Beyond the crisis: prospects for emerging Europe

This paper assesses the impact of the 2008-09 global financial and economic crisis on the medium-term growth prospects of the countries of central and eastern Europe, the Caucasus and Central Asia, which began an economic transition about two decades ago. We use crosscountry growth regressions, putting special emphasis on a proper consideration of the crisis and robustness. We find that the crisis has had a major impact on the within-sample fit of the models used and that the positive impact of EU enlargement on growth is smaller than previous research has shown. The crisis has also altered the future growth prospects of the countries studied, even in the optimistic but unrealistic case of a return to pre-crisis capital inflows and credit booms.

Effects of the current financial and economic crisis on the rural landscape as well as the agri-food sector in Europe and Central Asia

This paper reviews the expected effects of the current financial crisis and subsequent recession on the rural landscape, in particular the agri-food sector in Europe and Central Asia (ECA) on the basis of the structure of the rural economy and of different organisations and institutions. Empirical evidence suggests that the crisis has hit the ECA region the hardest. Agriculture contributes about 9% to gross domestic product (GDP) for the ECA region as a whole with 16% of the population being employed in the agricultural sector. As far as the impact of the financial crisis on the agri-food sector is concerned, there are a few interconnected issues: (1) reduction in income elastic food demand and commodity price decline, (2) loss of employment and earnings of rural people working in urban centres, implying also costly labour reallocation, (3) rising rural poverty originating mainly from lack of opportunities in the non-farm sector and a sizable decline of international remittances, (4) tightening of agricultural credit markets, and the (5) collapse of sectoral government support programs and social safety-net measures in many countries. The paper reveals how the crisis hit farming and broader agri-business differently in general and in the ECA sub-regions.

Crisis and Welfare Society in Spain

Some arguments are briefly presented about the negative consequences of the deep global economic and financial crisis of 2008 on the economic activity and the social situation in Spain. Reformulation, sustainability and financial viability of social welfare in Spain require a new management through resource efficiency, increasing market presence and initiative of stakeholders as a whole. In this sense, the main credible argument of the welfare social in Spain depends on a new perspective on socialization and generosity of social protection system. Specifically, the solution to the crisis must come through economic growth, increased productivity, employment and competitiveness and not by the way of increasing levels of social protection.

Economic crisis and national health system

The text analyzes the impact of the economic crisis in some critical aspects of the National Health System: outcomes, health expenditure, remuneration policy and privatization through Private Public Partnership models. Some health outcomes related to social inequalities are worrying. Reducing public health spending has increased the fragility of the health system, reduced wage income of workers in the sector and increased heterogeneity between regions. Finally, the evidence indicates that privatization does not mean more efficiency and better governance. Deep reforms are needed to strengthen the National Health System.

El impacto de la crisis en la industria cinematográfica en Europa

Este trabajo analiza el impacto que ha generado la crisis económica y financiera más reciente en las industrias cinematográficas de siete países miembros de la Unión Europea. Las conclusiones señalan que, en efecto, la crisis ha impactado negativamente en las industrias de España e Italia, y muy gravemente en la de Portugal, pero en el lado contrario, la del Reino Unido ha experimentado un crecimiento apreciable y las de Francia y Alemania también lo han hecho, aunque en menor medida. Y en segundo lugar, es muy notable la escasa colaboración alcanzada entre los agentes europeos.

Capital 2.0 capital formation and legal risk in a new global economic order from fiat to exit: including case studies of the proposed transatlantic trade and investment partnership between the United States and the European Union and the financing relation between the United States and the People’s Republic of China

Following the intrinsically linked balance sheets in his Capital Formation Life Cycle, Lukas M. Stahl explains with his Triple A Model of Accounting, Allocation and Accountability the stages of the Capital Formation process from FIAT to EXIT. Based on the theoretical foundations of legal risk laid by the International Bar Association with the help of Roger McCormick and legal scholars such as Joanna Benjamin, Matthew Whalley and Tobias Mahler, and founded on the basis of Wesley Hohfeld’s category theory of jural relations, Stahl develops his mutually exclusive Four Determinants of Legal Risk of Law, Lack of Right, Liability and Limitation. Those Four Determinants of Legal Risk allow us to apply, assess, and precisely describe the respective legal risk at all stages of the Capital Formation Life Cycle as demonstrated in case studies of nine industry verticals of the proposed and currently negotiated Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership between the United States of America and the European Union, TTIP, as well as in the case of the often cited financing relation between the United States and the People’s Republic of China. Having established the Four Determinants of Legal Risk and its application to the Capital Formation Life Cycle, Stahl then explores the theoretical foundations of capital formation, their historical basis in classical and neo-classical economics and its forefathers such as The Austrians around Eugen von Boehm-Bawerk, Ludwig von Mises and Friedrich von Hayek and most notably and controversial, Karl Marx, and their impact on today’s exponential expansion of capital formation. Starting off with the first pillar of his Triple A Model, Accounting, Stahl then moves on to explain the Three Factors of Capital Formation, Man, Machines and Money and shows how “value-added” is created with respect to the non-monetary capital factors of human resources and industrial production. Followed by a detailed analysis discussing the roles of the Three Actors of Monetary Capital Formation, Central Banks, Commercial Banks and Citizens Stahl readily dismisses a number of myths regarding the creation of money providing in-depth insight into the workings of monetary policy makers, their institutions and ultimate beneficiaries, the corporate and consumer citizens. In his second pillar, Allocation, Stahl continues his analysis of the balance sheets of the Capital Formation Life Cycle by discussing the role of The Five Key Accounts of Monetary Capital Formation, the Sovereign, Financial, Corporate, Private and International account of Monetary Capital Formation and the associated legal risks in the allocation of capital pursuant to his Four Determinants of Legal Risk. In his third pillar, Accountability, Stahl discusses the ever recurring Crisis-Reaction-Acceleration-Sequence-History, in short: CRASH, since the beginning of the millennium starting with the dot-com crash at the turn of the millennium, followed seven years later by the financial crisis of 2008 and the dislocations in the global economy we are facing another seven years later today in 2015 with several sordid debt restructurings under way and hundred thousands of refugees on the way caused by war and increasing inequality. Together with the regulatory reactions they have caused in the form of so-called landmark legislation such as the Sarbanes-Oxley Act of 2002, the Dodd-Frank Act of 2010, the JOBS Act of 2012 or the introduction of the Basel Accords, Basel II in 2004 and III in 2010, the European Financial Stability Facility of 2010, the European Stability Mechanism of 2012 and the European Banking Union of 2013, Stahl analyses the acceleration in size and scope of crises that appears to find often seemingly helpless bureaucratic responses, the inherent legal risks and the complete lack of accountability on part of those responsible. Stahl argues that the order of the day requires to address the root cause of the problems in the form of two fundamental design defects of our Global Economic Order, namely our monetary and judicial order. Inspired by a 1933 plan of nine University of Chicago economists abolishing the fractional reserve system, he proposes the introduction of Sovereign Money as a prerequisite to void misallocations by way of judicial order in the course of domestic and transnational insolvency proceedings including the restructuring of sovereign debt throughout the entire monetary system back to its origin without causing domino effects of banking collapses and failed financial institutions. In recognizing Austrian-American economist Schumpeter’s Concept of Creative Destruction, as a process of industrial mutation that incessantly revolutionizes the economic structure from within, incessantly destroying the old one, incessantly creating a new one, Stahl responds to Schumpeter’s economic chemotherapy with his Concept of Equitable Default mimicking an immunotherapy that strengthens the corpus economicus own immune system by providing for the judicial authority to terminate precisely those misallocations that have proven malignant causing default perusing the century old common law concept of equity that allows for the equitable reformation, rescission or restitution of contract by way of judicial order. Following a review of the proposed mechanisms of transnational dispute resolution and current court systems with transnational jurisdiction, Stahl advocates as a first step in order to complete the Capital Formation Life Cycle from FIAT, the creation of money by way of credit, to EXIT, the termination of money by way of judicial order, the institution of a Transatlantic Trade and Investment Court constituted by a panel of judges from the U.S. Court of International Trade and the European Court of Justice by following the model of the EFTA Court of the European Free Trade Association. Since the first time his proposal has been made public in June of 2014 after being discussed in academic circles since 2011, his or similar proposals have found numerous public supporters. Most notably, the former Vice President of the European Parliament, David Martin, has tabled an amendment in June 2015 in the course of the negotiations on TTIP calling for an independent judicial body and the Member of the European Commission, Cecilia Malmström, has presented her proposal of an International Investment Court on September 16, 2015. Stahl concludes, that for the first time in the history of our generation it appears that there is a real opportunity for reform of our Global Economic Order by curing the two fundamental design defects of our monetary order and judicial order with the abolition of the fractional reserve system and the introduction of Sovereign Money and the institution of a democratically elected Transatlantic Trade and Investment Court that commensurate with its jurisdiction extending to cases concerning the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership may complete the Capital Formation Life Cycle resolving cases of default with the transnational judicial authority for terminal resolution of misallocations in a New Global Economic Order without the ensuing dangers of systemic collapse from FIAT to EXIT.

Universities and Welfare States Coping with Permanent Financial Austerity: Pressures on (Competing) Public Institutions

A chapter linking universities and welfare states to permanent financial austerity can take a shorter or a longer historical perspective. This chapter looks further back (to the postwar expansion of European welfare states) to better understand future transformations of both public institutions. Their long-term sustainability problems did not start with the financial crisis of 2008 but have been growing since the 1970s (Schäfer and Streeck 2013; Bonoli and Natali 2012; Hay and Wincott 2012). Financial austerity is not a post-crisis phenomenon. As a concept, it was used in welfare state research at least a decade earlier, although it does not seem to have been used in higher education studies until recently. Two quotations bring us to the heart of the matter: welfare states and universities are currently changing under adverse financial conditions caused by an array of interrelating and mutually reinforcing forces and their long-term financial sustainability is at stake across Europe. The welfare state is a “particular trademark of the European social model” (Svallfors 2012: 1), “the jewel in the crown” and a “fundamental part of what Europe stands for” (Giddens 2006: 14), as are tuition-free universities, the cornerstone of intergenerational social mobility in Continental Europe. The past trajectories of major types of welfare states and of universities in Europe tend to go hand in hand: first vastly expanding following the Second World War, and especially in the 1960s and 1970s, and then being in the state of permanent resource-driven and legitimacy-based “crisis” in the last two decades. Welfare states and universities, two critically important public institutions, seem to be under heavy attacks from the public, the media and politicians. Their long-term sustainability is being questioned, and solutions to their (real and perceived) problems are being sought at global, European, and national levels.

UNA REFLEXIÓN INTRODUCTORIA SOBRE LA NATURALEZA DE LA ACTUAL CRISIS GLOBAL Y LOS LÍMITES DEL CAPITALISMO

Resumen La actual crisis económica mundial puede ciertamente caracterizarse como de carácter sistémico y global, conjugándose a la vez con una crisis de civilización que pone en jaque no solo al sistema económico, sino al sistema de vida. Que no se trata de una crisis cíclica más es un hecho reconocido, pero necesitamos precisar su carácter, al menos de manera inicial y preliminar. En este ensayo apoyamos la tesis de una crisis sistémica global (o civilizatoria), pero sin dejar de advertir que los fundamentos del capitalismo también están mostrando sus límites históricos y exacerbando las amenazas globales sobre las condiciones de existencia de la vida; sin que por ello se trate, necesariamente, de una crisis terminal; y tanto las opciones capitalistas como las postcapitalistas y las anticapitalistas están a la orden del día. Abstract The current global economic crisis can certainly be characterized as a systemic and global one, combined with a crisis of civilization that puts in check not only the economic system, but the whole system of life. That it is not a simple cyclical crisis is widely acknowledged, but we need to specify the nature of it, at least in an initial and preliminary manner. In this essay we support the thesis of a global systemic crisis, but still warned that the foundations of capitalism are also showing its historical limits and exacerbating the global threats on the conditions of existence of life without it is required of a terminal crisis, and both options capitalists, post-capitalist and anti-capitalists are on the agenda.

Editorial : advancing innovation in accounting research

We live in uncertain times. The sub-prime crisis that commenced in the U.S. in 2007, the global economic crisis that followed, and the recent sovereign debt crisis in various European countries have led to ongoing instability in global financial markets that continues to receive daily media attention. These uncertain times create enormous opportunities for researchers across many disciplines to research capital markets and business practices. From an accounting perspective, accounting regulators have been active in developing new standards to address risk management issues arising from the crises and have continued to develop and refine financial reporting standards. With the adoption of, or transition to international financial reporting standards (IFRS) in many countries, the globalisation of financial reporting standards is close to becoming a reality. However, doubts still remain about whether the IFRS will lead to any real long-term improvement in financial reporting and transparency (see Sunder, 2011)...

Would you like data with that? Library provision of financial datasets

Within the QUT Business School (QUTBS)– researchers across economics, finance and accounting depend on data driven research. They analyze historic and global financial data across a range of instruments to understand the relationships and effects between them as they respond to news and events in their region. Scholars and Higher Degree Research Students in turn seek out universities which offer these particular datasets to further their research. This involves downloading and manipulating large datasets, often with a focus on depth of detail, frequency and long tail historical data. This is stock exchange data and has potential commercial value therefore the license for access tends to be very expensive. This poster reports the following findings: •The library has a part to play in freeing up researchers from the burden of negotiating subscriptions, fundraising and managing the legal requirements around license and access. •The role of the library is to communicate the nature and potential of these complex resources across the university to disciplines as diverse as Mathematics, Health, Information Systems and Creative Industries. •Has demonstrated clear concrete support for research by QUT Library and built relationships into faculty. It has made data available to all researchers and attracted new HDRs. The aim is to reach the output threshold of research outputs to submit into FOR Code 1502 (Banking, Finance and Investment) for ERA 2015. •It is difficult to identify what subset of dataset will be obtained given somewhat vague price tiers. •The integrity of data is variable as it is limited by the way it is collected, this occasionally raises issues for researchers(Cook, Campbell, & Kelly, 2012) •Improved library understanding of the content of our products and the nature of financial based research is a necessary part of the service.

Cortisol shifts financial risk preferences

Risk taking is central to human activity. Consequently, it lies at the focal point of behavioral sciences such as neuroscience, economics, and finance. Many influential models from these sciences assume that financial risk preferences form a stable trait. Is this assumption justified and, if not, what causes the appetite for risk to fluctuate? We have previously found that traders experience a sustained increase in the stress hormone cortisol when the amount of uncertainty, in the form of market volatility, increases. Here we ask whether these elevated cortisol levels shift risk preferences. Using a double-blind, placebo-controlled, cross-over protocol we raised cortisol levels in volunteers over eight days to the same extent previously observed in traders. We then tested for the utility and probability weighting functions underlying their risk taking, and found that participants became more risk averse. We also observed that the weighting of probabilities became more distorted among men relative to women. These results suggest that risk preferences are highly dynamic. Specifically, the stress response calibrates risk taking to our circumstances, reducing it in times of prolonged uncertainty, such as a financial crisis. Physiology-induced shifts in risk preferences may thus be an under-appreciated cause of market instability.

Global Politics of Health

International responses to the outbreak of SARS, the spread of HIV/AIDS, and the promotion of health as a human right all demonstrate how global politics have a profound effect on the way we think about and respond to major health challenges. Despite a growing interest in the relationship between health and international relations there has yet to be a systematic study of the links between them. Global Health Issues aims to fill this gap – ultimately showing how world politics can be good, or bad, for your health. This book calls for a more nuanced understanding of the nature of the current global health crisis and the political dilemmas faced by those responsible for the development and implementation of responses to it. By charting these debates and showing how they shape the way actors think about key issues relating to health, such as people movement; infectious disease; the business of health; and the consequences of war; this volume provides an innovative and comprehensive introduction to health and international relations for students of global politics, health studies and related disciplines.

What impact might the economic crisis have on HIV epidemics in Southeast Asia?

Objective: To evaluate the potential impact of the current global economic crisis (GEC) on the spread of HIV. Design: To evaluate the impact of the economic downturn we studied two distinct HIV epidemics in Southeast Asia: the generalized epidemic in Cambodia where incidence is declining and the epidemic in Papua New Guinea (PNG) which is in an expansion phase. Methods: Major HIV-related risk factors that may change due to the GEC were identified and a dynamic mathematical transmission model was developed and used to forecast HIV prevalence, diagnoses, and incidence in Cambodia and PNG over the next 3 years. Results: In Cambodia, the total numbers of HIV diagnoses are not expected to be largely affected. However, an estimated increase of up to 10% in incident cases of HIV, due to potential changes in behavior, may not be observed by the surveillance system. In PNG, HIV incidence and diagnoses could be more affected by the GEC, resulting in respective increases of up to 17% and 11% over the next 3 years. Decreases in VCT and education programs are the factors that may be of greatest concern in both settings. A reduction in the rollout of antiretroviral therapy could increase the number of AIDS-related deaths (by up to 7.5% after 3 years). Conclusions: The GEC is likely to have a modest impact on HIV epidemics. However, there are plausible conditions under which the economic downturns can noticeably influence epidemic trends. This study highlights the high importance of maintaining funding for HIV programs.

Pricing credit derivatives

The financial crisis set off by the default of Lehman Brothers in 2008 leading to disastrous consequences for the global economy has focused attention on regulation and pricing issues related to credit derivatives. Credit risk refers to the potential losses that can arise due to the changes in the credit quality of financial instruments. These changes could be due to changes in the ratings, market price (spread) or default on contractual obligations. Credit derivatives are financial instruments designed to mitigate the adverse impact that may arise due to credit risks. However, they also allow the investors to take up purely speculative positions. In this article we provide a succinct introduction to the notions of credit risk, the credit derivatives market and describe some of the important credit derivative products. There are two approaches to pricing credit derivatives, namely the structural and the reduced form or intensity-based models. A crucial aspect of the modelling that we touch upon briefly in this article is the problem of calibration of these models. We hope to convey through this article the challenges that are inherent in credit risk modelling, the elegant mathematics and concepts that underlie some of the models and the importance of understanding the limitations of the models.

The principled executive

Resumen: El artículo presenta el problema de la escisión del hombre de negocios entre su esfera pública en el ámbito del management, y el ámbito privado de la vida familiar y religiosa. Señala la importancia del documento pontificio al detectar este problema e intentar establecer modos de mitigarlo. El autor analiza el tema de la vocación empresaria en el mundo actual, que los nuevos líderes deben poseer para poder enfrentar los problemas propios del mundo financiero tras la crisis económica mundial del año 2008. Finalmente, hace referencia a la importancia de la educación, especialmente dentro del marco de las Universidades católicas