The effect of life expectancy on fertility, saving, schooling and economic growth: theory and evidence

We construct a simple growth model where agents with uncertain survival choose schooling time, life-cycle consumption and the number of children. We show that rising longevity reduces fertility but raises saving, schooling time and the growth rate at a diminishing rate. Cross-section analyses using data from 76 countries support these propositions: life expectancy has a significant positive effect on the saving rate, secondary school enrollment and growth but a significant negative effect on fertility. Through sensitivity analyses, the effect on the saving rate is inconclusive, while the effects on the other variables are robust and consistent. These estimated effects are decreasing in life expectancy. Copyright The editors of the Scandinavian Journal of Economics 2005.

Gender differentials in the evolution of cigarette smoking habits in a general European adult population from 1993-2003

Background: Describe the recent evolution of cigarette smoking habits by gender in Geneva, where incidence rates of lung cancer have been declining in men but increasing in women. Methods: Continuous cross-sectional surveillance of the general adult ( 35 - 74 yrs) population of Geneva, Switzerland for 11 years ( 1993 - 2003) using a locally-validated smoking questionnaire, yielding a representative random sample of 12,271 individuals ( 6,164 men, 6,107 women). Results: In both genders, prevalence of current cigarette smoking was stable over the 11-year period, at about one third of men and one quarter of women, even though smoking began at an earlier age in more recent years. Older men were more likely to be former smokers than older women. Younger men, but not women, tended to quit smoking at an earlier age. Conclusion: This continuous ( 1993 - 2003) risk factor surveillance system, unique in Europe, shows stable prevalence of smoking in both genders. However, sharp contrasts in age-specific prevalence of never and former smoking and of ages at smoking initiation indicate that smoking continues a long-term decline in men but has still not reached its peak in women.

Evaluating the relative contributions of hydroperiod and soil fertility on growth of south Florida mangroves

Low and high water periods create contrasting challenges for trees inhabiting periodically flooded wetlands. Low to moderate flood durations and frequencies may bring nutrient subsidies, while greater hydroperiods can be energetically stressful because of oxygen deficiency. We tested the hypothesis that hydroperiod affects the growth of mangrove seedlings and saplings in a greenhouse experiment by varying flood duration while keeping salinity and soil fertility constant. We measured the growth of mangrove trees along a hydroperiod gradient over a two-year period by tracking fine-scale diameter increment. Greenhouse growth studies indicated that under a full range of annual flood durations (0–8760 h/year), hydroperiod alone exerted a significant influence on growth for one species, Laguncularia racemosa, when flooding was imposed for two growing seasons. Field evaluations, on the other hand, indicated that increased flood duration may provide nutrient subsidies for tree growth. Diameter growth was related curvilinearly to site hydroperiod, including flood duration and frequency, as well as to salinity and soil fertility. An analysis of soil physico-chemical parameters suggests that phosphorus fertility, which was also linked directly to hydroperiod, is likely to influence growth on south Florida mangrove sites. The physical removal of phosphorus by greater flood frequencies from upland sources and/or addition of phosphorus from tidal flooding balanced against increased soil aeration and reduced water deficits may be an extremely important growth determinant for south Florida mangroves.

Three Essays on the Effects of Donor Supplied Contraceptives on Fertility, Usage, and Attitudes

After the 2012 London Summit on Family Planning, there have been major strides in advancing the family planning agenda for low and middle-income countries worldwide. Much of the existing infrastructure and funding for family planning access is in the form of supplying free contraceptives to countries. While the average yearly value of donations since 2000 was over 170 million dollars for contraceptives procured for developing countries, an ongoing debate in the empirical literature is whether increases in contraceptive access and supply drive declines in fertility (UNFPA 2014).

This dissertation explores the fertility and behavioral effects of an increase in contraceptive supply donated to Zambia. Zambia, a high-fertility developing country, receives over 80 percent of its contraceptives from multilateral donors and aid agencies. Most contraceptives are donated and provided to women for free at government clinics (DELIVER 2015). I chose Zambia as a case study to measure the relationship between contraceptive supply and fertility because of two donor-driven events that led to an increase in both the quantity and frequency of contraceptives starting in 2008 (UNFPA 2014). Donations increased because donors and the Zambian government started a systematic method of forecasting contraceptive need on December 2007, and the Mexico City Policy was lifted in January 2009.

In Chapter 1, I investigate whether a large change in quantity and frequency of donated contraceptives affected fertility, using available data on contraceptive donations to Zambia, and birth records from the 2007 and 2013 Demographic and Health Surveys. I use a difference-in-difference framework to estimate the fertility effects of a supply chain improvement program that started in 2011, and was designed to ensure more regularity of contraceptive supply. The increase in total contraceptive supply after the Mexico City Policy was rescinded is associated with a 12 percent reduction in fertility relative to the before period, after controlling for demographic characteristics and time controls. There is evidence that a supply chain improvement program led to significant fertility declines for regions that received the program after the Mexico City Policy was rescinded.

In Chapter 2, I explore the effects of the large increase in donated contraceptives on modern contraceptive uptake. According to the 2007 and 2013 Demographic and Health Surveys, there was a dramatic increase in current use of injectables, implants, and IUDs. Simultaneously, declines occurred in usage of condoms, lactational amenorrhea method (LAM), and traditional methods. In this chapter, I estimate the effect of the increase in donations on uptake, composition of contraceptive usage, and usage of methods based on distance to contraceptive access points. The results show the post-2007 period is associated with an increase in usage of injectables and the pill among women living further away from access points.

In Chapter 3, I explore attitudes towards the contraceptive supply system, and identify areas for improvement, based on qualitative interviews with 14 experts and 61 Zambian users and non-users of contraceptives. The interviews uncover systemic barriers that prevent women from consistently accessing methods, and individual barriers that exacerbate the deficiencies in supply chain procedures. I find that 39 out of 61 women interviewed, both users and non-users, had personal experiences with stock out. The qualitative results suggest that the increase in contraceptives brought to the country after 2007 may have not contributed to as large of a decline in fertility because of bottlenecks in the supply chain, and problems in maintaining stock levels at clinics. I end the chapter with a series of four recommendations for improvements in the supply chain going forward, in light of recent commitments by the Zambian government during the 2012 London Summit on Family Planning.

How did varying levels of intensity of the 2005 Pakistan earthquake differentially affect women’s fertility decisions and children’s health outcomes?

This paper uses a difference in difference model to investigate the impact of a large scale and high mortality 2005 earthquake in Pakistan on women’s fertility decisions and children’s health outcomes. Using a nationally representative, cross sectional DHS data from 2006 and geographical data from USGS, this paper investigates how variation in earthquake intensity levels can differentially impact total fertility for women and the likelihood of children suffering from diseases such as diarrhea, Acute Respiratory Infections (ARI) and fever. The post-earthquake results demonstrate a statistically significant increase in total fertility for areas closer to the epicenter of the earthquake, within a 100km radius of the rupture surface and at higher altitudes. Similarly, for children who were in-utero at the time of the earthquake, the probability of having early symptoms of ARI or fever was much smaller in lower earthquake intensity zones compared to the highest intensity zone.

A comparison of individual cow versus group concentrate allocation strategies on dry matter intake, milk production, tissue changes, and fertility of Holstein-Friesian cows offered a grass silage diet

A diverse range of concentrate allocation strategies are adopted on dairy farms. The objectives of this study were to examine the effects on cow performance [dry matter (DM) intake (DMI), milk yield and composition, body tissue changes, and fertility] of adopting 2 contrasting concentrate allocation strategies over the first 140 d of lactation. Seventy-seven Holstein-Friesian dairy cows were allocated to 1 of 2 concentrate allocation strategies at calving, namely group or individual cow. Cows on the group strategy were offered a mixed ration comprising grass silage and concentrates in a 50:50 ratio on a DM basis. Cows on the individual cow strategy were offered a basal mixed ration comprising grass silage and concentrates (the latter included in the mix to achieve a mean intake of 6 kg/cow per day), which was formulated to meet the cow’s energy requirements for maintenance plus 24 kg of milk/cow per day. Additional concentrates were offered via an out-of-parlor feeding system, with the amount offered adjusted weekly based on each individual cow’s milk yield during the previous week. In addition, all cows received a small quantity of straw in the mixed ration part of the diet (approximately 0.3 kg/cow per day), plus 0.5 kg of concentrate twice daily in the milking parlor. Mean concentrate intakes over the study period were similar with each of the 2 allocation strategies (11.5 and 11.7 kg of DM/cow per day for group and individual cow, respectively), although the pattern of intake with each treatment differed over time. Concentrate allocation strategy had no effect on either milk yield (39.3 and 38.0 kg/d for group and individual cow, respectively), milk composition, or milk constituent yield. The milk yield response curves with each treatment were largely aligned with the concentrate DMI curves. Cows on the individual cow treatment had a greater range of concentrate DMI and milk yields than those on the group treatment. With the exception of a tendency for cows on the individual cow treatment to lose more body weight to nadir than cows on the group treatment, concentrate allocation strategy had little effect on either body weight or body condition score over the experimental period. Cows on the individual cow treatment had a higher pregnancy rate to first and second service and tended to have a higher 100-d in calf rate than cows on the group treatment. This study demonstrates that concentrate allocation strategy had little effect on overall production performance.

Age-Specific Fertility Dynamics: Sub-Saharan African Fertility in a Global Context

Thesis (Ph.D.)--University of Washington, 2016-08

Cancer and fertility preservation: International recommendations from an expert meeting

In the last years, thanks to the improvement in the prognosis of cancer patients, a growing attention has been given to the fertility issues. International guidelines on fertility preservation in cancer patients recommend that physicians discuss, as early as possible, with all patients of reproductive age their risk of infertility from the disease and/or treatment and their interest in having children after cancer, and help with informed fertility preservation decisions. As recommended by the American Society of Clinical Oncology and the European Society for Medical Oncology, sperm cryopreservation and embryo/oocyte cryopreservation are standard strategies for fertility preservations in male and female patients, respectively; other strategies (e.g. pharmacological protection of the gonads and gonadal tissue cryopreservation) are considered experimental techniques. However, since then, new data have become available, and several issues in this field are still controversial and should be addressed by both patients and their treating physicians. In April 2015, physicians with expertise in the field of fertility preservation in cancer patients from several European countries were invited in Genova (Italy) to participate in a workshop on the topic of "cancer and fertility preservation". A total of ten controversial issues were discussed at the conference. Experts were asked to present an up-to-date review of the literature published on these topics and the presentation of own unpublished data was encouraged. On the basis of the data presented, as well as the expertise of the invited speakers, a total of ten recommendations were discussed and prepared with the aim to help physicians in counseling their young patients interested in fertility preservation. Although there is a great interest in this field, due to the lack of large prospective cohort studies and randomized trials on these topics, the level of evidence is not higher than 3 for most of the recommendations highlighting the need of further research efforts in many areas of this field. The participation to the ongoing registries and prospective studies is crucial to acquire more robust information in order to provide evidence-based recommendations.