) in Dianchi. Results showed that the timing and magnitude of algal blooms of Microcystic spp., nabaena sp., Quadricauda (Turp.) Breb, and Pediastrum Mey in Dianchi could be successfully predicted. The evaluation of environmental factors showed that pH had more significant impact on concentrations of all the four dominant algal genera than the nutrient factors, such as total phosphorus and total nitrogen.

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In order to improve algal biofuel production on a commercial-scale, an understanding of algal growth and fuel molecule accumulation is essential. A mathematical model is presented that describes biomass growth and storage molecule (TAG lipid and starch) accumulation in the freshwater microalga Chlorella vulgaris, under mixotrophic and autotrophic conditions. Biomass growth was formulated based on the Droop model, while the storage molecule production was calculated based on the carbon balance within the algal cells incorporating carbon fixation via photosynthesis, organic carbon uptake and functional biomass growth. The model was validated with experimental growth data of C. vulgaris and was found to fit the data well. Sensitivity analysis showed that the model performance was highly sensitive to variations in parameters associated with nutrient factors, photosynthesis and light intensity. The maximum productivity and biomass concentration were achieved under mixotrophic nitrogen sufficient conditions, while the maximum storage content was obtained under mixotrophic nitrogen deficient conditions. © 2014 Elsevier Ltd.

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A radial basis function neural network was employed to model the abundance of cyanobacteria. The trained network could predict the populations of two bloom forming algal taxa with high accuracy, Nostocales spp. and Anabaena spp., in the River Darling, Australia. To elucidate the population dynamics for both Nostocales spp. and Anabaena spp., sensitivity analysis was performed with the following results. Total Kjeldahl nitrogen had a very strong influence on the abundance of the two algal taxa, electrical conductivity had a very strong negative relationship with the population of the two algal species, and flow was identified as one dominant factor influencing algal blooms after a scatter plot revealed that high flow could significantly reduce the algal biomass for both Nostocales spp. and Anabaena spp. Other variables such as turbidity, color, and pH were less important in determining the abundance and succession of the algal blooms.

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Compared with other approaches for modeling and predicting, artificial neural networks are more effective in describing complex and non-linear systems. The occurrence of cyanobacterial blooms has been a continuous and serious problem over the past decades in hypereutrophic Lake Dianchi. Yet, the main factor(s) initiating these blooms remain(s) unclear. During 2001-2002 at 40 sampling sites in Lake Dianchi, physicochemical parameters possibly relating to the blooms were measured. Parameters directly or indirectly relating to the cyanobacterial blooms were used as driving factors in a back-propagation network to model the concentration of chlorophyll a. According to sensitivity analysis, chemical oxygen demand was identified as a very significant environmental factor for algal growth in Lake Dianchi.

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The effects ofdisk flexibility and multistage coupling on the dynamics of bladed disks with and without blade mistuning are investigated. Both free and forced responses are examined using finite element representations of example single and two-stage rotor models. The reported work demonstrates the importance of proper treatment of interstage (stage-to-stage) boundaries in order to yield adequate capture of disk-blade modal interaction in eigenfrequency veering regions. The modified disk-blade modal interactions resulting from interstage-coupling-induced changes in disk flexibility are found to have a significant impact on (a) tuned responses due to excitations passing through eigenfrequency veering regions, and (b) a design's sensitivity to blade mistuning. Hence, the findings in this paper suggest that multistage analyses may be required when excitations are expected to fall in or near eigenfrequency veering regions or when the sensitivity to blade mistuning is to be accounted for Conversely, the observed sensitivity to disk flexibility also indicates that the severity of unfavorable structural interblade coupling may be reduced significantly by redesigning the disk(s) and stage-to-stage connectivity. The relatively drastic effects of such modifications illustrated in this work indicate that the design modifications required to alleviate veering-related response problems may be less comprehensive than what might have been expected.

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As part of Pilot Project of KIP of CAS, a feasibility study of hydrogen production system using biomass residues is conducted. This study is based on a process of oxygen-rich air gasification of biomass in a downdraft gasifier plus CO-shift. The capacity of this system is 6.4 t biomass/d. Applying this system, it is expected that an annual production of 480 billion N m(3) H-2 will be generated for domestic supply in China. The capital cost of the plant used in this study is 1328$/(N m(3)/h) H-2 out, and product supply cost is 0.15$/N m(3) H-2. The cost sensitivity analysis on this system tells that electricity and catalyst cost are the two most important factors to influence hydrogen production cost.

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By considering all possible high order diffracted waves, the authors investigate the spectral response of two-dimensional gratings for quantum well infrared photodetectors (QWIPs). A new method is proposed that using long period gratings may improve grating quality and reduce the resulting cross talk in grating-coupled QWIPs. A sensitivity analysis indicates that the influence of variation of the grating constant on the coupling efficiency is less sensitive for the long period gratings than for the short ones. A large coupling efficiency has been demonstrated for long period gratings. The calculated wide grating response spectra are in good agreement with the experiment result. (C) 1996 American Institute of Physics.

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perimentally at evaluated pressures and under normal- and micro-gravity conditions utilizing the 3.5 s drop tower of the National Microgravity Laboratory of China. The results showed that under micro-gravity conditions the natural convection is minimized and the flames become more planar and symmetric compared to normal gravity. In both normal- and micro-gravity experiments and for a given strain rate and fuel concentration, the flame luminosity was found to enhance as the pressure increases. On the other hand, at a given pressure, the flame luminosity was determined to weaken as the strain rate decreases. At a given strain rate, the fuel concentration at extinction was found to vary non-monotonically with pressure, namely it first increases and subsequently decreases with pressure. The limit fuel concentration peaks around 3 and 4 atm under normal- and micro-gravity, respectively. The extinction limits measured at micro-gravity were in good agreement with predictions obtained through detailed numerical simulations but they are notably lower compared to the data obtained under normal gravity. The simulations confirmed the non-monotonic variation of flammability limits with pressure, in agreement with previous studies. Sensitivity analysis showed that for pressures between one and 5 atm, the near-limit flame response is dominated by the competition between the main branching, H + O2 ? OH + O, and the pressure sensitive termination, H+O2+M? HO2 + M, reaction. However, for pressures greater than 5 atm it was determined that the HO2 kinetics result in further chain branching in a way that is analogous to the third explosion limit of H2/O2 mixtures. 2010 The Combustion Institute. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

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本文用黄土高原长武农业生态试验站的冬小麦长期定位试验资料对改进的随机动力学水平衡模型进行了准确性检验 .从模型对参数反映的敏感性分析和模型计算值与数值模型WAVES的比较 ,以及模型对黄土区旱作高生产力的水分环境效应的评价结果 ,均证明改进的随机动力学水平衡模型能比较准确地预测一定生产力水平、特定生态系统平衡体系水均衡要素的定量分配和土壤含水量的动态变化 .

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Debris Landslide is one of the types of landslides with the widest distribution, largest quantity, and the closest relationship with engineering construction. It is also one of the most important types of landslides that can cause disaster. This kind of landslide often occurs in the loose slopes which are made up of loose congeries formed by earth filling, residual soil, slope wash, dilapidation, landslide or full weathered material of hard rock. Rainfall is always the chief inducing factor of debris Landslide. Therefore, to research stability of debris Landslide during rainfall not only has important theoretical significance for understanding developing law and deformation and failure mechanism of debris landslide, but also has important practical significance for investigating, appraising, forecasting, preventing and controlling debris landslides. This thesis systematically summarized the relationships between rainfall and landslide, the method to survey water table in the landslides, the deformation and failure mechanism of debris landslide, and the progress in the stability analysis of landslides based on the analyses of data collected widely at home and abroad. The problems in the study of the stability of debris landslide during rainfall was reviewed and discussed. Due to the complicated geological conditions and the random rainfall conditions, the research on the landslides' stability must be based on engineering geological qualitative analysis. Through the collection of the data about the Panxi region and the Three Gorges Reservoir region, the author systematically summarized the engineering geological conditions, hydro-geological condition, distribution characteristics of stress field in the slope, physical and mechanical properties and hydro-mechanical properties of debris. In the viewpoint of dynamics of soil water and hydromechanics, physical process of rainfall to supply groundwater of debris landslides can be divided into two phases, i.e. non-saturated steady infiltrating phase and saturated unsteady supplying phase. The former can be described by mathematical model of surface water infiltration while the latter can be described by equivalent continuous medium model of groundwater seepage. With regard to specific hydrological geology system, we can obtain the dynamic variation law of water content, water table, landslide stability of rock and soil mass, along with quantity and duration of rainfall after the boundary condition on hydrological geology has been ascertained. This is a new way to study the response law of groundwater in the landslides during rainfall. After wet face of rock and soil mass connects with ground water table, the raising of water table will occur due to the supply of rainfall. Then interaction between ground water and rock and soil mass will occur, such as the action of physics, water, chemistry and mechanics, which caused the decrease of shearing strength of sliding zone. According to the action of groundwater on rock and soil mass, a concise mechanical model of debris landslide’s deformation was established during rainfall. The static equilibrium condition of landslide mass system was achieved according to the concise mechanical model, and then the typical deformation and failure process and failure mode of debris landslide during rainfall were discussed. In this thesis, the former limiting equilibrium slice method was modified and improved based on shearing strength theory of , a stability analysis program of debris landslide was established and developed taking account of the saturated-unsaturated seepage, by introducing the shearing strength theory of unsaturated soil mass made by (1978). The program has reasonable data storage and simple interface and is easy to operate, and can be perfectly used to carry out sensitivity analysis of influencing factors of landslides' stability, integrated with the program of Office Excel. The design of drainage engineering are always bases on empirical methods and is short of effective quantitative analysis and appraise, therefore, the conception of critical water table of debris landslide was put forward. For debris landslides with different kinds of slide face in the engineering practice, a program to search the critical water table of debris landslide was developed based on native groundwater table. And groundwater table in the slope should be declined below the critical water table in the drainage works, so the program can be directly used to guide drainage works in the debris landslide. Taking the slope deformation body in the back of former factory building of Muli Shawan hydroelectric power station as an example, a systematic and detailed research on debris landslides' stability during rainfall was researched systematically, the relationship among quantity of rainfall, water table and stability of slope was established, the debris landslides' stability in process of rainfall from dynamic viewpoint was analyzed and researched.