Turkey and the Kurdish problem; new approaches in the face of the Middle East crises. Point of View No. 30, February 2013

From the Introduction. For almost a hundred years (since World War I and the disintegration of the Ottoman Empire) stability – or rather, the permanent threat to stability – has been a key challenge for the Middle East. One of the central elements of this threat has been the so-called Kurdish problem, that is, the issues that continually arise between the states of the region and the Kurdish minority living in the area, as well as the tensions among the individual states caused by a range of issues related to local Kurds. The country most affected by the Kurdish problem is Turkey.

The Mirage of the State: Why the West has failed in Afghanistan, Iraq, Libya, Mali and Central African Republic? Jean Monnet/Robert Schuman Paper Series Vol. 14 No. 15, July 2014

The state still matters. However, the members of the Euro-Atlantic community may be misinterpreting this crucial baseline prior launching their military interventions since 2001. The latest violence and collapse of the state of Iraq after the invasion of Northern Iraq by a radical Sunni Muslim terrorist group, so-called Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS), demonstrate once again the centrality and requirement of a functioning state in order to maintain violent forces to disrupt domestic and regional stability. Since 2001, the US and its European allies have waged wars against failed-states in order to increase this security and national interests, and then have been involved in some type of state-building.1 This has been the case in Afghanistan, Iraq, Libya, Mali, and Central African Republic (CAR). France went into Mali (2012) and CAR (2013), which preceded two European Union military and civilian Common Security and Defense Policy missions (CSDP), in order to avoid the collapse of these two states. The threat of the collapse of both states was a concern for the members of the Euro-Atlantic community as it could have spread to the region and causing even greater instabilities. In Mali, the country was under radical Islamic pressures coming from the North after the collapse of Libya ensuing the 2011 Western intervention, while in CAR it was mainly an ethno-religious crisis. Failed states are a real concern, as they can rapidly become training grounds for radical groups and permitting all types of smuggling and trafficking.2 In Mali, France wanted to protect its large French population and avoid the fall of Mali in the hands of radical Islamic groups directly or indirectly linked to Al-Qaeda. A fallen Mali could have destabilized the region of the Sahel and ultimately affected the stability of Southern European borders. France wanted to avoid the development of a safe haven across the Sahel where movements of people and goods are uncontrolled and illegal.3 Since the end of the Cold War, Western powers have been involved in stabilizing neighborhoods and regions, like the Balkans, Africa, and Middle East, which at the exceptions of the Balkans, have led to failed policies. 9/11 changes everything. The US, under President George W. Bush, started to wage war against terrorism and all states link to it. This started a period of continuous Western interventions in this post-9/11 era in Afghanistan, Iraq, Libya, Mali and CAR. If history has demonstrated one thing, the members of the Euro-Atlantic community are struggling and will continue to struggle to stabilize Afghanistan, Iraq, Libya, Mali and Central African Republic (CAR) for one simple reason: no clear endgame. Is it the creation of a state à la Westphalian in order to permit these states to operate as the sole guarantor of security? Or is the reestablishment of status quo in these countries permitting to exit and end Western operations? This article seeks to analyze Western interventions in these five countries in order to reflect on the concept of the state and the erroneous starting point for each intervention.4 In the first part, the political status of each country is analyzed in order to understand the internal and regional crisis. In a second time, the concept of the state, framed into the Buzanian trinity, is discussed and applied to the cases. In the last part the European and American civilian-military doctrines are examined in accordance with their latest military interventions and in their broader spectrum.

Dissolved organic carbon in sediments of the central Arctic Ocean collected during POLARSTERN cruise ARK-XXVII/3 from August-September 2012

Marine organic matter (OM) sinks from surface waters to the seafloor via the biological pump. Benthic communities, which use this sedimented OM as energy and carbon source, produce dissolved organic matter (DOM) in the process of remineralization, enriching the sediment porewater with fresh DOM compounds. We hypothesized that in the oligotrophic deep Arctic basin the molecular signal of freshly deposited primary produced OM is restricted to the surface sediment pore waters which should differ from bottom water and deeper sediment pore water in DOM composition. This study focused on: 1) the molecular composition of the DOM in sediment pore waters of the deep Eurasian Arctic basins, 2) whether the signal of marine vs. terrigenous DOM is represented by different compounds preserved in the sediment pore waters and 3) whether there is any relation between Arctic Ocean ice cover and DOM composition. Molecular data, obtained via 15 Tesla Fourier transform ion cyclotron resonance mass spectrometer, were correlated with environmental parameters by partial least square analysis. The fresher marine detrital OM signal from surface waters was limited to pore waters from < 5 cm sediment depth. The productive ice margin stations showed higher abundances of peptides, unsaturated aliphatics and saturated fatty acids formulae, indicative of fresh OM/pigments deposition, compared to northernmost stations which had stronger aromatic signals. This study contributes to the understanding of the coupling between the Arctic Ocean productivity and its depositional regime, and how it will be altered in response to sea ice retreat and increasing river runoff.

Eolian and silica deposition of ODP sites in the central North Pacific

Sediments recovered at Ocean Drilling Program Sites 885/886 (central North Pacific Ocean at 44°41'N, 168°14'W and 44°41'N, 168°16'W, respectively) record eolian deposition during the Cenozoic and late Mesozoic. We constructed a record of eolian MAR, which is a proxy for aridity/humidity of the climate in the continental source area. Eolian fluxes are low during the Late Cretaceous through Eocene, reflecting humid conditions in the source area. During the Oligocene, more arid climates prevailed at the source area, as indicated by increased eolian accumulation. The "Diatom Dump", an interval of enhanced silica deposition mainly apparent in the northwest Pacific, is reflected in the record at Sites 885/886 by two- to fivefold higher opal fluxes compared with younger and older sediments. Increased eolian deposition starting at 3.5 Ma and culminating at 2-2.6 Ma are coincident with the onset of Northern Hemisphere glaciation. Sites 885/886 lie 10° north of sites examined previously for the history of eolian deposition in the central North Pacific and therefore allow enhanced understanding of the latitudinal variation of the wind system.

Sea surface temperatures derived from alkenones from Late Quaternary sediments of the East Equatorial South Atlantic

Angola Basin and Walvis Ridge records of past sea surface temperatures (SST) derived from the alkenone Uk 37 index are used to reconstruct the surface circulation in the east equatorial South Atlantic for the last 200,000 years. Comparison of SST estimates from surface sediments between 5° and 20°S with modern SST data suggests that the alkenone temperatures represent annual mean values of the surface mixed layer. Alkenone-derived temperatures for the warm climatic maxima of the Holocene and the penultimate interglacial are 1 to 4°C higher than latest Holocene values. All records show glacial to interglacial differences of about 3.5°C in annual mean SST, which is about 1.5°C greater than the difference estimated by CLIMAP (1981) for the eastern Angola Basin. At the Walvis Ridge, significant SST variance is observed at all of the Earth's orbital periodicities. SST records from the Angola Basin vary predominantly at 23- and 100-kyr periodicities. For the precessional cycle, SST changes at the Walvis Ridge correspond to variations of boreal summer insolation over Africa and lead ice volume changes, suggesting that the east equatorial South Atlantic is sensitive to African monsoon intensity via trade-wind zonality. Angola Basin SST records lag those from the Walvis Ridge and the equatorial Atlantic by about 3 kyr. The comparison of Angola Basin and Walvis Ridge SST records implies that the Angola-Benguela Front (ABF) (currently at about 14-16°S) has remained fairly stationary between 12° and 20°S (the limits of our cores) during the last two glacial-interglacial cycles. The temperature contrast associated with the ABF exhibits a periodic 23-kyr variability which is coherent with changes in boreal summer insolation over Africa. These observations suggest that surface waters north of the present ABF have not directly responded to monsoon-modulated changes in the trade-wind vector, that the central field of zonally directed trades in the southern hemisphere was not shifted or extended northward by several degrees of latitude during glacials, and that a cyclonic gyre circulation has existed in the east equatorial South Atlantic over the last 200,000 years. This scenario contradicts former assumptions of glacial intensification of the Benguela Current into the eastern Angola Basin and increased coastal upwelling off Angola.

Holocene flood frequency across the Central Alps

The frequency of large-scale heavy precipitation events in the European Alps is expected to undergo substantial changes with current climate change. Hence, knowledge about the past natural variability of floods caused by heavy precipitation constitutes important input for climate projections. We present a comprehensive Holocene (10,000 years) reconstruction of the flood frequency in the Central European Alps combining 15 lacustrine sediment records. These records provide an extensive catalog of flood deposits, which were generated by flood-induced underflows delivering terrestrial material to the lake floors. The multi-archive approach allows suppressing local weather patterns, such as thunderstorms, from the obtained climate signal. We reconstructed mainly late spring to fall events since ice cover and precipitation in form of snow in winter at high-altitude study sites do inhibit the generation of flood layers. We found that flood frequency was higher during cool periods, coinciding with lows in solar activity. In addition, flood occurrence shows periodicities that are also observed in reconstructions of solar activity from 14C and 10Be records (2500-3000, 900-1200, as well as of about 710, 500, 350, 208 (Suess cycle), 150, 104 and 87 (Gleissberg cycle) years). As atmospheric mechanism, we propose an expansion/shrinking of the Hadley cell with increasing/decreasing air temperature, causing dry/wet conditions in Central Europe during phases of high/low solar activity. Furthermore, differences between the flood patterns from the Northern Alps and the Southern Alps indicate changes in North Atlantic circulation. Enhanced flood occurrence in the South compared to the North suggests a pronounced southward position of the Westerlies and/or blocking over the northern North Atlantic, hence resembling a negative NAO state (most distinct from 4.2 to 2.4 kyr BP and during the Little Ice Age). South-Alpine flood activity therefore provides a qualitative record of variations in a paleo-NAO pattern during the Holocene. Additionally, increased South Alpine flood activity contrasts to low precipitation in tropical Central America (Cariaco Basin) on the Holocene and centennial time scale. This observation is consistent with a Holocene southward migration of the Atlantic circulation system, and hence of the ITCZ, driven by decreasing summer insolation in the Northern hemisphere, as well as with shorter-term fluctuations probably driven by solar activity.

SHRIMP U-Pb dating of high-grade migmatites and related magmatites from Northwestern Oates Land, East Antarctica

High- to very-high-grade migmatitic basement rocks of the Wilson Hills area in northwestern Oates Land (Antarctica) form part of a low-pressure high-temperature belt located at the western inboard side of the Ross-orogenic Wilson Terrane. Zircon, and in part monazite, from four very-high grade migmatites (migmatitic gneisses to diatexites) and zircon from two undeformed granitic dykes from a central granulite-facies zone of the basement complex were dated by the SHRIMP U-Pb method in order to constrain the timing of metamorphic and related igneous processes and to identify possible age inheritance. Monazite from two migmatites yielded within error identical ages of 499 +/- 10 Ma and 493 +/- 9 Ma. Coexisting zircon gave ages of 500 +/- 4 Ma and 484 +/- 5 Ma for a metatexite (two age populations) and 475 +/- 4 Ma for a diatexite. Zircon populations from a migmatitic gneiss and a posttectonic granitic dyke yielded well-defined ages of 488 +/- 6 Ma and 482 +/- 4 Ma, respectively. There is only minor evidence of age inheritance in zircons of these four samples. Zircon from two other samples (metatexite, posttectonic granitic dyke) gave scattered 206Pb-238U ages. While there is a component similar in age and in low Th/U ratio to those of the other samples, inherited components with ages up to c. 3 Ga predominate. In the metatexite, a major detrital contribution from 545 - 680 Ma old source rocks can be identified. The new age data support the model that granulite- to high-amphibolite-facies metamorphism and related igneous processes in basement rocks of northwestern Oates Land were confined to a relatively short period of time of Late Cambrian to early Ordovican age. An age of approximately 500 Ma is estimated for the Ross-orogenic granulite-facies metamorphism from consistent ages of monazite from two migmatites and of the older zircon age population in one metatexite. The variably younger zircon ages are interpreted to reflect mineral formation in the course of the post-granulite-facies metamorphic evolution, which led to a widespread high-amphibolite-facies retrogression and in part late-stage formation of ms+bi assemblages in the basement rocks and which lasted until about 465 Ma. The presence of inherited zircon components of latest Neoproterozoic to Cambrian age indicates that the high- to very-grade migmatitic basement in northwestern Oates Land originated from clastic series of Cambrian age and, therefore, may well represent the deeper-crustal equivalent of lower-grade metasedimentary series of the Wilson Terrane.

Abyssal community analysis from replicate box cores in the central North Pacific

A 0.25 m**2 United States Naval Electronics Laboratory box corer was used to take replicate samples from an oligotrophic bottom under the North Pacific Central Water Mass (~28°N, 155°W). The bottom is a red clay with manganese nodules at a depth of 5500-5800 m. Macrofaunal density ranges from 84 to 160 individuals per m**2 and is therefore much the same as in Northwest Atlantic Gyre waters. Of the macrofaunal taxa, polychaetes dominate (55 %), followed by tanaids (18 %), bivalves (7 %), and isopods (6 %). Meiofaunal taxa were only partially retained by the 297 µm screen used in washing. Even then, they are 1.5-3.9 times as abundant as the macrofaunal taxa, with nematodes being numerically dominant by far. Foraminifera seem to comprise an important portion of the community, but could not be assessed accurately because of the inability to discriminate living and dead tests. Remains of what are probably xenophyophoridans are also very important, but offer the same problem. Faunal diversity is extremely high, with deposit feeders comprising the overwhelming majority. Most species are rare, being encountered only once. The distributions of only three species show any significant deviation from randomness. The polychaete fauna from box cores collected from 90 miles to the north was not significantly different from that of the principal study locality. Concordance appeared at several taxonomic levels, from species through macrofaunal/meiofaunal relationships. As a result, the variation in total animal abundance shows aggregation among cores. We discuss Sokolova's concept of a deep-sea oligotrophic zone dominated by suspension feeders, and reconcile it with our present findings. The high diversity of the fauna combined with the low food level contradict theories that relate diversity directly with productivity.

(Table 1) Carbohydrates in different sediment types of the Central Pacific

Total contents of carbohydrates were determined in samples of natural sediments of various genetic types. Analyses were made on board. Deep-sea pelagic sediments (red clays of various types including zeolite clays, and also radiolarian and carbonate oozes) were the main types of sediments studied. Contents of carbohydrates in pelagic oozes of the Central Pacific ranged from 214 to 1605 ppm, averaging 602 ppm of air-dried sediment. Organic matter of the group studied is a diagenetically stable complex, with polysaccharides apparently predominating.

Activity and biomass of small benthic biota in the central Arctic Ocean

Sediment samples collected during the expedition "Arctic Ocean '96" with the Swedish ice-breaker ODEN were investigated to estimate for the first time heterotrophic activity and total microbial biomass (size range from bacteria to small metazoans) from the perennially ice-covered central Arctic Ocean. Benthic activities and biomass were evaluated analysing a series of biogenic sediment compounds (i.e. bacterial exoenzymes, total adenylates, DNA, phospholipids, particulate proteins). In contrast to the very time-consuming sorting, enumeration and weight determination, analyses of biochemical sediment parameters may represent a useful method for obtaining rapid information on the ecological situation in a given benthic system. Bacterial cell numbers and biomass were estimated for comparison with biochemically determined biomass data, to evaluate the contribution of the bacterial biomass to the total microbial biomass. It appeared that bacterial biomass made up only 8-31% (average of all stations = 20%) of the total microbial biomass, suggesting a large fraction of other small infaunal organisms within the sediment samples (most probably fungi, yeasts, protozoans such as flagellates, ciliates or amoebae, as well as a fraction of small metazoans). Activity and biomass values determined within this study were generally extremely low, and often even slightly lower than those given for other deep oceanic regions, thus characterizing the seafloor of the central Arctic Ocean as a "benthic desert". Nevertheless, some clear trends in the data could be found, e.g. generally sharply decreasing values within the sediment column, a vague tendency for declining values with increasing water depth of sampling stations, and also differences between various Arctic deep-sea regions.