Initiation of deep convection at marginal instability in an ensemble of mesoscale models: a case-study from COPS

The present study investigates the initiation of precipitating deep convection in an ensemble of convection-resolving mesoscale models. Results of eight different model runs from five non-hydrostatic models are compared for a case of the Convective and Orographically-induced Precipitation Study (COPS). An isolated convective cell initiated east of the Black Forest crest in southwest Germany, although convective available potential energy was only moderate and convective inhibition was high. Measurements revealed that, due to the absence of synoptic forcing, convection was initiated by local processes related to the orography. In particular, the lifting by low-level convergence in the planetary boundary layer is assumed to be the dominant process on that day. The models used different configurations as well as different initial and boundary conditions. By comparing the different model performance with each other and with measurements, the processes which need to be well represented to initiate convection at the right place and time are discussed. Besides an accurate specification of the thermodynamic and kinematic fields, the results highlight the role of boundary-layer convergence features for quantitative precipitation forecasts in mountainous terrain.

Generation of inertia-gravity waves in the rotating thermal annulus by a localised boundary layer instability

Waves with periods shorter than the inertial period exist in the atmosphere (as inertia-gravity waves) and in the oceans (as Poincaré and internal gravity waves). Such waves owe their origin to various mechanisms, but of particular interest are those arising either from local secondary instabilities or spontaneous emission due to loss of balance. These phenomena have been studied in the laboratory, both in the mechanically-forced and the thermally-forced rotating annulus. Their generation mechanisms, especially in the latter system, have not yet been fully understood, however. Here we examine short period waves in a numerical model of the rotating thermal annulus, and show how the results are consistent with those from earlier laboratory experiments. We then show how these waves are consistent with being inertia-gravity waves generated by a localised instability within the thermal boundary layer, the location of which is determined by regions of strong shear and downwelling at certain points within a large-scale baroclinic wave flow. The resulting instability launches small-scale inertia-gravity waves into the geostrophic interior of the flow. Their behaviour is captured in fully nonlinear numerical simulations in a finite-difference, 3D Boussinesq Navier-Stokes model. Such a mechanism has many similarities with those responsible for launching small- and meso-scale inertia-gravity waves in the atmosphere from fronts and local convection.

Conditional symmetric instability in sting-jet storms

Sting jets are transient mesoscale jets of air that descend from the tip of the cloud head towards the top of the boundary layer in severe extratropical cyclones and can lead to damaging surface wind gusts. This recently identified jet is distinct from the well-documented jets associated with the cold and warm conveyor belts. One mechanism proposed for their development is the release of conditional symmetric instability (CSI). Here the spatial distribution and temporal evolution of several CSI diagnostics in four severe storms are analysed. A sting jet has been identified in three of these storms; for comparison, we also analysed one storm that did not have a sting jet, even though it hadmany of the apparent features of sting-jet storms. The sting-jet storms are distinct from the non-sting-jet storms by having much greater andmore extensive conditional instability (CI) and CSI. CSI is released by ascending air parcels in the cloud head in two of the sting-jet storms and by descending air parcels in the other sting-jet storm. By contrast, only weak CI to ascending air parcels is present at the cloud-head tip in the non-sting-jet storm. CSI released by descending air parcels, as diagnosed by decaying downdraught slantwise convective available potential energy (DSCAPE), is collocated with the sting jets in all three sting-jet storms and has a localisedmaximum in two of them. Consistent evolutions of saturated moist potential vorticity are found.We conclude that CSI release has a role in the generation of the sting jet, that the sting jet may be driven by the release of instability to both ascending and descending parcels, and that DSCAPE could be used as a discriminating diagnostic for the sting jet based on these four case-studies.

Symmetry breaking, mixing, instability, and low frequency variability in a minimal Lorenz-like system

Starting from the classical Saltzman two-dimensional convection equations, we derive via a severe spectral truncation a minimal 10 ODE system which includes the thermal effect of viscous dissipation. Neglecting this process leads to a dynamical system which includes a decoupled generalized Lorenz system. The consideration of this process breaks an important symmetry and couples the dynamics of fast and slow variables, with the ensuing modifications to the structural properties of the attractor and of the spectral features. When the relevant nondimensional number (Eckert number Ec) is different from zero, an additional time scale of O(Ec−1) is introduced in the system, as shown with standard multiscale analysis and made clear by several numerical evidences. Moreover, the system is ergodic and hyperbolic, the slow variables feature long-term memory with 1/f3/2 power spectra, and the fast variables feature amplitude modulation. Increasing the strength of the thermal-viscous feedback has a stabilizing effect, as both the metric entropy and the Kaplan-Yorke attractor dimension decrease monotonically with Ec. The analyzed system features very rich dynamics: it overcomes some of the limitations of the Lorenz system and might have prototypical value in relevant processes in complex systems dynamics, such as the interaction between slow and fast variables, the presence of long-term memory, and the associated extreme value statistics. This analysis shows how neglecting the coupling of slow and fast variables only on the basis of scale analysis can be catastrophic. In fact, this leads to spurious invariances that affect essential dynamical properties (ergodicity, hyperbolicity) and that cause the model losing ability in describing intrinsically multiscale processes.

Accommodative instability: relationship to progression of early onset myopia

Background: In a previous study, we demonstrated that children with early onset myopia had greater instability of accommodation than a group of emmetropic children. Since that study was correlational, we were unable to determine the causal relationship between this and myopic progression. To address this, we examined the children two years later. We predicted that if accommodative instability was causing the myopic progression, instability at Visit 1 should predict the refractive error at Visit 2. Additionally, instability at Visit 1 should predict myopic progression. Methods: Thirteen myopic and 16 emmetropic children were included in the analysis. Dynamic measures of accommodation were made using eccentric photorefraction (PowerRefractor) while children viewed targets set at three distances (accommodative demands), namely, 0.25 metres (4.00 D demand), 0.5 metres (2.00 D demand) and 4.00 metres (0.25 D demand). Results: Both refractive error and accommodative instability at Visit 1 were highly correlated with the same measures at Visit 2. Children with myopia showed greater instability of accommodation (0.38 D) than children with emmetropia (0.26 D) at the 4.00 D target on Visit 1 and this instability of accommodation weakly predicted myopic progression. Conclusions: The results presented in the present study suggest that instability of accommodation accompanies myopic progression, although a casual relationship cannot be established.

Research review: reading comprehension in developmental disorders of language and communication

Background: Deficits in reading airment (SLI), Down syndrome (DS) and autism spectrum disorders (ASD). Methods: In this review (based on a search of the ISI Web of Knowledge database to 2011), the Simple View of Reading is used as a framework for considering reading comprehension in these groups. Conclusions: There is substantial evidence for reading comprehension impairments in SLI and growing evidence that weaknesses in this domain are common in DS and ASD. Further, in these groups reading comprehension is typically more impaired than word recognition. However, there is also evidence that some children and adolescents with DS, ASD and a history of SLI develop reading comprehension and word recognition skills at or above the age appropriate level. This review of the literature indicates that factors including word recognition, oral language, nonverbal ability and working memory may explain reading comprehension difficulties in SLI, DS and ASD. In addition, it highlights methodological issues, implications of poor reading comprehension and fruitful areas for future research.

Evolutionary developmental biology: impact on systematic theory and practice, and the contribution of systematics

Evolutionary developmental genetics brings together systematists, morphologists and developmental geneticists; it will therefore impact on each of these component disciplines. The goals and methods of phylogenetic analysis are reviewed here, and the contribution of evolutionary developmental genetics to morphological systematics, in terms of character conceptualisation and primary homology assessment, is discussed. Evolutionary developmental genetics, like its component disciplines phylogenetic systematics and comparative morphology, is concerned with homology concepts. Phylogenetic concepts of homology and their limitations are considered here, and the need for independent homology statements at different levels of biological organisation is evaluated. The role of systematics in evolutionary developmental genetics is outlined. Phylogenetic systematics and comparative morphology will suggest effective sampling strategies to developmental geneticists. Phylogenetic systematics provides hypotheses of character evolution (including parallel evolution and convergence), stimulating investigations into the evolutionary gains and losses of morphologies. Comparative morphology identifies those structures that are not easily amenable to typological categorisation, and that may be of particular interest in terms of developmental genetics. The concepts of latent homology and genetic recall may also prove useful in the evolutionary interpretation of developmental genetic data.

Disrupted white matter in language and motor tracts in developmental stuttering

White matter tractsc onnecting areas involved in speech and motor control were examined using diffusion-tensor imagingingin a sample of peoplewhostutter (n=29) who were heterogeneous with respect to age, sex, handedness and stuttering severity. The goals were to replicate previous findings in developmental stuttering and to extend ourknowledge by evaluating the relationship between white matter differences in people who stutter and factors such as age, sex, handedness and stuttering severity. We replicated previous findings that showed reduced integrity in white matter underlying ventral premotorcortex, cerebral peduncles and posteriorcorpus callosum in people who stutter, relative to controls. Tractography analysis additionally revealed significantly reduced white matter integrity in the arcuate fasciculus bilaterally and the left corticospinal tract and significantly reduced connectivity within theleft corticobulbar tract in people who stutter. Region-of-interest analyses revealed reduced white matter integrity in people whostutter in the three pairs ocerebellar peduncles thatcarry the afferent and efferent fibers of the cerebellum. Within thegroup of people who stutter, the higher the stuttering severity index, the lower the white matter integrity in the leftangular gyrus but the greater the white matter connectivity in theleft corticobulbartract. Also,in people who stutter, handedness and age predicted the integrity of the corticospinal tract and peduncles, respectively. Further studies are needed to determine which of these white matter differences relate to the neural basis of stuttering and which reflect experience-dependent plasticity.

On nonlinear symmetric stability and the nonlinear saturation of symmetric instability

A nonlinear symmetric stability theorem is derived in the context of the f-plane Boussinesq equations, recovering an earlier result of Xu within a more general framework. The theorem applies to symmetric disturbances to a baroclinic basic flow, the disturbances having arbitrary structure and magnitude. The criteria for nonlinear stability are virtually identical to those for linear stability. As in Xu, the nonlinear stability theorem can be used to obtain rigorous upper bounds on the saturation amplitude of symmetric instabilities. In a simple example, the bounds are found to compare favorably with heuristic parcel-based estimates in both the hydrostatic and non-hydrostatic limits.

Nonlinear saturation of baroclinic instability: part III: bounds on the energy

Rigorous upper bounds are derived on the saturation amplitude of baroclinic instability in the two-layer model. The bounds apply to the eddy energy and are obtained by appealing to a finite amplitude conservation law for the disturbance pseudoenergy. These bounds are to be distinguished from those derived in Part I of this study, which employed a pseudomomentum conservation law and provided bounds on the eddy potential enstrophy. The bounds apply to conservative (inviscid, unforced) flow, as well as to forced-dissipative flow when the dissipation is proportional to the potential vorticity. Bounds on the eddy energy are worked out for a general class of unstable westerly jets. In the special case of the Phillips model of baroclinic instability, and in the limit of infinitesimal initial eddy amplitude, the bound states that the eddy energy cannot exceed ϵβ2/6F where ϵ = (U − Ucrit)/Ucrit is the relative supercriticality. This bound captures the essential dynamical scalings (i.e., the dependence on ϵ, β, and F) of the saturation amplitudes predicted by weakly nonlinear theory, as well as exhibiting remarkable quantitative agreement with those predictions, and is also consistent with heuristic baroclinic adjustment estimates.