Projecting future expansion of invasive species: Comparing and improving methodologies for species distribution modeling

Modeling the distributions of species, especially of invasive species in non-native ranges, involves multiple challenges. Here, we developed some novel approaches to species distribution modeling aimed at reducing the influences of such challenges and improving the realism of projections. We estimated species-environment relationships with four modeling methods run with multiple scenarios of (1) sources of occurrences and geographically isolated background ranges for absences, (2) approaches to drawing background (absence) points, and (3) alternate sets of predictor variables. We further tested various quantitative metrics of model evaluation against biological insight. Model projections were very sensitive to the choice of training dataset. Model accuracy was much improved by using a global dataset for model training, rather than restricting data input to the species’ native range. AUC score was a poor metric for model evaluation and, if used alone, was not a useful criterion for assessing model performance. Projections away from the sampled space (i.e. into areas of potential future invasion) were very different depending on the modeling methods used, raising questions about the reliability of ensemble projections. Generalized linear models gave very unrealistic projections far away from the training region. Models that efficiently fit the dominant pattern, but exclude highly local patterns in the dataset and capture interactions as they appear in data (e.g. boosted regression trees), improved generalization of the models. Biological knowledge of the species and its distribution was important in refining choices about the best set of projections. A post-hoc test conducted on a new Partenium dataset from Nepal validated excellent predictive performance of our “best” model. We showed that vast stretches of currently uninvaded geographic areas on multiple continents harbor highly suitable habitats for Parthenium hysterophorus L. (Asteraceae; parthenium). However, discrepancies between model predictions and parthenium invasion in Australia indicate successful management for this globally significant weed. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Projecting future expansion of invasive species: Comparing and improving methodologies for species distribution modeling

Modeling the distributions of species, especially of invasive species in non-native ranges, involves multiple challenges. Here, we developed some novel approaches to species distribution modeling aimed at reducing the influences of such challenges and improving the realism of projections. We estimated species-environment relationships with four modeling methods run with multiple scenarios of (1) sources of occurrences and geographically isolated background ranges for absences, (2) approaches to drawing background (absence) points, and (3) alternate sets of predictor variables. We further tested various quantitative metrics of model evaluation against biological insight. Model projections were very sensitive to the choice of training dataset. Model accuracy was much improved by using a global dataset for model training, rather than restricting data input to the species’ native range. AUC score was a poor metric for model evaluation and, if used alone, was not a useful criterion for assessing model performance. Projections away from the sampled space (i.e. into areas of potential future invasion) were very different depending on the modeling methods used, raising questions about the reliability of ensemble projections. Generalized linear models gave very unrealistic projections far away from the training region. Models that efficiently fit the dominant pattern, but exclude highly local patterns in the dataset and capture interactions as they appear in data (e.g. boosted regression trees), improved generalization of the models. Biological knowledge of the species and its distribution was important in refining choices about the best set of projections. A post-hoc test conducted on a new Partenium dataset from Nepal validated excellent predictive performance of our “best” model. We showed that vast stretches of currently uninvaded geographic areas on multiple continents harbor highly suitable habitats for Parthenium hysterophorus L. (Asteraceae; parthenium). However, discrepancies between model predictions and parthenium invasion in Australia indicate successful management for this globally significant weed. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

The global distribution of Banana bunchy top virus reveals little evidence for frequent recent, human-mediated long distance dispersal events

Banana bunchy top virus (BBTV; family Nanoviridae, genus Babuvirus) is a multi-component single-stranded DNA virus, which infects banana plants in many regions of the world, often resulting in large-scale crop losses. Weanalyzed 171 banana leaf samples from fourteen countries and recovered, cloned, and sequenced 855 complete BBTV components including ninety-four full genomes. Importantly, full genomes were determined from eight countries, where previously no full genomes were available (Samoa, Burundi, Republic of Congo, Democratic Republic of Congo, Egypt, Indonesia, the Philippines, and the USA [HI]). Accounting for recombination and genome component reassortment, we examined the geographic structuring of global BBTV populations to reveal that BBTV likely originated in Southeast Asia, that the current global hotspots of BBTV diversity are Southeast Asia/Far East and India, and that BBTV populations circulating elsewhere in the world have all potentially originated from infrequent introductions. Most importantly, we find that rather than the current global BBTV distribution being due to increases in human-mediated movements of bananas over the past few decades, it is more consistent with a pattern of infrequent introductions of the virus to different parts of the world over the past 1,000 years.

Sequence distribution in Acrylonitrile-methylacrylate random copolymers by N.M.R spectroscopy

The sequence distribution studies on the acrylonitrile-methylmethacrylate copolymer of high methylmethacrylate (M) content (30%pattern of a-methyl protons.

Spatial patterning of the distribution of Ca-2+ in Dictyostelium discoideum

We have shown previously that the Ca2+-specific fluorescent dyes chlortetracycline (CTC) and indo-1/AM can be used to distinguish between prestalk and prespore cells in Dictyostelium discoideum at a very early stage. In the present study, pre- and post-aggregative amoebae of Dictyostelium discoideum were labelled with CTC or indo-1 and their fluorescence monitored after being drawn into a fine glass capillary. The cells rapidly form two zones of Ca2+-CTC or Ca2+-indo-1 fluorescence. Anterior (air side) cells display a high level of fluorescence; the level drops in the middle portion of the capillary and rises again to a lesser extent in the posteriormost cells (oil side). When bounded by air on both sides, the cells display high fluorescence at both ends. When oil is present at both ends of the capillary, there is little fluorescence except for small regions at the ends. These outcomes are evident within a couple of minutes of the start of the experiment and the fluorescence pattern intensifies over the course of time. By using the indicator neutral red, as well as with CTC and indo-1, we show that a band displaying strong fluorescence moves away from the anterior end before stabilizing at the anterior-posterior boundary. We discuss our findings in relation to the role of Ca2+ in cell-type differentiation in Dictyostelium discoideum.

An annotated checklist of amphibian of India with some insights into the patterns of species discoveries, distribution and endemism

An annotated checklist of 284 species of amphibians of India accommodated under 50 genera and 14 families is provided. Synonyms, English names, type localities, deposition of type specimens, type specimen availability and distributional records in India and outside India are provided for all the species. Among the 284 species of amphibians from India, 132 are endemic to Western Ghats; 29 to Northeastern India; and 5 to Andaman Nicobar islands. Species discovery patterns from the various biogeographic zones in India are discussed in detail. Cumulative discovery pattern with special reference to the genera Fejervarya (17 species), Nyctibatrachus (16 species), Indirana (10 species), Micrixalus (11 species), Philautus (46 species) and Gegeneophis (10 species) are also discussed.

Aerosol size distribution and its connection to cloud droplet number concentration

In order to predict the current state and future development of Earth s climate, detailed information on atmospheric aerosols and aerosol-cloud-interactions is required. Furthermore, these interactions need to be expressed in such a way that they can be represented in large-scale climate models. The largest uncertainties in the estimate of radiative forcing on the present day climate are related to the direct and indirect effects of aerosol. In this work aerosol properties were studied at Pallas and Utö in Finland, and at Mount Waliguan in Western China. Approximately two years of data from each site were analyzed. In addition to this, data from two intensive measurement campaigns at Pallas were used. The measurements at Mount Waliguan were the first long term aerosol particle number concentration and size distribution measurements conducted in this region. They revealed that the number concentration of aerosol particles at Mount Waliguan were much higher than those measured at similar altitudes in other parts of the world. The particles were concentrated in the Aitken size range indicating that they were produced within a couple of days prior to reaching the site, rather than being transported over thousands of kilometers. Aerosol partitioning between cloud droplets and cloud interstitial particles was studied at Pallas during the two measurement campaigns, First Pallas Cloud Experiment (First PaCE) and Second Pallas Cloud Experiment (Second PaCE). The method of using two differential mobility particle sizers (DMPS) to calculate the number concentration of activated particles was found to agree well with direct measurements of cloud droplet. Several parameters important in cloud droplet activation were found to depend strongly on the air mass history. The effects of these parameters partially cancelled out each other. Aerosol number-to-volume concentration ratio was studied at all three sites using data sets with long time-series. The ratio was found to vary more than in earlier studies, but less than either aerosol particle number concentration or volume concentration alone. Both air mass dependency and seasonal pattern were found at Pallas and Utö, but only seasonal pattern at Mount Waliguan. The number-to-volume concentration ratio was found to follow the seasonal temperature pattern well at all three sites. A new parameterization for partitioning between cloud droplets and cloud interstitial particles was developed. The parameterization uses aerosol particle number-to-volume concentration ratio and aerosol particle volume concentration as the only information on the aerosol number and size distribution. The new parameterization is computationally more efficient than the more detailed parameterizations currently in use, but the accuracy of the new parameterization was slightly lower. The new parameterization was also compared to directly observed cloud droplet number concentration data, and a good agreement was found.

Study Of Fluid-Flow And Residence-Time Distribution In A Continuous Slab Casting Mold

The fluid-flow pattern and residence-time distribution (r.t.d.) of the fluid in a continuous casting mould have been studied using a water model. The two recirculating zones below the discharge ports have been found to be asymmetric. The effect of casting speed, discharge port diameter, shroud well depth and the immersion depth on r.t.d. have been investigated. The r.t.d. curve has been well represented by a model of two backmix cells of equal volume in series. The exist of the fluid has been found to be non-uniform across the cross-section of the mould. The fluid-flow pattern has been observed to change with time in a random fashion. Dead volume of upto 31.8% has been found with smaller discharge ports.

Impact of physical processes on the chlorophyll distribution in the Bay of Bengal

Satellite-derived chlorophyll a concentration (chl a) maps show three regions with high chl a in the Bay of Bengal. First among these is close to the coast, particularly off river mouths, with high values coinciding with the season of peak discharge; second is in the southwestern bay during the northeast monsoon, which is forced by local Ekman pumping; and the third is to the east of Sri Lanka in response to the summer monsoon winds. Chlorophyll-rich water from the mouths of rivers flows either along the coast or in an offshore direction, up to several hundred kilometers, depending on the prevailing ocean current pattern. The Irrawady River plume flows toward offshore and then turns northwestward during October–December, but it flows along the coast into the Andaman Sea for the rest of the year. From the Ganga-Brahmaputra river mouth, chl a–rich water flows directly southward into the open bay during spring but along the Indian coast during summer and winter. Along the Indian coast, the flow of chl a–rich water is determined by the East India Coastal Current (EICC). Whenever the EICC meanders off the Indian coast, it leads to an offshore outbreak of chl a–rich water from the coastal region into open ocean. The EICC as well as open ocean circulation in the bay is made up of several eddies, and these eddies show relatively higher chl a. Eddies near the coast, however, can often have higher chl a because of advection from the coastal region rather than generation within the eddy itself. The bay experiences several cyclones in a year, most of them occurring during October–November. These cyclones cause a drop in the sea surface temperature, a dip in the sea level, and a local increase in chl a. The impact of a cyclone is weaker in the northern part of the bay because of stronger stratification compared to the southern parts.

Inherent structures of phase-separating binary mixtures: Nucleation, spinodal decomposition, and pattern formation

An energy landscape view of phase separation and nonideality in binary mixtures is developed by exploring their potential energy landscape (PEL) as functions of temperature and composition. We employ molecular dynamics simulations to study a model that promotes structure breaking in the solute-solvent parent binary liquid, at low temperatures. The PEL of the system captures the potential energy distribution of the inherent structures (IS) of the system and is obtained by removing the kinetic energy (including that of intermolecular vibrations). The broader distribution of the inherent structure energy for structure breaking liquid than that of the structure making liquid demonstrates the larger role of entropy in stabilizing the parent liquid of the structure breaking type of binary mixtures. At high temperature, although the parent structure of the structure breaking binary mixture is homogenous, the corresponding inherent structure is found to be always phase separated, with a density pattern that exhibits marked correlation with the energy of its inherent structure. Over a broad range of intermediate inherent structure energy, bicontinuous phase separation prevails with interpenetrating stripes as signatures of spinodal decomposition. At low inherent structure energy, the structure is largely phase separated with one interface where as at high inherent structure energy we find nucleation type growth. Interestingly, at low temperature, the average inherent structure energy (< EIS >) exhibits a drop with temperature which signals the onset of crystallization in one of the phases while the other remains in the liquid state. The nonideal composition dependence of viscosity is anticorrelated with average inherent structure energy.

The determination of spatial pattern in Dictyostelium discoideum

Free-living amoebae of the cellular slime mould Dictyostelium discoideum aggregate when starved and give rise to a long and thin multicellular structure, the slug. The slug resembles a metazoan embryo, and as with other embryos it is possible to specify a fate map. In the case of Dictyostelium discoideum the map is especially simple: cells in the anterior fifth of the slug die and form a stalk while the majority of those in the posterior differentiate into spores. The genesis of this anterior-posterior distinction is the subject of our review. In particular, we ask: what are the relative roles of individual pre-aggregative predispositions and post-aggregative position in determining cell fate? We review the literature on the subject and conclude that both factors are important. Variations in nutritional status, or in cell cycle phase at starvation, can bias the probability that an amoeba differentiates into a stalk cell or a spore. On the other hand, isolates, or slug fragments, consisting of only prestalk cells or only prespore cells can regulate so as to result in a normal range of both cell types. We identify three levels of control, each being responsible for guiding patterning in normal development: (i) 'coin tossing', whereby a cell autonomously exhibits a preference for developing along either the stalk or the spore pathway with relative probabilities that can be influenced by the environment; (ii) 'chemical kinetics', whereby prestalk and prespore cells originate from undifferentiated amoebae on a probabilistic basis but, having originated, interact (e.g. via positive and negative feedbacks), and the interaction influences the possibility of conversion of one cell type into the other, and (iii) 'positional information', in which the spatial distribution of morphogens in the slug influences the pathway of differentiation. In the case of possibilities (i) and (ii), sorting out of like cell types leads to the final spatial pattern. In the case of possibility (iii), the pattern arises in situ.

Molecular cloning and expression pattern of a Cubitus interruptus homologue from the mulberry silkworm Bombyx mori

A homologue of the segment polarity gene Cubitus interruptus from Bombyx Mori, (BmCi) has been cloned and characterized. This region harbouring Zn2+ finger motif is highly conserved across species. In B. Mori, BmCi RNA expression was first detected at stage 6 of embryogenesis, which reached maximum levels at stage 21C and was maintained until larval hatching. The segmentally reiterated striped pattern of transcript distribution in stage 21C embryos was in conformity with its predicted segment polarity nature. BmCi was expressed in the fore- and hind-wing discs, ovaries, testes and gut during fifth larval intermolt, reminiscent of its expression domains in Drosophila. Besides, BmCi expression was seen in the. anterior part of the middle silkglands in late embryonic stages, and this pattern was maintained during larval development. The transition from third to fourth and fifth larval intermolts was accompanied by an increase in the transcript levels in the middle silkglands. Our results demonstrate the presence of a novel expression domain for Ci in Bombyx. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Online Unsupervised Pattern Discovery in Speech Using Parallelization

Segmental dynamic time warping (DTW) has been demonstrated to be a useful technique for finding acoustic similarity scores between segments of two speech utterances. Due to its high computational requirements, it had to be computed in an offline manner, limiting the applications of the technique. In this paper, we present results of parallelization of this task by distributing the workload in either a static or dynamic way on an 8-processor cluster and discuss the trade-offs among different distribution schemes. We show that online unsupervised pattern discovery using segmental DTW is plausible with as low as 8 processors. This brings the task within reach of today's general purpose multi-core servers. We also show results on a 32-processor system, and discuss factors affecting scalability of our methods.

Investigation of orographic features influencing spatial distribution of rainfall over the Western Ghats of India using satellite data

Using remotely sensed Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) 3B42 rainfall and topographic data from the Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer (ASTER) Digital Elevation Model (DEM), the impact of oroghraphical aspects such as topography, spatial variability of elevation and altitude of apexes are examined to investigate capacious summer monsoon rainfall over the Western Ghats (WG) of India. TRMM 3B42 v7 rainfall data is validated with Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) gridded rainfall data at 0.5 degrees resolution over the WG. The analysis of spatial pattern of monsoon rainfall with orography of the WG ascertains that the grade of orographic precipitation depends mainly on topography of the mountain barrier followed by steepness of windward side slope and altitude of the mountain. Longer and broader, i.e. cascaded topography, elevated summits and gradually increasing slopes impel the enhancement in precipitation. Comparing topography of various states of the WG, it has been observed that windward side of Karnataka receives intense rainfall in the WG during summer monsoon. It has been observed that the rainfall is enhanced before the peak of the mountain and confined up to the height about 800m over the WG. In addition to this, the spatial distribution of heavy and very heavy rainfall events in the last 14 years has also been explored. Heavy and very heavy rain events on this hilly terrain are categorized with a threshold of precipitation (R) in the range 150>R>120mmday(-1) and exceeding 150mmday(-1) using probability distribution of TRMM 3B42 v7 rainfall. The areas which are prone to heavy precipitation are identified. The study would help policy makers to manage the hazard scenario and, to improve weather predictions on mountainous terrain of the WG.

Factors affecting distribution of fish within a tidally drained mangrove forest in the Andaman and Nicobar Islands, India

Mangrove forests in meso-tidal areas are completely drained during low tides, forming only temporary habitats for fish. We hypothesised that in such temporary habitats, where stranding risks are high, distance from tidal creeks that provided access to inundated areas during receding tides would be the primary determinant of fish distribution. Factors such as depth, root density and shade were hypothesised to have secondary effects. We tested these hypotheses in a tidally drained mangrove patch in the Andaman Islands, India. Using stake nets, we measured fish abundance and species richness relative to distance from creeks, root density/m(2), shade, water depth and size (total length) of fish. We also predicted that larger fish (including potential predators) would be closer to creeks, as they faced a greater chance of mortality if stranded. Thus we conducted tethering trials to examine if predation would be greater close to the creeks. Generalised linear mixed effects models showed that fish abundance was negatively influenced by increasing creek distance interacting with fish size and positively influenced by depth. Quantile regression analysis showed that species richness was limited by increasing creek distance. Proportion of predation was greatest close to the creeks (0-25 m) and declined with increasing distance. Abundance was also low very close to the creeks, suggesting that close to the creeks predation pressure may be an important determinant of fish abundance. The overall pattern however indicates that access to permanently inundated areas, may be an important determinant of fish distribution in tidally drained mangrove forests.