Sensitivity of predictive species distribution models to change in grain size

Predictive species distribution modelling (SDM) has become an essential tool in biodiversity conservation and management. The choice of grain size (resolution) of environmental layers used in modelling is one important factor that may affect predictions. We applied 10 distinct modelling techniques to presence-only data for 50 species in five different regions, to test whether: (1) a 10-fold coarsening of resolution affects predictive performance of SDMs, and (2) any observed effects are dependent on the type of region, modelling technique, or species considered. Results show that a 10 times change in grain size does not severely affect predictions from species distribution models. The overall trend is towards degradation of model performance, but improvement can also be observed. Changing grain size does not equally affect models across regions, techniques, and species types. The strongest effect is on regions and species types, with tree species in the data sets (regions) with highest locational accuracy being most affected. Changing grain size had little influence on the ranking of techniques: boosted regression trees remain best at both resolutions. The number of occurrences used for model training had an important effect, with larger sample sizes resulting in better models, which tended to be more sensitive to grain. Effect of grain change was only noticeable for models reaching sufficient performance and/or with initial data that have an intrinsic error smaller than the coarser grain size.

A Cladistic Analysis of Inaequalium (Coscarón & Wygodzinsky, 1984), with Information on Geographical Distribution (Diptera: Simuliidae)

The black flies of the genus Inaequalium present a Neotropical distribution, with Panama at the northern limit, and the Argentinian pampas at the southern, but do not occur in the Central Amazon. This study offers a cladistic analysis establishing a hypothesis of relationships between the species of Inaequalium. A total of 37 characters have been considered in order to establish the hypothetic phylogenetic relationships. Cerqueirellum (Py-Daniel, 1983) was considered as outgroup. Data were analyzed using Henning 86 version 1.5. Wich the ie* command and implicit enumeration a unique possible cladogram was obtained in Inaequalium with 52 steps, and a CI of 0.76 and RI of 0.81. Two well-defined clades was obtained in the resulting cladogram, the "botulibranchium" species-group, includes I. travassosi, I. souzalopesi, I. botulibranchium and I. petropoliense, and the "inaequale" species-group, includes I. rappae, I. nahimi, I. inaequale, I. leopoldense, I. subnigrum, I. diversibranchium, I. mariavulcanoae, I. nogueirai, I. beaupertuyi, I. clavibranchium and I. subclavibranchium.

Pathological Reorganization of NMDA Receptors Subunits and Postsynaptic Protein PSD-95 Distribution in Alzheimer's Disease.

In Alzheimer's disease (AD), synaptic alterations play a major role and are often correlated with cognitive changes. In order to better understand synaptic modifications, we compared alterations in NMDA receptors and postsynaptic protein PSD-95 expression in the entorhinal cortex (EC) and frontal cortex (FC; area 9) of AD and control brains. We combined immunohistochemical and image analysis methods to quantify on consecutive sections the distribution of PSD-95 and NMDA receptors GluN1, GluN2A and GluN2B in EC and FC from 25 AD and control cases. The density of stained receptors was analyzed using multivariate statistical methods to assess the effect of neurodegeneration. In both regions, the number of neuronal profiles immunostained for GluN1 receptors subunit and PSD-95 protein was significantly increased in AD compared to controls (3-6 fold), while the number of neuronal profiles stained for GluN2A and GluN2B receptors subunits was on the contrary decreased (3-4 fold). The increase in marked neuronal profiles was more prominent in a cortical band corresponding to layers 3 to 5 with large pyramidal cells. Neurons positive for GluN1 or PSD-95 staining were often found in the same localization on consecutive sections and they were also reactive for the anti-tau antibody AD2, indicating a neurodegenerative process. Differences in the density of immunoreactive puncta representing neuropile were not statistically significant. Altogether these data indicate that GluN1 and PSD-95 accumulate in the neuronal perikarya, but this is not the case for GluN2A and GluN2B, while the neuropile compartment is less subject to modifications. Thus, important variations in the pattern of distribution of the NMDA receptors subunits and PSD-95 represent a marker in AD and by impairing the neuronal network, contribute to functional deterioration.

Brazilian distribution of Amblyomma varium Koch, 1844 (Acari: Ixodidae), a common parasite of sloths (Mammalia: Xenarthra)

Amblyomma varium, commonly known in Brazil as the "carrapato-gigante-da-preguiça" (sloth's giant tick) is found from southern Central America to Argentina. The present study adds information on the geographical distribution of A. varium, as well as on their hosts, based on material deposited in the main Brazilian collections and on the available literature. Eighty-two vials, containing 191 adult specimens, deposited in five Acari collections between 1930 and 2001, were examined. These vials included data on the host and collection localities. The biology of A. varium is unknown. However it is known that, during the adult stage, the tick presents a high host specificity and is found almost exclusively on the sloths Bradypus tridactylus, B. variegatus, B.torquatus (Bradypodidae), Choloepus hoffmanni and C. didactylus (Megalonychidae). Based on the material examined, the states of Rondônia, Amazonas, Bahia and Alagoas are newly assigned to geographic distribution of A. varium in Brazil.

Temporal and spatial distribution of Leishmania mexicana infections in a population of Neotoma micropus

A 19-month mark-release-recapture study of Neotoma micropus with sequential screening for Leishmania mexicana was conducted in Bexar County, Texas, USA. The overall prevalence rate was 14.7% and the seasonal prevalence rates ranged from 3.8 to 26.7%. Nine incident cases were detected, giving an incidence rate of 15.5/100 rats/year. Follow-up of 101 individuals captured two or more times ranged from 14 to 462 days. Persistence of L. mexicana infections averaged 190 days and ranged from 104 to 379 days. Data on dispersal, density, dispersion, and weight are presented, and the role of N. micropus as a reservoir host for L. mexicana is discussed.

IS6110 restriction fragment length polymorphism of Mycobacterium tuberculosis isolated from patients with pulmonary tuberculosis in Campinas, Brazil: evidence of intercontinental distribution of strains

Tuberculosis (TB) is a major concern in developing countries. In Brazil, few genotyping studies have been conducted to verify the number of IS6110 copies present in local prevalent strains of Mycobacterium tuberculosis, the distribution and clustering of strains. IS6110 DNA fingerprinting was performed on a sample of M. tuberculosis isolates from patients with AFB smear-positive pulmonary TB, at a hospital in Brazil. The IS6110 profiles were analyzed and compared to a M. tuberculosis database of the Houston Tuberculosis Initiative, Houston, US. Seventy-six fingerprints were obtained from 98 patients. All M. tuberculosis strains had an IS6110 copy number between 5-21 allowing for differentiation of the isolates. Human immunodeficiency virus infection was confirmed in nearly half the patients of whom data was available. Fifty-eight strains had unique patterns, while 17 strains were grouped in 7 clusters (2 to 6 strains). When compared to the HTI database, 6 strains matched isolates from El Paso, Ciudad de Juarez, Houston, and New York. Recently acquired infections were documented in 19% of cases. The community transmission of infection is intense, since some clustered strains were recovered during the four-year study period. The intercontinental dissemination of M. tuberculosis strains is suspected by demonstration of identical fingerprints in a distant country.

Distribution and Schistosoma mansoni infection of Biomphalaria glabrata in different habitats in a rural area in the Jequitinhonha Valley, Minas Gerais, Brazil: environmental and epidemiological aspects

This paper examines the distribution and infection of Biomphalaria glabrata with Schistosoma mansoni in all aquatic snail habitats in a rural area in the state of Minas Gerais, Brazil, in relation to physico/biotic and behavioral factors. Snail and environmental surveys were carried out semi-annually between July 2001 and November 2002 at 106 sites. Collected snails were examined in the laboratory for infection. B. glabrata densities were highest in overflow ponds, irrigation ponds, springs, canals and wells, and lowest in fishponds and water tanks. Snail densities were higher during the hot, rainy season except for streams and canals and were statistically associated with the presence of fish, pollution, and vegetation density. Tilapia fish and an unidentified Diptera larva were found to be predators of B. glabrata but ducks were not. Twenty-four of the 25 infected snails were collected in 2001(1.4% infection rate) and only one in 2002, after mass chemotherapy. The occurrence of B. glabrata in all 11 snail habitats both at and away from water contact sites studied indicates widespread risk of human infection in the study area. In spite of the strong association between B. glabrata and tilapia in fishponds we do not recommend its use in schistosomiasis control for ecological reasons and its relative inefficiency in streams and dams.

Altered distribution of juxtaparanodal kv1.2 subunits mediates peripheral nerve hyperexcitability in type 2 diabetes mellitus.

Peripheral nerve hyperexcitability (PNH) is one of the distal peripheral neuropathy phenotypes often present in patients affected by type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM). Through in vivo and ex vivo electrophysiological recordings in db/db mice, a model of T2DM, we observed that, in addition to reduced nerve conduction velocity, db/db mice also develop PNH. By using pharmacological inhibitors, we demonstrated that the PNH is mediated by the decreased activity of K(v)1-channels. In agreement with these data, we observed that the diabetic condition led to a reduced presence of the K(v)1.2-subunits in juxtaparanodal regions of peripheral nerves in db/db mice and in nerve biopsies from T2DM patients. Together, these observations indicate that the T2DM condition leads to potassium channel-mediated PNH, thus identifying them as a potential drug target to treat some of the DPN related symptoms.

HIV behavioural surveillance in Switzerland: trends in drug consumption, injection and syringe distribution, 1993-2011

Background: As part of the second generation surveillance system for HIV/Aids in Switzerland, repeated cross-sectional surveys were conducted in 1993, 1994, 1996, 2000, 2006 and 2011 among attenders of all low threshold facilities (LTFs) with needle exchange programmes and/or supervised drug consumption rooms for injection or inhalation. The number of syringes distributed to the injectors has also been measured annually since 2000. Distribution in other settings, such as pharmacies, is also monitored nationally. Methods: Periodic surveys of LTFs have been conducted using an interviewer/self-administered questionnaire structured along four themes: socio-demographic characteristics, drug consumption, risk/preventive behaviour and health. Analysis is restricted to attenders who had injected drugs during their lifetime (IDU´s). Pearson's chi-square test and trend analysis were conducted on annual aggregated data. Trend significance was assessed using Stata's non parametric test nptrend. Results: Median age of IDU´s increased from 26 years in 1993 to 40 in 2011; most are men (78%). Total yearly number of syringes distributed by LTFs has decreased by 44% in 10 years. Use of cocaine has increased (Table 1). Injection, regular use of heroin and borrowing of syringes/needles have decreased, while sharing of other material remains stable. There are fewer new injectors; more IDU´s report substitution treatment. Most attenders had ever been tested for HIV (90% in 1993, 94% in 2011). Reported prevalence of HIV remained stable around 10%; that of HCV decreased from 62% in 2000 to 42% in 2011. Conclusions: Overall, findings indicate a decrease in injection as a means of drug consumption in that population. This interpretation is supported by data from other sources, such as a national decrease in distribution from other delivery points. Switzerland's behavioural surveillance system is sustainable and allows the HIV epidemic to be monitored among this hard-to-reach population, providing information for planning and evaluation.

Regional-scale integration of multi-scale hydrological and geophysical data using a two-step Bayesian sequential simulation approach

Significant progress has been made with regard to the quantitative integration of geophysical and hydrological data at the local scale for the purpose of improving predictions of groundwater flow and solute transport. However, extending corresponding approaches to the regional scale still represents one of the major challenges in the domain of hydrogeophysics. To address this problem, we have developed a regional-scale data integration methodology based on a two-step Bayesian sequential simulation approach. Our objective is to generate high-resolution stochastic realizations of the regional-scale hydraulic conductivity field in the common case where there exist spatially exhaustive but poorly resolved measurements of a related geophysical parameter, as well as highly resolved but spatially sparse collocated measurements of this geophysical parameter and the hydraulic conductivity. To integrate this multi-scale, multi-parameter database, we first link the low- and high-resolution geophysical data via a stochastic downscaling procedure. This is followed by relating the downscaled geophysical data to the high-resolution hydraulic conductivity distribution. After outlining the general methodology of the approach, we demonstrate its application to a realistic synthetic example where we consider as data high-resolution measurements of the hydraulic and electrical conductivities at a small number of borehole locations, as well as spatially exhaustive, low-resolution estimates of the electrical conductivity obtained from surface-based electrical resistivity tomography. The different stochastic realizations of the hydraulic conductivity field obtained using our procedure are validated by comparing their solute transport behaviour with that of the underlying ?true? hydraulic conductivity field. We find that, even in the presence of strong subsurface heterogeneity, our proposed procedure allows for the generation of faithful representations of the regional-scale hydraulic conductivity structure and reliable predictions of solute transport over long, regional-scale distances.

Clustering and hot spot detection in socio-economic spatio-temporal data

Distribution of socio-economic features in urban space is an important source of information for land and transportation planning. The metropolization phenomenon has changed the distribution of types of professions in space and has given birth to different spatial patterns that the urban planner must know in order to plan a sustainable city. Such distributions can be discovered by statistical and learning algorithms through different methods. In this paper, an unsupervised classification method and a cluster detection method are discussed and applied to analyze the socio-economic structure of Switzerland. The unsupervised classification method, based on Ward's classification and self-organized maps, is used to classify the municipalities of the country and allows to reduce a highly-dimensional input information to interpret the socio-economic landscape. The cluster detection method, the spatial scan statistics, is used in a more specific manner in order to detect hot spots of certain types of service activities. The method is applied to the distribution services in the agglomeration of Lausanne. Results show the emergence of new centralities and can be analyzed in both transportation and social terms.

Spatial distribution of schistosomiasis foci on Itamaracá Island, Pernambuco, Brazil

Acute cases of schistosomiasis have been found on the coastal area of Pernambuco, Brazil, due to environmental disturbances and disorderly occupation of the urban areas. This study identifies and spatially marks the main foci of the snail host species, Biomphalaria glabrata on Itamaracá Island. The chaotic occupation of the beach resorts has favoured the emergence of transmission foci, thus exposing residents and tourists to the risk of infection. A database covering five years of epidemiological investigation on snails infected by Schistosoma mansoni in the island was produced with information from the geographic positioning of the foci, number of snails collected, number of snails tested positive, and their infection rate. The spatial position of the foci were recorded through the Global Positioning System (GPS), and the geographical coordinates were imported by AutoCad. The software packages ArcView and Spring were used for data processing and spatial analysis. AutoCad 2000 was used to plot the pairs of coordinates obtained from GPS. Between 1998 and 2002 5009 snails, of which 12.2% were positive for S. mansoni, were collected in Forte Beach. A total of 27 foci and areas of environmental risk were identified and spatially analyzed allowing the identification of the areas exposed to varying degrees of risk.

Catherine Comiskey Describing Data

Introducing and describing data and understanding the normal distribution.

Red cell distribution width does not predict stroke severity or functional outcome.

INTRODUCTION: Red cell distribution width was recently identified as a predictor of cardiovascular and all-cause mortality in patients with previous stroke. Red cell distribution width is also higher in patients with stroke compared with those without. However, there are no data on the association of red cell distribution width, assessed during the acute phase of ischemic stroke, with stroke severity and functional outcome. In the present study, we sought to investigate this relationship and ascertain the main determinants of red cell distribution width in this population. METHODS: We used data from the Acute Stroke Registry and Analysis of Lausanne for patients between January 2003 and December 2008. Red cell distribution width was generated at admission by the Sysmex XE-2100 automated cell counter from ethylene diamine tetraacetic acid blood samples stored at room temperature until measurement. An χ(2) -test was performed to compare frequencies of categorical variables between different red cell distribution width quartiles, and one-way analysis of variance for continuous variables. The effect of red cell distribution width on severity and functional outcome was investigated in univariate and multivariate robust regression analysis. Level of significance was set at 95%. RESULTS: There were 1504 patients (72±15·76 years, 43·9% females) included in the analysis. Red cell distribution width was significantly associated to NIHSS (β-value=0·24, P=0·01) and functional outcome (odds ratio=10·73 for poor outcome, P<0·001) at univariate analysis but not multivariate. Prehospital Rankin score (β=0·19, P<0·001), serum creatinine (β=0·008, P<0·001), hemoglobin (β=-0·009, P<0·001), mean platelet volume (β=0·09, P<0·05), age (β=0·02, P<0·001), low ejection fraction (β=0·66, P<0·001) and antihypertensive treatment (β=0·32, P<0·001) were independent determinants of red cell distribution width. CONCLUSIONS: Red cell distribution width, assessed during the early phase of acute ischemic stroke, does not predict severity or functional outcome.