Visible range plasmonic effect produced by aluminium nanoparticles embedded in amorphous silicon

We present results, obtained by means of an analytic study and a numerical simulation, about the resonant condition necessary to produce a Localized Surface Plasmonic Resonance (LSPR) effect at the surface of metal nanospheres embedded in an amorphous silicon matrix. The study is based on a Lorentz dispersive model for a-Si:H permittivity and a Drude model for the metals. Considering the absorption spectra of a-Si:H, the best choice for the metal nanoparticles appears to be aluminium, indium or magnesium. No difference has been observed when considering a-SiC:H. Finite-difference time-domain (FDTD) simulation of an Al nanosphere embedded into an amorphous silicon matrix shows an increased scattering radius and the presence of LSPR induced by the metal/semiconductor interaction under green light (560 nm) illumination. Further results include the effect of the nanoparticles shape (nano-ellipsoids) in controlling the wavelength suitable to produce LSPR. It has been shown that is possible to produce LSPR in the red part of the visible spectrum (the most critical for a-Si:H solar cells applications in terms of light absorption enhancement) with aluminium nano-ellipsoids. As an additional results we may conclude that the double Lorentz-Lorenz model for the optical functions of a-Si:H is numerically stable in 3D simulations and can be used safely in the FDTD algorithm. A further simulation study is directed to determine an optimal spatial distribution of Al nanoparticles, with variable shapes, capable to enhance light absorption in the red part of the visible spectrum, exploiting light trapping and plasmonic effects. © 2015 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

Planear e inovar : contributo para o planeamento de recursos com base nas necessidades auto-avaliadas pela população com 65 e mais anos

RESUMO - Enquadramento: O envelhecimento da população ocorre em todas as sociedades desenvolvidas, resultando num aumento da prevalência da dependência funcional, associado recorrentemente à presença de doenças crónicas. Estes novos padrões demográficos, epidemiológicos, implicando populações vulneráveis com necessidades específicas, resultam em desafios incontestáveis. Como resposta a este novo paradigma, em 2006, Portugal implementa a Rede Nacional de Cuidados Continuados Integrados (RNCCI). Finalidade/objectivos: Caracterização da população com base no perfil das necessidades auto-referidas pelas pessoas com ≥65 anos, com algum nível de independência/dependência nas actividades de vida diária e/ou com pelo menos uma doença crónica. Pretende-se, ainda, desenvolver uma metodologia que permita simular cenários que contribuam para o planeamento do número de camas para internamento de carácter permanente em Unidades de Longa Duração e Manutenção (ULDM) da RNCCI. Metodologia: Construção de dois indicadores: índice de independência/dependência e existência ou não de doenças crónicas. Análise estatística e caracterização, individual e conjunta, das variáveis sociodemográficas, socioeconómicas, auto-avaliação do estado de saúde, nível de independência/dependência e/ou existência de pelo menos uma doença crónica. Simulação de cenários com base nas metas definidas pela RNCCI para 2013. Resultados e Conclusões: Da aplicação do índice de independência/dependência, resulta que 78,8% são independentes na realização das actividades de vida diária e 21,2% apresentam algum nível de dependência. À excepção do Centro, todas as regiões apresentam padrões similares. Globalmente, os resultados obtidos vão de encontro aos enunciados na literatura internacional, realçando-se apenas alguns mais pertinentes: Observa-se uma predominância de mulheres idosas. Destaca-se também uma relação directa entre a idade e os níveis de dependência. As variáveis socioeconómicas indicam que a existência de algum nível de dependência tende a ser mais frequente entre os que têm menor escolaridade e rendimento. Em média o estado de saúde é auto-avaliado como mau, piorando com o aumento da idade e níveis de dependência mais acentuados e melhorando com o aumento da escolaridade. Da simulação de cenários destaca-se que, face às 4 camas previstas nas metas de 2013, seria de alocar em média 1,7 camas ou 1 cama ao internamento permanente em ULDM. Trabalhar em rede implica canais de comunicação. A incorporação da distribuição espacial das necessidades e serviços com recurso aos sistemas de informação geográfica torna-se numa mais-valia. Possibilita avaliar hipóteses, análises sustentadas e disseminação de informação e resultados, contribuindo para um planeamento, monitorização e avaliação mais eficaz e eficiente das actividades do sector da saúde. ---------------------------------- ABSTRACT - Background: Population aging occurs in all developed societies resulting in an increased prevalence of functional dependence, frequently associated with the presence of chronic diseases. These new demographic and epidemiological patterns, which include dependency ad vulnerability situations, with specific needs, result in undeniable challenges. In response to this new paradigm, in 2006, Portugal implements the National Network for Integrated Care (RNCCI). Aim/Objectives: Characterize the population based on the self-reported needs of ≥65 year’s people, with some level of independence/dependency in activities of daily living and/or with at least one chronic disease. Also intends to develop a methodological approach that allows scenarios simulation which contributes to the planning of the number of permanent inpatient beds in Long Term Care Units (ULDM) of RNCCI. Methods: Construction of two indicators: independence/dependence index and existence of chronic diseases. Statistical analysis and characterization, individually and jointly, of sociodemographics, socioeconomics, selfassessment of health status, level of independence/dependence and/or existence of at least one chronic disease variables. Scenarios simulation based on RNCCI targets set for 2013. Results and Conclusions: According with independence/dependence index, 78.8% are independent in carrying out the activities of daily living and 21.2% have some level of dependency. With the exception of the Centroregion, all regions have similar patterns. Generally, the results are concordant with international literature, highlighting here only some of the most relevant results: A predominance of older women is observed. A direct relationship between age and levels of dependence is emphasized. Socio-economic variables indicate that the existence of some level of dependency tends to be more frequent among those with lower income and education levels. On average, health status is self-assessed as poor, being even more critical with aging and higher dependency level. On the other hand, high education levels are related with better health status. Scenarios simulations highlights that, based on 4 beds considered in the 2013 planned goals, an average of 1.7 or 1 beds in ULDM should be allocated to permanent inpatient beds. Networking involves communication channels. The incorporation of spatial distribution of needs and services using geographical information systems becomes an added value. It enables hypothesis, evaluation, sustainable analysis and information and results dissemination, contributing to a more effective and efficient planning, monitoring and assessment of the health sector activities.

Effects of Soil Compaction and Organic Carbon Content on Preferential Flow in Loamy Field Soils

Abstract: Preferential flow and transport through macropores affect plant water use efficiency and enhance leaching of agrochemicals and the transport of colloids, thereby increasing the risk for contamination of groundwater resources. The effects of soil compaction, expressed in terms of bulk density (BD), and organic carbon (OC) content on preferential flow and transport were investigated using 150 undisturbed soil cores sampled from 15 × 15–m grids on two field sites. Both fields had loamy textures, but one site had significantly higher OC content. Leaching experiments were conducted in each core by applying a constant irrigation rate of 10 mm h−1 with a pulse application of tritium tracer. Five percent tritium mass arrival times and apparent dispersivities were derived from each of the tracer breakthrough curves and correlated with texture, OC content, and BD to assess the spatial distribution of preferential flow and transport across the investigated fields. Soils from both fields showed strong positive correlations between BD and preferential flow. Interestingly, the relationships between BD and tracer transport characteristics were markedly different for the two fields, although the relationship between BD and macroporosity was nearly identical. The difference was likely caused by the higher contents of fines and OC at one of the fields leading to stronger aggregation, smaller matrix permeability, and a more pronounced pipe-like pore system with well-aligned macropores.

Assessment of non-steroidal anti-inflammatory and analgesic pharmaceuticals in seawaters of North of Portugal: Occurrence and environmental risk

The occurrence of seven pharmaceuticals and two metabolites belonging to non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs and analgesics therapeutic classes was studied in seawaters. A total of 101 samples covering fourteen beaches and five cities were evaluated in order to assess the spatial distribution of pharmaceuticals among north Portuguese coast. Seawaters were selected in order to embrace different bathing water quality (excellent, good and sufficient). Acetaminophen, ketoprofen and the metabolite hydroxyibuprofen were detected in all the seawater samples at maximum concentrations of 584, 89.7 and 287 ng L− 1, respectively. Carboxyibuprofen had the highest seawater concentration (1227 ng L− 1). The temporal distribution of the selected pharmaceuticals during the bathing season showed that, in general, higher concentrations were detected in August and September. The environmental risk posed by the pharmaceuticals detected in seawaters towards different trophic levels (fish, daphnids and algae) was also assessed. Only diclofenac showed hazard quotients above one for fish, representing a potential risk for aquatic organisms. These results were observed in seawaters classified as excellent bathing water. Additional data is needed in order to support the identification and prioritization of risks posed by pharmaceuticals in marine environment.

Fate Hazardous elements in soils surrounding a coal-fired power plant complex

Proceedings of the 13th International UFZ-Deltares Conference on Sustainable Use and Management of Soil, Sediment and Water Resources - 9–12 June 2015 • Copenhagen, Denmark

Comparing the performance of geostatistical models with additional information from covariates for sewage plume characterization

In this work, kriging with covariates is used to model and map the spatial distribution of salinity measurements gathered by an autonomous underwater vehicle in a sea outfall monitoring campaign aiming to distinguish the effluent plume from the receiving waters and characterize its spatial variability in the vicinity of the discharge. Four different geostatistical linear models for salinity were assumed, where the distance to diffuser, the west-east positioning, and the south-north positioning were used as covariates. Sample variograms were fitted by the Mat`ern models using weighted least squares and maximum likelihood estimation methods as a way to detect eventual discrepancies. Typically, the maximum likelihood method estimated very low ranges which have limited the kriging process. So, at least for these data sets, weighted least squares showed to be the most appropriate estimation method for variogram fitting. The kriged maps show clearly the spatial variation of salinity, and it is possible to identify the effluent plume in the area studied. The results obtained show some guidelines for sewage monitoring if a geostatistical analysis of the data is in mind. It is important to treat properly the existence of anomalous values and to adopt a sampling strategy that includes transects parallel and perpendicular to the effluent dispersion.

From the portolan chart of the mediterranean to the latitude chart of the atlantic

Thesis submitted to the Instituto Superior de Estatística e Gestão de Informação da Universidade Nova de Lisboa in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the Degree of Doctor of Philosophy in Information Management – Geographic Information Systems

Spatio-temporal analyses of the relationship between armed conflict and climate change in the eastern Africa

Dissertation submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the Degree of Master of Science in Geospatial Technologies.

Institutions and firm formation: An empirical analysis of Portuguese municipalities

A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Economics from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics

Analysis and simulation of social unrest in Europe: towards understanding social unrest in Europe

Dissertation submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the Degree of Master of Science in Geospatial Technologies

Phlebotominae sand flies associated with a tegumentary leishmaniasis outbreak, Tucumán Province, Argentina

The distribution of sand flies and cases of tegumentary leishmaniasis in the area surrounding JB Alberd city, and the proximities of Catamarca province were studied, after an increase of reported cases from JB Alberdi, Tucumán province, in 2003. Of 14 confirmed cases, 57% were females and 57% were less than 15 years old, suggesting peridomestic transmission. However, 86% of them lived close to the Marapa river forest gallery and related wooded areas. Over 1,013 sand flies were collected; Lutzomyia neivai (Pinto, 1926) was prevalent at all the sites (92.3%), while Lutzomyia migonei (França, 1920) (6.7%) and Lu. cortelezzii (Brèthes, 1923) (1%) were also found. The spatial distribution of Lu. neivai overlapped that of the cases, with higher abundance in microfocal hot spots close to the river in stable vegetated habitats or modified habitats with shadow and animal blood sources. The cumulative outcome of anthropic, ecological and climatic factors could have contributed to the onset of the outbreak.

Exploratory analysis of OpenStreetMap for land use classification

In the last years, volunteers have been contributing massively to what we know nowadays as Volunteered Geographic Information. This huge amount of data might be hiding a vast geographical richness and therefore research needs to be conducted to explore their potential and use it in the solution of real world problems. In this study we conduct an exploratory analysis of data from the OpenStreetMap initiative. Using the Corine Land Cover database as reference and continental Portugal as the study area, we establish a possible correspondence between both classification nomenclatures, evaluate the quality of OpenStreetMap polygon features classification against Corine Land Cover classes from level 1 nomenclature, and analyze the spatial distribution of OpenStreetMap classes over continental Portugal. A global classification accuracy around 76% and interesting coverage areas’ values are remarkable and promising results that encourages us for future research on this topic.

Malacological survey of Biomphalaria snails in municipalities along the Estrada Real in the southeast of the State of Minas Gerais, Brazil

INTRODUCTION: The increasing practice of ecotourism and rural tourism in the State of Minas Gerais, Brazil, highlights the importance of studies concerning the occurrence of potential intermediate hosts of Schistosoma mansoni. This study aimed to identify species of Biomphalaria snails in municipalities along the Estrada Real, an important Brazilian tourism project. METHODS: The specimens were collected in different water collections of 36 municipalities along the Estrada Real in the southeast of the State of Minas Gerais. Biomphalaria species were characterized using both morphological and molecular approaches. The research was conducted between August 2005 and September 2009 and all the sites visited were georeferenced using GPS. RESULTS: Six Biomphalaria species were found in 30 of the 36 municipalities studied: glabrata, tenagophila, straminea, peregrina, occidentalis and schrammi. The first three species of Biomphalaria, recognized as intermediate hosts of S. mansoni, were present in 33.3%, 47.2% and 8.3% of the municipalities studied, respectively. The mollusks were found in different types of water collections and no infection by S. mansoni was detected. The highest occurrence of Biomphalaria concentration was verified in the area covered by the Caminho Novo route (Diamantina/MG to Rio de Janeiro/RJ). CONCLUSIONS: Considering the occurrence of schistosomiasis in the State of Minas Gerais and the socioeconomic repercussions involved in the Estrada Real Project, this work focuses on the vulnerability of water collections due to the presence of Biomphalaria mollusks and emphasizes the need for epidemiological surveillance and sanitary and educational measures integrated with the local community and tourism sectors.

Métodos estatísticos aplicados à modelação de dados oncológicos

RESUMO: A estrutura demográfica portuguesa é marcada por baixas taxas de natalidade e mortalidade, onde a população idosa representa uma fatia cada vez mais representativa, fruto de uma maior longevidade. A incidência do cancro, na sua generalidade, é maior precisamente nessa classe etária. A par de outras doenças igualmente lesivas (e.g. cardiovasculares, degenerativas) cuja incidência aumenta com a idade, o cancro merece relevo. Estudos epidemiológicos apresentam o cancro como líder mundial na mortalidade. Em países desenvolvidos, o seu peso representa 25% do número total de óbitos, percentagem essa que mais que duplica noutros países. A obesidade, a baixa ingestão de frutas e vegetais, o sedentarismo, o consumo de tabaco e a ingestão de álcool, configuram-se como cinco dos fatores de risco presentes em 30% das mortes diagnosticadas por cancro. A nível mundial e, em particular no Sul de Portugal, os cancros do estômago, recto e cólon apresentam elevadas taxas de incidência e de mortalidade. Do ponto de vista estritamente económico, o cancro é a doença que mais recursos consome enquanto que do ponto de vista físico e psicológico é uma doença que não limita o seu raio de ação ao doente. O cancro é, portanto, uma doença sempre atual e cada vez mais presente, pois reflete os hábitos e o ambiente de uma sociedade, não obstante as características intrínsecas a cada indivíduo. A adoção de metodologia estatística aplicada à modelação de dados oncológicos é, sobretudo, valiosa e pertinente quando a informação é oriunda de Registos de Cancro de Base Populacional (RCBP). A pertinência é justificada pelo fato destes registos permitirem aferir numa população específica, o risco desta sofrer e/ou vir a sofrer de uma dada neoplasia. O peso que as neoplasias do estômago, cólon e recto assumem foi um dos elementos que motivou o presente estudo que tem por objetivo analisar tendências, projeções, sobrevivências relativas e a distribuição espacial destas neoplasias. Foram considerados neste estudo todos os casos diagnosticados no período 1998-2006, pelo RCBP da região sul de Portugal (ROR-Sul). O estudo descritivo inicial das taxas de incidência e da tendência em cada uma das referidas neoplasias teve como base uma única variável temporal - o ano de diagnóstico - também designada por período. Todavia, uma metodologia que contemple apenas uma única variável temporal é limitativa. No cancro, para além do período, a idade à data do diagnóstico e a coorte de nascimento, são variáveis temporais que poderão prestar um contributo adicional na caracterização das taxas de incidência. A relevância assumida por estas variáveis temporais justificou a sua inclusão numaclasse de modelos designada por modelos Idade-Período-Coorte (Age-Period-Cohort models - APC), utilizada na modelação das taxas de incidência para as neoplasias em estudo. Os referidos modelos permitem ultrapassar o problema de relações não lineares e/ou de mudanças súbitas na tendência linear das taxas. Nos modelos APC foram consideradas a abordagem clássica e a abordagem com recurso a funções suavizadoras. A modelação das taxas foi estratificada por sexo. Foram ainda estudados os respectivos submodelos (apenas com uma ou duas variáveis temporais). Conhecido o comportamento das taxas de incidência, uma questão subsequente prende-se com a sua projeção em períodos futuros. Porém, o efeito de mudanças estruturais na população, ao qual Portugal não é alheio, altera substancialmente o número esperado de casos futuros com cancro. Estimativas da incidência de cancro a nível mundial obtidas a partir de projeções demográficas apontam para um aumento de 25% dos casos de cancro nas próximas duas décadas. Embora a projeção da incidência esteja associada a alguma incerteza, as projeções auxiliam no planeamento de políticas de saúde para a afetação de recursos e permitem a avaliação de cenários e de intervenções que tenham como objetivo a redução do impacto do cancro. O desconhecimento de projeções da taxa de incidência destas neoplasias na área abrangida pelo ROR-Sul, levou à utilização de modelos de projeção que diferem entre si quanto à sua estrutura, linearidade (ou não) dos seus coeficientes e comportamento das taxas na série histórica de dados (e.g. crescente, decrescente ou estável). Os referidos modelos pautaram-se por duas abordagens: (i)modelos lineares no que concerne ao tempo e (ii) extrapolação de efeitos temporais identificados pelos modelos APC para períodos futuros. Foi feita a projeção das taxas de incidência para os anos de 2007 a 2010 tendo em conta o género, idade e neoplasia. É ainda apresentada uma estimativa do impacto económico destas neoplasias no período de projeção. Uma questão pertinente e habitual no contexto clínico e a que o presente estudo pretende dar resposta, reside em saber qual a contribuição da neoplasia em si para a sobrevivência do doente. Nesse sentido, a mortalidade por causa específica é habitualmente utilizada para estimar a mortalidade atribuível apenas ao cancro em estudo. Porém, existem muitas situações em que a causa de morte é desconhecida e, mesmo que esta informação esteja disponível através dos certificados de óbito, não é fácil distinguir os casos em que a principal causa de morte é devida ao cancro. A sobrevivência relativa surge como uma medida objetiva que não necessita do conhecimento da causa específica da morte para o seu cálculo e dar-nos-á uma estimativa da probabilidade de sobrevivência caso o cancro em análise, num cenário hipotético, seja a única causa de morte. Desconhecida a principal causa de morte nos casos diagnosticados com cancro no registo ROR-Sul, foi determinada a sobrevivência relativa para cada uma das neoplasias em estudo, para um período de follow-up de 5 anos, tendo em conta o sexo, a idade e cada uma das regiões que constituem o registo. Foi adotada uma análise por período e as abordagens convencional e por modelos. No epílogo deste estudo, é analisada a influência da variabilidade espaço-temporal nas taxas de incidência. O longo período de latência das doenças oncológicas, a dificuldade em identificar mudanças súbitas no comportamento das taxas, populações com dimensão e riscos reduzidos, são alguns dos elementos que dificultam a análise da variação temporal das taxas. Nalguns casos, estas variações podem ser reflexo de flutuações aleatórias. O efeito da componente temporal aferida pelos modelos APC dá-nos um retrato incompleto da incidência do cancro. A etiologia desta doença, quando conhecida, está associada com alguma frequência a fatores de risco tais como condições socioeconómicas, hábitos alimentares e estilo de vida, atividade profissional, localização geográfica e componente genética. O “contributo”, dos fatores de risco é, por vezes, determinante e não deve ser ignorado. Surge, assim, a necessidade em complementar o estudo temporal das taxas com uma abordagem de cariz espacial. Assim, procurar-se-á aferir se as variações nas taxas de incidência observadas entre os concelhos inseridos na área do registo ROR-Sul poderiam ser explicadas quer pela variabilidade temporal e geográfica quer por fatores socioeconómicos ou, ainda, pelos desiguais estilos de vida. Foram utilizados os Modelos Bayesianos Hierárquicos Espaço-Temporais com o objetivo de identificar tendências espaço-temporais nas taxas de incidência bem como quantificar alguns fatores de risco ajustados à influência simultânea da região e do tempo. Os resultados obtidos pela implementação de todas estas metodologias considera-se ser uma mais valia para o conhecimento destas neoplasias em Portugal.------------ABSTRACT: mortality rates, with the elderly being an increasingly representative sector of the population, mainly due to greater longevity. The incidence of cancer, in general, is greater precisely in that age group. Alongside with other equally damaging diseases (e.g. cardiovascular,degenerative), whose incidence rates increases with age, cancer is of special note. In epidemiological studies, cancer is the global leader in mortality. In developed countries its weight represents 25% of the total number of deaths, with this percentage being doubled in other countries. Obesity, a reduce consumption of fruit and vegetables, physical inactivity, smoking and alcohol consumption, are the five risk factors present in 30% of deaths due to cancer. Globally, and in particular in the South of Portugal, the stomach, rectum and colon cancer have high incidence and mortality rates. From a strictly economic perspective, cancer is the disease that consumes more resources, while from a physical and psychological point of view, it is a disease that is not limited to the patient. Cancer is therefore na up to date disease and one of increased importance, since it reflects the habits and the environment of a society, regardless the intrinsic characteristics of each individual. The adoption of statistical methodology applied to cancer data modelling is especially valuable and relevant when the information comes from population-based cancer registries (PBCR). In such cases, these registries allow for the assessment of the risk and the suffering associated to a given neoplasm in a specific population. The weight that stomach, colon and rectum cancers assume in Portugal was one of the motivations of the present study, that focus on analyzing trends, projections, relative survival and spatial distribution of these neoplasms. The data considered in this study, are all cases diagnosed between 1998 and 2006, by the PBCR of Portugal, ROR-Sul.Only year of diagnosis, also called period, was the only time variable considered in the initial descriptive analysis of the incidence rates and trends for each of the three neoplasms considered. However, a methodology that only considers one single time variable will probably fall short on the conclusions that could be drawn from the data under study. In cancer, apart from the variable period, the age at diagnosis and the birth cohort are also temporal variables and may provide an additional contribution to the characterization of the incidence. The relevance assumed by these temporal variables justified its inclusion in a class of models called Age-Period-Cohort models (APC). This class of models was used for the analysis of the incidence rates of the three cancers under study. APC models allow to model nonlinearity and/or sudden changes in linear relationships of rate trends. Two approaches of APC models were considered: the classical and the one using smoothing functions. The models were stratified by gender and, when justified, further studies explored other sub-models where only one or two temporal variables were considered. After the analysis of the incidence rates, a subsequent goal is related to their projections in future periods. Although the effect of structural changes in the population, of which Portugal is not oblivious, may substantially change the expected number of future cancer cases, the results of these projections could help planning health policies with the proper allocation of resources, allowing for the evaluation of scenarios and interventions that aim to reduce the impact of cancer in a population. Worth noting that cancer incidence worldwide obtained from demographic projections point out to an increase of 25% of cancer cases in the next two decades. The lack of projections of incidence rates of the three cancers under study in the area covered by ROR-Sul, led us to use a variety of forecasting models that differ in the nature and structure. For example, linearity or nonlinearity in their coefficients and the trend of the incidence rates in historical data series (e.g. increasing, decreasing or stable).The models followed two approaches: (i) linear models regarding time and (ii) extrapolation of temporal effects identified by the APC models for future periods. The study provide incidence rates projections and the numbers of newly diagnosed cases for the year, 2007 to 2010, taking into account gender, age and the type of cancer. In addition, an estimate of the economic impact of these neoplasms is presented for the projection period considered. This research also try to address a relevant and common clinical question in these type of studies, regarding the contribution of the type of cancer to the patient survival. In such studies, the primary cause of death is commonly used to estimate the mortality specifically due to the cancer. However, there are many situations in which the cause of death is unknown, or, even if this information is available through the death certificates, it is not easy to distinguish the cases where the primary cause of death is the cancer. With this in mind, the relative survival is an alternative measure that does not need the knowledge of the specific cause of death to be calculated. This estimate will represent the survival probability in the hypothetical scenario of a certain cancer be the only cause of death. For the patients with unknown cause of death that were diagnosed with cancer in the ROR-Sul, the relative survival was calculated for each of the cancers under study, for a follow-up period of 5 years, considering gender, age and each one of the regions that are part the registry. A period analysis was undertaken, considering both the conventional and the model approaches. In final part of this study, we analyzed the influence of space-time variability in the incidence rates. The long latency period of oncologic diseases, the difficulty in identifying subtle changes in the rates behavior, populations of reduced size and low risk are some of the elements that can be a challenge in the analysis of temporal variations in rates, that, in some cases, can reflect simple random fluctuations. The effect of the temporal component measured by the APC models gives an incomplete picture of the cancer incidence. The etiology of this disease, when known, is frequently associated to risk factors such as socioeconomic conditions, eating habits and lifestyle, occupation, geographic location and genetic component. The "contribution"of such risk factors is sometimes decisive in the evolution of the disease and should not be ignored. Therefore, there was the need to consider an additional approach in this study, one of spatial nature, addressing the fact that changes in incidence rates observed in the ROR-Sul area, could be explained either by temporal and geographical variability or by unequal socio-economic or lifestyle factors. Thus, Bayesian hierarchical space-time models were used with the purpose of identifying space-time trends in incidence rates together with the the analysis of the effect of the risk factors considered in the study. The results obtained and the implementation of all these methodologies are considered to be an added value to the knowledge of these neoplasms in Portugal.

Epidemiological aspects of human and canine visceral leishmaniasis in Montes Claros, State of Minas Gerais, Brazil, between 2007 and 2009

INTRODUCTION: Visceral leishmaniasis (VL) is an expanding zoonosis in Brazil and is becoming urbanized in several Brazilian regions. This study aims to describe the epidemiological features of human and canine VL in the municipality of Montes Claros, State of Minas Gerais, by focusing on their spatial distribution. METHODS: Data concerning human cases and reactive dogs for VL from 2007 to 2009 were obtained from the Information System for Disease Notification (SINAN) and from reports of the local Centro de Controle de Zoonoses (CCZ), respectively. The addresses of human and canine cases have been georeferenced and localized in thematic maps, allowing their spatial visualization as well as the identification of areas at risk of VL transmission. RESULTS: Ninety-five cases of human VL were reported in the period. The 0-9-year-old age group (48.4%) was the most affected, within which the majority consisted of male patients (64%). Of the samples collected for the canine serological survey, 2,919 (6.3%) were reactive to VL. The spatial localization of these cases shows that the disease was scattered in the urban area of the municipality. Areas showing a higher dissemination risk were concentrated in the central, northwestern, and southern regions of the city. CONCLUSIONS: Identifying the areas most at risk in urban Montes Claros may help guide actions toward local epidemiological vigilance and control.