The conditional performance of euro bond funds: evidence from Portugal during the debt crisis

This paper evaluates the performance of a survivorship bias-free data set of Portuguese funds investing in Euro-denominated bonds by using conditional models that consider the public information available to investors when the returns are generated. We find that bond funds underperform the market significantly and by an economically relevant magnitude. This underperformance cannot be explained by the expenses they charge. Our findings support the use of conditional performance evaluation models, since we find strong evidence of both time-varying risk and performance, dependent on the slope of the term structure and the inverse relative wealth variables. We also show that survivorship bias has a significant impact on performance estimates. Furthermore, during the European debt crisis, bond fund managers performed significantly better than in non-crisis periods and were able to achieve neutral performance. This improved performance throughout the crisis seems to be related to changes in funds’ investment styles.

Impact of Public Debt on Economic Growth in Advanced Economies

This paper examines the impact of public debt on the economic growth in advanced economies over a period of 1946 to 2009, using an econometric approach. The findings suggested an inverse relationship between public debt and economic growth in advanced economies. These relationships were found to be significant as well. Model results also show that the real GDP growth rate does not decline sharply whether the public debt-to-GDP ratio is lower than 220%. The public debt-to-GDP ratio elasticity of the real growth rate shows that an increase of 1% in public debt/GDP category above 120% decreases the real GDP growth rate in 1.13%. The negative effect of public debt is only stronger on the real GDP growth rate in advanced economies when the public debt-to-GDP ratio is above 220%. Finally, these findings lead us to reassess the austerity agenda, and the governments should devise new strategies for public debt management in advanced economies, taking into account their economic and financial performance.

Escaping the debt trap: peripheral countries in prolonged debt crises and how to exit

This thesis is an interdisciplinary piece of academic research, situated within Critical Theory but engaging with other disciplines, mainly Political Economy and Politics, to tackle the topic at hand; sovereign debt crises. The thesis deals with the Problem of Debt and, more specifically, the Problem of Prolonged Sovereign Debt Crises, which is described in this thesis as the phenomenon of the “Debt Trap”. The specific question that will occupy us in this thesis is why countries appear unable to exit these prolonged debt crises. By exiting a debt crisis, we mean here a state of affairs in which a country has managed to render its debt sustainable, regain its democratic sovereignty, achieve economic recovery and, what is more, mitigate adverse effects of the crisis, especially in what human development, social inequality and poverty rates are concerned. This question is tackled through the use of an interdisciplinary approach that combines critical theory perspectives -which are grouped in two paradigms, the Subjectivity paradigm and the genealogies of Capitalism paradigm- with financialisation literature. The purpose is to form an interdisciplinary intellectual framework that will allow us to analyse with a critical perspective the two case studies of the Greek crisis from 2009 to 2015 and the Argentinean crisis from 1983 to 2005. The aim of the thesis is to develop a theoretical framework that allows us to deconstruct the various ideological approaches to these two particular cases of Debt traps, including neoclassical and neoliberal approaches, Conservative and Keynesian approaches and uncover the political, economic and class relation that underpin the prolonged crises that the two countries have experienced.

Reconciling the Irreconcilable? Sovereign Debt Restructuring and the Principles of International Law. A Law and Economics Perspective

This Thesis focuses on the principles of international law relevant to the resolution of legal disputes arising from sovereign insolvency conflicts. It attempts to contribute to the “incremental” approach literature by identifying principles, justifying their application in litigation and assessing whether they may help to reconcile the trade-offs prevalent in that context. For that purpose, this Thesis distinguishes between two different types of principles. First, it investigates the “Principles of Public International Law” (henceforth, “PIL principles”). Said category refers to norms of the law of nations which can be considered functionally and structurally similar to domestic constitutional principles (i.e., that can be regarded as “optimization” or “prima facie” requirements). This Thesis underscores the PIL principles protecting the interests of the creditors and citizens as well as the “public interest”, arguing that decision makers face a trade-off between these principles in the context of restructurings. Secondly, this Thesis inquires into the “general principles of domestic law” (henceforth, “GPDs”) which can be applied in sovereign debt restructuring. Two GPDs are identified: a “stay” on litigation and a “cram down” on dissenting creditors’ claims. Although both principles have been identified by the prior literature, this work advances a small but significant “twist” in the methodology used for that purpose: it relies exclusively on functional and comparative analysis. Moreover, this work justifies the application of said GPDs for two jurisdictions: New York and Germany. Finally, it posits that those GPDs can help to mitigate the trade-offs between PIL principles, thus reconciling the interests at stake.

Interaction Between Fiscal And Monetary Policy In A Dynamic Nonlinear Model.

The objective of this study is to verify the dynamics between fiscal policy, measured by public debt, and monetary policy, measured by a reaction function of a central bank. Changes in monetary policies due to deviations from their targets always generate fiscal impacts. We examine two policy reaction functions: the first related to inflation targets and the second related to economic growth targets. We find that the condition for stable equilibrium is more restrictive in the first case than in the second. We then apply our simulation model to Brazil and United Kingdom and find that the equilibrium is unstable in the Brazilian case but stable in the UK case.

Imigrantes bolivianos em São Paulo : a Praça Kantuta e o futebol

Universidade Estadual de Campinas . Faculdade de Educação Física

Work and excessive sleepiness among Brazilian evening high school students: effects on days off

Previous studies have revealed that students who work and study build up sleep deficits during the wrkweek, which can trigger a sleep rebound during days off. The objective of this study was to investigate the impact of working on sleepiness during days off working / non-working on sleepiness days off among high school students. The study population, aged 14-21 years, attended evening classes in São Paulo, Brazil. For the study, the students completed questionaires on living conditions, health, and work; wore actigraphs; and completed the Karolinska Sleepiness Scale (KSS). To predict sleepiness, a logistic regression analysis was performed. Excessive sleepiness was observed on the first day off among working students. Results suggest that working is a significant predictor for sleepiness and that two shifts of daily systematic activities, study and work, might lead to excessive daytime sleepiness on the first day off. Further, this observed excessive sleepiness may reflect the sleep debt accumulated during the workweek

Predicting MAOD using only a supramaximal exhaustive test

The objective of this study was to propose an alternative method (MAOD(ALT)) to estimate the maximal accumulated oxygen deficit (MAOD) using only one supramaximal exhaustive test. Nine participants performed the following tests: (a) a maximal incremental exercise test, (b) six submaximal constant workload tests, and (c) a supramaximal constant workload test. Traditional MAOD was determined by calculating the difference between predicted O(2) demand and accumulated O(2) uptake during the supramaximal test. MAOD(ALT) was established by summing the fast component of excess post-exercise oxygen consumption and the O(2) equivalent for energy provided by blood lactate accumulation, both of which were measured during the supramaximal test. There was no significant difference between MAOD (2.82 +/- 0.45 L) and MAOD(ALT) (2.77 +/- 0.37 L) (p = 0.60). The correlation between MAOD and MAOD(ALT) was also high (r = 0.78; p = 0.014). These data indicate that the MAOD(ALT) can be used to estimate the MAOD.

Tax Cost of Investment Projects: the case of ICMS credits

This article discusses the impact on the profitability of firms under Complementary Law 102/2000 (which abrogated the Law 89/96 - Kandir Law) allowing the appropriation of ICMS credits, due to investment in fixed assets goods, at a ratio of 1/48 per month. The paper seeks to demonstrate how this new system - which resulted in the transformation of the ICMS as a value added tax (VAT) consumption-type to an income-type - leads to a loss of approximately 30% of the value of credits to be recovered and the effect it generates on the cost of investment and the profits for small, medium and large firms. From the methodological point of view, it is a descriptive and quantitative research, which proceeded in three stages. Initially, we have obtained estimated value of net sales and volume of investments, based on report Painel de Competitividade prepared by the Federacao das Indtustrias do Estado de Sao Paulo (Fiesp/Serasa). Based on this information, it was possible to obtain estimates of the factors of generation of debits and credits for ICMS, using the model Credit Control of Fixed Assets (CIAP). Finally, we have calculated three indicators: (i) present value of debt recovery/value of credits, (ii) present value of debt recovery / investment value, (iii) present value of debt recovery / sales profitability. We have conclude that the system introduced by Complementary Law 102/2000 implicates great opportunity cost for firms and that legislation should be reviewed from this perspective, aiming to ensure lower costs associated with investment projects.

Book review of Mark McGillivray and Gary Smith's (eds.) "Australia and Asia", Melbourne: Oxford University Press, 1997. vii + 248 pp

The political capital invested in Australia's engagement with Asia over the past decade has sparked a lively discussion in the Australian academic community. The back cover of the book under review suggests that there are 'few bigger contemporary issues facing Australia than its relationship with Asia'. If the volume of scholarly material being produced on this issue is any indication, they are right. Like a number of similar works covering the shift in Australian foreign, defence, and trade policies towards Asia over the last decade, this book acknowledges a particular debt of gratitude to the Keating government for establishing regional engagement at the forefront of our national consciousness. Unlike some others however, this book seeks to place Australia's more recent 'discovery' of Asia into a broader historical framework.

Hierarchical determinants of capital structure

We analyze the influence of time-, firm-, industry- and country-level determinants of capital structure. First, we apply hierarchical linear modeling in order to assess the relative importance of those levels. We find that time and firm levels explain 78% of firm leverage. Second, we include random intercepts and random coefficients in order to analyze the direct and indirect influences of firm/industry/country characteristics on firm leverage. We document several important indirect influences of variables at industry and country-levels on firm determinants of leverage, as well as several structural differences in the financial behavior between firms of developed and emerging countries. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Inflation Targeting Matters: Evidence from OECD Economies` Sacrifice Ratios

Using data from OECD economies, we show that inflation targeters suffered smaller output losses during disinflations when compared to nontargeters. We also study why some countries choose to inflation target while others do not and find that higher average inflation and smaller debt levels render the adoption of the regime more likely. Applying Heckman`s procedure to control for selection bias does not alter the link between inflation targeting and less costly disinflations.

Who chooses to inflation target?

In this article, we seek what are the factors behind a country`s decision to move to Inflation Targeting. We find that high past inflation, low debt levels and the absence of a nominal exchange rate anchor increase the probability that a country will end up opting for it. (C) 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Financial leverage and tangibility of assets of Brazilian companies of agribusiness in the post-real plan period

This paper aims to study the relationship between the debt level and the asset structure of Brazilian companies of the agribusiness sector, since it is considered a current and relevant discussion: to evaluate the mechanisms for fund-raising and guarantees. The methodology of Granger`s Causality test and Autoregressive Vectors was used to conduct a comparative analysis, applied to a financial database of companies with open capital of Brazilian agribusiness, in particular the agricultural sector and Fisheries and Food and Beverages in a period of 10 years (1997-2007) from quarterly series available in the database of Economatica(R). The results demonstrated that changes in leverage generate variations in the tangibility of the companies, a fact that can be explained by the large search of funding secured by fiduciary transfer of fixed assets, which facilitates access to credit by business of the Agribusiness sector, increasing the payment time and lowering interest rates.