Forecasting tourism demand using consumer expectations

Abstract Purpose- There is a lack of studies on tourism demand forecasting that use non-linear models. The aim of this paper is to introduce consumer expectations in time-series models in order to analyse their usefulness to forecast tourism demand. Design/methodology/approach- The paper focuses on forecasting tourism demand in Catalonia for the four main visitor markets (France, the UK, Germany and Italy) combining qualitative information with quantitative models: autoregressive (AR), autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA), self-exciting threshold autoregressions (SETAR) and Markov switching regime (MKTAR) models. The forecasting performance of the different models is evaluated for different time horizons (one, two, three, six and 12 months). Findings- Although some differences are found between the results obtained for the different countries, when comparing the forecasting accuracy of the different techniques, ARIMA and Markov switching regime models outperform the rest of the models. In all cases, forecasts of arrivals show lower root mean square errors (RMSE) than forecasts of overnight stays. It is found that models with consumer expectations do not outperform benchmark models. These results are extensive to all time horizons analysed. Research limitations/implications- This study encourages the use of qualitative information and more advanced econometric techniques in order to improve tourism demand forecasting. Originality/value- This is the first study on tourism demand focusing specifically on Catalonia. To date, there have been no studies on tourism demand forecasting that use non-linear models such as self-exciting threshold autoregressions (SETAR) and Markov switching regime (MKTAR) models. This paper fills this gap and analyses forecasting performance at a regional level. Keywords Tourism, Forecasting, Consumers, Spain, Demand management Paper type Research paper

Kohinan poisto spektrikuvista pehmeillä morfologisilla suodattimilla

Tämän diplomityön tavoitteena oli tutkia kohinan poistoa spektrikuvista käyttäen pehmeitä morfologisia suodattimia. Työssä painotettiin impulssimaisen kohinan suodattamista. Suodattimien toimintaa arvioitiin numeerisesti keskimääräisen itseisarvovirheen, neliövirheen sekä signaali-kohinasuhteen avulla ja visuaalisesti tarkastelemalla suodatettuja kuvia sekä niiden yksittäisiä spektritasoja. Käytettyjä suodatusmenetelmiä olivat suodatus kuvapisteittäin spektrin suunnassa, suodatus koko spektrissä sekä kuutiomenetelmä ja komponenteittainen suodatus. Suodatettavat kuvat sisälsivät joko suola ja pippuri- tai bittivirhekohinaa. Parhaimmat suodatustulokset sekä numeeristen virhekriteerien että visuaalisen tarkastelun perusteella saatiin komponenteittaisella sekä kuvapisteittäisellä menetelmällä. Työssä käytetyt menetelmät on esitetty algoritmimuodossa. Suodatinalgoritmien toteutukset ja suodatuskokeet tehtiin Matlab-ohjelmistolla.

Neuro-mechanical determinants of repeated treadmill sprints - Usefulness of an "hypoxic to normoxic recovery" approach.

To improve our understanding of the limiting factors during repeated sprinting, we manipulated hypoxia severity during an initial set and examined the effects on performance and associated neuro-mechanical alterations during a subsequent set performed in normoxia. On separate days, 13 active males performed eight 5-s sprints (recovery = 25 s) on an instrumented treadmill in either normoxia near sea-level (SL; FiO2 = 20.9%), moderate (MH; FiO2 = 16.8%) or severe normobaric hypoxia (SH; FiO2 = 13.3%) followed, 6 min later, by four 5-s sprints (recovery = 25 s) in normoxia. Throughout the first set, along with distance covered [larger sprint decrement score in SH (-8.2%) compared to SL (-5.3%) and MH (-7.2%); P < 0.05], changes in contact time, step frequency and root mean square activity (surface electromyography) of the quadriceps (Rectus femoris muscle) in SH exceeded those in SL and MH (P < 0.05). During first sprint of the subsequent normoxic set, the distance covered (99.6, 96.4, and 98.3% of sprint 1 in SL, MH, and SH, respectively), the main kinetic (mean vertical, horizontal, and resultant forces) and kinematic (contact time and step frequency) variables as well as surface electromyogram of quadriceps and plantar flexor muscles were fully recovered, with no significant difference between conditions. Despite differing hypoxic severity levels during sprints 1-8, performance and neuro-mechanical patterns did not differ during the four sprints of the second set performed in normoxia. In summary, under the circumstances of this study (participant background, exercise-to-rest ratio, hypoxia exposure), sprint mechanical performance and neural alterations were largely influenced by the hypoxia severity in an initial set of repeated sprints. However, hypoxia had no residual effect during a subsequent set performed in normoxia. Hence, the recovery of performance and associated neuro-mechanical alterations was complete after resting for 6 min near sea level, with a similar fatigue pattern across conditions during subsequent repeated sprints in normoxia.

BioSuper: A web tool for the superimposition of biomolecules and assemblies with rotational symmetry

Background Most of the proteins in the Protein Data Bank (PDB) are oligomeric complexes consisting of two or more subunits that associate by rotational or helical symmetries. Despite the myriad of superimposition tools in the literature, we could not find any able to account for rotational symmetry and display the graphical results in the web browser. Results BioSuper is a free web server that superimposes and calculates the root mean square deviation (RMSD) of protein complexes displaying rotational symmetry. To the best of our knowledge, BioSuper is the first tool of its kind that provides immediate interactive visualization of the graphical results in the browser, biomolecule generator capabilities, different levels of atom selection, sequence-dependent and structure-based superimposition types, and is the only web tool that takes into account the equivalence of atoms in side chains displaying symmetry ambiguity. BioSuper uses ICM program functionality as a core for the superimpositions and displays the results as text, HTML tables and 3D interactive molecular objects that can be visualized in the browser or in Android and iOS platforms with a free plugin. Conclusions BioSuper is a fast and functional tool that allows for pairwise superimposition of proteins and assemblies displaying rotational symmetry. The web server was created after our own frustration when attempting to superimpose flexible oligomers. We strongly believe that its user-friendly and functional design will be of great interest for structural and computational biologists who need to superimpose oligomeric proteins (or any protein). BioSuper web server is freely available to all users at http://ablab.ucsd.edu/BioSuper webcite.

The Coordinated Radio and Infrared Survey for High-mass Star Formation. II. Source Catalog

The CORNISH project is the highest resolution radio continuum survey of the Galactic plane to date. It is the 5 GHz radio continuum part of a series of multi-wavelength surveys that focus on the northern GLIMPSE region (10° < l < 65°), observed by the Spitzer satellite in the mid-infrared. Observations with the Very Large Array in B and BnA configurations have yielded a 1.''5 resolution Stokes I map with a root mean square noise level better than 0.4 mJy beam 1. Here we describe the data-processing methods and data characteristics, and present a new, uniform catalog of compact radio emission. This includes an implementation of automatic deconvolution that provides much more reliable imaging than standard CLEANing. A rigorous investigation of the noise characteristics and reliability of source detection has been carried out. We show that the survey is optimized to detect emission on size scales up to 14'' and for unresolved sources the catalog is more than 90% complete at a flux density of 3.9 mJy. We have detected 3062 sources above a 7σ detection limit and present their ensemble properties. The catalog is highly reliable away from regions containing poorly sampled extended emission, which comprise less than 2% of the survey area. Imaging problems have been mitigated by down-weighting the shortest spacings and potential artifacts flagged via a rigorous manual inspection with reference to the Spitzer infrared data. We present images of the most common source types found: H II regions, planetary nebulae, and radio galaxies. The CORNISH data and catalog are available online at http://cornish.leeds.ac.uk.

High Altitude Increases Alteration in Maximal Torque but Not in Rapid Torque Development in Knee Extensors after Repeated Treadmill Sprinting.

We assessed knee extensor neuromuscular adjustments following repeated treadmill sprints in different normobaric hypoxia conditions, with special reference to rapid muscle torque production capacity. Thirteen team- and racquet-sport athletes undertook 8 × 5-s "all-out" sprints (passive recovery = 25 s) on a non-motorized treadmill in normoxia (NM; FiO2 = 20.9%), at low (LA; FiO2 = 16.8%) and high (HA; FiO2 = 13.3%) normobaric hypoxia (simulated altitudes of ~1800 m and ~3600 m, respectively). Explosive (~1 s; "fast" instruction) and maximal (~5 s; "hard" instruction) voluntary isometric contractions (MVC) of the knee extensors (KE), with concurrent electromyographic (EMG) activity recordings of the vastus lateralis (VL) and rectus femoris (RF) muscles, were performed before and 1-min post-exercise. Rate of torque development (RTD) and EMG (i.e., Root Mean Square or RMS) rise from 0 to 30, -50, -100, and -200 ms were recorded, and were also normalized to maximal torque and EMG values, respectively. Distance covered during the first 5-s sprint was similar (P > 0.05) in all conditions. A larger (P < 0.05) sprint decrement score and a shorter (P < 0.05) cumulated distance covered over the eight sprints occurred in HA (-8 ± 4% and 178 ± 11 m) but not in LA (-7 ± 3% and 181 ± 10 m) compared to NM (-5 ± 2% and 183 ± 9 m). Compared to NM (-9 ± 7%), a larger (P < 0.05) reduction in MVC torque occurred post-exercise in HA (-14 ± 9%) but not in LA (-12 ± 7%), with no difference between NM and LA (P > 0.05). Irrespectively of condition (P > 0.05), peak RTD (-6 ± 11%; P < 0.05), and normalized peak RMS activity for VL (-8 ± 11%; P = 0.07) and RF (-14 ± 11%; P < 0.01) muscles were reduced post-exercise, whereas reductions (P < 0.05) in absolute RTD occurred within the 0-100 (-8 ± 9%) and 0-200 ms (-10 ± 8%) epochs after contraction onset. After normalization to MVC torque, there was no difference in RTD values. Additionally, the EMG rise for VL muscle was similar (P > 0.05), whereas it increased (P < 0.05) for RF muscle during all epochs post-exercise, independently of the conditions. In summary, alteration in repeated-sprint ability and post-exercise MVC decrease were greater at high altitude than in normoxia or at low altitude. However, the post-exercise alterations in RTD were similar between normoxia and low-to-high hypoxia.

Aplicação de alguns modelos quimiométricos à espectroscopia de fluorescência de raios-X de energia dispersiva

The objective of this work was to accomplish the simultaneous determination of some chemical elements by Energy Dispersive X-ray Fluorescence (EDXRF) Spectroscopy through multivariate calibration in several sample types. The multivariate calibration models were: Back Propagation neural network, Levemberg-Marquardt neural network and Radial Basis Function neural network, fuzzy modeling and Partial Least Squares Regression. The samples were soil standards, plant standards, and mixtures of lead and sulfur salts diluted in silica. The smallest Root Mean Square errors (RMS) were obtained with Back Propagation neural networks, which solved main EDXRF problems in a better way.

Estudo da estrutura e da solvatação do HNP-3, um antibiótico natural, por dinâmica molecular

The structure and hydration of the HNP-3 have been derived from molecular dynamics data using root mean square deviation, radial and energy distributions. Three antiparallel beta sheets were found to be preserved. 15 intramolecular hydrogen bonds were identified together with 36 hydrogen bonds on the backbone and 35 on the side chain atoms. From the point of view of the hydration dynamics, the analysis shows a high solvent accessibility of the monomer and attractive interactions with water molecules.

Moisture sorption isotherms and isosteric heat determination in Chilean papaya (Vasconcellea pubescens)

The moisture sorption isotherms of Chilean papaya were determined at 5, 20, and 45 ºC, over a relative humidity range of 10-95%. The GAB, BET, Oswin, Halsey, Henderson, Smith, Caurie and Iglesias-Chirife models were applied to the sorption experimental data. The goodness of fit of the mathematical models was statistically evaluated by means of the determination coefficient, mean relative percentage deviation, sum square error, root-mean-square error, and chi-square values. The GAB, Oswin and Halsey models were found to be the most suitable for the description of the sorption data. The sorption heats calculated using the Clausius-Clapeyron equation were 57.35 and 59.98 kJ·mol-1, for adsorption and desorption isotherms, respectively.

Estatística aplicada à química: dez dúvidas comuns

Ten common doubts of chemistry students and professionals about their statistical applications are discussed. The use of the N-1 denominator instead of N is described for the standard deviation. The statistical meaning of the denominators of the root mean square error of calibration (RMSEC) and root mean square error of validation (RMSEV) are given for researchers using multivariate calibration methods. The reason why scientists and engineers use the average instead of the median is explained. Several problematic aspects about regression and correlation are treated. The popular use of triplicate experiments in teaching and research laboratories is seen to have its origin in statistical confidence intervals. Nonparametric statistics and bootstrapping methods round out the discussion.

Espectroscopia no infravermelho médio e análise sensorial aplicada à detecção de adulteração de café torrado por adição de cascas de café

Mid-infrared spectroscopy and chemometrics were used to identify adulteration in roasted and ground coffee by addition of coffee husks. Consumers' sensory perception of the adulteration was evaluated by a triangular test of the coffee beverages. Samples containing above 0.5% of coffee husks from pure coffees were discriminated by principal component analysis of the infrared spectra. A partial least-squares regression estimated the husk content in samples and presented a root-mean-square error for prediction of 2.0%. The triangular test indicated that were than 10% of coffee husks are required to cause alterations in consumer perception about adulterated beverages.

Production of baruzeiro seedling in different protected environments and substrates

The high seedlings quality is essential for deployment of homogeneous orchards. This study evaluated the baruzeiro (Dipteryx alata Vog) seedlings formation on different substrates within protected environments. It was used substrates with100% of cattle manure; 100% of cassava stems; 100% of vermiculite; 50% of cattle manure + 50% of cassava stems; 50% of cattle manure + 50% of vermiculite; 50% of cassava stems + 50% of vermiculite; and + ⅓ of cattle manure + ⅓ of cassava stems + ⅓ of vermiculite. These substrates were tested in protected areas: greenhouse; black shade net of 50% shading; and aluminized thermo-reflective screen of 50% shading. A completely randomized experimental design with five replicates of four plants was adopted. Initially, data were submitted to analysis of individual variance of the substrates, in each environment of cultivation, then performing the evaluation of the residual mean square and the analysis of these environments together for comparison. The best substrate for baruzeiro seedlings was pure vermiculite. The substrates with 100% of manure and the substrate with 33.33% of the mixed studied materials can be used for seedlings formation. The environment with screen can be indicated for the production of baruzeiro seedlings, since it gave vigor to the seedlings.

Comparison between hydrographically conditioned digital elevation models in the morphometric charaterization of watersheds

The aim of this study was to compare the hydrographically conditioned digital elevation models (HCDEMs) generated from data of VNIR (Visible Near Infrared) sensor of ASTER (Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer), of SRTM (Shuttle Radar Topography Mission) and topographical maps from IBGE in a scale of 1:50,000, processed in the Geographical Information System (GIS), aiming the morphometric characterization of watersheds. It was taken as basis the Sub-basin of São Bartolomeu River, obtaining morphometric characteristics from HCDEMs. Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) and cross validation were the statistics indexes used to evaluate the quality of HCDEMs. The percentage differences in the morphometric parameters obtained from these three different data sets were less than 10%, except for the mean slope (21%). In general, it was observed a good agreement between HCDEMs generated from remote sensing data and IBGE maps. The result of HCDEM ASTER was slightly higher than that from HCDEM SRTM. The HCDEM ASTER was more accurate than the HCDEM SRTM in basins with high altitudes and rugged terrain, by presenting frequency altimetry nearest to HCDEM IBGE, considered standard in this study.

Seedlings of Acrocomia aculeata in diferent substrates and protected environments

The seedling production stage is the key to achieve uniformity in tree breeding stage. This study evaluated "bocaiúva" (Acrocomia aculeata) seedling formation, with pre-germinated seeds in different substrates and protected environments, in the University of Mato Grosso do Sul State, Aquidauana, MS. As substrates, we used 100% cattle manure (M), 100% cassava branches (CB), 100% vermiculite (V), 50% cattle manure + 50% cassava branches, 50 % cattle manure + 50% vermiculite, 50% cassava branches + 50% vermiculite and ⅓ cattle manure + ⅓ cassava branches + ⅓ vermiculite. These substrates were tested in a greenhouse covered with 150 µm low density polyethylene (LDPE) film under thermo-reflective screen with 50% shading under film; black screen with 50% shading on the sides; black monofilament screen with 50% shading set on roof and sides; and aluminized thermo- reflective screen with 50% shading set on roof and sides. The completely randomized experimental design with 5 replications of 5 plants each was adopted. Initially, data were submitted to analysis of substrate individual variance in each growing environment, then performing the waste mean square evaluation and their environment joint analysis for comparison. The best growing environment is the thermo-reflective screen compared to LDPE greenhouse and black screen set. All substrates containing manure are recommended for bocaiúva seedlings formation. The pure cassava branch is not indicated for seedling, even using chemical fertilizer.

Evaluation of thermorregulatory capacity of dairy buffaloes using infrared thermography

ABSTRACT The objective of this study was to evaluate the thermoregulatory response of dairy buffaloes in pre-milking and post-milking. To identify animal thermoregulatory capacity, skin surface temperatures were taken by an infrared thermometer (SST), a thermographic camera (MTBP) as well as respiratory rate records (RR). Black Globe and Humidity Index (BGHI), radiating thermal load (RTL) and enthalpy (H) were used to characterize the thermal environment. Artificial Neural Networks analyzed those indices as well as animal physiological data, using a single layer trained with the least mean square (LMS) algorithm. The results indicated that pre-milking and post-milking environments reached BGHI, RR, SST and MTBP values above thermal neutrality zone for buffaloes. In addition, limits of surface skin temperatures were mostly influenced by changing ambient conditions to the detriment of respiratory rates. It follows that buffaloes are sensitive to environmental changes and their skin temperatures are the best indicators of thermal comfort in relation to respiratory rate.