Male and female, cyclist and driver perceptions of crash risk in critical road situations

Male and Female, Cyclist and Driver Perceptions of Crash Risk in Critical Road Situations. Governments are promoting cycling but many Australians, particularly women, do not ride because they perceive it to be too risky. This research compared the risks perceived by female and male, cyclists and drivers in specific on-road situations, accounting for factors such as travel patterns and experience, perceived skill, and risk taking behaviours. Compared to their male counterparts, female cyclists and drivers gave similarly elevated perceptions of risk. These differences are not completely accounted for by cycling patterns or perceptions of skill. Thus, these gender differences are not specific to cycling, but may reflect wider differences in risk perception.

Understanding victim behaviour through offender behaviour typologies

Criminology has long sought to define and understand criminal motivations. There has, however, been less attention paid to the motivations involved in “everyday” thought and behaviour that may place someone in harm’s way. This doesn’t mean that victims are somehow motivated to become victims, but they may behave in such a way that victimisation happens as a matter of course. In the parlance of victimity, victim behaviour has often been referred to as either “victim facilitated” or “victim precipitated”. However, while some use these terms to explain the role of victim behaviour in relation to harm or loss, they actually do little to further our knowledge about the cognitive and behavioural milieu in which victimisation occurs. For example, a victim of homicide may precipitate the attack by violently confronting a partner (in retaliation for real or imagined wrongs). Another victim may facilitate domestic violence by not leaving their partner for financial reasons (“cannot afford to go out on my own”). Far from blaming the victim, understanding the motivational nature of victim behaviour can be accomplished by juxtaposing motivations for offender behaviour. This presentation applies offender motivations to victim behaviours, and presents anecdotal and research support for this approach.

Are we there yet? Australian road safety targets and road traffic crash fatalities

Background Road safety targets are widely used and provide a basis for evaluating progress in road safety outcomes against a quantified goal. In Australia, a reduction in fatalities from road traffic crashes (RTCs) is a public policy objective: a national target of no more than 5.6 fatalities per 100,000 population by 2010 was set in 2001. The purpose of this paper is to examine the progress Australia and its states and territories have made in reducing RTC fatalities, and to estimate when the 2010 target may be reached by the jurisdictions. Methods Following a descriptive analysis, univariate time-series models estimate past trends in fatality rates over recent decades. Data for differing time periods are analysed and different trend specifications estimated. Preferred models were selected on the basis of statistical criteria and the period covered by the data. The results of preferred regressions are used to determine out-of-sample forecasts of when the national target may be attained by the jurisdictions. Though there are limitations with the time series approach used, inadequate data precluded the estimation of a full causal/structural model. Results Statistically significant reductions in fatality rates since 1971 were found for all jurisdictions with the national rate decreasing on average, 3% per year since 1992. However the gains have varied across time and space, with percent changes in fatality rates ranging from an 8% increase in New South Wales 1972-1981 to a 46% decrease in Queensland 1982-1991. Based on an estimate of past trends, it is possible that the target set for 2010 may not be reached nationally, until 2016. Unsurprisingly, the analysis indicated a range of outcomes for the respective state/territory jurisdictions though these results should be interpreted with caution due to different assumptions and length of data. Conclusions Results indicate that while Australia has been successful over recent decades in reducing RTC mortality, an important gap between aspirations and achievements remains. Moreover, unless there are fairly radical ("trend-breaking") changes in the factors that affect the incidence of RTC fatalities, deaths from RTCs are likely to remain above the national target in some areas of Australia, for years to come.

Are road traffic crash fatality rates converging among OECD countries?

This article examines the trends of road traffic crash (RTC) fatality rates in OECD countries over the past four decades. Based on recent developments in the economic growth literature we propose and test the hypothesis that RTC fatality rates initially increase with economic development, peak, and then gradually decrease. The theory predicts that, as a result, the RTC fatality rates of different countries will tend to converge over time. Our results for the period 1961–2007 reveal no evidence of the convergence of RTC fatality rates across the OECD as a whole for that time period. Nevertheless, there is evidence of convergence among sub-groups of countries. This evidence may assist policymakers as an additional way of benchmarking their country's performance against that of its peers and to identify the next-closest peer in country sub-groups with superior road safety performance.

Male and female cyclist and driver perceptions of crash risk

Many drivers and non-cyclists perceive cycling as an extremely risky activity with women in particular being concerned about the risk of injury. The low rates of cycling participation by women pose a threat to the achievement of government targets for cycling participation and restrict the potential transport, health and environmental benefits that increased levels of cycling could provide. This study seeks to extend earlier research in gender and cycling by comparing the risks perceived by female and male cyclists and drivers in specific on-road situations while accounting for other potentially gender-related factors such as travel patterns and experience, perceived skill, and risk taking behaviors. In an online survey, 444 regular cyclists and 151 (non-cyclist) car drivers rated the level of risk in six situations: Failing to yield; Going through a red light; Not signaling when turning; Swerving; Tailgating; and Not checking traffic. The study found that the higher levels of risk perceived by women are not completely accounted for by differences in cycling patterns or perceptions of skill. Compared to their male counterparts, female cyclists and car drivers had similarly elevated perceptions of risk suggesting that these gender differences are not specific to cycling, but reflect wider differences in risk perception. Not all of the gender differences were consistent across cyclists and drivers. Higher levels of perceived skill were evident for male cyclists but not for male car drivers. Further research is needed to explore the robustness and interpretation of this finding.

How to tackle cybercrime before people even know they're a victim

An estimated A$75,000 is lost by Australians everyday to online fraud, according to the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission (ACCC). Given that this is based on reported crime, the real figure is likely to be much higher. It is well known that fraud, particularly online fraud, has a very low reporting rate. This also doesn’t even begin to encompass non-financial costs to victims. The real cost is likely to be much, much higher. There are many challenges to policing this type of crime, and victims who send money to overseas jurisdictions make it even harder, as does the likelihood of offenders creating false identities or simply stealing legitimate ones. But despite these challenges police have started to do something to prevent the impact and losses of online fraud. By accessing financial intelligence, police are able to identify individuals who are sending money to known high-risk countries for fraud. They then notify these people with their suspicions that they may be involved in fraud. In many cases the people don’t even know they may be victims or involved in online fraud.

Catalytic activity evaluation of industrial Pd/C catalyst via gray-box dynamic modeling and simulation of hydropurification reactor

In this paper, dynamic modeling and simulation of the hydropurification reactor in a purified terephthalic acid production plant has been investigated by gray-box technique to evaluate the catalytic activity of palladium supported on carbon (0.5 wt.% Pd/C) catalyst. The reaction kinetics and catalyst deactivation trend have been modeled by employing artificial neural network (ANN). The network output has been incorporated with the reactor first principle model (FPM). The simulation results reveal that the gray-box model (FPM and ANN) is about 32 percent more accurate than FPM. The model demonstrates that the catalyst is deactivated after eleven months. Moreover, the catalyst lifetime decreases about two and half months in case of 7 percent increase of reactor feed flowrate. It is predicted that 10 percent enhancement of hydrogen flowrate promotes catalyst lifetime at the amount of one month. Additionally, the enhancement of 4-carboxybenzaldehyde concentration in the reactor feed improves CO and benzoic acid synthesis. CO is a poison to the catalyst, and benzoic acid might affect the product quality. The model can be applied into actual working plants to analyze the Pd/C catalyst efficient functioning and the catalytic reactor performance.

A parallel approach to social network generation and agent-based epidemic simulation

Understanding the dynamics of disease spread is essential in contexts such as estimating load on medical services, as well as risk assessment and interven- tion policies against large-scale epidemic outbreaks. However, most of the information is available after the outbreak itself, and preemptive assessment is far from trivial. Here, we report on an agent-based model developed to investigate such epidemic events in a stylised urban environment. For most diseases, infection of a new individual may occur from casual contact in crowds as well as from repeated interactions with social partners such as work colleagues or family members. Our model therefore accounts for these two phenomena. Given the scale of the system, efficient parallel computing is required. In this presentation, we focus on aspects related to paralllelisation for large networks generation and massively multi-agent simulations.

Numerical simulation of anomalous infiltration in porous media

Nonlinear time-fractional diffusion equations have been used to describe the liquid infiltration for both subdiffusion and superdiffusion in porous media. In this paper, some problems of anomalous infiltration with a variable-order timefractional derivative in porous media are considered. The time-fractional Boussinesq equation is also considered. Two computationally efficient implicit numerical schemes for the diffusion and wave-diffusion equations are proposed. Numerical examples are provided to show that the numerical methods are computationally efficient.

An improved modal strain energy method for structural damage detection, 2D simulation

Structural damage detection using modal strain energy (MSE) is one of the most efficient and reliable structural health monitoring techniques. However, some of the existing MSE methods have been validated for special types of structures such as beams or steel truss bridges which demands improving the available methods. The purpose of this study is to improve an efficient modal strain energy method to detect and quantify the damage in complex structures at early stage of formation. In this paper, a modal strain energy method was mathematically developed and then numerically applied to a fixed-end beam and a three-story frame including single and multiple damage scenarios in absence and presence of up to five per cent noise. For each damage scenario, all mode shapes and natural frequencies of intact structures and the first five mode shapes of assumed damaged structures were obtained using STRAND7. The derived mode shapes of each intact and damaged structure at any damage scenario were then separately used in the improved formulation using MATLAB to detect the location and quantify the severity of damage as compared to those obtained from previous method. It was found that the improved method is more accurate, efficient and convergent than its predecessors. The outcomes of this study can be safely and inexpensively used for structural health monitoring to minimize the loss of lives and property by identifying the unforeseen structural damages.

Numerical simulation of railway track supporting system using finite-infinite and thin layer elements under impulsive loads

The present study deals with two dimensional, numerical simulation of railway track supporting system subjected to dynamic excitation force. Under plane strain condition, the coupled finite-infinite elements to represent the near and far field stress distribution and thin layer interface element was employed to model the interfacial behavior between sleepers and ballast. To account for the relative debonding, slipping and crushing that could take place in the contact area between the sleepers and ballast, modified Mohr-Coulomb criterion was adopted. Furthermore an attempt has been made to consider the elasto-plastic material non-linearity of the railway track supporting media by employing different constitutive models to represent steel, concrete and supporting materials. Based on the proposed physical and constitutive modeling a code has been developed for dynamic loads. The applicability of the developed F.E code has been demonstrated by analyzing a real railway supporting structure.

Impact of real-time traffic characteristics on freeway crash occurrence: Systematic review and meta-analysis

The development of methods for real-time crash prediction as a function of current or recent traffic and roadway conditions is gaining increasing attention in the literature. Numerous studies have modeled the relationships between traffic characteristics and crash occurrence, and significant progress has been made. Given the accumulated evidence on this topic and the lack of an articulate summary of research status, challenges, and opportunities, there is an urgent need to scientifically review these studies and to synthesize the existing state-of-the-art knowledge. This paper addresses this need by undertaking a systematic literature review to identify current knowledge, challenges, and opportunities, and then conducts a meta-analysis of existing studies to provide a summary impact of traffic characteristics on crash occurrence. Sensitivity analyses were conducted to assess quality, publication bias, and outlier bias of the various studies; and the time intervals used to measure traffic characteristics were also considered. As a result of this comprehensive and systematic review, issues in study designs, traffic and crash data, and model development and validation are discussed. Outcomes of this study are intended to provide researchers focused on real-time crash prediction with greater insight into the modeling of this important but extremely challenging safety issue.

Analysis of young driver crash data. Report to the Research Council of Oman, Muscat

Road traffic crashes are an alarming public health issue in Oman, despite ongoing improvements in traffic law enforcement practices and technology. One of the main target groups for road safety in Oman are young drivers aged 17-25 years. This report provides an overview of the characteristics of crashes in Oman involving young drivers (17-25 years) between 1st January 2009 and 31st December 2011. Although, young drivers aged 17-25 years comprise around 17% of all licence holders in Oman, they represented more than one third of all drivers involved in road traffic crashes in the country. A total of 11,101 young drivers (17-25 years) were involved in registered crashes during the study period. From this, 7,727 young drivers (69.6%) were found to be the cause of the crashes...

Crash involvement patterns of unlicensed drivers and riders in Queensland. Report to Queensland Department of Transport and Main Roads

Unlicensed driving remains a serious problem for road safety, despite ongoing improvements in traffic law enforcement practices and technology. While it does not play a direct causative role in road crashes, unlicensed driving undermines the integrity of the driver licensing system and is associated with a range of high-risk behaviours. This report examines official road crash data from Queensland for the years 2003-08 to compare the crash involvement patterns of unlicensed drivers with those of licensed drivers and explore the scope and nature of unlicensed driving. This study replicates and extends upon two previous studies examining the involvement of unlicensed drivers in crashes in Queensland (Watson, 2004a; 2004b; Watson & Steinhardt, 2006).

Crash involvement patterns of unlicensed drivers: Literature review. Report to Queensland Department of Transport and Main Roads

There is a lack of definitive evidence available relating to the extent and nature of unlicensed driving. Analysis of the crash involvement of unlicensed drivers provides an opportunity to better understand the behaviours of this group. This paper reviews the available literature relating to crash involvement patterns of unlicensed drivers. Key areas discussed include the prevalence of unlicensed driving as indicated by studies of crashes involving this group and associations between unlicensed driving and higher levels of risk-taking on the road. This paper also notes differences found in the characteristics and on-road behaviour of unlicensed drivers and the degree to which these factors, in particular alcohol and drug misuse, may influence crash involvement patterns. Drawing on Australian and international studies, this paper consolidates the available research evidence and identifies gaps in current knowledge relating to crash involvement patterns of unlicensed drivers.