Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States: a state of knowledge report from the U.S. Global Change Research Program

Executive Summary: Observations show that warming of the climate is unequivocal. The global warming observed over the past 50 years is due primarily to human-induced emissions of heat-trapping gases. These emissions come mainly from the burning of fossil fuels (coal, oil, and gas), with important contributions from the clearing of forests, agricultural practices, and other activities. Warming over this century is projected to be considerably greater than over the last century. The global average temperature since 1900 has risen by about 1.5ºF. By 2100, it is projected to rise another 2 to 11.5ºF. The U.S. average temperature has risen by a comparable amount and is very likely to rise more than the global average over this century, with some variation from place to place. Several factors will determine future temperature increases. Increases at the lower end of this range are more likely if global heat-trapping gas emissions are cut substantially. If emissions continue to rise at or near current rates, temperature increases are more likely to be near the upper end of the range. Volcanic eruptions or other natural variations could temporarily counteract some of the human-induced warming, slowing the rise in global temperature, but these effects would only last a few years. Reducing emissions of carbon dioxide would lessen warming over this century and beyond. Sizable early cuts in emissions would significantly reduce the pace and the overall amount of climate change. Earlier cuts in emissions would have a greater effect in reducing climate change than comparable reductions made later. In addition, reducing emissions of some shorter-lived heat-trapping gases, such as methane, and some types of particles, such as soot, would begin to reduce warming within weeks to decades. Climate-related changes have already been observed globally and in the United States. These include increases in air and water temperatures, reduced frost days, increased frequency and intensity of heavy downpours, a rise in sea level, and reduced snow cover, glaciers, permafrost, and sea ice. A longer ice-free period on lakes and rivers, lengthening of the growing season, and increased water vapor in the atmosphere have also been observed. Over the past 30 years, temperatures have risen faster in winter than in any other season, with average winter temperatures in the Midwest and northern Great Plains increasing more than 7ºF. Some of the changes have been faster than previous assessments had suggested. These climate-related changes are expected to continue while new ones develop. Likely future changes for the United States and surrounding coastal waters include more intense hurricanes with related increases in wind, rain, and storm surges (but not necessarily an increase in the number of these storms that make landfall), as well as drier conditions in the Southwest and Caribbean. These changes will affect human health, water supply, agriculture, coastal areas, and many other aspects of society and the natural environment. This report synthesizes information from a wide variety of scientific assessments (see page 7) and recently published research to summarize what is known about the observed and projected consequences of climate change on the United States. It combines analysis of impacts on various sectors such as energy, water, and transportation at the national level with an assessment of key impacts on specific regions of the United States. For example, sea-level rise will increase risks of erosion, storm surge damage, and flooding for coastal communities, especially in the Southeast and parts of Alaska. Reduced snowpack and earlier snow melt will alter the timing and amount of water supplies, posing significant challenges for water resource management in the West. (PDF contains 196 pages)

Prevalence, intensity, longevity, and persistence of Anisakis sp. larvae and Lacistorhynchus tenuis metacestodes in San Francisco striped bass

Thirteen hundred and seventy-three striped bass, Marone saxatilis, were collected from the San Francisco Bay-Delta area to correlate host diet with parasitic infections and to determine the prevalence, intensity, longevity, and persistence of larval Anisakis sp. nematodes and the metacestode Lacistorhynchus tenuis. There is an increase in the prevalence and intensity of Anisakis sp. and in the intensity of L. tenuis with increase of age of the host. These increases are probably related to the diet and the persistence of tbe parasites. The infections of both species are overdispersed. San Francisco Bay striped bass are an incompatible host for both species of parasites. Degenerated Anisakis sp. will remain in lhe host for at least 8 months and L. tenuis metacestodes for 22 months. The occurrence of several other species of parasites and a tumor are also reported. (PDF file contains 10 pages.)

A Self-Referencing Intensity Based Polymer Optical Fiber Sensor for Liquid Detection

A novel self-referencing fiber optic intensity sensor based on bending losses of a partially polished polymer optical fiber (POF) coupler is presented. The coupling ratio (K) depends on the external liquid in which the sensor is immersed. It is possible to distinguish between different liquids and to detect their presence. Experimental results for the most usual liquids found in industry, like water and oil, are given. K value increases up to 10% from the nominal value depending on the liquid. Sensor temperature dependence has also been studied for a range from 25 degrees C (environmental condition) to 50 degrees C. Any sector requiring liquid level measurements in flammable atmospheres can benefit from this intrinsically safe technology.

Influence of HCl on CO and NO emissions in combustion

The influence of HCl on CO and NO emissions was experimentally investigated in an entrained flow reactor (EFR) and an internally circulating fluidized bed (ICFB). The results in EFR show the addition of HCl inhibits CO oxidation and NO formation at 1073 K and 1123 K. At the lower temperature (1073 K) the inhibition of HCl becomes more obvious. In ICFB, chlorine-containing plastic (PVC) was added to increase the concentration of HCl during the combustion of coal or coke. Results show that HCl is likely to enhance the reduction of NO and N2O. HCl greatly increases CO and CH4 emission in the flue gas. A detailed mechanism of CO/NO/HCl/SO2 system was used to model the effect of HCl in combustion. The results indicate that HCl not only promotes the recombination of radicals O, H, and OH, but also accelerates the chemical equilibration of radicals. The influence of HCl on the radicals mainly occurs at 800-1200 K. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Laser intensity effects in photoemission and photoelectron spectra produced in laser-induced autoionisation

Strong laser-field-induced autoionisation in the presence of both photoionising and radiative decay of the autoionising state (AS) is investigated, focusing on the laser intensity dependence of the photoemission and photoelectron spectra. In contrast to previous predictions, power broadening and increasing reduction of the doublet peak heights with field strength are found in the photoemission spectrum. Similar effects leading to considerable suppression and even complete disappearance of the lowest-order peaks in the photoelectron spectrum, together with peak switching, are also demonstrated, which are closely related to above-threshold ionisation. In addition, it is suggested that the total number of energetic photoelectrons may serve as an alternative to measuring the atomic parameters of the AS. All these effects are attributed to the presence of the strong `probe': laser-induced decay of the AS.

If the tide is rising, who pays for the ark?

Two common goals of this meeting are to arrest the effects of sea level rise and other phenomena caused by Greenhouse Gases from anthropogenic sources ("GHG",) and to mitigate the effects. The fundamental questions are: (1) how to get there and (2) who should shoulder the cost? Given Washington gridlock, states, NGO's and citizens such as the Inupiat of the Village of Kivalina have turned to the courts for solutions. Current actions for public nuisance seek (1) to reduce and eventually eliminate GHG emissions, (2) damages for health effects and property damage—plus hundreds of millions in dollars spent to prepare for the foregoing. The U.S. Court of Appeals just upheld the action against the generators of some 10% of the CO2 emissions from human activities in the U.S., clearing the way for a trial featuring the state of the art scientific linkage between GHG production and the effects of global warming. Climate change impacts on coastal regions manifest most prominently through sea level rise and its impacts: beach erosion, loss of private and public structures, relocation costs, loss of use and accompanying revenues (e.g. tourism), beach replenishment and armoring costs, impacts of flooding during high water events, and loss of tax base. Other effects may include enhanced storm frequency and intensity, increased insurance risks and costs, impacts to water supplies, fires and biological changes through invasions or local extinctions (IPCC AR4, 2007; Okmyung, et al., 2007). There is an increasing urgency for federal and state governments to focus on the local and regional levels and consistently provide the information, tools, and methods necessary for adaptation. Calls for action at all levels acknowledge that a viable response must engage federal, state and local expertise, perspectives, and resources in a coordinated and collaborative effort. A workshop held in December 2000 on coastal inundation and sea level rise proposes a shared framework that can help guide where investments should be made to enable states and local governments to assess impacts and initiate adaptation strategies over the next decade. (PDF contains 5 pages)

Investigating changes in global tropical cyclone storm frequency and intensity

Understanding fluctuations in tropical cyclone activity along United States shores and abroad becomes increasingly important as coastal managers and planners seek to save lives, mitigate damage, and plan for resilience in the face of changing storminess and sea-level rise. Tropical cyclone activity has long been of concern to coastal areas as they bring strong winds, heavy rains, and high seas. Given projections of a warming climate, current estimates suggest that not only will tropical cyclones increase in frequency, but also in intensity (maximum sustained winds and minimum central pressures). An understanding of what has happened historically is an important step in identifying potential future changes in tropical cyclone frequency and intensity. The ability to detect such changes depends on a consistent and reliable global tropical cyclone dataset. Until recently no central repository for historical tropical cyclone data existed. To fill this need, the International Best Track Archive for Climate Stewardship (IBTrACS) dataset was developed to collect all known global historical tropical cyclone data into a single source for dissemination. With this dataset, a global examination of changes in tropical cyclone frequency and intensity can be performed. Caveats apply to any historical tropical cyclone analysis however, as the data contributed to the IBTrACS archive from various tropical cyclone warning centers is still replete with biases that may stem from operational changes, inhomogeneous monitoring programs, and time discontinuities. A detailed discussion of the difficulties in detecting trends using tropical cyclone data can be found in Landsea et al. 2006. The following sections use the IBTrACS dataset to show the global spatial variability of tropical cyclone frequency and intensity. Analyses will show where the strongest storms typically occur, the regions with the highest number of tropical cyclones per decade, and the locations of highest average maximum wind speeds. (PDF contains 3 pages)

The intensity distributions of collected signals in coherent anti-Stokes Raman scattering microscopy

Coherent anti-Stokes Raman scattering (CARS) microscopy with the combining of confocal and CARS techniques is a remarkable alternative for imaging chemical or biological specimens that neither fluoresce nor tolerate labeling. The CARS is a nonlinear optical process, the imaging properties of CARS microscopy will be very different from the conventional confocal microscopy. In this paper, we calculated the propagation of CARS signals by using the wave equation in medium and the slowly varying envelope approximation (SVEA), and find that the intensity angular distributions vary considerably with the different experimental configurations and the different specimen shapes. So the conventional description of microscopy (e.g.. the point spread function) will fail to descript the imaging properties of CARS microscopy. (c) 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Electron quantum path tuning and isolated attosecond pulse emission driven by a waveform-controlled multi-cycle laser field

We investigate high-order harmonic emission and isolated attosecond pulse (IAP) generation in atoms driven by a two-colour multi-cycle laser field consisting of an 800 nm pulse and an infrared laser pulse at an arbitrary wavelength. With moderate laser intensity, an IAP of similar to 220 as can be generated in helium atoms by using two-colour laser pulses of 35 fs/800 nm and 46 fs/1150 nm. The discussion based on the three-step semiclassical model, and time-frequency analysis shows a clear picture of the high-order harmonic generation in the waveform-controlled laser field which is of benefit to the generation of XUV IAP and attosecond electron pulses. When the propagation effect is included, the duration of the IAP can be shorter than 200 as, when the driving laser pulses are focused 1 mm before the gas medium with a length between 1.5 mm and 2 mm.

Laser intensity dependence of high-order harmonic generation from aligned CO2 molecules

We investigate experimentally the high-order harmonic generation from aligned CO2 molecules and demonstrate that the modulation inversion of the harmonic yield with respect to molecular alignment can be altered dramatically by fine-tuning the intensity of the driving laser pulse for harmonic generation. The results can be modeled by employing the strong field approximation including a ground state depletion factor. The laser intensity is thus proved to be a parameter that can control the high-harmonic emission from aligned molecules.