945 resultados para Estimator standard error and efficiency


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We present sea surface temperature (SST) estimates based on the relative abundances of long-chain C37 alkenones (UK37') in four sediment cores from a transect spanning the subtropical to subantarctic waters across the subtropical front east of New Zealand. SST estimates from UK37' are compared to those derived from foraminiferal assemblages (using the modern analog technique) in two of these cores. Reconstructions of SST in core tops and Holocene sediments agree well with modern average summer temperatures of ~18°C in subtropical waters and ~14°C in subpolar waters, with a 4°-5°C gradient across the front. Down core UK37' SST estimates indicate that the regional summer SST was 4°-5°C cooler during the last glaciation with an SST of ~10°C in subpolar waters and an SST of ~14°C in subtropical waters. Temperature reconstructions from foraminiferal assemblages agree with those derived from alkenones for the Holocene. In subtropical waters, reconstructions also agree with a glacial cooling of 4° to ~14°C. In contrast, reconstructions for subantarctic pre-Holocene waters indicate a cooling of 8°C with glacial age warm season water temperatures of ~6°C. Thus the alkenones suggest the glacial temperature gradient across the front was the same or reduced slightly to 3.5°-4°C, whereas foraminiferal reconstructions suggest it doubled to 8°C. Our results support previous work indicating that the STF remained fixed over the Chatham Rise during the Last Glacial Maximum. However, the differing results from the two techniques require additional explanation. A change in euphotic zone temperature profiles, seasonality of growth, or preferred growth depth must have affected the temperatures recorded by these biologically based proxies. Regardless of the specific reason, a differential response to the environmental changes between the two climate regimes by the organisms on which the estimates are based suggests increased upwelling associated with increased winds and/or a shallowing of the thermocline associated with increased stratification of the surface layer in the last glaciation.

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Neogene climates and vegetation history of western Yunnan are reconstructed on the basis of known fossil plants using the Coexistence Approach (CA) and Leaf Margin Analysis (LMA). Four Neogene leaf floras from Tengchong, Jianchuan and Eryuan in southwestern China are analyzed by the CA, and the paleoclimatic data of one Miocene carpoflora from Longling and three Pliocene palynofloras from Longling, Yangyi and Eryuan are used for comparison. The Miocene vegetation of the whole of West Yunnan is subtropical evergreen broad-leaved forest, and a similar mean annual precipitation is inferred for Tengchong, Longling and Jianchuan. However, by the Late Pliocene a large difference in vegetation occurred between the two slopes of Gaoligong Mountain, western Yunnan. The region of Tengchong retained a subtropical evergreen broad-leaved forest vegetation, whereas in Yangyi and Eryuan a vertical vegetation zonation had developed, which consists, in ascending order, of humid evergreen broad-leaved, needle and broad-leaved mixed evergreen, and coniferous forests. Distinctively, the Late Pliocene vegetational patterns of West Yunnan were already very similar to those of the present, and the Pliocene mean annual precipitation in Tengchong was markedly higher than that of Yangyi and Eryuan. Considering that the overall vegetation of West Yunnan and the precipitation at Yangyi and Eryuan have undergone no distinct change since the Late Pliocene, we conclude that the Hengduan Mountains on the northern boundary of West Yunnan must have arisen after the Miocene and approached their highest elevation before the Late Pliocene. Furthermore, the fact of the eastern portion of the Tibetan Plateau underwent a slight uplift after the Late Pliocene is also supported.

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The distribution of rainfall in tropical Africa is controlled by the African rainbelt**1, which oscillates on a seasonal basis. The rainbelt has varied on centennial to millennial timescales along with changes in Northern Hemisphere high-latitude climate**2, 3, 4, 5, the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation**6 and low-latitude insolation**7 over the past glacial-interglacial cycle. However, the overall dynamics of the African rainbelt remain poorly constrained and are not always consistent with a latitudinal migration**2, 4, 5, 6, as has been proposed for other regions**8, 9. Here we use terrestrially derived organic and sedimentary markers from marine sediment cores to reconstruct the distribution of vegetation, and hence rainfall, in tropical Africa during extreme climate states over the past 23,000 years. Our data indicate that rather than migrating latitudinally, the rainbelt contracted and expanded symmetrically in both hemispheres in response to changes in climate. During the Last Glacial Maximum and Heinrich Stadial 1, the rainbelt contracted relative to the late Holocene, which we attribute to a latitudinal compression of atmospheric circulation associated with lower global mean temperatures**10. Conversely, during the mid-Holocene climatic optimum, the rainbelt expanded across tropical Africa. In light of our findings, it is not clear whether the tropical rainbelt has migrated latitudinally on a global scale, as has been suggested**8,9.

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The present study examines sublethal effects of near-future (year 2100) ocean acidification (OA) on regenerative capacity, biochemical composition, and behavior of the sea star Luidia clathrata, a predominant predator in sub-tropical soft-bottom habitats. Two groups of sea stars, each with two arms excised, were maintained on a formulated diet in seawater bubbled with air alone (pH 8.2, approximating a pCO2 of 380 µatm) or with a controlled mixture of air/C02 (pH 7.8, approximating a pCO2 of 780 µatm). Arm length, total body wet weight, and righting responses were measured weekly. After 97 days, a period of time sufficient for 80% arm regeneration, pyloric caecal indices, and protein, carbohydrate, lipid, and ash levels were determined for body wall and pyloric caecal tissues of intact and regenerating arms of individuals held in both seawater pH treatments. The present study indicates that predicted near-term levels of ocean acidification (seawater pH 7.8) do not significantly impact whole animal growth, arm regeneration rates, biochemical composition, or righting behavior in this common soft bottom sea star.

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Ocean acidification, the assimilation of atmospheric CO2 by the oceans that decreases the pH and CaCO3 saturation state (Omega) of seawater, is projected to have severe adverse consequences for calcifying organisms. While strong evidence suggests calcification by tropical reef-building corals containing algal symbionts (zooxanthellae) will decline over the next century, likely responses of azooxanthellate corals to ocean acidification are less well understood. Because azooxanthellate corals do not obtain photosynthetic energy from symbionts, they provide a system for studying the direct effects of acidification on energy available for calcification. The solitary azooxanthellate orange cup coral Balanophyllia elegans often lives in low-pH, upwelled waters along the California coast. In an 8-month factorial experiment, we measured the effects of three pCO2 treatments (410, 770, and 1220 µatm) and two feeding frequencies (3-day and 21-day intervals) on "planulation" (larval release) by adult B. elegans, and on the survival, skeletal growth, and calcification of newly settled juveniles. Planulation rates were affected by food level but not pCO2. Juvenile mortality was highest under high pCO2 (1220 µatm) and low food (21-day intervals). Feeding rate had a greater impact on calcification of B. elegans than pCO2. While net calcification was positive even at 1220 µatm (~3 times current atmospheric pCO2), overall calcification declined by ~25-45%, and skeletal density declined by ~35-45% as pCO2 increased from 410 to 1220 µatm. Aragonite crystal morphology changed at high pCO2, becoming significantly shorter but not wider at 1220 µatm. We conclude that food abundance is critical for azooxanthellate coral calcification, and that B. elegans may be partially protected from adverse consequences of ocean acidification in habitats with abundant heterotrophic food.

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Metabolic processes have the potential to modulate the effects of ocean acidification (OA) in nearshore macroalgal beds. We investigated whether natural mixed assemblages of the articulate coralline macroalgae Arthrocardia corymbosa and understory crustose coralline algae (CCA) altered pH and O2 concentrations within and immediately above their canopies. In a unidirectional flume, we tested the effect of water velocity (0-0.1 m/s), bulk seawater pH (ambient pH 8.05, and pH 7.65), and irradiance (photosynthetically saturating light and darkness) on pH and O2 concentration gradients, and the derived concentration boundary layer (CBL) thickness. At bulk seawater pH 7.65 and slow velocities (0 and 0.015 m/s), pH at the CCA surface increased to 7.90-8.00 in the light. Although these manipulations were short term, this indicates a potential daytime buffering capacity that could alleviate the effects of OA. Photosynthetic activity also increased O2 concentrations at the surface of the CCA. However, this moderating capacity was flow dependent; the CBL thickness decreased from an average of 26.8 mm from the CCA surface at 0.015 m/s to 4.1 mm at 0.04 m/s. The reverse trends occurred in the dark, with respiration causing pH and O2 concentrations to decrease at the CCA surface. At all flow velocities the CBL thicknesses (up to 68 mm) were much greater than those previously published, indicating that the presence of canopies can alter the CBL substantially. In situ, the height of macroalgal canopies can be an order of magnitude larger than those used here, indicating that the degree of buffering to OA will be context dependent.

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Ocean surface CO2 levels are increasing in line with rising atmospheric CO2 and could exceed 900 µatm by year 2100, with extremes above 2000 µatm in some coastal habitats. The imminent increase in ocean pCO2 is predicted to have negative consequences for marine fishes, including reduced aerobic performance, but variability among species could be expected. Understanding interspecific responses to ocean acidification is important for predicting the consequences of ocean acidification on communities and ecosystems. In the present study, the effects of exposure to near-future seawater CO2 (860 µatm) on resting (M O2rest) and maximum (M O2max) oxygen consumption rates were determined for three tropical coral reef fish species interlinked through predator-prey relationships: juvenile Pomacentrus moluccensis and Pomacentrus amboinensis, and one of their predators: adult Pseudochromis fuscus. Contrary to predictions, one of the prey species, P. amboinensis, displayed a 28-39% increase in M O2max after both an acute and four-day exposure to near-future CO2 seawater, while maintaining M O2rest. By contrast, the same treatment had no significant effects on M O2rest or M O2max of the other two species. However, acute exposure of P. amboinensis to 1400 and 2400 µatm CO2 resulted in M O2max returning to control values. Overall, the findings suggest that: (1) the metabolic costs of living in a near-future CO2 seawater environment were insignificant for the species examined at rest; (2) the M O2max response of tropical reef species to near-future CO2 seawater can be dependent on the severity of external hypercapnia; and (3) near-future ocean pCO2 may not be detrimental to aerobic scope of all fish species and it may even augment aerobic scope of some species. The present results also highlight that close phylogenetic relatedness and living in the same environment, does not necessarily imply similar physiological responses to near-future CO2.

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Efforts to evaluate the response of coral larvae to global climate change (GCC) and ocean acidification (OA) typically employ short experiments of fixed length, yet it is unknown how the response is affected by exposure duration. In this study, we exposed larvae from the brooding coral Pocillopora damicornis to contrasts of temperature (24.00 °C [ambient] versus 30.49 °C) and pCO2 (49.4 Pa versus 86.2 Pa) for varying periods (1-5 days) to test the hypothesis that exposure duration had no effect on larval response as assessed by protein content, respiration, Symbiodinium density, and survivorship; exposure times were ecologically relevant compared to representative pelagic larval durations (PLD) for corals. Larvae differed among days for all response variables, and the effects of the treatment were relatively consistent regardless of exposure duration for three of the four response variables. Protein content and Symbiodinium density were unaffected by temperature and pCO2, but respiration increased with temperature (but not pCO2) with the effect intensifying as incubations lengthened. Survival, however, differed significantly among treatments at the end of the study, and by the 5th day, 78% of the larvae were alive and swimming under ambient temperature and ambient pCO2, but only 55-59% were alive in the other treatments. These results demonstrate that the physiological effects of temperature and pCO2 on coral larvae can reliably be detected within days, but effects on survival require > or = 5 days to detect. The detection of time-dependent effects on larval survivorship suggests that the influence of GCC and OA will be stronger for corals having long PLDs.

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Coralline algae are considered among the most sensitive species to near future ocean acidification. We tested the effects of elevated pCO2 on the metabolism of the free-living coralline alga Lithothamnion corallioides ("maerl") and the interactions with changes in temperature. Specimens were collected in North Brittany (France) and grown for 3 months at pCO2 of 380 (ambient pCO2), 550, 750, and 1000 µatm (elevated pCO2) and at successive temperatures of 10°C (ambient temperature in winter), 16°C (ambient temperature in summer), and 19°C (ambient temperature in summer +3°C). At each temperature, gross primary production, respiration (oxygen flux), and calcification (alkalinity flux) rates were assessed in the light and dark. Pigments were determined by HPLC. Chl a, carotene, and zeaxanthin were the three major pigments found in L. corallioides thalli. Elevated pCO2 did not affect pigment content while temperature slightly decreased zeaxanthin and carotene content at 10°C. Gross production was not affected by temperature but was significantly affected by pCO2 with an increase between 380 and 550 µatm. Light, dark, and diel (24 h) calcification rates strongly decreased with increasing pCO2 regardless of the temperature. Although elevated pCO2 only slightly affected gross production in L. corallioides, diel net calcification was reduced by up to 80% under the 1,000 µatm treatment. Our findings suggested that near future levels of CO2 will have profound consequences for carbon and carbonate budgets in rhodolith beds and for the sustainability of these habitats.

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We tested the effect of near-future CO2 levels (= 490, 570, 700, and 960 µatm CO2) on the olfactory responses and activity levels of juvenile coral trout, Plectropomus leopardus, a piscivorous reef fish that is also one of the most important fisheries species on the Great Barrier Reef, Australia. Juvenile coral trout reared for 4 weeks at 570 µatm CO2 exhibited similar sensory responses and behaviors to juveniles reared at 490 µatm CO2 (control). In contrast, juveniles reared at 700 and 960 µatm CO2 exhibited dramatically altered sensory function and behaviors. At these higher CO2 concentrations, juveniles became attracted to the odor of potential predators, as has been observed in other reef fishes. They were more active, spent less time in shelter, ventured further from shelter, and were bolder than fish reared at 490 or 570 µatm CO2. These results demonstrate that behavioral impairment of coral trout is unlikely if pCO2 remains below 600 µatm; however, at higher levels, there are significant impacts on juvenile performance that are likely to affect survival and energy budgets, with consequences for predator-prey interactions and commercial fisheries.

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Ocean acidification (OA) is a reduction in oceanic pH due to increased absorption of anthropogenically produced CO2. This change alters the seawater concentrations of inorganic carbon species that are utilized by macroalgae for photosynthesis and calcification: CO2 and HCO3 increase; CO32 decreases. Two common methods of experimentally reducing seawater pH differentially alter other aspects of carbonate chemistry: the addition of CO2 gas mimics changes predicted due to OA, while the addition of HCl results in a comparatively lower [HCO3]. We measured the short-term photosynthetic responses of five macroalgal species with various carbon-use strategies in one of three seawater pH treatments: pH 7.5 lowered by bubbling CO2 gas, pH 7.5 lowered by HCl, and ambient pH 7.9. There was no difference in photosynthetic rates between the CO2, HCl, or pH 7.9 treatments for any of the species examined. However, the ability of macroalgae to raise the pH of the surrounding seawater through carbon uptake was greatest in the pH 7.5 treatments. Modeling of pH change due to carbon assimilation indicated that macroalgal species that could utilize HCO3 increased their use of CO2 in the pH 7.5 treatments compared to pH 7.9 treatments. Species only capable of using CO2 did so exclusively in all treatments. Although CO2 is not likely to be limiting for photosynthesis for the macroalgal species examined, the diffusive uptake of CO2 is less energetically expensive than active HCO3 uptake, and so HCO3-using macroalgae may benefit in future seawater with elevated CO2.

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Phytoplankton populations can display high levels of genetic diversity that, when reflected by phenotypic variability, may stabilize a species response to environmental changes. We studied the effects of increased temperature and CO2 availability as predicted consequences of global change, on 16 genetically different isolates of the diatom Skeletonema marinoi from the Adriatic Sea and the Skagerrak (North Sea), and on eight strains of the PST (paralytic shellfish toxin)-producing dinoflagellate Alexandrium ostenfeldii from the Baltic Sea. Maximum growth rates were estimated in batch cultures of acclimated isolates grown for five to 10 generations in a factorial design at 20 and 24 °C, and present day and next century applied atmospheric pCO2, respectively. In both species, individual strains were affected in different ways by increased temperature and pCO2. The strongest response variability, buffering overall effects, was detected among Adriatic S. marinoi strains. Skagerrak strains showed a more uniform response, particularly to increased temperature, with an overall positive effect on growth. Increased temperature also caused a general growth stimulation in A. ostenfeldii, despite notable variability in strain-specific response patterns. Our data revealed a significant relationship between strain-specific growth rates and the impact of pCO2 on growth-slow growing cultures were generally positively affected, while fast growing cultures showed no or negative responses to increased pCO2. Toxin composition of A. ostenfeldii was consistently altered by elevated temperature and increased CO2 supply in the tested strains, resulting in overall promotion of saxitoxin production by both treatments. Our findings suggest that phenotypic variability within populations plays an important role in the adaptation of phytoplankton to changing environments, potentially attenuating short-term effects and forming the basis for selection. In particular, A. ostenfeldii blooms may expand and increase in toxicity under increased water temperature and atmospheric pCO2 conditions, with potentially severe consequences for the coastal ecosystem.

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A 30-year series (1978-2007) of photographic records were analysed to determine changes in lake ice cover, local (low elevation) and montane (high elevation) snow cover and phenological stages of mountain birch (Betula pubescens ssp. czerepanovii) at the Abisko Scientific Research Station, Sweden. In most cases, the photographic-derived data showed no significant difference in phenophase score from manually observed field records from the same period, demonstrating the accuracy and potential of using weekly repeat photography as a quicker, cheaper and more adaptable tool to remotely study phenology in both biological and physical systems. Overall, increases in ambient temperatures coupled with decreases in winter ice and snow cover, and earlier occurrence of birch foliage, signal a reduction in the length of winter, a shift towards earlier springs and an increase in the length of available growing season in the Swedish sub-arctic.