Luck and the control theory of knowledge

The dissertation accomplishes two aims: 1) to diagnose what prevents true beliefs from being knowledge; 2) to give an positive account of knowledge. Concerning the first aim, it offers an account of the notion of luck. It defends the view that luck is a form of risk and distinguishes two types of luck. Then, it applies the account to the problem of epistemic luck and distinguishes, accordingly, two types of epistemic luck. It is argued that these two types of epistemic luck explain the whole range of cases of not-known true belief. Concerning the second aim, the dissertation advances an account of knowledge in terms of the notion of cognitive control that deals with the two forms of epistemic luck distinguished.

Social Dynamics in Paper Wasps: The case of nest-drifting in Polistes canadensis

Le passage de la vie solitaire à la vie sociale représente une des principales transitions évolutives. La socialité a évolué au sein de plusieurs taxons du règne animal et notamment chez les insectes sociaux qui ont atteint son niveau le plus élevé : l'eusocialité. Les colonies d'insectes sociaux se composent d'une reine, qui monopolise la reproduction, et d'ouvrières, non-reproductrices ou parfois stériles, qui aident à élever la descendance de la reine. Selon la théorie de la sélection de parentèle, les ouvrières augmentent leur fitness (succès reproducteur) non pas à travers leur propre progéniture, mais en aidant des individus apparentés (leur reine) à produire davantage de descendants. Cette théorie prédit ainsi que les ouvrières ont un intérêt à rester fidèles à leur nid natal. Toutefois, chez la guêpe tropicale Polistes canadensis, de nombreuse ouvrières visitent d'autres nids que leur nid natal : un phénomène appelé « dérive des ouvrières ». Le but de ce doctorat est ainsi de mieux comprendre les mécanismes impliqués dans ce comportement particulier des ouvrières ainsi que ces implications pour la théorie de la sélection de parentèle. Nous avons examiné le comportement de dérive des ouvrières à travers une étude des dynamiques sociales chez la guêpe tropicale P. canadensis. Mes résultats montrent que les populations de P. canadensis se composent en différentes agrégations de nids. Malgré de précédentes suggestions, on n'observe qu'une faible viscosité génétique au sein des populations de P. canadensis étudiées. On retrouve toutefois un degré d'apparentement entre nids d'une même agrégation. Ceci suggère que les ouvrières dériveuses sont susceptibles de bénéficier de fitness indirect en aidant les nids proches géographiquement. De plus, ces échanges d'ouvrières ne semblent pas accidentels puisque l'on constate des variations de taux de dérive et puisque les déplacements observés entre nids persistent sur plusieurs périodes de temps. La charge de travail, qui correspond aux différences d'effort de fourragement entre nid visités et natals, est décrite dans notre étude comme potentiel facteur expliquant le comportement de dérive des ouvrières chez P. canadensis. Nos expériences de retrait d'ouvrières et de couvain ont révélées que les dériveuses ne semblent pas répondre aux changements de besoins en aide des nids visités. Les ouvrières dériveuses biaisent leur effort en aidant leur propre nid, par lequel elles bénéficient le plus en termes de fitness indirect, avant de se consacrer à tout autre nid. Dans l'ensemble, ces résultats sur la dérive des ouvrières chez P. canadensis sont cohérents et suggèrent que ce comportement est une importante stratégie de reproduction alternative chez cette espèce qui contribue à la fitness indirecte de ces ouvrières non-reproductrices. De plus, ce doctorat apporte des informations sur la structure génétique des populations de guêpes Polistes et décrit le rôle des ouvrières inactives. Celles-ci semblent servir de réserve en ouvrières apportant du support à la colonie dans l'éventualité d'une perte d'individus. Plus généralement, ce travail met l'accent sur l'organisation complexe et l'adaptabilité des individus dans les sociétés d'insectes. - One major transition in evolution is the shift from solitary to social life. Sociality has evolved in a few taxa of the animal kingdom, most notably in the social insects which have achieved the highest level of sociality: eusociality. Colonies of social insects are formed by a reproductive queen, and many non-reproductive or sterile workers who help raise their mother queen's offspring. Kin selection theory explains worker behaviour in terms of the indirect fitness they gain from raising non-offspring kin. It therefore predicts that workers should stay faithful to their natal nests, to which they are the more related. However, in the tropical paper wasps Polistes canadensis, high levels of nest-drifting, whereby workers spend time on other neighbouring nests, has been reported. This PhD aimed at understanding the mechanisms involved in this peculiar behaviour as well as its implications for kin selection theory. I examined nest-drifting through the study of the social dynamics of the tropical paper wasp P. canadensis. My results showed that populations of this species of paper wasps are composed of different aggregations of nests. The studied populations showed little limited dispersal (viscosity), despite previous suggestion, but nests within these aggregations were more related to each other than nests outside of aggregations. This suggested that drifters may benefit from indirect fitness when helping on neighbouring nests. Drifting was unlikely to be accidental since we found drifting patterns at various rates and consistently over several time periods during monitoring. Workload (differences in colony-level foraging effort) was also a potential factor explaining nest-drifting in P. canadensis. Worker and brood removal experiments revealed that drifters do not respond to any changes in the need for help in the non-natal nests they visit. Drifters thus bias their help in their natal nests, from which they may benefit the most in terms of indirect fitness, before investing in others. Altogether, these results on nest-drifting in P. canadensis are consistent and suggest that nest-drifting is an important alternative reproductive strategy, contributing to the indirect fitness benefits gained by non-reproductive wasps. Additionally, this PhD provides information on the genetic structure of paper wasps' populations and demonstrates the role of inactive or lazy wasps as a "reserve worker force", which provides resilience to the colony in the event of worker mortality. More generally, this work further highlights the complex organization and adaptability of individuals in insect societies.

Monitoring procedures in environmental geochemistry and compositional data analysis theory

First discussion on compositional data analysis is attributable to Karl Pearson, in 1897. However, notwithstanding the recent developments on algebraic structure of the simplex, more than twenty years after Aitchison’s idea of log-transformations of closed data, scientific literature is again full of statistical treatments of this type of data by using traditional methodologies. This is particularly true in environmental geochemistry where besides the problem of the closure, the spatial structure (dependence) of the data have to be considered. In this work we propose the use of log-contrast values, obtained by asimplicial principal component analysis, as LQGLFDWRUV of given environmental conditions. The investigation of the log-constrast frequency distributions allows pointing out the statistical laws able togenerate the values and to govern their variability. The changes, if compared, for example, with the mean values of the random variables assumed as models, or other reference parameters, allow definingmonitors to be used to assess the extent of possible environmental contamination. Case study on running and ground waters from Chiavenna Valley (Northern Italy) by using Na+, K+, Ca2+, Mg2+, HCO3-, SO4 2- and Cl- concentrations will be illustrated

Advances in Sequence Analysis: Theory, Methods, Applications

This book gives a general view of sequence analysis, the statistical study of successions of states or events. It includes innovative contributions on life course studies, transitions into and out of employment, contemporaneous and historical careers, and political trajectories. The approach presented in this book is now central to the life-course perspective and the study of social processes more generally. This volume promotes the dialogue between approaches to sequence analysis that developed separately, within traditions contrasted in space and disciplines. It includes the latest developments in sequential concepts, coding, atypical datasets and time patterns, optimal matching and alternative algorithms, survey optimization, and visualization. Field studies include original sequential material related to parenting in 19th-century Belgium, higher education and work in Finland and Italy, family formation before and after German reunification, French Jews persecuted in occupied France, long-term trends in electoral participation, and regime democratization. Overall the book reassesses the classical uses of sequences and it promotes new ways of collecting, formatting, representing and processing them. The introduction provides basic sequential concepts and tools, as well as a history of the method. Chapters are presented in a way that is both accessible to the beginner and informative to the expert.

War Signals: A Theory of Trade, Trust and Conflict

We construct a dynamic theory of civil conflict hinging on inter-ethnic trust and trade. The model economy is inhabitated by two ethnic groups. Inter-ethnic trade requires imperfectly observed bilateral investments and one group has to form beliefs on the average propensity to trade of the other group. Since conflict disrupts trade, the onset of a conflict signals that the aggressor has a low propensity to trade. Agents observe the history of conflicts and update their beliefs over time, transmitting them to the next generation. The theory bears a set of testable predictions. First, war is a stochastic process whose frequency depends on the state of endogenous beliefs. Second, the probability of future conflicts increases after each conflict episode. Third, "accidental" conflicts that do not reflect economic fundamentals can lead to a permanent breakdown of trust, plunging a society into a vicious cycle of recurrent conflicts (a war trap). The incidence of conflict can be reduced by policies abating cultural barriers, fostering inter-ethnic trade and human capital, and shifting beliefs. Coercive peace policies such as peacekeeping forces or externally imposed regime changes have instead no persistent effects.

From MuSIASEM theory to practice: report and reflections from field research in Kampot province, Cambodia

This document contains a report and summary of the field research activities in a rural community of rice farmers in Kampot province, Cambodia in 2011, which I conducted within the context of my PhD research at ICTA-UAB (Institute of Environmental Science and Technology, Autonomous University of Barcelona, Spain). The purpose of the field research was to gather data for a MuSIASEM analysis (Multi-Scale Integrated Analysis of Societal and Ecosystem Metabolism) at the village and household level, in order to analyze the multidimensional challenges that small farmers may face nowadays within the context of global rural change and declining access to land. While the literature on MuSIASEM offers a great variety of theoretical explanations and practical applications, there is little information available for students regarding the practical steps required for doing a MuSIASEM analysis at the local level. Within this context, this report offers not only a documentation of the field research design and data collection methods, but further provides a general overview on some organizational and preparative aspects, including some personal reflections, that one may face when preparing and conducting field research for MuSIASEM analysis. In summary, this document thus serves three objectives: (i) to assure methodological transparency for the future work, based on the collected data during field research, (ii) to share my personal experience on the preparative and practical steps required for field research and data collection for a MuSIASEM analysis at the local level, and (iii) to make available for the further interested reader some more detailed background information on the case study village.

Time-Delayed Theory of the Neolithic Transition in Europe

The classical wave-of-advance model of the neolithic transition (i.e., the shift from hunter-gatherer to agricultural economies) is based on Fisher's reaction-diffusion equation. Here we present an extension of Einstein's approach to Fickian diffusion, incorporating reaction terms. On this basis we show that second-order terms in the reaction-diffusion equation, which have been neglected up to now, are not in fact negligible but can lead to important corrections. The resulting time-delayed model agrees quite well with observations

Nuclear magnetic resonance chemical shifts with the statistical average of orbital-dependent model potentials in Kohn-Sham density functional theory

The performance of the SAOP potential for the calculation of NMR chemical shifts was evaluated. SAOP results show considerable improvement with respect to previous potentials, like VWN or BP86, at least for the carbon, nitrogen, oxygen, and fluorine chemical shifts. Furthermore, a few NMR calculations carried out on third period atoms (S, P, and Cl) improved when using the SAOP potential

Second-order Møller-Plesset perturbation theory without basis set superposition error : II : open-shell systems

The basis set superposition error-free second-order MØller-Plesset perturbation theory of intermolecular interactions was studied. The difficulties of the counterpoise (CP) correction in open-shell systems were also discussed. The calculations were performed by a program which was used for testing the new variants of the theory. It was shown that the CP correction for the diabatic surfaces should be preferred to the adiabatic ones

Exploring chromium (VI) dioxodihalides chemistry: is density functional theory the most suitable tool?

A comparative systematic study of the CrO2F2 compound has been performed using different conventional ab initio methodologies and density functional procedures. Two points have been analyzed: first, the accuracy of results yielded by each method under study, and second, the computational cost required to reach such results. Weighing up both aspects, density functional theory has been found to be more appropriate than the Hartree-Fock (HF) and the analyzed post-HF methods. Hence, the structural characterization and spectroscopic elucidation of the full CrO2X2 series (X=F,Cl,Br,I) has been done at this level of theory. Emphasis has been given to the unknown CrO2I2 species, and specially to the UV/visible spectra of all four compounds. Furthermore, a topological analysis in terms of charge density distributions has revealed why the valence shell electron pair repulsion model fails in predicting the molecular shape of such CrO2X2 complexes

One- and two-center physical space partitioning of the energy in the density functional theory

A conceptually new approach is introduced for the decomposition of the molecular energy calculated at the density functional theory level of theory into sum of one- and two-atomic energy components, and is realized in the "fuzzy atoms" framework. (Fuzzy atoms mean that the three-dimensional physical space is divided into atomic regions having no sharp boundaries but exhibiting a continuous transition from one to another.) The new scheme uses the new concept of "bond order density" to calculate the diatomic exchange energy components and gives them unexpectedly close to the values calculated by the exact (Hartree-Fock) exchange for the same Kohn-Sham orbitals