Business cycles, long waves, and company langevity in Birmingham area metal industries 1780-1980

This doctoral thesis originates from an observational incongruence between the perennial aims and aspirations of economic endeavour and actually recorded outcomes, which frequently seem contrary to those intended and of a recurrent, cyclical type. The research hypothesizes parallel movement between unstable business environments through time, as expressed by periodically fluctuating levels of economic activity, and the precipitation rates of industrial production companies. A major problem arose from the need to provide theoretical and empirical cohesion from the conflicting, partial and fragmented interpretations of several hundred historians and economists, without which the research question would remain unanswerable. An attempt to discover a master cycle, or superimposition theorem, failed, but was replaced by minute analysis of both the concept of cycles and their underlying data-bases. A novel technique of congregational analysis emerged, resulting in an integrated matrix of numerical history. Two centuries of industrial revolution history in England and Wales was then explored and recomposed for the first time in a single account of change, thereby providing a factual basis for the matrix. The accompanying history of the Birmingham area provided the context of research into the failure rates and longevities of firms in the city's staple metal industries. Sample specific results are obtained for company longevities in the Birmingham area. Some novel presentational forms are deployed for results of a postal questionnaire to surviving firms. Practical demonstration of the new index of national economic activity (INEA) in relation to company insolvencies leads to conclusions and suggestions for further applications of research into the tempo of change, substantial Appendices support the thesis and provide a compendium of information covering immediately contiguous domains.

Effect of processing on sulphur antioxidants in polyolefins

The effect of processing on the antioxidant activity of sulphur-containing compounds, with particular reference to nickel dialkyldithiophosphates and their corresponding di sulphides, were studied in polyolefins under melt, thermal and photo-oxidative conditions. These compounds were evaluated both at low (normal) and high (concentrates) concentrations. In general, the dithiophosphates were found to be very efficient melt stabilisers at normal concentrtion levels, and compare quite favourably with the best commercially available systems. The nickel dithiophosphates were also found to be very efficient thermal stabilisers for polyolefins, but their activity is highly dependent on the alkyl substituent in the molecule. The corresponding disulphides on the other hand showed very little activity under thermal oxidative conditions, and this was attributed to their inefficiency in scavenging alkyl peroxyl radicals since both compounds possess similar peroxidolytic activity. Furthermore, the nickel dithiophosphates were found to be excellent photo stabilisers for mildly-processed polyolefins while the corresponding disulphides only offer slight protection to the polymer. Oxidative processing of the disulphide, however, results in a dramatic improvement in their photo antioxidant activity. Thionophospho-ric acid, a major oxidation product of dithiophosphates, was also shown to have photo antioxidant activity similar to that of the disulphides. A combination of a U.V. absorber with the nickel complex and/or the disulphide resulted in a synergistic stabiliser system which was further augmented by oxidative processing. Moreover, the dilute analogues of such multicomponent stabiliser concentrates also showed excellent melt, thermal and photo-stabilising activity. The mechanistic studies carried out on the nickel complex and the corresponding disulphide clearly identified the thionophosphoric acid a a major transformation product although various triesters were formed as reaction intermediates. The mechanisms of the antioxidant action of the dithiophosphates, which is believed to involve a cyclical process similar to that shown for simple alkyl sulphides and nitroxyls, are discussed.

Supporting English language teachers doing further degrees at a distance:a web based strategy researched

This thesis explores how the world-wide-web can be used to support English language teachers doing further studies at a distance. The future of education worldwide is moving towards a requirement that we, as teacher educators, use the latest web technology not as a gambit, but as a viable tool to improve learning. By examining the literature on knowledge, teacher education and web training, a model of teacher knowledge development, along with statements of advice for web developers based upon the model are developed. Next, the applicability and viability of both the model and statements of advice are examined by developing a teacher support site (bttp://www. philseflsupport. com) according to these principles. The data collected from one focus group of users from sixteen different countries, all studying on the same distance Masters programme, is then analysed in depth. The outcomes from the research are threefold: A functioning website that is averaging around 15, 000 hits a month provides a professional contribution. An expanded model of teacher knowledge development that is based upon five theoretical principles that reflect the ever-expanding cyclical nature of teacher learning provides an academic contribution. A series of six statements of advice for developers of teacher support sites. These statements are grounded in the theoretical principles behind the model of teacher knowledge development and incorporate nine keys to effective web facilitation. Taken together, they provide a forward-looking contribution to the praxis of web supported teacher education, and thus to the potential dissemination of the research presented here. The research has succeeded in reducing the proliferation of terminology in teacher knowledge into a succinct model of teacher knowledge development. The model may now be used to further our understanding of how teachers learn and develop as other research builds upon the individual study here. NB: Appendix 4 is only available only available for consultation at Aston University Library with prior arrangement.

The role of national culture in advertising's sensitivity to business cycles:an investigation across continents

The authors conduct a systematic investigation into the cyclical sensitivity of advertising expenditures in 37 countries, covering four key media: magazines, newspapers, radio, and television. They show that advertising is considerably more sensitive to business-cycle fluctuations than the economy as a whole. Advertising behaves less cyclically in countries high in long-term orientation and power distance, but it is more cyclical in countries high in uncertainty avoidance. Furthermore, advertising is more sensitive to the business cycle in countries characterized by significant stock market pressure and few foreign-owned multinational corporations. The authors provide initial evidence on the long-term social and managerial losses incurred when companies tie ad spending too tightly to business cycles. Countries in which advertising behaves more cyclically exhibit slower growth of the advertising industry. Moreover, private-label growth is higher in countries characterized by more cyclical advertising spending, implying significant losses for brand manufacturers. Finally, an examination of 26 global companies shows that stock price performance is lower for companies that exhibit stronger procyclical advertising spending patterns.

The role of illness perceptions:psychological distress and treatment seeking delay in patients with genital warts.

This study examined the relationships between illness perceptions, psychological distress and treatment-seeking delay in genital warts patients. Sixty-six genital warts patients were approached while attending a sexual health clinic. They completed a questionnaire assessing their illness perceptions, psychological distress and treatment-seeking delay. Negative perceptions of illness consequences and control and a perceived cyclical timeline were associated with increased psychological distress. Perceived illness consequences maintained significance in a multiple regression equation, which accounted for 25% variance in distress. Depression was associated with treatment-seeking delay (r = 0.28, P = 0.03). In conclusion, illness perceptions may play an important role in the experience of psychological distress in genital warts patients. The implications of these findings for the design of health-care interventions are discussed.

Down-regulation of angiopoietin-1 expression in menorrhagia

Angiogenesis is an essential component of endometrial repair and regeneration following menses. Perturbation of this process is associated with menorrhagia, a common gynecological disorder that results in excessive menstrual bleeding. Angiopoietin-1 (Ang-1) promotes vascular maturation via the Tie-2 receptor, while angiopoietin-2 (Ang-2) is its natural antagonist that destabilizes vessels and initiates neovascularization in the presence of vascular endothelial growth factor. To test the hypothesis that menorrhagia arises as a result of poor signal for vascular maturation, we have examined the expression of Ang-1, Ang-2, and Tie-2 in endometrium throughout the menstrual cycle from 30 normal women and 28 patients with menorrhagia. Ribonuclease protection assay and Western blot analysis showed Ang-2 expression was consistently higher than Ang-1 in normal endometrium throughout the cycle. However, with menorrhagia Ang-1 mRNA and protein were not detected or down-regulated, while Ang-2 was observed at similar levels in both normal and menorrhagic endometrium resulting in a greater than a 50% decrease in the ratio of Ang-1 to Ang-2 protein. In situ hybridization and immunohistochemical studies supported these findings and revealed cyclical changes in the expression of Ang-1 and Ang-2. These results suggest that the angiopoietin/Tie-2 system promotes vascular remodeling in endometrium and loss of normal Ang-1 expression may contribute to the excessive blood loss observed in menorrhagia.

Wave kinetics of random fibre lasers

Traditional wave kinetics describes the slow evolution of systems with many degrees of freedom to equilibrium via numerous weak non-linear interactions and fails for very important class of dissipative (active) optical systems with cyclic gain and losses, such as lasers with non-linear intracavity dynamics. Here we introduce a conceptually new class of cyclic wave systems, characterized by non-uniform double-scale dynamics with strong periodic changes of the energy spectrum and slow evolution from cycle to cycle to a statistically steady state. Taking a practically important example—random fibre laser—we show that a model describing such a system is close to integrable non-linear Schrödinger equation and needs a new formalism of wave kinetics, developed here. We derive a non-linear kinetic theory of the laser spectrum, generalizing the seminal linear model of Schawlow and Townes. Experimental results agree with our theory. The work has implications for describing kinetics of cyclical systems beyond photonics.

Aggregate dividends and consumption smoothing

We show that net equity payouts from the corporate sector play a crucial role in helping individuals manage their consumption path across the business cycle. In particular, we show that, as investors' desire to smooth consumption increases, optimal aggregate dividends become both more volatile and more counter-cyclical to help counterbalance pro-cyclical labor income. These findings are robust to whether or not agency conflicts exist in the economy.

Igazolható-e az üzleti ciklus az iparágak viselkedésével? = Can business cycles be proved with the behavior of enterprises?

A dolgozat alapja egy olyan Leontief-típusú gazdaság, ahol minden egyes ágazatban egy vállalat termel, tehát monopóliumokból áll a gazdaság. A vállalatok termelnek, és a termékeiket a piacon értékesítik. A gazdaság mozgásegyenleteit a vállalati mérleg összefüggések, valamint a piaci csere után a gazdaságban, a termékek készletváltozása írja le. Az így létrejött mozgásegyenletekből arra következtethetünk, hogy a ciklusok egy ilyen modellben szükségszerűen kialakulnak, tehát az üzleti ciklus a gazdaság működéséhez hozzátartozik. Journal of Economic Literature (JEL) kód: D46, E32. = The aim of the paper is to analyze a Leontief-type economy, i.e. all firms produce only one product and only one technology. The firms sell the products on a monopolistic market. The move of this economy is controlled by the balance sheet expressions and the inventory level fluctuations. The differential equations of the move of this economy show a cyclical movement of the economy along the balanced growth path. Journal of Economic Literature (JEL) kód: D46, E32.

A New Method For Combining Detrending Techniques with Application to Business Cycle Synchronization of the New EU Members

Decomposing output into trend and cyclical components is an uncertain exercise and depends on the method applied. It is an especially dubious task for countries undergoing large structural changes, such as transition countries. Despite their deficiencies, however, univariate detrending methods are frequently adopted for both policy oriented and academic research. This paper proposes a new procedure for combining univariate detrending techniques which is based on revisions of the estimated output gaps adjusted by the variance of and the correlation among output gaps. The procedure is applied to the study of the similarity of business cycles between the euro area and new EU Member States.

Az átalakuló globális pénzügyi szabályozórendszer kérdései = Dilemmas of the changing global financial regulation system

Erősődő igény van a jelenlegi sokoldalú nemzetközi felügyeleti rendszer reformjára úgy, hogy az a nemzeti gazdaságpolitikák nemzetközi hatásait is figyelembe vegye. Ehhez át kell reformálni a jelenlegi globális pénzügyi szabályozási rendszert, de ki kell alakítani a nemzeti gazdaságpolitikák egymásra hatásának koordinációját is. Ide tartozik a globális külső sokkok csillapítására szolgáló anti-ciklikus finanszírozás, a nemzetközi adózási együttműködés fokozása, a nemzetközi adósságfinanszírozás tökéletesítése, vagy a globális fizetésieszköz-tartalékok és a fizetési rendszer viszonya. Ez utóbbi területen az SDR kiterjedtebb használatának feltételeit kell kimunkálni. A jelenlegi globális intézmények – WTO, Nemzetközi Valutaalap, Világbank – alapos megújítása elkerülhetetlen. A globális gazdasági koordináció intézményi kereteinek kidolgozása viszont még várat magára. A G20-ak csoportja – bár fontos reformokat kezdeményezett –, nem tekinthető a világgazdasági egyensúlytalanságok megoldása letéteményesének. A cél csak olyan globális intézményi struktúra lehet, amely egyaránt képes a világ nagy számú gazdaságai közötti koordinációs feladatok megoldására, s a döntések végrehajtásának kikényszerítésére. / === / The present multilateral international surveillance system needs to be reformed with an eye on international repercussions of national economic policies. The present global financial architecture, the coordination of interplays of national economic policies must be modified. An anti-cyclical financing capable of absorbing global external shocks, strengthening of international tax cooperation, improving international debt financing or the relations between global financial reserves and the global payment system might be part and parcel of this process. A more extended use of SDR could be worked out. Reforms of the present global institutions – the WTO, the IMF, the World Bank – cannot be avoided any further. Institutional frameworks of global economic coordination mechanism have still not been worked out. The Group of 20 (G-20) cannot be seen as the sole player in fighting world economic disequlibria. A global institutional system is envisaged, which is able to implement economic coordination among national economic units and to enforce the implementation of decisions taken. At present there is no global institution dealing with coherence and consistency of global issues. Reforming present institutions and/or designing new ones are possible options. The basis for such an international coordination must involve general acceptance of principles, transparent implementation, and enforcement of decisions taken.

Bródy András gazdaságiciklus-elmélete (András Bródy's theory of economic cycles)

Bródy András kutatásainak egyik központi témaköre a gazdasági mozgás vizsgálata volt. Írásunkban Bródy elméletét kívánjuk röviden áttekinteni és összefoglalni. A termelés sokszektoros leírása egyben árelméletét (értékelméletét, méréselméletét) is keretbe foglalja. Ebben a keretben a gazdasági mozgás összetett ingadozása technológiai alapon elemezhető. Bródy megközelítésében a gazdasági ciklust nem külső megrázkódások magyarázzák, hanem a termelési rendszer belső arányai és kapcsolatai. A termelési struktúrát az árak és a volumenek egyformán alakítják, ezek között nincsen kitüntetett vagy domináns tényező. Az árak és a volumenek a köztük lévő duális kapcsolatban alakulnak ki. A gazdaság mozgásegyenleteit technológiai mérlegösszefüggések, valamint a piaci csere útján a gazdaságban újraelosztásra (újratermelésre) kerülő termékek felhasználása és az eszközlekötés változása írja le. Az így meghatározott mozgásegyenletek a gazdaság természetes mozgását ciklusmozgás alakjában írják le. A technológia vagy az értékviszonyok megváltozása (sokkok) a gazdaság ciklikus mozgásának megváltozásában tükröződik. Bródy munkáiban technológiai megalapozást nyer a történelemből ismert számos jellegzetes gazdasági ciklus. / === / Economic motion and dynamics are at the heart of Andras Brody's creative output. This paper attempts a bird's-eye view of his theory of economic cycles. Brody's multi-sector modelling of production has provided a framework for price theory (the theory of value and measurement). His theory of economic motion with cyclical characteristics is technology driven. It argues that the complex web of economic cycles is determined by the proportions and interrelationships of the system of production, not by arbitrary external shocks. The structure's behaviour are driven by prices and proportions, with the duality of prices and proportions as a dominant feature. These are features in common with the Leontief models, which Brody extended to economic cycles. Brody saw economic cycles as natural motions of economic systems with accumulated assets (time lags) and market exchange of goods (demand and supply adjustment). Changes in technology or valuations (shocks) are reflected in changing patterns of motion. His model of the economy is a fine instrument that enabled him to show how the technological parameters of its system determine the frequency and other characteristics of various economic cycles identified in economic history.

Fiscal and Monetary Institutions in Central, Eastern and South-Eastern European Countries

This paper studies the role of fiscal and monetary institutions in macroeconomic stability and budgetary control in central, eastern and south-eastern European countries (CESEE) in comparison with other OECD countries. CESEE countries tend to grow faster and have more volatile output than non-CESEE OECD countries, which has implications for macroeconomic management: better fiscal and monetary institutions are needed to avoid pro-cyclical policies. The paper develops a Budgetary Discipline Index to assess whether good fiscal institutions underpin good fiscal outcomes. Even though most CESEE countries have low scores, the debt/GDP ratios declined before the crisis. This was largely the consequence of a very favourable relationship between the economic growth rate and the interest rate, but such a favourable relationship is not expected in the future. Econometric estimations confirm that better monetary institutions reduce macroeconomic volatility and that countries with better budgetary procedures have better fiscal outcomes. All these factors call for improved monetary institutions, stronger fiscal rules and better budgetary procedures in CESEE countries.

Lie-szimmetriák egy közgazdasági alkalmazása (An economic application of the Lie symmetries)

Ebben a tanulmányban ismertetjük a Nöther-tétel lényegi vonatkozásait, és kitérünk a Lie-szimmetriák értelmezésére abból a célból, hogy közgazdasági folyamatokra is alkalmazzuk a Lagrange-formalizmuson nyugvó elméletet. A Lie-szimmetriák dinamikai rendszerekre történő feltárása és viselkedésük jellemzése a legújabb kutatások eredményei e területen. Például Sen és Tabor (1990), Edward Lorenz (1963), a komplex kaotikus dinamika vizsgálatában jelent®s szerepet betöltő 3D modelljét, Baumann és Freyberger (1992) a két-dimenziós Lotka-Volterra dinamikai rendszert, és végül Almeida és Moreira (1992) a három-hullám interakciós problémáját vizsgálták a megfelelő Lie-szimmetriák segítségével. Mi most empirikus elemzésre egy közgazdasági dinamikai rendszert választottunk, nevezetesen Goodwin (1967) ciklusmodelljét. Ennek vizsgálatát tűztük ki célul a leírandó rendszer Lie-szimmetriáinak meghatározásán keresztül. / === / The dynamic behavior of a physical system can be frequently described very concisely by the least action principle. In the centre of its mathematical presentation is a specic function of coordinates and velocities, i.e., the Lagrangian. If the integral of the Lagrangian is stationary, then the system is moving along an extremal path through the phase space, and vice versa. It can be seen, that each Lie symmetry of a Lagrangian in general corresponds to a conserved quantity, and the conservation principle is explained by a variational symmetry related to a dynamic or geometrical symmetry. Briey, that is the meaning of Noether's theorem. This paper scrutinizes the substantial characteristics of Noether's theorem, interprets the Lie symmetries by PDE system and calculates the generators (symmetry vectors) on R. H. Goodwin's cyclical economic growth model. At first it will be shown that the Goodwin model also has a Lagrangian structure, therefore Noether's theorem can also be applied here. Then it is proved that the cyclical moving in his model derives from its Lie symmetries, i.e., its dynamic symmetry. All these proofs are based on the investigations of the less complicated Lotka Volterra model and those are extended to Goodwin model, since both models are one-to-one maps of each other. The main achievement of this paper is the following: Noether's theorem is also playing a crucial role in the mechanics of Goodwin model. It also means, that its cyclical moving is optimal. Generalizing this result, we can assert, that all dynamic systems' solutions described by first order nonlinear ODE system are optimal by the least action principle, if they have a Lagrangian.

Lokális energiamódszer kicsi rendben gerjesztett Liénard-egyenletekre (Local energy method for little order forced equations)

Az x''+f(x) x'+g(x) = 0 alakú Liénard-típusú differenciálegyenlet központi szerepet játszik az üzleti ciklusok Káldor-Kalecki-féle [3,4] és Goodwin-féle [2] modelljeiben, sőt egy a munkanélküliség és vállalkozás-ösztönzések ciklikus változásait leíró újabb modellben [1] is. De ugyanez a nemlineáris egyenlettípus a gerjesztett ingák és elektromos rezgőkörök elméletét is felöleli [5]. Az ezzel kapcsolatos irodalom nagyrészt a határciklusok létezését vizsgálja (pl. [5]), pedig az alapvető stabilitási kérdések jóval áttekinthetőbb módon kezelhetők, s a kapott eredmények közvetve a határciklusok létezésének feltételeit is sokkal jobban be tudják határolni. Jelen dolgozatban az egyváltozós analízis hatékony nyelvezetével olyan egyszerűen megfogalmazható eredményekhez jutunk, amelyek képesek kitágítani az üzleti és más közgazdasági ciklusok modelljeinek kereteit, illetve pl. az [1]-beli modellhez újabb szemléltető speciális eseteket is nyerünk. ____ The Liénard type differential equation of the form x00 + f(x) ¢ x0 + g(x) = 0 has a central role in business cycle models by Káldor [3], Kalecki [4] and Goodwin [2], moreover in a new model describing the cyclical behavior of unemployment and entrepreneurship [1]. The same type of nonlinear equation explains the features of forced pendulums and electric circuits [5]. The related literature discusses mainly the existence of limit cycles, although the fundamental stability questions of this topic can be managed much more easily. The achieved results also outline the conditions for the existence of limit cycles. In this work, by the effective language of real valued analysis, we obtain easy-formulated results which may broaden the frames of economic and business cycle models, moreover we may gain new illustrative particular cases for e.g., [1].