Is the obesity epidemic exaggerated? Clues from a developing country

Rapid response to: Patrick Basham and John Luik. Is the obesity epidemic exaggerated? Yes. BMJ 2008; 336: 244. doi: 10.1136/bmj.39458.495127.AD

Risk factors of stroke mortality in the African region: a cohort study

Background: Population-based cohort studies of risk factors of stroke are scarce in developing countries and none has been done in the African region. We conducted a longitudinal study in the Seychelles (Indian Ocean, east of Kenya), a middle-income island state where the majority of the population is of African descent. Such data in Africa are important for international comparison and for advocacy in the region. Methods: Three examination surveys of cardiovascular risk factors were performed in independent samples representative of the general population aged 25-64 in 1989, 1994 and 2004 (n=1081, 1067, and 1255, respectively). Baseline risk factors data were linked with cause-specific mortality from vital statistics up to May 2007 (all deaths are medically certified in the Seychelles and kept in an electronic database). We considered stroke (any type) as a cause of death if the diagnosis was reported in any of the 4 fields in the death certificates for underlying and concomitant causes of death. Results. Among the 2479 persons aged 35-64 at baseline, 280 died including 56 with stroke during follow up (maximum: 18.2 years; mean: 10.2 years). In this age range, age-adjusted mortality rates (/100'000/year) were 969 for all cause and 187 for stroke; age-adjusted prevalence of high blood pressure (≥140/90 mmHg) was 48%. In multivariate Cox survival time regression, stroke mortality was increased by 18% and 35% for a 10-mmHg increase in systolic, respectively diastolic BP (p<0.001). Stroke mortality was also associated with age, smoking ≥5 cigarettes vs. no smoking (HR: 2.4; 95% CI: 1.2-4.8) and diabetes (HR: 1.9; 1.02-3.6) but not with sex, LDL-cholesterol intake, alcohol intake and professional occupation. Conclusion. This first population-based cohort study in the African region demonstrates high mortality rates from stroke in middle-aged adults and confirms associations with high BP and other risk factors. This emphasizes the importance of reducing BP and other modifiable risk factors in high risk individuals and in the general population as a main strategy to reduce the burden of stroke.

The contribution of rectangularization to the secular increase of life expectancy: an empirical study.

BACKGROUND: In low-mortality countries, life expectancy is increasing steadily. This increase can be disentangled into two separate components: the delayed incidence of death (i.e. the rectangularization of the survival curve) and the shift of maximal age at death to the right (i.e. the extension of longevity). METHODS: We studied the secular increase of life expectancy at age 50 in nine European countries between 1922 and 2006. The respective contributions of rectangularization and longevity to increasing life expectancy are quantified with a specific tool. RESULTS: For men, an acceleration of rectangularization was observed in the 1980s in all nine countries, whereas a deceleration occurred among women in six countries in the 1960s. These diverging trends are likely to reflect the gender-specific trends in smoking. As for longevity, the extension was steady from 1922 in both genders in almost all countries. The gain of years due to longevity extension exceeded the gain due to rectangularization. This predominance over rectangularization was still observed during the most recent decades. CONCLUSIONS: Disentangling life expectancy into components offers new insights into the underlying mechanisms and possible determinants. Rectangularization mainly reflects the secular changes of the known determinants of early mortality, including smoking. Explaining the increase of maximal age at death is a more complex challenge. It might be related to slow and lifelong changes in the socio-economic environment and lifestyles as well as population composition. The still increasing longevity does not suggest that we are approaching any upper limit of human longevity.

La prévalence des douleurs du dos et de ses facteurs de risque chez les citoyens suisses convoqués à leur recrutement en Suisse romande en 1985

L'objet de cette étude est d'estimer la prévalence des douleurs du racis chez les jeunes hommes convoqués pour la première fois à leur recrutement en Suisse romande en 1985. On s'intéresse donc aux douleurs présentes au moment du recrutement, mais également aux douleurs déjà révolues, puisqu'on sait qu'il s'agit d'une affection qui récidive facilement. Ceci est donc considéré comme un facteur de risque. D'autres facteurs de risque tels que le sport et la profession exercée seront analysés afin d'estimer leur influence sur la prévalence des cervico-dorso-lombalgies. [Auteur, p. 7]

Mortinatalité et mortalité infantile dans le canton du Valais

[Table des matières] Caractéristiques des naissances, 1979-1985. Evolution séculaire des mortalités néonatale, post-néonatale et infantile par sexe, 1901-1987 (données quinquennales). Evolution de la mortinatalité par sexe, 1969-1987. Taux de mortalité, canton de Valais, 1979-1985(87).

Dépistage: principes et méthodes. [Screening: principles and methods].

The concept of early detection to then intervene and improve the prognostic seems straightforward. Applied to asymptomatic subjects, this concept--screening--is rather complex. This review presents the rational and fundamental principles of screening. It underscores the fundamental principles related to the disease and to the screening test considered, the importance of considering screening as a program rather than a test only, and the validity of measures used to evaluate the efficacy of screening. Lastly, it reviews the most frequently bias encountered in screening studies and interpretations.