Re-engineering Technology: Date Mining for Clubs

With increasing competition and more demanding members, clubs need a tool to help them belter attract and retain members and predict their behavior. Data mining is such a tool. This article presents an overview of how data warehousing, data marting, and data mining can provide the foundation on which clubs can build strategies to outsmart competitors, build Ioyalty identify new members, and lower costs.

Ensemble Stream Model for Data-Cleaning in Sensor Networks

Ensemble Stream Modeling and Data-cleaning are sensor information processing systems have different training and testing methods by which their goals are cross-validated. This research examines a mechanism, which seeks to extract novel patterns by generating ensembles from data. The main goal of label-less stream processing is to process the sensed events to eliminate the noises that are uncorrelated, and choose the most likely model without over fitting thus obtaining higher model confidence. Higher quality streams can be realized by combining many short streams into an ensemble which has the desired quality. The framework for the investigation is an existing data mining tool. First, to accommodate feature extraction such as a bush or natural forest-fire event we make an assumption of the burnt area (BA*), sensed ground truth as our target variable obtained from logs. Even though this is an obvious model choice the results are disappointing. The reasons for this are two: One, the histogram of fire activity is highly skewed. Two, the measured sensor parameters are highly correlated. Since using non descriptive features does not yield good results, we resort to temporal features. By doing so we carefully eliminate the averaging effects; the resulting histogram is more satisfactory and conceptual knowledge is learned from sensor streams. Second is the process of feature induction by cross-validating attributes with single or multi-target variables to minimize training error. We use F-measure score, which combines precision and accuracy to determine the false alarm rate of fire events. The multi-target data-cleaning trees use information purity of the target leaf-nodes to learn higher order features. A sensitive variance measure such as ƒ-test is performed during each node's split to select the best attribute. Ensemble stream model approach proved to improve when using complicated features with a simpler tree classifier. The ensemble framework for data-cleaning and the enhancements to quantify quality of fitness (30% spatial, 10% temporal, and 90% mobility reduction) of sensor led to the formation of streams for sensor-enabled applications. Which further motivates the novelty of stream quality labeling and its importance in solving vast amounts of real-time mobile streams generated today.

Temporal Mining for Distributed Systems

Many systems and applications are continuously producing events. These events are used to record the status of the system and trace the behaviors of the systems. By examining these events, system administrators can check the potential problems of these systems. If the temporal dynamics of the systems are further investigated, the underlying patterns can be discovered. The uncovered knowledge can be leveraged to predict the future system behaviors or to mitigate the potential risks of the systems. Moreover, the system administrators can utilize the temporal patterns to set up event management rules to make the system more intelligent. With the popularity of data mining techniques in recent years, these events grad- ually become more and more useful. Despite the recent advances of the data mining techniques, the application to system event mining is still in a rudimentary stage. Most of works are still focusing on episodes mining or frequent pattern discovering. These methods are unable to provide a brief yet comprehensible summary to reveal the valuable information from the high level perspective. Moreover, these methods provide little actionable knowledge to help the system administrators to better man- age the systems. To better make use of the recorded events, more practical techniques are required. From the perspective of data mining, three correlated directions are considered to be helpful for system management: (1) Provide concise yet comprehensive summaries about the running status of the systems; (2) Make the systems more intelligence and autonomous; (3) Effectively detect the abnormal behaviors of the systems. Due to the richness of the event logs, all these directions can be solved in the data-driven manner. And in this way, the robustness of the systems can be enhanced and the goal of autonomous management can be approached. This dissertation mainly focuses on the foregoing directions that leverage tem- poral mining techniques to facilitate system management. More specifically, three concrete topics will be discussed, including event, resource demand prediction, and streaming anomaly detection. Besides the theoretic contributions, the experimental evaluation will also be presented to demonstrate the effectiveness and efficacy of the corresponding solutions.

Research on the influence of behavioral forces that motivate trader behavior and sentiment- a prospect theory exegesis

This study focuses on empirical investigations and seeks implications by utilizing three different methodologies to test various aspects of trader behavior. The first methodology utilizes Prospect Theory to determine trader behavior during periods of extreme wealth contracting periods. Secondly, a threshold model to examine the sentiment variable is formulated and thirdly a study is made of the contagion effect and trader behavior. The connection between consumers' sense of financial well-being or sentiment and stock market performance has been studied at length. However, without data on actual versus experimental performance, implications based on this relationship are meaningless. The empirical agenda included examining a proprietary file of daily trader activities over a five-year period. Overall, during periods of extreme wealth altering conditions, traders "satisfice" rather than choose the "best" alternative. A trader's degree of loss aversion depends on his/her prior investment performance. A model that explains the behavior of traders during periods of turmoil is developed. Prospect Theory and the data file influenced the design of the model. Additional research included testing a model that permitted the data to signal the crisis through a threshold model. The third empirical study sought to investigate the existence of contagion caused by declining global wealth effects using evidence from the mining industry in Canada. Contagion, where a financial crisis begins locally and subsequently spreads elsewhere, has been studied in terms of correlations among similar regions. The results provide support for Prospect Theory in two out of the three empirical studies. The dissertation emphasizes the need for specifying precise, testable models of investors' expectations by providing tools to identify paradoxical behavior patterns. True enhancements in this field must include empirical research utilizing reliable data sources to mitigate data mining problems and allow researchers to distinguish between expectations-based and risk-based explanations of behavior. Through this type of research, it may be possible to systematically exploit "irrational" market behavior.

Classificazione e selezione di tecniche di visualizzazione per Big Data Analytics

La tesi presenta uno studio della libreria grafica per web D3, sviluppata in javascript, e ne presenta una catalogazione dei grafici implementati e reperibili sul web. Lo scopo è quello di valutare la libreria e studiarne i pregi e difetti per capire se sia opportuno utilizzarla nell'ambito di un progetto Europeo. Per fare questo vengono studiati i metodi di classificazione dei grafici presenti in letteratura e viene esposto e descritto lo stato dell'arte del data visualization. Viene poi descritto il metodo di classificazione proposto dal team di progettazione e catalogata la galleria di grafici presente sul sito della libreria D3. Infine viene presentato e studiato in maniera formale un algoritmo per selezionare un grafico in base alle esigenze dell'utente.

Sentiment-Topic Modelling in Text Mining

Peer reviewed

Sentiment-Topic Modelling in Text Mining

Peer reviewed

Sentiment-Topic Modelling in Text Mining

Peer reviewed

Occupant location prediction in smart buildings using association rule mining

Heating, ventilation, air conditioning (HVAC) systems are significant consumers of energy, however building management systems do not typically operate them in accordance with occupant movements. Due to the delayed response of HVAC systems, prediction of occupant locations is necessary to maximize energy efficiency. We present an approach to occupant location prediction based on association rule mining, allowing prediction based on historical occupant locations. Association rule mining is a machine learning technique designed to find any correlations which exist in a given dataset. Occupant location datasets have a number of properties which differentiate them from the market basket datasets that association rule mining was originally designed for. This thesis adapts the approach to suit such datasets, focusing the rule mining process on patterns which are useful for location prediction. This approach, named OccApriori, allows for the prediction of occupants’ next locations as well as their locations further in the future, and can take into account any available data, for example the day of the week, the recent movements of the occupant, and timetable data. By integrating an existing extension of association rule mining into the approach, it is able to make predictions based on general classes of locations as well as specific locations.

Dynamic Programming Approaches for Estimating and Applying Large-scale Discrete Choice Models

People go through their life making all kinds of decisions, and some of these decisions affect their demand for transportation, for example, their choices of where to live and where to work, how and when to travel and which route to take. Transport related choices are typically time dependent and characterized by large number of alternatives that can be spatially correlated. This thesis deals with models that can be used to analyze and predict discrete choices in large-scale networks. The proposed models and methods are highly relevant for, but not limited to, transport applications. We model decisions as sequences of choices within the dynamic discrete choice framework, also known as parametric Markov decision processes. Such models are known to be difficult to estimate and to apply to make predictions because dynamic programming problems need to be solved in order to compute choice probabilities. In this thesis we show that it is possible to explore the network structure and the flexibility of dynamic programming so that the dynamic discrete choice modeling approach is not only useful to model time dependent choices, but also makes it easier to model large-scale static choices. The thesis consists of seven articles containing a number of models and methods for estimating, applying and testing large-scale discrete choice models. In the following we group the contributions under three themes: route choice modeling, large-scale multivariate extreme value (MEV) model estimation and nonlinear optimization algorithms. Five articles are related to route choice modeling. We propose different dynamic discrete choice models that allow paths to be correlated based on the MEV and mixed logit models. The resulting route choice models become expensive to estimate and we deal with this challenge by proposing innovative methods that allow to reduce the estimation cost. For example, we propose a decomposition method that not only opens up for possibility of mixing, but also speeds up the estimation for simple logit models, which has implications also for traffic simulation. Moreover, we compare the utility maximization and regret minimization decision rules, and we propose a misspecification test for logit-based route choice models. The second theme is related to the estimation of static discrete choice models with large choice sets. We establish that a class of MEV models can be reformulated as dynamic discrete choice models on the networks of correlation structures. These dynamic models can then be estimated quickly using dynamic programming techniques and an efficient nonlinear optimization algorithm. Finally, the third theme focuses on structured quasi-Newton techniques for estimating discrete choice models by maximum likelihood. We examine and adapt switching methods that can be easily integrated into usual optimization algorithms (line search and trust region) to accelerate the estimation process. The proposed dynamic discrete choice models and estimation methods can be used in various discrete choice applications. In the area of big data analytics, models that can deal with large choice sets and sequential choices are important. Our research can therefore be of interest in various demand analysis applications (predictive analytics) or can be integrated with optimization models (prescriptive analytics). Furthermore, our studies indicate the potential of dynamic programming techniques in this context, even for static models, which opens up a variety of future research directions.

Inventory of SINOPS project data sets

During the SINOPS project, an optimal state of the art simulation of the marine silicon cycle is attempted employing a biogeochemical ocean general circulation model (BOGCM) through three particular time steps relevant for global (paleo-) climate. In order to tune the model optimally, results of the simulations are compared to a comprehensive data set of 'real' observations. SINOPS' scientific data management ensures that data structure becomes homogeneous throughout the project. Practical work routine comprises systematic progress from data acquisition, through preparation, processing, quality check and archiving, up to the presentation of data to the scientific community. Meta-information and analytical data are mapped by an n-dimensional catalogue in order to itemize the analytical value and to serve as an unambiguous identifier. In practice, data management is carried out by means of the online-accessible information system PANGAEA, which offers a tool set comprising a data warehouse, Graphical Information System (GIS), 2-D plot, cross-section plot, etc. and whose multidimensional data model promotes scientific data mining. Besides scientific and technical aspects, this alliance between scientific project team and data management crew serves to integrate the participants and allows them to gain mutual respect and appreciation.

The European Commission’s public consultation on the review of EU copyright rules: a response by the CREATe centre

This article presents the response of the Centre for Copyright and New Business Models in the Creative Economy (CREATe) to the consultation on reform of the EU copyright regime. Reviews the format of the consultation, notes the common problems in reporting data in such a format, and reproduces the consultation questions to which CREATe responded, together with a summary of its conclusions on topics including: (1) terms of copyright protection; (2) libraries and archives; (3) persons with disabilities; (4) remuneration of authors; (5) user-generated content; (6) respect for rights; and (7) data mining.

Modelling and Mining To Manage

In this talk, I will describe various computational modelling and data mining solutions that form the basis of how the office of Deputy Head of Department (Resources) works to serve you. These include lessons I learn about, and from, optimisation issues in resource allocation, uncertainty analysis on league tables, modelling the process of winning external grants, and lessons we learn from student satisfaction surveys, some of which I have attempted to inject into our planning processes.

Context-awareness privacy in data communications

Internet users consume online targeted advertising based on information collected about them and voluntarily share personal information in social networks. Sensor information and data from smart-phones is collected and used by applications, sometimes in unclear ways. As it happens today with smartphones, in the near future sensors will be shipped in all types of connected devices, enabling ubiquitous information gathering from the physical environment, enabling the vision of Ambient Intelligence. The value of gathered data, if not obvious, can be harnessed through data mining techniques and put to use by enabling personalized and tailored services as well as business intelligence practices, fueling the digital economy. However, the ever-expanding information gathering and use undermines the privacy conceptions of the past. Natural social practices of managing privacy in daily relations are overridden by socially-awkward communication tools, service providers struggle with security issues resulting in harmful data leaks, governments use mass surveillance techniques, the incentives of the digital economy threaten consumer privacy, and the advancement of consumergrade data-gathering technology enables new inter-personal abuses. A wide range of fields attempts to address technology-related privacy problems, however they vary immensely in terms of assumptions, scope and approach. Privacy of future use cases is typically handled vertically, instead of building upon previous work that can be re-contextualized, while current privacy problems are typically addressed per type in a more focused way. Because significant effort was required to make sense of the relations and structure of privacy-related work, this thesis attempts to transmit a structured view of it. It is multi-disciplinary - from cryptography to economics, including distributed systems and information theory - and addresses privacy issues of different natures. As existing work is framed and discussed, the contributions to the state-of-theart done in the scope of this thesis are presented. The contributions add to five distinct areas: 1) identity in distributed systems; 2) future context-aware services; 3) event-based context management; 4) low-latency information flow control; 5) high-dimensional dataset anonymity. Finally, having laid out such landscape of the privacy-preserving work, the current and future privacy challenges are discussed, considering not only technical but also socio-economic perspectives.

Discovery driven analysis on semi-structured text data

Discovery Driven Analysis (DDA) is a common feature of OLAP technology to analyze structured data. In essence, DDA helps analysts to discover anomalous data by highlighting 'unexpected' values in the OLAP cube. By giving indications to the analyst on what dimensions to explore, DDA speeds up the process of discovering anomalies and their causes. However, Discovery Driven Analysis (and OLAP in general) is only applicable on structured data, such as records in databases. We propose a system to extend DDA technology to semi-structured text documents, that is, text documents with a few structured data. Our system pipeline consists of two stages: first, the text part of each document is structured around user specified dimensions, using semi-PLSA algorithm; then, we adapt DDA to these fully structured documents, thus enabling DDA on text documents. We present some applications of this system in OLAP analysis and show how scalability issues are solved. Results show that our system can handle reasonable datasets of documents, in real time, without any need for pre-computation.