Expectations, Learning and Monetary Policy: An Overview of Recent Research

Expectations about the future are central for determination of current macroeconomic outcomes and the formulation of monetary policy. Recent literature has explored ways for supplementing the benchmark of rational expectations with explicit models of expectations formation that rely on econometric learning. Some apparently natural policy rules turn out to imply expectational instability of private agents’ learning. We use the standard New Keynesian model to illustrate this problem and survey the key results about interest-rate rules that deliver both uniqueness and stability of equilibrium under econometric learning. We then consider some practical concerns such as measurement errors in private expectations, observability of variables and learning of structural parameters required for policy. We also discuss some recent applications including policy design under perpetual learning, estimated models with learning, recurrent hyperinflations, and macroeconomic policy to combat liquidity traps and deflation.

When Do We Learn to Cooperate? The Role of Social Learning in Social Dilemmas

In this paper, I look at the interaction between social learning and cooperative behavior. I model this using a social dilemma game with publicly observed sequential actions and asymmetric information about pay offs. I find that some informed agents in this model act, individually and without collusion, to conceal the privately optimal action. Because the privately optimal action is socially costly the behavior of informed agents can lead to a Pareto improvement in a social dilemma. In my model I show that it is possible to get cooperative behavior if information is restricted to a small but non-zero proportion of the population. Moreover, such cooperative behavior occurs in a finite setting where it is public knowledge which agent will act last. The proportion of cooperative agents within the population can be made arbitrarily close to 1 by increasing the finite number of agents playing the game. Finally, I show that under a broad set of conditions that it is a Pareto improvement on a corner value, in the ex-ante welfare sense, for an interior proportion of the population to be informed.

The normative dimension of social life from a second-person perspective

This thesis argues that insofar as we want to account for the normative dimension of social life, we must be careful to avoid construing that normative dimension in such a way as to exclude that which the second-person perspective reveals is important to social life and our ability to participate in it.¦The second-person perspective reveals that social life ought to be understood as a mix or balance of the regular and the irregular, where, in addition, those one interacts with are always to some extent experienced as other in a way that is neither immediately, nor perhaps ultimately, understandable. For persons to be able to participate in social life, conceived of in this way, they must have abilities that allow them to be, to some extent, hesitant and tentative in their relations with others, and thus tolerant of ambiguity, uncertainty and unpredictability, and responsive to and capable of learning from the otherness of others in the course of interacting with them.¦Incorporating the second-person perspective means we have to make some changes to the way we think about the normative in general, and the normative dimension of social life in particular. It does not mean giving up on the distinction between the normative and the regular - that continues to be fundamentally important but it does mean not excluding, as part of social life and as worthy of explanation, all that which is irregular. A radical way of putting it would be to say that there must be a sense in which the irregular is part of the normative. A less radical way, and the way adopted by this thesis, is to say that any account of the normative dimension of social life must not be such as to exclude the importance of irregularity from social life. This will mean 1) not characterising conventions, norms and rules as determinants of appropriateness and inappropriateness; 2) not thinking of them as necessary; 3) not thinking of them as necessarily governing minds; and 4) not thinking of them as necessarily shared.¦-¦L'argument principal de la thèse est que, pour rendre compte de la dimension normative de la vie sociale, il faut veiller à ne pas exclure la perspective de la deuxième personne - une perspective importante pour comprendre la vie sociale et la capacité requise pour y participer.¦Cette perspective nous permet d'imaginer la vie sociale comme un mélange ou un équilibre entre le régulier et l'irrégulier, l'interaction entre des individus pouvant être appréhendée comme l'expérience de chaque personne avec «l'autre» d'une manière qui n'est pas immédiatement compréhensible, et qui ne peut pas, peut-être, être ultimement comprise. Pour participer à la vie sociale, l'on doit avoir la capacité de rester hésitant et «réactif» dans ses relations avec les autres, de rester ouvert à leur altérité et de tolérer l'ambiguïté, l'incertitude et l'imprévisibilité des interactions sociales.¦Adopter une perspective «à la deuxième personne» conduit à une autre manière de penser la normativité en général, et la dimension normative de la vie sociale en particulier. Cela ne veut pas dire qu'il faut abandonner la distinction entre le normatif et le régulier - une distinction qui garde une importance fondamentale - mais qu'il faut reconnaître l'irrégulier comme faisant partie de la vie sociale et comme étant digne, en tant que tel, d'être expliqué. Une conception radicale pourrait même concevoir l'irrégulier comme faisant partie intégrante de la normativité. Une approche moins radicale, qui est celle adoptée dans cette thèse, est de dire que tout compte-rendu de la dimension normative de la vie sociale doit prendre en considération l'importance de l'irrégularité dans la vie sociale. Une telle approche implique que les conventions, normes et règles (1) ne déterminent pas ce qui est approprié ou inapproprié; (2) ne sont pas toujours nécessaires ; (3) ne gouvernent pas le fonctionnement de l'esprit ; et (4) ne sont pas nécessairement partagées.

A cognitive attempt to understanding female entrepreneurial potential: the role of social norms and culture

This article analyzes the different perceptions of both male and female potential entrepreneurs from three European regions differing in their respective level of economic development and entrepreneurial culture. We use an extended cognitive model of entrepreneurial intentions based on the theory of planned behaviour, the theory of normative social behaviour and social capital literature. Results show females have lower self-efficacy and entrepreneurial attraction than males, thus leading to lower entrepreneurial intention. Differences between the three subsamples are small when males are studied. However, female entrepreneurial intentions and perceptions are more affected by the cultural context.

Socioeconomic status, structural and functional measures of social support, and mortality: The British Whitehall II Cohort Study, 1985-2009.

The authors examined the associations of social support with socioeconomic status (SES) and with mortality, as well as how SES differences in social support might account for SES differences in mortality. Analyses were based on 9,333 participants from the British Whitehall II Study cohort, a longitudinal cohort established in 1985 among London-based civil servants who were 35-55 years of age at baseline. SES was assessed using participant's employment grades at baseline. Social support was assessed 3 times in the 24.4-year period during which participants were monitored for death. In men, marital status, and to a lesser extent network score (but not low perceived support or high negative aspects of close relationships), predicted both all-cause and cardiovascular mortality. Measures of social support were not associated with cancer mortality. Men in the lowest SES category had an increased risk of death compared with those in the highest category (for all-cause mortality, hazard ratio = 1.59, 95% confidence interval: 1.21, 2.08; for cardiovascular mortality, hazard ratio = 2.48, 95% confidence interval: 1.55, 3.92). Network score and marital status combined explained 27% (95% confidence interval: 14, 43) and 29% (95% confidence interval: 17, 52) of the associations between SES and all-cause and cardiovascular mortality, respectively. In women, there was no consistent association between social support indicators and mortality. The present study suggests that in men, social isolation is not only an important risk factor for mortality but is also likely to contribute to differences in mortality by SES.

The London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine: a new century of malaria research

The global malaria situation has scarcely improved in the last 100 years, despite major advances in our knowledge of the basic biology, epidemiology and clinical basis of the disease. Effective malaria control, leading to a significant decrease in the morbidity and mortality attributable to malaria, will require a multidisciplinary approach. New tools - drugs, vaccine and insecticides - are needed but there is also much to be gained by better use of existing tools: using drugs in combination in order to slow the development of drug resistance; targeting resources to areas of greatest need; using geographic information systems to map the populations at risk and more sophisticated marketing techniques to distribute bed nets and insecticides. Sustainable malaria control may require the deployment of a highly effective vaccine, but there is much that can be done in the meantime to reduce the burden of disease.

Essential diagnostics - the role of the Department of Biomedical Research of the Royal Tropical Institute in the 21st century

In the light of emerging and overlooked infectious diseases and widespread drug resistance, diagnostics have become increasingly important in supporting surveillance, disease control and outbreak management programs. In many low-income countries the diagnostic service has been a neglected part of health care, often lacking quantity and quality or even non-existing at all. High-income countries have exploited few of their advanced technical abilities for the much-needed development of low-cost, rapid diagnostic tests to improve the accuracy of diagnosis and accelerate the start of appropriate treatment. As is now also recognized by World Healt Organization, investment in the development of affordable diagnostic tools is urgently needed to further our ability to control a variety of diseases that form a major threat to humanity. The Royal Tropical Institute's Department of Biomedical Research aims to contribute to the health of people living in the tropics. To this end, its multidisciplinary group of experts focuses on the diagnosis of diseases that are major health problems in low-income countries. In partnership we develop, improve and evaluate simple and cheap diagnostic tests, and perform epidemiological studies. Moreover, we advice and support others - especially those in developing countries - in their efforts to diagnose infectious diseases.

Inspection of Social Care Support Services for Carers of Older People (PDF 1776 KB)

Social Services Inspection Final Report for Craigavon & Banbridge - fieldwork inspection 14-25 Nov 2005

Inspection of Social Care Support Services for Carers of Older People (PDF 494 KB)

Down Lisburn Health And Social Services Trust Eastern Health And Social Services Board Fieldwork Inspection: 31st May 2005 - 10th June 2005 (Final Report April 2006)