Viabilidad del sistema de pensiones y reformas por el lado de los ingresos: una aproximación intergeneracional

Este artículo, mediante el método de la Contabilidad Generacional, examina la viabilidad a largo plazo y los efectos sobre la redistribución intergeneracional de la renta del sistema de pensiones español. Dado la enorme deuda acumulada, que se traslada a las generaciones futuras, se explora la posibilidad de introducir políticas de reforma por el lado de los ingresos que pretenden mitigar la fuerte dependencia demográfica de las finanzas de la Seguridad Social. El principal resultado obtenido es que la gravedad de la crisis demográfica hace que estos tipos de medidas estudiadas sean claramente insuficientes para restaurar el equilibrio intergeneracional.

La Ley de Estabilidad Presupuestaria en el largo plazo: efecto del ciclo demográfico

La actual situación económica y las perspectivas presupuestarias a largo plazo han suscitado una discusión acerca de la conveniencia de la Ley de Estabilidad Presupuestaria. Este trabajo, empleando contabilidad generacional, evalúa la sostenibilidad de la política fiscal española ampliando el horizonte temporal más allá del ciclo de los negocios, considerando los efectos del ciclo demográfico. Los resultados muestran que, aunque el proceso de consolidación fiscal ha mejorado ostensiblemente la situación financiera de las AA.PP, se sigue trasladando al futuro una deuda implí­cita sustancial

Beyond the Toledo agreement : the intergenerational impact of the spanish pension reform

The paper examines the intergenerational impact of the Spanish public pension system after the 1997 Pension Reform Act. Working within a Generational Accounting framework, we find that maintaining the new legal setting could leave future generations with liabilities as high as 176 percent of base year GDP. As the recent reform measures have been insufficient to achieve the sustainability of the current pension system, we also analyse the impact of alternative reform strategies. Within the current pay-as-you-go setting, a further improvement to tax-benefit linkage in line with the original spirit of the Toledo Agreement is shown to yield and intergenerationally more balanced outcome,than an increase in the retirement age or an expansion of public subsidies financed through indirect taxes. Finally, we examine the generational impact of a move toward a partially funded pension system which might restore theintergenerational balance

Identification and validation of copy number variants using SNP genotyping arrays from a large clinical cohort.

BACKGROUND: Genotypes obtained with commercial SNP arrays have been extensively used in many large case-control or population-based cohorts for SNP-based genome-wide association studies for a multitude of traits. Yet, these genotypes capture only a small fraction of the variance of the studied traits. Genomic structural variants (GSV) such as Copy Number Variation (CNV) may account for part of the missing heritability, but their comprehensive detection requires either next-generation arrays or sequencing. Sophisticated algorithms that infer CNVs by combining the intensities from SNP-probes for the two alleles can already be used to extract a partial view of such GSV from existing data sets. RESULTS: Here we present several advances to facilitate the latter approach. First, we introduce a novel CNV detection method based on a Gaussian Mixture Model. Second, we propose a new algorithm, PCA merge, for combining copy-number profiles from many individuals into consensus regions. We applied both our new methods as well as existing ones to data from 5612 individuals from the CoLaus study who were genotyped on Affymetrix 500K arrays. We developed a number of procedures in order to evaluate the performance of the different methods. This includes comparison with previously published CNVs as well as using a replication sample of 239 individuals, genotyped with Illumina 550K arrays. We also established a new evaluation procedure that employs the fact that related individuals are expected to share their CNVs more frequently than randomly selected individuals. The ability to detect both rare and common CNVs provides a valuable resource that will facilitate association studies exploring potential phenotypic associations with CNVs. CONCLUSION: Our new methodologies for CNV detection and their evaluation will help in extracting additional information from the large amount of SNP-genotyping data on various cohorts and use this to explore structural variants and their impact on complex traits.

Guidelines for perioperative care in elective colonic surgery: Enhanced Recovery After Surgery (ERAS®) Society recommendations.

BACKGROUND: This review aims to present a consensus for optimal perioperative care in colonic surgery and to provide graded recommendations for items for an evidenced-based enhanced perioperative protocol. METHODS: Studies were selected with particular attention paid to meta-analyses, randomised controlled trials and large prospective cohorts. For each item of the perioperative treatment pathway, available English-language literature was examined, reviewed and graded. A consensus recommendation was reached after critical appraisal of the literature by the group. RESULTS: For most of the protocol items, recommendations are based on good-quality trials or meta-analyses of good-quality trials (quality of evidence and recommendations according to the GRADE system). CONCLUSIONS: Based on the evidence available for each item of the multimodal perioperative-care pathway, the Enhanced Recovery After Surgery (ERAS) Society, International Association for Surgical Metabolism and Nutrition (IASMEN) and European Society for Clinical Nutrition and Metabolism (ESPEN) present a comprehensive evidence-based consensus review of perioperative care for colonic surgery.

An Analysis of OWI Arrests and Convictions in Iowa, 2011

The primary goal of the project was to document the demographic profile of OWI offenders in Iowa. The study is based on both aggregate and case-level data. The case level data produced a final sample of 118,675 OWI convictions. That occurred from 2000 through 2009. The great majority of convicted offenders were White males. From 2000 through 2009 the percentage of convictions received by women increased by 34%. Defendants’ average age of was 30 years old, and the age cohorts of 15 to 24, 25 to 34, and 34 to 45 were overrepresented among convicted offenders. Whites were underrepresented among OWI defendants. African Americans, Hispanics and Native Americans were overrepresented. From 2000 through 2009, the percentage of aggravated misdemeanor felony OWI convictions received by Hispanics and African Americans increased significantly. The percentage of OWI convictions received by women and African Americans increased significantly after implementation of the .08 BAC law. We did not find convincing evidence of a direct relationship between enforcement trends and the alcohol related traffic fatalities (ARTFs). However, the ten year Iowa conviction trends did provide evidence of a conviction lag effect on Iowa’s ARTFs. The research findings established the basis for a phase two project that would assess the efficacy of OWI sentencing practices in Iowa.

Human leukocyte antigen class II variants and adult-onset asthma: does occupational allergen exposure play a role?

Recently, a locus centred on rs9273349 in the HLA-DQ region emerged from genome-wide association studies of adult-onset asthma. We aimed to further investigate the role of human leukocyte antigen (HLA) class II in adult-onset asthma and a possible interaction with occupational exposures. We imputed classical HLA-II alleles from 7579 single-nucleotide polymorphisms in 6025 subjects (1202 with adult-onset asthma) from European cohorts: ECRHS, SAPALDIA, EGEA and B58C, and from surveys of bakers and agricultural workers. Based on an asthma-specific job-exposure matrix, 2629 subjects had ever been exposed to high molecular weight (HMW) allergens. We explored associations between 23 common HLA-II alleles and adult-onset asthma, and tested for gene-environment interaction with occupational exposure to HMW allergens. Interaction was also tested for rs9273349. Marginal associations of classical HLA-II alleles and adult-onset asthma were not statistically significant. Interaction was detected between the DPB1*03:01 allele and exposure to HMW allergens (p = 0.009), in particular to latex (p = 0.01). In the unexposed group, the DPB1*03:01 allele was associated with adult-onset asthma (OR 0.67, 95%CI 0.53-0.86). HMW allergen exposures did not modify the association of rs9273349 with adult-onset asthma. Common classical HLA-II alleles were not marginally associated with adult-onset asthma. The association of latex exposure and adult-onset asthma may be modified by DPB1*03:01.

One-year acyclovir prophylaxis for preventing varicella-zoster virus disease after hematopoietic cell transplantation: no evidence of rebound varicella-zoster virus disease after drug discontinuation.

No consensus exists on whether acyclovir prophylaxis should be given for varicella-zoster virus (VZV) prophylaxis after hematopoietic cell transplantation because of the concern of "rebound" VZV disease after discontinuation of prophylaxis. To determine whether rebound VZV disease is an important clinical problem and whether prolonging prophylaxis beyond 1 year is beneficial, we examined 3 sequential cohorts receiving acyclovir from day of transplantation until engraftment for prevention of herpes simplex virus reactivation (n = 932); acyclovir or valacyclovir 1 year (n = 1117); or acyclovir/valacyclovir for at least 1 year or longer if patients remained on immunosuppressive drugs (n = 586). In multivariable statistical models, prophylaxis given for 1 year significantly reduced VZV disease (P < .001) without evidence of rebound VZV disease. Continuation of prophylaxis beyond 1 year in allogeneic recipients who remained on immunosuppressive drugs led to a further reduction in VZV disease (P = .01) but VZV disease developed in 6.1% during the second year while receiving this strategy. In conclusion, acyclovir/valacyclovir prophylaxis given for 1 year led to a persistent benefit after drug discontinuation and no evidence of a rebound effect. To effectively prevent VZV disease in long-term hematopoietic cell transplantation survivors, additional approaches such as vaccination will probably be required.

Recurrence of status epilepticus: Prognostic role and outcome predictors.

OBJECTIVE: Predictors of morbidity and mortality after status epilepticus (SE) have been studied extensively in hospital- and population-based cohorts. However, little attention has been directed toward SE recurrence after an incident episode. We investigated clinical and demographic characteristics of patients presenting SE recurrence and its specific prognostic role. METHODS: In this observational cohort study, we screened our prospective registry of consecutive adults with SE between April 2006 and February 2014. Demographic and clinical data were compared between incident and recurrent SE episodes; risk of SE recurrence was assessed through survival analysis, and the prognostic role of SE recurrence with multivariable logistic regressions. RESULTS: Of the incident cohort (509 patients), 68 (13%) experienced recurrent SE. The cumulative recurrence rate over 4 years was 32%. Recurrence risk was significantly reduced after an acute SE etiology (hazard ratio [HR] 0.5, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.31-0.82; p = 0.005), and was borderline increased in women (HR 1.59, 95% CI 0.97-2.65; p = 0.06). Although recurrent SE episodes showed lower morbidity and mortality, prognosis was independently related to Status Epilepticus Severity Score (STESS) and potentially fatal etiology, but not to SE recurrence. SIGNIFICANCE: This study provides class III evidence that SE recurrence involves a significant proportion of patients, and that recurrence risk is independently associated with chronic etiology and to a lesser extent with female gender. However, contrary to underlying cause and SE severity, SE recurrence per se does not independently correlate with outcome. Early identification of patients at higher risk of SE recurrence may influence their management during follow-up.

MGMT methylation analysis of glioblastoma on the Infinium methylation BeadChip identifies two distinct CpG regions associated with gene silencing and outcome, yielding a prediction model for comparisons across datasets, tumor grades, and CIMP-status.

The methylation status of the O(6)-methylguanine-DNA methyltransferase (MGMT) gene is an important predictive biomarker for benefit from alkylating agent therapy in glioblastoma. Recent studies in anaplastic glioma suggest a prognostic value for MGMT methylation. Investigation of pathogenetic and epigenetic features of this intriguingly distinct behavior requires accurate MGMT classification to assess high throughput molecular databases. Promoter methylation-mediated gene silencing is strongly dependent on the location of the methylated CpGs, complicating classification. Using the HumanMethylation450 (HM-450K) BeadChip interrogating 176 CpGs annotated for the MGMT gene, with 14 located in the promoter, two distinct regions in the CpG island of the promoter were identified with high importance for gene silencing and outcome prediction. A logistic regression model (MGMT-STP27) comprising probes cg1243587 and cg12981137 provided good classification properties and prognostic value (kappa = 0.85; log-rank p < 0.001) using a training-set of 63 glioblastomas from homogenously treated patients, for whom MGMT methylation was previously shown to be predictive for outcome based on classification by methylation-specific PCR. MGMT-STP27 was successfully validated in an independent cohort of chemo-radiotherapy-treated glioblastoma patients (n = 50; kappa = 0.88; outcome, log-rank p < 0.001). Lower prevalence of MGMT methylation among CpG island methylator phenotype (CIMP) positive tumors was found in glioblastomas from The Cancer Genome Atlas than in low grade and anaplastic glioma cohorts, while in CIMP-negative gliomas MGMT was classified as methylated in approximately 50 % regardless of tumor grade. The proposed MGMT-STP27 prediction model allows mining of datasets derived on the HM-450K or HM-27K BeadChip to explore effects of distinct epigenetic context of MGMT methylation suspected to modulate treatment resistance in different tumor types.

A comprehensive analysis of human gene expression profiles identifies stromal immunoglobulin κ C as a compatible prognostic marker in human solid tumors.

PURPOSE: Although the central role of the immune system for tumor prognosis is generally accepted, a single robust marker is not yet available. EXPERIMENTAL DESIGN: On the basis of receiver operating characteristic analyses, robust markers were identified from a 60-gene B cell-derived metagene and analyzed in gene expression profiles of 1,810 breast cancer; 1,056 non-small cell lung carcinoma (NSCLC); 513 colorectal; and 426 ovarian cancer patients. Protein and RNA levels were examined in paraffin-embedded tissue of 330 breast cancer patients. The cell types were identified with immunohistochemical costaining and confocal fluorescence microscopy. RESULTS: We identified immunoglobulin κ C (IGKC) which as a single marker is similarly predictive and prognostic as the entire B-cell metagene. IGKC was consistently associated with metastasis-free survival across different molecular subtypes in node-negative breast cancer (n = 965) and predicted response to anthracycline-based neoadjuvant chemotherapy (n = 845; P < 0.001). In addition, IGKC gene expression was prognostic in NSCLC and colorectal cancer. No association was observed in ovarian cancer. IGKC protein expression was significantly associated with survival in paraffin-embedded tissues of 330 breast cancer patients. Tumor-infiltrating plasma cells were identified as the source of IGKC expression. CONCLUSION: Our findings provide IGKC as a novel diagnostic marker for risk stratification in human cancer and support concepts to exploit the humoral immune response for anticancer therapy. It could be validated in several independent cohorts and carried out similarly well in RNA from fresh frozen as well as from paraffin tissue and on protein level by immunostaining.

Laskeva äänestysaktiivisuus sukupolvi-ilmiönä

Abstract: Declining voter turnout B a generational effect?

Genetic Association of Recovery from Eating Disorders: The Role of GABA Receptor SNPs.

Follow-up studies of eating disorders (EDs) suggest outcomes ranging from recovery to chronic illness or death, but predictors of outcome have not been consistently identified. We tested 5151 single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in approximately 350 candidate genes for association with recovery from ED in 1878 women. Initial analyses focused on a strictly defined discovery cohort of women who were over age 25 years, carried a lifetime diagnosis of an ED, and for whom data were available regarding the presence (n=361 ongoing symptoms in the past year, ie, 'ill') or absence (n=115 no symptoms in the past year, ie, 'recovered') of ED symptoms. An intronic SNP (rs17536211) in GABRG1 showed the strongest statistical evidence of association (p=4.63 × 10(-6), false discovery rate (FDR)=0.021, odds ratio (OR)=0.46). We replicated these findings in a more liberally defined cohort of women age 25 years or younger (n=464 ill, n=107 recovered; p=0.0336, OR=0.68; combined sample p=4.57 × 10(-6), FDR=0.0049, OR=0.55). Enrichment analyses revealed that GABA (γ-aminobutyric acid) SNPs were over-represented among SNPs associated at p<0.05 in both the discovery (Z=3.64, p=0.0003) and combined cohorts (Z=2.07, p=0.0388). In follow-up phenomic association analyses with a third independent cohort (n=154 ED cases, n=677 controls), rs17536211 was associated with trait anxiety (p=0.049), suggesting a possible mechanism through which this variant may influence ED outcome. These findings could provide new insights into the development of more effective interventions for the most treatment-resistant patients.

Common variants in UMOD associate with urinary uromodulin levels: a meta-analysis.

Uromodulin is expressed exclusively in the thick ascending limb and is the most abundant protein excreted in normal urine. Variants in UMOD, which encodes uromodulin, are associated with renal function, and urinary uromodulin levels may be a biomarker for kidney disease. However, the genetic factors regulating uromodulin excretion are unknown. We conducted a meta-analysis of urinary uromodulin levels to identify associated common genetic variants in the general population. We included 10,884 individuals of European descent from three genetic isolates and three urban cohorts. Each study measured uromodulin indexed to creatinine and conducted linear regression analysis of approximately 2.5 million single nucleotide polymorphisms using an additive model. We also tested whether variants in genes expressed in the thick ascending limb associate with uromodulin levels. rs12917707, located near UMOD and previously associated with renal function and CKD, had the strongest association with urinary uromodulin levels (P<0.001). In all cohorts, carriers of a G allele of this variant had higher uromodulin levels than noncarriers did (geometric means 10.24, 14.05, and 17.67 μg/g creatinine for zero, one, or two copies of the G allele). rs12446492 in the adjacent gene PDILT (protein disulfide isomerase-like, testis expressed) also reached genome-wide significance (P<0.001). Regarding genes expressed in the thick ascending limb, variants in KCNJ1, SORL1, and CAB39 associated with urinary uromodulin levels. These data indicate that common variants in the UMOD promoter region may influence urinary uromodulin levels. They also provide insights into uromodulin biology and the association of UMOD variants with renal function.

Methicillin-susceptible Staphylococcus aureus endocarditis isolates are associated with clonal complex 30 genotype and a distinct repertoire of enterotoxins and adhesins.

BACKGROUND: Using multinational collections of methicillin-susceptible Staphylococcus aureus (MSSA) isolates from infective endocarditis (IE) and soft tissue infections (STIs), we sought to (1) validate the finding that S. aureus in clonal complex (CC) 30 is associated with hematogenous complications and (2) test the hypothesis that specific genetic characteristics in S. aureus are associated with infection severity. METHODS: IE and STI isolates from 2 cohorts were frequency matched by geographic origin. Isolates underwent spa typing to infer CC and multiplex polymerase chain reaction for presence of virulence genes. RESULTS: 114 isolate pairs were genotyped. IE isolates were more likely to be CC30 (19.5% vs 6.2%; P = .005) and to contain 3 adhesins (clfB, cna, map/eap; P < .0001 for all) and 5 enterotoxins (tst, sea, sed, see, and sei; P ≤ .005 for all). CC30 isolates were more likely to contain cna, tst, sea, see, seg, and chp (P < .05 for all). CONCLUSIONS: MSSA IE isolates were significantly more likely to be CC30 and to possess a distinct repertoire of virulence genes than MSSA STI isolates from the same region. The genetic basis of this association requires further study.