The impact of social security reform on occupational and retirement behavior : a quantitative assessment for Brazil

Population ageing is a problem that countries will have to cope with within a few years. How would changes in the social security system affect individual behaviour? We develop a multi-sectoral life-cycle model with both retirement and occupational choices to evaluate what are the macroeconomic impacts of social security reforms. We calibrate the model to match 2011 Brazilian economy and perform a counterfactual exercise of the long-run impacts of a recently adopted reform. In 2013, the Brazilian government approximated the two segregated social security schemes, imposing a ceiling on public pensions. In the benchmark equilibrium, our modelling economy is able to reproduce the early retirement claiming, the agents' stationary distribution among sectors, as well as the social security deficit and the public job application decision. In the counterfactual exercise, we find a significant reduction of 55\% in the social security deficit, an increase of 1.94\% in capital-to-output ratio, with both output and capital growing, a delay in retirement claims of public workers and a modification in the structure of agents applying to the public sector job.

Essays on health care reform, wealth inequality, and demography

This thesis contains three chapters. The first chapter uses a general equilibrium framework to simulate and compare the long run effects of the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act (PPACA) and of health care costs reduction policies on macroeconomic variables, government budget, and welfare of individuals. We found that all policies were able to reduce uninsured population, with the PPACA being more effective than cost reductions. The PPACA increased public deficit mainly due to the Medicaid expansion, forcing tax hikes. On the other hand, cost reductions alleviated the fiscal burden of public insurance, reducing public deficit and taxes. Regarding welfare effects, the PPACA as a whole and cost reductions are welfare improving. High welfare gains would be achieved if the U.S. medical costs followed the same trend of OECD countries. Besides, feasible cost reductions are more welfare improving than most of the PPACA components, proving to be a good alternative. The second chapter documents that life cycle general equilibrium models with heterogeneous agents have a very hard time reproducing the American wealth distribution. A common assumption made in this literature is that all young adults enter the economy with no initial assets. In this chapter, we relax this assumption – not supported by the data – and evaluate the ability of an otherwise standard life cycle model to account for the U.S. wealth inequality. The new feature of the model is that agents enter the economy with assets drawn from an initial distribution of assets. We found that heterogeneity with respect to initial wealth is key for this class of models to replicate the data. According to our results, American inequality can be explained almost entirely by the fact that some individuals are lucky enough to be born into wealth, while others are born with few or no assets. The third chapter documents that a common assumption adopted in life cycle general equilibrium models is that the population is stable at steady state, that is, its relative age distribution becomes constant over time. An open question is whether the demographic assumptions commonly adopted in these models in fact imply that the population becomes stable. In this chapter we prove the existence of a stable population in a demographic environment where both the age-specific mortality rates and the population growth rate are constant over time, the setup commonly adopted in life cycle general equilibrium models. Hence, the stability of the population do not need to be taken as assumption in these models.

Land reform in NE Brazil: a stochastic frontier production efficiency evaluation

O objetivo desse artigo é caracterizar as fontes da ineficiência técnica e alocativa em um conjunto de 308 beneficiários de um programa de reforma agrária de mercado, chamado Cédula da Terra;, distribuídos em cinco estados do Nordeste brasileiro. Estudos conduzidos por Buainain et al. (2002) mostraram existem poucas diferenças entre as características de beneficiários deste programa e dos programas tradicionais de reforma agrária por expropriação e que portanto, os resultados obtidos por este trabalho permitem visualizar as dificuldades enfrentadas pelos assentamentos no Brasil. Para medir eficiência, estimou-se uma função de produção potencial segundo a metodologia de Battese e Coelli (1995) e a partir disto, procurou-se explicar as razões da ineficiência (relativa) encontrada. Os resultados apontam para a existência de ineficiência técnica e alocativa que é identificada principalmente nas situações em que a presença de produção para consumo é elevada. Tratase de um resultado que revela a pouca maturidade da maioria dos lotes dos assentados do PCT e a dificuldade de superar as limitações impostas pela condição inicial de formação dos assentamentos de reforma agrária, principalmente na região nordeste do Brasil.

Legitimacy and context: Implications for public sector reform in developing countries

This article examines the interplay between legitimacy and context as key determinants of public sector reform outcomes. Despite the importance of variables Such as legitimacy of public institutions, levels of civic morality and socio-economic realities, reform strategies often fail to take such contextual factors into account. The article examines, first, relevant literature both conceptual and empirical, including data from the World Values Survey project. It is argued that developing countries have distinctive characteristics which require particular reform strategies. The data analysed shows that in Latin American countries, there is no clear Correlation between confidence in public institutions and civic morality. Other empirical studies show that unemployment has a negative impact on the level of civic morality, while inequality engenders corruption. This suggests that poorer and socio-economically stratified countries face greater reform challenges owing to the lack of legitimacy of public institutions. The article concludes that reforms should focus on areas of governance that impact on poverty. This will in turn help produce more stable outcomes. Copyright (C) 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

The distribution of agricultural land and the question of agrarian reform in Brazil

Agrarian reform has long been an acute issue in Brazil, where the distribution of cultivable land is extremely unequal. The Land Statute adopted by the military in 1964 constituted a genuine reform programme, which, however, was never implemented as the government chose to modernize agriculture and expand cultivated areas. This has prevented the poorest from having access to the land.-from English summary

Decentralization and reform in Latin America: improving intergovernmental relations

Includes bibliography

A broad agenda for international financial reform

Includes bibliography

Investment and economic reform in Latin America

Includes bibliography

Fiscal Panorama of Latin America and the Caribbean 2013: tax reform and renewal of the fiscal covenant

Includes bibliography

Tax performance and reform in the Organization of Eastern Caribbean States (OECS)

Includes bibliography

Foreign investment in Mexico after economic reform

Includes bibliography

Pension reform in Europe in the 90's and lessons for Latin America

Includes bibliography

Inclusion of the European Nordic model in the debate concerning social protection reform: the long-term development of Nordic welfare systems (1890-2005) and their transferability to Latin America in the twenty-first century

Includes bibliography

The Latin American experience in pension system reform: coverage, fiscal issues and possible implications for China

Includes bibliography