951 resultados para Decision Theory


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Crack cocaine-dependent individuals (CCDI) present abnormalities in both social adjustment and decision making, but few studies have examined this association. This study investigated cognitive and social performance of 30 subjects (CCDI x controls); CCDI were abstinent for 2 weeks. We used the Social Adjustment Scale (SAS), Wisconsin Card Sorting Test (WCST), and Iowa Gambling Task (IGT). Disadvantageous choices on the IGT were associated with higher levels of social dysfunction in CCDI, suggesting the ecological validity of the IGT. Social dysfunction and decision making may be linked to the same underlying prefrontal dysfunction, but the nature of this association should be further investigated. (Am J Addict 2010;00: 1-9).

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Background: Attention deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) is a clinically significant disorder in adulthood, but current diagnostic criteria and instruments do not seem to adequately capture the complexity of the disorder in this developmental phase. Accordingly, there are limited data on the proportion of adults affected by the disorder, specially in developing countries. Method: We assessed a representative household sample of the Brazilian population for ADHD with the Adult ADHD Self-report Scale (ASRS) Screener, and evaluated the instrument according to the Rasch model of item response theory. Results: The sample was comprised by 3007 individuals, and the overal prevalence of positive screeners for ADHD was 5.8% [95% confidence interval (CI), 4.8-7.0]. Rasch analyses revealed the misfitt of the overall sample to expectations of the model. The evaluation of the sample stratified by age revealed that data for adolescents showed a signficant fittnes to the model expectations, while items completed by adults were not adequated. Conclusions: The lack of fitness to the model for adult respondents challenges the possibility of a linear transformation of the ordinal data into interval measures and the utilization of parametric analyses of data. This result suggests that diagnostic criteria and instruments for adult ADHD must take into account a developmental perspective. Moreover, it calls for further evaluation of currently employed research methods in light of modern theories of psychometrics. Copyright (C) 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

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Objective: To develop a model to predict the bleeding source and identify the cohort amongst patients with acute gastrointestinal bleeding (GIB) who require urgent intervention, including endoscopy. Patients with acute GIB, an unpredictable event, are most commonly evaluated and managed by non-gastroenterologists. Rapid and consistently reliable risk stratification of patients with acute GIB for urgent endoscopy may potentially improve outcomes amongst such patients by targeting scarce health-care resources to those who need it the most. Design and methods: Using ICD-9 codes for acute GIB, 189 patients with acute GIB and all. available data variables required to develop and test models were identified from a hospital medical records database. Data on 122 patients was utilized for development of the model and on 67 patients utilized to perform comparative analysis of the models. Clinical data such as presenting signs and symptoms, demographic data, presence of co-morbidities, laboratory data and corresponding endoscopic diagnosis and outcomes were collected. Clinical data and endoscopic diagnosis collected for each patient was utilized to retrospectively ascertain optimal management for each patient. Clinical presentations and corresponding treatment was utilized as training examples. Eight mathematical models including artificial neural network (ANN), support vector machine (SVM), k-nearest neighbor, linear discriminant analysis (LDA), shrunken centroid (SC), random forest (RF), logistic regression, and boosting were trained and tested. The performance of these models was compared using standard statistical analysis and ROC curves. Results: Overall the random forest model best predicted the source, need for resuscitation, and disposition with accuracies of approximately 80% or higher (accuracy for endoscopy was greater than 75%). The area under ROC curve for RF was greater than 0.85, indicating excellent performance by the random forest model Conclusion: While most mathematical models are effective as a decision support system for evaluation and management of patients with acute GIB, in our testing, the RF model consistently demonstrated the best performance. Amongst patients presenting with acute GIB, mathematical models may facilitate the identification of the source of GIB, need for intervention and allow optimization of care and healthcare resource allocation; these however require further validation. (c) 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.