Reconstructing the subsurface ocean decadal variability using surface nudging in a perfect model framework

Initialising the ocean internal variability for decadal predictability studies is a new area of research and a variety of ad hoc methods are currently proposed. In this study, we explore how nudging with sea surface temperature (SST) and salinity (SSS) can reconstruct the threedimensional variability of the ocean in a perfect model framework. This approach builds on the hypothesis that oceanic processes themselves will transport the surface information into the ocean interior as seen in ocean-only simulations. Five nudged simulations are designed to reconstruct a 150 years ‘‘target’’ simulation, defined as a portion of a long control simulation. The nudged simulations differ by the variables restored to, SST or SST + SSS, and by the area where the nudging is applied. The strength of the heat flux feedback is diagnosed from observations and the restoring coefficients for SSS use the same time-scale. We observed that this choice prevents spurious convection at high latitudes and near sea-ice border when nudging both SST and SSS. In the tropics, nudging the SST is enough to reconstruct the tropical atmosphere circulation and the associated dynamical and thermodynamical impacts on the underlying ocean. In the tropical Pacific Ocean, the profiles for temperature show a significant correlation from the surface down to 2,000 m, due to dynamical adjustment of the isopycnals. At mid-tohigh latitudes, SSS nudging is required to reconstruct both the temperature and the salinity below the seasonal thermocline. This is particularly true in the North Atlantic where adding SSS nudging enables to reconstruct the deep convection regions of the target. By initiating a previously documented 20-year cycle of the model, the SST + SSS nudging is also able to reproduce most of the AMOC variations, a key source of decadal predictability. Reconstruction at depth does not significantly improve with amount of time spent nudging and the efficiency of the surface nudging rather depends on the period/events considered. The joint SST + SSS nudging applied verywhere is the most efficient approach. It ensures that the right water masses are formed at the right surface density, the subsequent circulation, subduction and deep convection further transporting them at depth. The results of this study underline the potential key role of SSS for decadal predictability and further make the case for sustained largescale observations of this field.

Stable oxygen isotope record and Sr/Ca ratios of corals from IODP Holes M0009D and M0023A

We present monthly resolved records of strontium/calcium (Sr/Ca) and oxygen isotope (d18O) ratios from well-preserved fossil corals drilled during the Integrated Ocean Drilling Program (IODP) Expedition 310 'Tahiti Sea Level' and reconstruct sea surface conditions in the central tropical South Pacific Ocean during two time windows of the last deglaciation. The two Tahiti corals examined here are uranium/thorium (U/Th)-dated at 12.4 and 14.2 ka, which correspond to the Younger Dryas (YD) cold reversal and the Bølling-Allerød (B-A) warming of the Northern Hemisphere, respectively. The coral Sr/Ca records indicate that annual average sea surface temperature (SST) was 2.6-3.1 °C lower at 12.4 ka and 1.0-1.6 °C lower at 14.2 ka relative to the present, with no significant changes in the amplitude of the seasonal SST cycle. These cooler conditions were accompanied by seawater d18O (d18Osw) values higher by ~0.8 per mill and ~0.6 per mill relative to the present at 12.4 and 14.2 ka, respectively, implying more saline conditions in the surface waters. Along with previously published coral Sr/Ca records from the island [Cohen and Hart (2004), Deglacial sea surface temperatures of the western tropical Pacific: A new look at old coral. Paleoceanography 19, PA4031, doi:10.1029/2004PA001084], our new Tahiti coral records suggest that a shift toward lower SST by ~1.5 °C occurred from 13.1 to 12.4 ka, which was probably associated with a shift toward higher d18Osw by ~0.2 per mill. Along with a previously published coral Sr/Ca record from Vanuatu [Corrège et al. (2004), Interdecadal variation in the extent of South Pacific tropical waters during the Younger Dyras event. Nature 428, 927-929], the Tahiti coral records provide new evidence for a pronounced cooling of the western to central tropical South Pacific during the Northern Hemisphere YD event.

Stable oxygen isotope record from a high-latitude reef off Western Australia

A core from a coral colony of Porites lutea was analysed for stable oxygen isotopic composition*. A 200-year proxy record of sea surface temperatures from the Houtman Abrolhos Islands off west Australia was obtained from coral delta18O. At 29°S, the Houtman Abrolhos are the southernmost major reef complex of the Indian Ocean. They are located on the path of the Leeuwin Current, a southward flow of warm, tropical water, which is coupled to Indonesian throughflow. Coral delta18O primarily reflects local oceanographic and climatic variability, which is largely determined by spatial variability of the Leeuwin Current. However, coherence between coral delta18O and the current strength itself is relatively weak. Evolutionary spectral and singular spectrum analyses of coral delta18O demonstrate a high variability in spectral composition through time. Oscillations in the 5-7-y, 14-15-y, and quasi-biennial bands reflect teleconnections of local sea surface temperature (SST) to tropical Pacific climate variability. Deviations between local (coral-based) and regional (instrument) SST contain a cyclic component with a period of 15 y. Coral delta18O suggests a rise in SST by 0.6°C since AD 1944, consistent with available instrumental SST records. A long-term warming by 1.4°C since AD 1795 is inferred from the coral record.

Sedimentological and clay mineralogical analysis of ODP sites in the central Fram Strait

This study presents the results of high-resolution sedimentological and clay mineralogical investigations on sediments from ODP Sites 908A and 909AlC located in the central Fram Strait. The objective was to reconstruct the paleoclimate and paleoceanography of the high northern latitudes since the middle Miocene. The sediments are characterised in particular by a distinctive input of ice-rafted material, which most probably occurs since 6 Ma and very likely since 15 Ma. A change in the source area at 1 1.2 Ma is clearly marked by variations within clay mineral composition and increasing accumulation rates. This is interpreted as a result of an increase in water mass exchange through the Fram Strait. A further period of increasing exchange between 4-3 Ma is identified by granulometric investigations and points to a synchronous intensification of deep water production in the North Atlantic during this time interval. A comparison of the components of coarse and clay fraction clearly shows that both are not delivered by the Same transport process. The input of the clay fraction can be related to transport mechanisms through sea ice and glaciers and very likely also through oceanic currents. A reconstruction of source areas for clay minerals is possible only with some restrictions. High smectite contents in middle and late Miocene sediments indicate a background signal produced by soil formation together with sediment input, possibly originating from the Greenland- Scotland Ridge. The applicability of clay mineral distribution as a climate proxy for the high northern latitudes can be confirmed. Based on a comparison of sediments from Site 909C, characterised by the smectite/illite and chlorite ratio, with regional and global climatic records (oxygen isotopes), a middle Miocene cooling phase between 14.8-14.6 Ma can be proposed. A further cooling phase between 10-9 Ma clearly shows similarities in its Progress toward drastic decrease in carbonate sedimentation and preservation in the eastern equatorial Pacific. The modification in sea water and atmosphere chemistry may represent a possible link due to the built-up of equatorial carbonate platforms. Between 4.8-4.6 Ma clay mineral distribution indicates a distinct cooling trend in the Fram Strait region. This is not accompanied by relevant glaciation, which would otherwise be indicated by the coarse fraction. The intensification of glaciation in the northern hemisphere is distinctly documented by a rapid increase of illite and chlorite starting from 3.3 Ma, which corresponds to oxygen isotope data trends from North Atlantic.

Monthly Tahiti coral Sr/Ca and oxygen isotope data from IODP Hole 310-M0024A

The early last glacial termination was characterized by intense North Atlantic cooling and weak overturning circulation. This interval between ~18,000 and 14,600 years ago, known as Heinrich Stadial 1, was accompanied by a disruption of global climate and has been suggested as a key factor for the termination. However, the response of interannual climate variability in the tropical Pacific (El Niño-Southern Oscillation) to Heinrich Stadial 1 is poorly understood. Here we use Sr/Ca in a fossil Tahiti coral to reconstruct tropical South Pacific sea surface temperature around 15,000 years ago at monthly resolution. Unlike today, interannual South Pacific sea surface temperature variability at typical El Niño-Southern Oscillation periods was pronounced at Tahiti. Our results indicate that the El Niño-Southern Oscillation was active during Heinrich Stadial 1, consistent with climate model simulations of enhanced El Niño-Southern Oscillation variability at that time. Furthermore, a greater El Niño-Southern Oscillation influence in the South Pacific during Heinrich Stadial 1 is suggested, resulting from a southward expansion or shift of El Niño-Southern Oscillation sea surface temperature anomalies.