889 resultados para Forecast error variance
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Self-dual doubly even linear binary error-correcting codes, often referred to as Type II codes, are codes closely related to many combinatorial structures such as 5-designs. Extremal codes are codes that have the largest possible minimum distance for a given length and dimension. The existence of an extremal (72,36,16) Type II code is still open. Previous results show that the automorphism group of a putative code C with the aforementioned properties has order 5 or dividing 24. In this work, we present a method and the results of an exhaustive search showing that such a code C cannot admit an automorphism group Z6. In addition, we present so far unpublished construction of the extended Golay code by P. Becker. We generalize the notion and provide example of another Type II code that can be obtained in this fashion. Consequently, we relate Becker's construction to the construction of binary Type II codes from codes over GF(2^r) via the Gray map.
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Ordered gene problems are a very common classification of optimization problems. Because of their popularity countless algorithms have been developed in an attempt to find high quality solutions to the problems. It is also common to see many different types of problems reduced to ordered gene style problems as there are many popular heuristics and metaheuristics for them due to their popularity. Multiple ordered gene problems are studied, namely, the travelling salesman problem, bin packing problem, and graph colouring problem. In addition, two bioinformatics problems not traditionally seen as ordered gene problems are studied: DNA error correction and DNA fragment assembly. These problems are studied with multiple variations and combinations of heuristics and metaheuristics with two distinct types or representations. The majority of the algorithms are built around the Recentering- Restarting Genetic Algorithm. The algorithm variations were successful on all problems studied, and particularly for the two bioinformatics problems. For DNA Error Correction multiple cases were found with 100% of the codes being corrected. The algorithm variations were also able to beat all other state-of-the-art DNA Fragment Assemblers on 13 out of 16 benchmark problem instances.
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Presented at Access 2014, winner of poster contest.
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The purpose of the present study was to determine which augmented sensory modality would best develop subjective error-detection capabilities of learners performing a spatial-temporal task when using a touch screen monitor. Participants were required to learn a 5-digit key-pressing task in a goal time of 2550 ms over 100 acquisition trials on a touch screen. Participants were randomized into 1 of 4 groups: 1) visual-feedback (colour change of button when selected), 2) auditory-feedback (click sound when button was selected), 3) visual-auditory feedback (both colour change and click sound when button was selected), and 4) no-feedback (no colour change or click sound when button was selected). Following each trial, participants were required to provide a subjective estimate regarding their performance time in relation to the actual time it took for them complete the 5-digit sequence. A no-KR retention test was conducted approximately 24-hours after the last completed acquisition trial. Results showed that practicing a timing task on a touch screen augmented with both visual and auditory information may have differentially impacted motor skill acquisition such that removal of one or both sources of augmented feedback did not result in a severe detriment to timing performance or error detection capabilities of the learner. The present study reflects the importance of multimodal augmented feedback conditions to maximize cognitive abilities for developing a stronger motor memory for subjective error-detection and correction capabilities.
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Letter to S.D. Woodruff from an illegible signature stating that he suspects a clerical error in one of the columns, n.d.
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UANL
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This note develops general model-free adjustment procedures for the calculation of unbiased volatility loss functions based on practically feasible realized volatility benchmarks. The procedures, which exploit the recent asymptotic distributional results in Barndorff-Nielsen and Shephard (2002a), are both easy to implement and highly accurate in empirically realistic situations. On properly accounting for the measurement errors in the volatility forecast evaluations reported in Andersen, Bollerslev, Diebold and Labys (2003), the adjustments result in markedly higher estimates for the true degree of return-volatility predictability.
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In this paper, we propose several finite-sample specification tests for multivariate linear regressions (MLR) with applications to asset pricing models. We focus on departures from the assumption of i.i.d. errors assumption, at univariate and multivariate levels, with Gaussian and non-Gaussian (including Student t) errors. The univariate tests studied extend existing exact procedures by allowing for unspecified parameters in the error distributions (e.g., the degrees of freedom in the case of the Student t distribution). The multivariate tests are based on properly standardized multivariate residuals to ensure invariance to MLR coefficients and error covariances. We consider tests for serial correlation, tests for multivariate GARCH and sign-type tests against general dependencies and asymmetries. The procedures proposed provide exact versions of those applied in Shanken (1990) which consist in combining univariate specification tests. Specifically, we combine tests across equations using the MC test procedure to avoid Bonferroni-type bounds. Since non-Gaussian based tests are not pivotal, we apply the “maximized MC” (MMC) test method [Dufour (2002)], where the MC p-value for the tested hypothesis (which depends on nuisance parameters) is maximized (with respect to these nuisance parameters) to control the test’s significance level. The tests proposed are applied to an asset pricing model with observable risk-free rates, using monthly returns on New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) portfolios over five-year subperiods from 1926-1995. Our empirical results reveal the following. Whereas univariate exact tests indicate significant serial correlation, asymmetries and GARCH in some equations, such effects are much less prevalent once error cross-equation covariances are accounted for. In addition, significant departures from the i.i.d. hypothesis are less evident once we allow for non-Gaussian errors.
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In this paper, we propose exact inference procedures for asset pricing models that can be formulated in the framework of a multivariate linear regression (CAPM), allowing for stable error distributions. The normality assumption on the distribution of stock returns is usually rejected in empirical studies, due to excess kurtosis and asymmetry. To model such data, we propose a comprehensive statistical approach which allows for alternative - possibly asymmetric - heavy tailed distributions without the use of large-sample approximations. The methods suggested are based on Monte Carlo test techniques. Goodness-of-fit tests are formally incorporated to ensure that the error distributions considered are empirically sustainable, from which exact confidence sets for the unknown tail area and asymmetry parameters of the stable error distribution are derived. Tests for the efficiency of the market portfolio (zero intercepts) which explicitly allow for the presence of (unknown) nuisance parameter in the stable error distribution are derived. The methods proposed are applied to monthly returns on 12 portfolios of the New York Stock Exchange over the period 1926-1995 (5 year subperiods). We find that stable possibly skewed distributions provide statistically significant improvement in goodness-of-fit and lead to fewer rejections of the efficiency hypothesis.
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Les employés d’un organisme utilisent souvent un schéma de classification personnel pour organiser les documents électroniques qui sont sous leur contrôle direct, ce qui suggère la difficulté pour d’autres employés de repérer ces documents et la perte possible de documentation pour l’organisme. Aucune étude empirique n’a été menée à ce jour afin de vérifier dans quelle mesure les schémas de classification personnels permettent, ou même facilitent, le repérage des documents électroniques par des tiers, dans le cadre d’un travail collaboratif par exemple, ou lorsqu’il s’agit de reconstituer un dossier. Le premier objectif de notre recherche était de décrire les caractéristiques de schémas de classification personnels utilisés pour organiser et classer des documents administratifs électroniques. Le deuxième objectif consistait à vérifier, dans un environnement contrôlé, les différences sur le plan de l’efficacité du repérage de documents électroniques qui sont fonction du schéma de classification utilisé. Nous voulions vérifier s’il était possible de repérer un document avec la même efficacité, quel que soit le schéma de classification utilisé pour ce faire. Une collecte de données en deux étapes fut réalisée pour atteindre ces objectifs. Nous avons d’abord identifié les caractéristiques structurelles, logiques et sémantiques de 21 schémas de classification utilisés par des employés de l’Université de Montréal pour organiser et classer les documents électroniques qui sont sous leur contrôle direct. Par la suite, nous avons comparé, à partir d'une expérimentation contrôlée, la capacité d’un groupe de 70 répondants à repérer des documents électroniques à l’aide de cinq schémas de classification ayant des caractéristiques structurelles, logiques et sémantiques variées. Trois variables ont été utilisées pour mesurer l’efficacité du repérage : la proportion de documents repérés, le temps moyen requis (en secondes) pour repérer les documents et la proportion de documents repérés dès le premier essai. Les résultats révèlent plusieurs caractéristiques structurelles, logiques et sémantiques communes à une majorité de schémas de classification personnels : macro-structure étendue, structure peu profonde, complexe et déséquilibrée, regroupement par thème, ordre alphabétique des classes, etc. Les résultats des tests d’analyse de la variance révèlent des différences significatives sur le plan de l’efficacité du repérage de documents électroniques qui sont fonction des caractéristiques structurelles, logiques et sémantiques du schéma de classification utilisé. Un schéma de classification caractérisé par une macro-structure peu étendue et une logique basée partiellement sur une division par classes d’activités augmente la probabilité de repérer plus rapidement les documents. Au plan sémantique, une dénomination explicite des classes (par exemple, par utilisation de définitions ou en évitant acronymes et abréviations) augmente la probabilité de succès au repérage. Enfin, un schéma de classification caractérisé par une macro-structure peu étendue, une logique basée partiellement sur une division par classes d’activités et une sémantique qui utilise peu d’abréviations augmente la probabilité de repérer les documents dès le premier essai.