Asset Price Instability and Policy Responses: The Legacy of Liberalization

The problem of asset price bubbles, and more generally of instability in the financial system, has been a matter of concern since the 1980s but has only recently moved to the center of the macroeconomic policy debate. The main concern with bubbles arises when they burst, imposing losses on investors holding the bubble assets and potentially on the financial institutions that have extended credit to them. Asset price volatility is an inevitable consequence of financial market liberalization and, in extreme cases, generates asset price bubbles, the bursting of which can impose substantial economic and social costs. Policy responses within the existing liberalized financial system face daunting levels of uncertainty and risk. Given the pattern of increasing asset market volatility over recent decades and the policy issues highlighted in this paper, the future looks uncertain. Another significant cycle of asset price movements, especially in one of the major economies, could see a fundamental revision of thinking about the costs and benefits of liberalized financial systems.

Essays on Development Policy and the Political Economy of Conflict

Electoral Rules and Leader Selection: Experimental Evidence from Ugandan Community Groups. Despite a large body of work documenting how electoral systems affect policy outcomes, less is known about their impact on leader selection. We study this by comparing two types of participatory decision making in Ugandan community groups: (i) vote by secret ballot and (ii) open discussion with consensus. Random assignment allows us to estimate the causal impact of the rules on leader types and social service delivery. Vote groups are found to elect leaders more similar to the average member while discussion group leaders are positively selected on socio-economic characteristics. Further, dropout rates are significantly higher in discussion groups, particularly for poorer members. After 3.5 years, vote groups are larger in size and their members save less and get smaller loans. We conclude that the secret ballot vote creates more inclusive groups while open discussion groups favor the already economically successful. Preparing for Genocide: Community Meetings in Rwanda. How do political elites prepare the civilian population for participation in violent conflict? We empirically investigate this question using data from the Rwandan Genocide in 1994. Every Saturday before 1994, Rwandan villagers had to meet to work on community infrastructure. The practice was highly politicized and, according to anecdotal evidence, regularly used by the political elites for spreading propaganda in the years before the genocide. This paper presents the first quantitative evidence of this abuse of the community meetings. To establish causality, we exploit cross-sectional variation in meeting intensity induced by exogenous weather fluctuations. We find that an additional rainy Saturday resulted in a five percent lower civilian participation rate in genocide violence. Selection into Borrowing: Survey Evidence from Uganda. In this paper, I study how changes to the standard credit contract affect loan demand and selection into borrowing, using a representative sample of urban micro enterprises, most with no borrowing experience. Hypothetical loan demand questions are used to test whether firm owners respond to changes in loans' contractual terms and whether take-up varies by firms' risk type and other firm owner characteristics. The results indicate that contracts with lower interest rates and less stringent collateral requirements attract less risky borrowers, suggesting that there is scope for improvement of standard financial contract terms. Credit Contract Structure and Firm Growth: Evidence from a Randomized Control Trial. We study the effects of credit contract structure on firm outcomes among small and medium sized firms. A randomized control trial was carried out to distinguish between some of the key constraints to efficient credit use connected to the firms' business environment and production function, namely (i) backloaded returns (ii) uncertain returns and (iii) indivisible fixed costs. Each firm was followed for the 1-year loan cycle. We describe the experiment and present preliminary results from the first 754 out of 2,340 firms to have completed the loan cycle. Firms offered a grace period have higher profits and higher household income than firms receiving a rebate later on as well as the control group. They also increased the number of paid employees  and reduced the number of unpaid employees, an effect also found among firms that received a cash subsidy at the beginning of the loan cycle. We discuss potential mechanisms behind these effects.

Mixing the grant cocktail:towards an understanding of the outcomes of financial support to small firms

One of the key policy objectives of government at national and regional level, is to overcome the constraints preventing local industry achieving greater competitiveness in the international market-place. This paper examines the impact of grant assistance to Northern Ireland small firms delivered over the period 1994 ^ 97 by the former Local Enterprise Development Unit through its Growth Business Support Programme (GBSP). Previous work by the authors showed that there was some tentative evidence to suggest a link between employment growth and grant aid provided to very small firms (fewer than 10 employees) assisted under the GBSP. The central objective of the empirical work reported in this paper is to extend the previous analysis by understanding the extent to which the value of financial assistance influences growth (employment, turnover, and productivity measures) and if differential impacts arise depending on the nature and timing (lag structures) of the grant assistance.

The use of counterfactual scenarios as a means to assess policy deadweight:an Irish case study

The evaluation of industrial policy interventions has attracted increasing policy and academic attention in recent years. Despite the widespread consensus regarding the need for evaluation, the issue of how to evaluate, and the associated methodological considerations, continue to be issues of considerable debate. The authors develop an approach to estimate the net additionality of financial assistance from Enterprise Ireland to indigenously owned firms in Ireland for the period 2000 to 2002. With a sample of Enterprise Ireland assisted firms, an innovative, self-assessment, in-depth, face-to-face, interview methodology was adopted. The authors also explore a way of incorporating the indirect benefits of assistance into derived deadweight estimate issue which is seldom discussed in the context of deadweight estimates. They conclude by reflecting on the key methodological lessons learned from the evaluation process, and highlight some pertinent evaluation issues which should form the focus of much future discussion in this field of research.

A conceptual framework of accounting policy choice under SSAP 20

Purpose - To provide a framework of accounting policy choice associated with the timing of adoption of the UK Statement of Standard Accounting Practice (SSAP) No. 20, "Foreign Currency Translation". The conceptual framework describes the accounting policy choices that firms face in a setting that is influenced by: their financial characteristics; the flexible foreign exchange rates; and the stock market response to accounting decisions. Design/methodology/approach - Following the positive accounting theory context, this paper puts into a framework the motives and choices of UK firms with regard to the adoption or deferment of the adoption of SSAP 20. The paper utilises the theoretical and empirical findings of previous studies to form and substantiate the conceptual framework. Given the UK foreign exchange setting, the framework identifies the initial stage: lack of regulation and flexibility in financial reporting; the intermediate stage: accounting policy choice; and the final stage: accounting choice and policy review. Findings - There are situations where accounting regulation contrasts with the needs and business objectives of firms and vice-versa. Thus, firms may delay the adoption up to the point where the increase in political costs can just be tolerated. Overall, the study infers that firms might have chosen to defer the adoption of SSAP 20 until they reach a certain corporate goal, or the adverse impact (if any) of the accounting change on firms' financial numbers is minimal. Thus, the determination of the timing of the adoption is a matter which is subject to the objectives of the managers in association with the market and economic conditions. The paper suggests that the flexibility in financial reporting, which may enhance the scope for income-smoothing, can be mitigated by the appropriate standardisation of accounting practice. Research limitations/implications - First, the study encompassed a period when firms and investors were less sophisticated users of financial information. Second, it is difficult to ascertain the decisions that firms would have taken, had the pound appreciated over the period of adoption and had the firms incurred translation losses rather than translation gains. Originality/value - This paper is useful to accounting standards setters, professional accountants, academics and investors. The study can give the accounting standard-setting bodies useful information when they prepare a change in the accounting regulation or set an appropriate date for the implementation of an accounting standard. The paper provides significant insight about the behaviour of firms and the associated impacts of financial markets and regulation on the decision-making process of firms. The framework aims to assist the market and other authorities to reduce information asymmetry and to reinforce the efficiency of the market. © Emerald Group Publishing Limited.

Political parties and public policy in the German Länder:when parties matter

When Parties Matter looks at the extent to which political parties can make a difference to public policy, focusing on the regional level in Germany. Politicians of the left and the right sometimes have radically different views, but inevitably the combined forces of legal and financial constraints, bureaucracy, public expectations and the 'weight of history' restrict their ability to translate political disagreement into policy change. Giving a detailed examination of education policy, childcare and family policy, and labour market policy in three German regions between 1999 and 2006, this book provides insights into what politicians can and cannot achieve, in particular at the level below the nation-state.

Primary production, financial constraints and economic instability:Zambia since independence.

A systematic analysis is presented of the economic consequences of the abnormally high concentration of Zambia's exports on a commodity whose price is exceptionally unstable. Zambian macro-economic variables in the post-independence years are extensively documented, showing acute instability and decline, particularly after the energy price revolution and the collapse of copper prices. The relevance of stabilization policies designed to correct short-term disequilibrium is questioned. It is, therefore, a pathological case study of externally induced economic instability, complementing other studies in this area which use cross-country analysis of a few selected variables. After a survey of theory and issues pertaining to development, finance and stabilization, the emergence of domestic and foreign financial constraints on the Zambian economy is described. The world copper industry is surveyed and an examination of commodity and world trade prices concludes that copper showed the highest degree of price instability. Specific aspects of Zambia's economy identified for detailed analysis include: its unprofitable mining industry, external payments disequilibrium, a constrained government budget, potentially inflationary monetary growth, and external indebtedness. International comparisons are used extensively, but major copper exporters are subjected to closer scrutiny. An appraisal of policy options concludes the study.

Financial liberalization and stock market volatility:the case of Indonesia

This article examines the relationship between financial liberalization and stock market volatility in Indonesia. By looking at the time series properties of the Jakarta Composite Index (JCI) we identify breaks in stock market volatility which coincide with the timing of major policy events. Our main findings are (i) a significant decrease in volatility after the 'official' opening of the stock market to foreign participation; (ii) a significant increase in volatility in the year before market opening following reforms that eased entry requirements and the issuance of brokerage licenses and (iii) a significant increase in volatility at the time of the Asian crisis followed by a significant decrease in the second and sixth years after the crisis.

From recession to renewal:the impact of the financial crisis on public services and local government

Book review of From Recession to Renewal: The Impact of the Financial Crisis on Public Services and Local Government, Joanna Richardson (Ed). Bristol, Policy Press, 2010, ISBN 9781847426994

The global audit profession and the international financial architecture:understanding regulatory relationships at a time of financial crisis

This paper explores how regulatory relationships in the global audit arena are being affected by the current financial crisis. Key policy initiatives and debates are analyzed, along with institutional interactions, in particular between the International Federation of Accountants (IFAC), international regulators and the large audit firms. The events are placed in the context of the new international financial architecture which has developed over the last decade. Using the illustrative lens of bank auditing, questions are asked of the nature and status of audit practice and the regulatory arrangements governing such practice. The paper shows the active nature of the regulatory responses to the crisis and the shifting and competing influences among key regulatory and professional participants in the global audit arena. Emphasis is placed on the need for audit researchers to be sensitive to the developing global financial architecture, and its potential implications for the study of audit practice in different national and international contexts.

Reinforcing the security of corporate information resources:a critical review of the role of the acceptable use policy

Increasingly users are seen as the weak link in the chain, when it comes to the security of corporate information. Should the users of computer systems act in any inappropriate or insecure manner, then they may put their employers in danger of financial losses, information degradation or litigation, and themselves in danger of dismissal or prosecution. This is a particularly important concern for knowledge-intensive organisations, such as universities, as the effective conduct of their core teaching and research activities is becoming ever more reliant on the availability, integrity and accuracy of computer-based information resources. One increasingly important mechanism for reducing the occurrence of inappropriate behaviours, and in so doing, protecting corporate information, is through the formulation and application of a formal ‘acceptable use policy (AUP). Whilst the AUP has attracted some academic interest, it has tended to be prescriptive and overly focussed on the role of the Internet, and there is relatively little empirical material that explicitly addresses the purpose, positioning or content of real acceptable use policies. The broad aim of the study, reported in this paper, is to fill this gap in the literature by critically examining the structure and composition of a sample of authentic policies – taken from the higher education sector – rather than simply making general prescriptions about what they ought to contain. There are two important conclusions to be drawn from this study: (1) the primary role of the AUP appears to be as a mechanism for dealing with unacceptable behaviour, rather than proactively promoting desirable and effective security behaviours, and (2) the wide variation found in the coverage and positioning of the reviewed policies is unlikely to be fostering a coherent approach to security management, across the higher education sector.