Threshold detection: matching statistical methodology to ecological questions and conservation planning objectives

Two types of ecological thresholds are now being widely used to develop conservation targets: breakpoint-based thresholds represent tipping points where system properties change dramatically, whereas classification thresholds identify groups of data points with contrasting properties. Both breakpoint-based and classification thresholds are useful tools in evidence-based conservation. However, it is critical that the type of threshold to be estimated corresponds with the question of interest and that appropriate statistical procedures are used to determine its location. On the basis of their statistical properties, we recommend using piecewise regression methods to identify breakpoint-based thresholds and discriminant analysis or classification and regression trees to identify classification thresholds.

Accumulated metal speciation in earthworm populations with multi-generational exposure to metalliferous soils: cell fractionation and high energy synchrotron analyses

Predicting metal bioaccumulation and toxicity in soil organisms is complicated by site-specific biotic and abiotic parameters. In this study we exploited tissue fractionation and digestion techniques, combined with X-ray absorption spectroscopy (XAS), to investigate the whole-body and subcellular distributions, ligand affinities, and coordination chemistry of accumulated Pb and Zn in field populations of the epigeic earthworm Lumbricus rubellus inhabiting three contrasting metalliferous and two unpolluted soils. Our main findings were (i) earthworms were resident in soils with concentrations of Pb and Zn ranging from 1200 to 27 000 mg kg(-1) and 200 to 34 000 mg kg(-1), respectively; (ii) Pb and Zn primarily accumulated in the posterior alimentary canal in nonsoluble subcellular fractions of earthworms; (iii) site-specific differences in the tissue and subcellular partitioning profiles of populations were observed, with earthworms from a calcareous site partitioning proportionally more Pb to their anterior body segments and Zn to the chloragosome-rich subcellular fraction than their acidic-soil inhabiting counterparts; (iv) XAS indicated that the interpopulation differences in metal partitioning between organs were not accompanied by qualitative differences in ligand-binding speciation, because crystalline phosphate-containing pyromorphite was a predominant chemical species in the whole-worm tissues of all mine soil residents. Differences in metal (Pb, Zn) partitioning at both organ and cellular levels displayed by field populations with protracted histories of metal exposures may reflect their innate ecophysiological responses to essential edaphic variables, such as Ca2+ status. These observations are highly significant in the challenging exercise of interpreting holistic biomarker data delivered by "omic" technologies.

Does speciation impact on Cu uptake by, and toxicity to, the earthworm Eisenia fetida?

Eisenia fetida were exposed to different concentrations (0.009, 0.049 and 0. 125 mg L-1) of Cu in an aqueous medium. Cu speciation was manipulated through the addition of different concentrations (0. 15, 0.35 and 50 mg L-1) of EDTA. Cu speciation (as labile and non-labile pools) was determined using Differential Pulse Anodic Stripping Voltammetry. Labile Cu includes free Cu ions together with weak inorganic Cu complexes and a small fraction of easily dissociable organic complexes. Metal uptake and earthworm mortality increased with total Cu concentration in the EDTA free solutions. In the presence of EDTA both metal uptake and mortality decreased. These experiments demonstrate that Cu speciation governs uptake and consequent toxicity of Cu to E. fetida. (c) 2007 Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.

Development of a methodology to investigate the importance of chemical speciation on the bioavailability of contaminants to Eisenia andrei

The uptake of metals by earthworms occurs predominantly via the soil pore water, or via an uptake route which is related to the soil pore water metal concentration. However, it has been suggested that the speciation of the metal is also important. A novel technique is described which exposes Eisenia andrei Bouche to contaminant bearing solutions in which the chemical factors affecting its speciation may be individually and systematically manipulated. In a preliminary experiment, the LC50 for copper nitrate was 0.046 mg l(-1) (95 % confidence intervals: 0.03 and 0.07 mg l(-1)). There was a significant positive correlation between earthworm mortality and bulk copper concentration in solution (R-2 = 0.88, P less than or equal to 0.001), and a significant positive increase in earthworm tissue copper concentration with increasing copper concentration in solution (R-2 = 0.97, P less than or equal to 0.001). It is anticipated that quantifying the effect of soil solution chemical speciation on copper bioavailability will provide an excellent aid to understanding the importance of chemical composition and the speciation of metals, in the calculation of toxicological parameters.

Land use for England and Wales: evaluation of management options to support 'good ecological status' in surface freshwaters

This paper analyses historic records of agricultural land use and management for England and Wales from 1931 and 1991 and uses export coefficient modelling to hindcast the impact of these practices on the rates of diffuse nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) export to water bodies for each of the major geo-climatic regions of England and Wales. Key trends indicate the importance of animal agriculture as a contributor to the total diffuse agricultural nutrient loading on waters, and the need to bring these sources under control if conditions suitable for sustaining 'Good Ecological Status' under the Water Framework Directive are to be generated. The analysis highlights the importance of measuring changes in nutrient loading in relation to the catchment-specific baseline state for different water bodies. The approach is also used to forecast the likely impact of broad regional scale scenarios on nutrient export to waters and highlights the need to take sensitive land out of production, introduce ceilings on fertilizer use and stocking densities, and controls on agricultural practice in higher risk areas where intensive agriculture is combined with a low intrinsic nutrient retention capacity, although the uncertainties associated with the modelling applied at this scale should be taken into account in the interpretation of model output. The paper advocates the need for a two-tiered approach to nutrient management, combining broad regional policies with targeted management in high risk areas at the catchment and farm scale.

Selenium persistency and speciation in the tissues of lambs following the withdrawal of dietary high-dose selenium-enriched yeast

The objective was to determine the concentration of total selenium (Se) and the proportion of total Se comprised as selenomethionine (SeMet) and selenocysteine (SeCys) in post mortem tissues of lambs in the six weeks period following the withdrawal of a diet containing high dose selenized yeast (SY), derived from a specific strain of Saccharomyces cerevisae CNCM (Collection Nationale de Culture de Micro-organism) I-3060. Thirty Texel x Suffolk lambs used in this study had previously received diets (91 days) containing either high dose SY (HSY; 6.30 mg Se/kg DM) or an unsupplemented control (C; 0.13 mg Se/kg DM). Following the period of supplementation all lambs were then offered a complete pelleted diet, without additional Se (0.15 mg Se/kg DM), for 42 days. At enrollment and 21 and 42 days later, five lambs from each treatment were blood sampled, euthanased and samples of heart, liver, kidney and skeletal muscle (Longissimus Dorsi and Psoas Major) tissue were retained. Total Se concentration in whole blood and tissues was significantly (P < 0.001) higher in HSY lambs at all time points that had previously received long term exposure to high dietary concentrations of SY. The distribution of total Se and the proportions of total Se comprised as SeMet and SeCys differed between tissues, treatment and time points. Total Se was greatest in HSY liver and kidney (22.64 and 18.96 mg Se/kg DM, respectively) and SeCys comprised the greatest proportion of total Se. Conversely, cardiac and skeletal muscle (Longissimus Dorsi and Psoas Major) tissues had lower total Se concentration (10.80, 7.02 and 7.82 mg Se/kg DM, respectively) and SeMet was the predominant selenized amino acid. Rates of Se clearance in HSY liver (307 µg Se/day) and kidney (238 µg Se/day) were higher compared with HSY cardiac tissue (120 µg Se/day) and skeletal muscle (20 µg Se/day). In conclusion differences in Se clearance rates were different between tissue types, reflecting the relative metabolic activity of each tissue, and appear to be dependant upon the proportions of total Se comprised as either SeMet or SeCys.

Selenium supplementation of lactating dairy cows: effects on milk production and total selenium content and speciation in blood, milk and cheese

Forty-multiparous Holstein cows were used in a 16-wk continuous design study to determine the effects of either selenium (Se) source, selenized yeast (SY) (derived from a specific strain of Saccharomyces cerevisiae CNCM I-3060 Sel-Plex®) or sodium selenite (SS), or inclusion rate of SY on Se concentration and speciation in blood, milk and cheese. Cows received ad libitum a TMR with 1:1 forage:concentrate ratio on a dry matter (DM) basis. There were four diets (T1-T4) which differed only in either source or dose of Se additive. Estimated total dietary Se for T1 (no supplement), T2 (SS), T3 (SY) and T4 (SY) was 0.16, 0.30, 0.30 and 0.45 mg/kg DM, respectively. Blood and milk samples were taken at 28 day intervals and at each time point there were positive linear effects of SY on Se concentration in blood and milk. At day 112 blood and milk Se values for T1-T4 were 177, 208, 248, 279 ± 6.6 and 24, 38, 57, 72 ± 3.7 ng/g fresh material, respectively and indicate improved uptake and incorporation of Se from SY. While selenocysteine (SeCys) was the main selenised amino acid in blood its concentration was not markedly affected by treatment, but the proportion of total Se as selenomethionine (SeMet) increased with increasing inclusion rate of SY. In milk, there were no marked treatment effects on SeCys content, but Se source had a marked effect on the proportion of total Se as SeMet. At day 112 replacing SS (T2) with SY (T3) increased the SeMet concentration of milk from 36 to 111 ng Se/g and its concentration increased further to 157 ng Se/g as the inclusion rate of SY increased further (T4) to provide 0.45 mg Se/kg TMR. Neither Se source nor inclusion rate effected the keeping quality of milk. At day 112, milk from T1, T2, and T3 was made into a hard cheese and Se source had a marked effect on total Se and the proportion of total Se comprised as either SeMet or SeCys. Replacing SS (T2) with SY (T3) increased total Se, SeMet and SeCys content from 180 to 340 ng Se/g, 57 to 153 ng Se/g and 52 to 92 ng Se/g, respectively. Key words: dairy cow, milk and cheese, selenomethionine, selenocysteine, milk keeping quality

Ecological and life-history traits predict bee species responses to environmental disturbances

The ability to predict the responses of ecological communities and individual species to human-induced environmental change remains a key issue for ecologists and conservation managers alike. Responses are often variable among species within groups making general predictions difficult. One option is to include ecological trait information that might help to disentangle patterns of response and also provide greater understanding of how particular traits link whole clades to their environment. Although this ‘‘trait-guild” approach has been used for single disturbances, the importance of particular traits on general responses to multiple disturbances has not been explored. We used a mixed model analysis of 19 data sets from throughout the world to test the effect of ecological and life-history traits on the responses of bee species to different types of anthropogenic environmental change. These changes included habitat loss, fragmentation, agricultural intensification, pesticides and fire. Individual traits significantly affected bee species responses to different disturbances and several traits were broadly predictive among multiple disturbances. The location of nests – above vs. below ground – significantly affected response to habitat loss, agricultural intensification, tillage regime (within agriculture) and fire. Species that nested above ground were on average more negatively affected by isolation from natural habitat and intensive agricultural land use than were species nesting below ground. In contrast below-ground-nesting species were more negatively affected by tilling than were above-ground nesters. The response of different nesting guilds to fire depended on the time since the burn. Social bee species were more strongly affected by isolation from natural habitat and pesticides than were solitary bee species. Surprisingly, body size did not consistently affect species responses, despite its importance in determining many aspects of individuals’ interaction with their environment. Although synergistic interactions among traits remain to be explored, individual traits can be useful in predicting and understanding responses of related species to global change.

Managing invasive alien species with professional and hobby farmers: insights from ecological-economic modelling

Biosecurity is a great challenge to policy-makers globally. Biosecurity policies aim to either prevent invasions before they occur or to eradicate and/or effectively manage the invasive species and diseases once an invasion has occurred. Such policies have traditionally been directed towards professional producers in natural resource based sectors, including agriculture. Given the wide scope of issues threatened by invasive species and diseases, it is important to account for several types of stakeholders that are involved. We investigate the problem of an invasive insect pest feeding on an agricultural crop with heterogeneous producers: profit-oriented professional farmers and utility-oriented hobby farmers. We start from an ecological-economic model conceptually similar to the one developed by Eiswerth and Johnson [Eiswerth, M.E. and Johnson, W.S., 2002. Managing nonindigenous invasive species: insights from dynamic analysis. Environmental and Resource Economics 23, 319-342.] and extend it in three ways. First, we make explicit the relationship between the invaded state carrying capacity and farmers' planting decisions. Second, we add another producer type into the framework and hence account for the existence of both professional and hobby fanners. Third, we provide a theoretical contribution by discussing two alternative types of equilibria. We also apply the model to an empirical case to extract a number of stylised facts and in particular to assess: a) under which circumstances the invasion is likely to be not controllable; and b) how extending control policies to hobby farmers could affect both types of producers. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Ecological specificity of arbuscular mycorrhizae: evidence from foliar- and seed-feeding insects

Arbuscular mycorrhizal (AM) fungi have a variety of effects on foliar-feeding insects, with the majority of these being positive, although reports of negative and null effects also exist. Virtually all previous experiments have used mobile insects confined in cages and have studied the effects of one, or at most two, species of mycorrhizae on one species of insect. The purpose of this study was to introduce a greater level of realism into insect-mycorrhizal experiments, by studying the responses of different insect feeding guilds to a variety of AM fungi. We conducted two experiments involving three species of relatively immobile insects (a leaf-mining and two seed-feeding flies) reared in natural conditions on a host (Leucanthemum vulgare). In a field study, natural levels of AM colonization were reduced, while in a phytometer trial, we experimentally colonized host plants with all possible combinations of three known mycorrhizal associates of L. vulgare. In general, AM fungi increased the stature (height and leaf number) and nitrogen content of plants. However, these effects changed through the season and were,dependent on the identity of the fungi in the root system. AM fungi increased host acceptance of all three insects and larval performance of the leaf miner, but these effects were also season- and AM species-dependent. We suggest that the mycorrhizal effect on the performance of the leaf miner is due to fungal-induced changes in host-plant nitrogen content, detected by the adult fly. However, variability in the effect was apparent, because not all AM species increased plant N content. Meanwhile, positive effects of mycorrhizae were found on flower number and flower size, and these appeared to result in enhanced infestation levels by the seed-feeding insects. The results show that AM fungi exhibit ecological specificity, in that different. species have different effects on host-plant growth and chemistry and the performance of foliar-feeding insects. Future studies need to conduct experiments that use ecologically realistic combinations of plants and fungi and allow insects to be reared in natural conditions.

Managing threatened species – the ecological toolbox, evolutionary theory and the declining-population paradigm

1. The management of threatened species is an important practical way in which conservationists can intervene in the extinction process and reduce the loss of biodiversity. Understanding the causes of population declines (past, present and future) is pivotal to designing effective practical management. This is the declining-population paradigm identified by Caughley. 2. There are three broad classes of ecological tool used by conservationists to guide management decisions for threatened species: statistical models of habitat use, demographic models and behaviour-based models. Each of these is described here, illustrated with a case study and evaluated critically in terms of its practical application. 3. These tools are fundamentally different. Statistical models of habitat use and demographic models both use descriptions of patterns in abundance and demography, in relation to a range of factors, to inform management decisions. In contrast, behaviourbased models describe the evolutionary processes underlying these patterns, and derive such patterns from the strategies employed by individuals when competing for resources under a specific set of environmental conditions. 4. Statistical models of habitat use and demographic models have been used successfully to make management recommendations for declining populations. To do this, assumptions are made about population growth or vital rates that will apply when environmental conditions are restored, based on either past data collected under favourable environmental conditions or estimates of these parameters when the agent of decline is removed. As a result, they can only be used to make reliable quantitative predictions about future environments when a comparable environment has been experienced by the population of interest in the past. 5. Many future changes in the environment driven by management will not have been experienced by a population in the past. Under these circumstances, vital rates and their relationship with population density will change in the future in a way that is not predictable from past patterns. Reliable quantitative predictions about population-level responses then need to be based on an explicit consideration of the evolutionary processes operating at the individual level. 6. Synthesis and applications. It is argued that evolutionary theory underpins Caughley’s declining-population paradigm, and that it needs to become much more widely used within mainstream conservation biology. This will help conservationists examine critically the reliability of the tools they have traditionally used to aid management decision-making. It will also give them access to alternative tools, particularly when predictions are required for changes in the environment that have not been experienced by a population in the past.