The Lateral Trigger Probability function for the Ultra-High Energy Cosmic Ray showers detected by the Pierre Auger Observatory

In this paper we introduce the concept of Lateral Trigger Probability (LTP) function, i.e., the probability for an Extensive Air Shower (EAS) to trigger an individual detector of a ground based array as a function of distance to the shower axis, taking into account energy, mass and direction of the primary cosmic ray. We apply this concept to the surface array of the Pierre Auger Observatory consisting of a 1.5 km spaced grid of about 1600 water Cherenkov stations. Using Monte Carlo simulations of ultra-high energy showers the LTP functions are derived for energies in the range between 10(17) and 10(19) eV and zenith angles up to 65 degrees. A parametrization combining a step function with an exponential is found to reproduce them very well in the considered range of energies and zenith angles. The LTP functions can also be obtained from data using events simultaneously observed by the fluorescence and the surface detector of the Pierre Auger Observatory (hybrid events). We validate the Monte Carlo results showing how LTP functions from data are in good agreement with simulations.

Avoiding Extinction: An Evaluation of Short-Term Recovery Recommendations for the Endangered Rio Grande Silvery Minnow

The endangered Rio Grande silvery minnow (Hybognathus amarus; RGSM) is nearing extinction and requires immediate recovery actions. In a draft report to the Middle Rio Grande Program, a Program Advisory Panel (PAP) recommended 34 short-term recovery measures to be implemented within the next five years, and 21 long-term recovery actions. However, these recommendations need further analysis to determine if and how the actions could be implemented. This project evaluated short-term recommendations provided by the PAP to identify the most effective and rank the relative importance of the actions. These recommendations were divided into 7 recovery categories: population augmentation (5 recommendations); hydrologic regimen (4 recommendations); physical habitat (3 recommendations); biological component of habitat (2 recommendations); population monitoring (6 recommendations); monitoring, analysis, and modeling (12 recommendations); and information and planning (2 recommendations). Each recommendation was evaluated for its potential to produce anticipated recovery progress for the RGSM based on assessments of the degree of feasibility, cost effectiveness, and associated potential consequences if fully implemented. In addition, other alternatives in a range of options were also considered where applicable. In each case, recommendations were evaluated from on-site visits, interviews with researchers and resource managers, and literature review. Based on the research findings, three major groupings of the recovery categories were identified: natural aspects of recovery, program aspects of recovery, and emergency measures. At least one recovery category within each major grouping was considered important by the respondents, which indicates that each grouping is of high importance in relation to the situation at hand. However, actions within each grouping have varying priorities given constraints on available resources, time, and budget. An integrated approach that accounts for the complexity of the river system and the species itself was considered the best approach to avoid extinction while ensuring long-term sustainability. Results of these analyses were provided directly to the PAP for their review, and it is anticipated that project results could advance implementation of the most appropriate immediate recovery actions needed to prevent extinction of the RGSM.

Extinction trends of threatened invertebrates in peninsular Spain

Using information from two recently published atlases of threatened invertebrate species in peninsular Spain, we examined the climatic, land use and geographic characteristics of the 100 km2 UTM cells with most likelihood of suffering extinctions (extinction cells), as well as the attributes of the species prone to population extinctions. Extinction cells have had significantly (1) lower precipitation values, (2) higher temperatures, (3) higher percentages of anthropic land uses or (4) higher rates of anthropization during the last 20 years than the remaining cells. Nevertheless, probable extinctions may occur under a wide range of climatic and anthropization change rates and these variables can only explain a low proportion (~5 %) of variability in the occurrence or number of extinction cells. Aquatic species seem to suffer higher local extinction rates than terrestrial species. Interestingly, many invertebrate species with approximately 25 or less occurrence cells are on a clear trajectory towards extinction. These results outline the difficulties and uncertainties in relating probable population extinctions with climatic and land use changes in the case of invertebrate data. However, they also suggest that a third of the considered Spanish threatened species could have lost some of their populations, and that current conservation efforts are insufficient to reverse this tendency.

Evolution of the last koninckinids (Athyridida, Koninckinidae), a precursor signal of the early Toarcian mass extinction event in the Western Tethys

Koninckinids are a suitable group to shed light on the biotic crisis suffered by brachiopod fauna in the Early Jurassic. Koninckinid fauna recorded in the late Pliensbachian–early Toarcian from the easternmost Subbetic basin is analyzed and identified as a precursor signal for one of the most conspicuous mass extinction events of the Phylum Brachiopoda, a multi-phased interval with episodes of changing environmental conditions, whose onset can be detected from the Elisa–Mirabile subzones up to the early Toarcian extinction boundary in the lowermost Serpentinum Zone (T-OAE). The koninckinid fauna had a previously well-established migration pattern from the intra-Tethyan to the NW-European basins but a first phase with a progressive warming episode in the Pliensbachian–Toarcian transition triggered a koninckinid fauna exodus from the eastern/central Tethys toward the westernmost Mediterranean margins. A second stage shows an adaptive response to more adverse conditions in the westernmost Tethyan margins and finally, an escape and extinction phase is detected in the Atlantic areas from the mid-Polymorphum Zone onwards up to their global extinction in the lowermost Serpentinum Zone. This migration pattern is independent of the paleogeographic bioprovinciality and is unrelated to a facies-controlled pattern. The anoxic/suboxic environmental conditions should only be considered as a minor factor of partial control since well-oxygenated habitats are noted in the intra-Tethyan basins and this factor is noticeable only in the second westward migratory stage (with dwarf taxa and oligotypical assemblages). The analysis of cold-seep proxies in the Subbetic deposits suggests a radiation that is independent of methane releases in the Subbetic basin.

An adaptive algorithm for clustering cumulative probability distribution functions using the Kolmogorov–Smirnov two-sample test

This paper proposes an adaptive algorithm for clustering cumulative probability distribution functions (c.p.d.f.) of a continuous random variable, observed in different populations, into the minimum homogeneous clusters, making no parametric assumptions about the c.p.d.f.’s. The distance function for clustering c.p.d.f.’s that is proposed is based on the Kolmogorov–Smirnov two sample statistic. This test is able to detect differences in position, dispersion or shape of the c.p.d.f.’s. In our context, this statistic allows us to cluster the recorded data with a homogeneity criterion based on the whole distribution of each data set, and to decide whether it is necessary to add more clusters or not. In this sense, the proposed algorithm is adaptive as it automatically increases the number of clusters only as necessary; therefore, there is no need to fix in advance the number of clusters. The output of the algorithm are the common c.p.d.f. of all observed data in the cluster (the centroid) and, for each cluster, the Kolmogorov–Smirnov statistic between the centroid and the most distant c.p.d.f. The proposed algorithm has been used for a large data set of solar global irradiation spectra distributions. The results obtained enable to reduce all the information of more than 270,000 c.p.d.f.’s in only 6 different clusters that correspond to 6 different c.p.d.f.’s.

Cartels: the Probability of Getting Caught in the European Union. Bruges European Economic Research (BEER) Papers 12/March 2008

In 1991, Bryant and Eckard estimated the annual probability that a cartel would be detected by the US Federal authorities, conditional on being detected, to be at most between 13 % and 17 %. 15 years later, we estimated the same probability over a European sample and we found an annual probability that falls between 12.9 % and 13.3 %. We also develop a detection model to clarify this probability. Our estimate is based on detection durations, calculated from data reported for all the cartels convicted by the European Commission from 1969 to the present date, and a statistical birth and death process model describing the onset and detection of cartels.

Considering DPRK [North Korea] Regime Collapse: Its Probability and Possible Geopolitical and Security Consequences. Security Policy Brief No. 66, August 2015

Both the EU and its member states are in a period of rethinking security strategy to adapt to contemporary challenges both in the European region and beyond, including Northeast Asia. In this Security Policy Brief, Mason Richey discusses what difficulties and risks a North Korean regime collapse would pose, the likelihood that it will occur sooner rather than later, and how Europe will be affected by such a scenario.

RRREG: Stata module to estimate linear probability model for randomized response data

rrreg fits a linear probability model for randomized response data