Modelling world investment markets using threshold conditional correlation models

In this paper we propose a parsimonious regime-switching approach to model the correlations between assets, the threshold conditional correlation (TCC) model. This method allows the dynamics of the correlations to change from one state (or regime) to another as a function of observable transition variables. Our model is similar in spirit to Silvennoinen and Teräsvirta (2009) and Pelletier (2006) but with the appealing feature that it does not suffer from the course of dimensionality. In particular, estimation of the parameters of the TCC involves a simple grid search procedure. In addition, it is easy to guarantee a positive definite correlation matrix because the TCC estimator is given by the sample correlation matrix, which is positive definite by construction. The methodology is illustrated by evaluating the behaviour of international equities, govenrment bonds and major exchange rates, first separately and then jointly. We also test and allow for different parts in the correlation matrix to be governed by different transition variables. For this, we estimate a multi-threshold TCC specification. Further, we evaluate the economic performance of the TCC model against a constant conditional correlation (CCC) estimator using a Diebold-Mariano type test. We conclude that threshold correlation modelling gives rise to a significant reduction in portfolio´s variance.

Correlation of intra- and extraepidermal CD8 T cell numbers with development of psoriatic epidermal pathology

The development of psoriatic plaques is T cell dependent. Recently, Th17 CD4 T cells have been proposed to be the main effector cells. However, development of psoriasis is critically dependent on accumulation of epidermal T cells, among the majority express CD8. Here we show that numbers of epidermal CD8 T cells correlated with development of psoriasis in human biopsies, and that blockade of CD8 T cells by depleting antibodies inhibited development of psoriasis in the AGR xenotransplantation mouse model. In human dermis, both CD4 and CD8 T cell numbers correlated significantly with epidermal pathology, indicating a role for dermal CD4 T cells in orchestrating the development of psoriasiform changes induced by epidermis-infiltrating CD8 T cells.

Ecological correlations between food availability and mortality: more than you can eat?

Introduction: There is little information regarding the impact of diet on disease incidence and mortality in Switzerland. Objectives: We aimed at assessing the associations between food availability and disease using ecological correlations. Methods: Time-trend ecologic study for period 1970 to 2009. Food availability was measured through the FAO food balance sheets. Standardized mortality rates (SMRs) were obtained from the Swiss Federal Office of Statistics. Cancer incidence data was obtained from the WHO Health for all database and the Vaud cancer registry. Association between food availability and mortality/incidence was assessed at lags 0, 5, 10 and 15 years by Spearman correlation. Results: Alcoholic beverages and fruit availability were positively associated with SMRs from all types of cardiovascular disease, while fish availability was negatively associated. Animal products, meat and animal fats were positively associated with SMR from ischemic heart disease only. For cancers, opposite results were found whether the association used SMRs or incidence rates. For all cancers, alcoholic beverages and fruits were positively associated with SMRs but negatively associated with incidence rates. Similar findings were obtained for all other foods, with the exception of vegetables, which were weakly and negatively associated with SMRs and incidence rates. Finally, a 15 years lag time reversed the association for animal and vegetal products, weakened the association for alcohol and fruits and strengthened the association for fish. Conclusion: Ecologic associations between food availability and disease vary considerably whether mortality or incidence rates are used. Great care should be taken when interpreting the results.

Spatial analysis of the relationship between mortality from cardiovascular and cerebrovascular disease and drinking water hardness.

Previously published scientific papers have reported a negative correlation between drinking water hardness and cardiovascular mortality. Some ecologic and case-control studies suggest the protective effect of calcium and magnesium concentration in drinking water. In this article we present an analysis of this protective relationship in 538 municipalities of Comunidad Valenciana (Spain) from 1991-1998. We used the Spanish version of the Rapid Inquiry Facility (RIF) developed under the European Environment and Health Information System (EUROHEIS) research project. The strategy of analysis used in our study conforms to the exploratory nature of the RIF that is used as a tool to obtain quick and flexible insight into epidemiologic surveillance problems. This article describes the use of the RIF to explore possible associations between disease indicators and environmental factors. We used exposure analysis to assess the effect of both protective factors--calcium and magnesium--on mortality from cerebrovascular (ICD-9 430-438) and ischemic heart (ICD-9 410-414) diseases. This study provides statistical evidence of the relationship between mortality from cardiovascular diseases and hardness of drinking water. This relationship is stronger in cerebrovascular disease than in ischemic heart disease, is more pronounced for women than for men, and is more apparent with magnesium than with calcium concentration levels. Nevertheless, the protective nature of these two factors is not clearly established. Our results suggest the possibility of protectiveness but cannot be claimed as conclusive. The weak effects of these covariates make it difficult to separate them from the influence of socioeconomic and environmental factors. We have also performed disease mapping of standardized mortality ratios to detect clusters of municipalities with high risk. Further standardization by levels of calcium and magnesium in drinking water shows changes in the maps when we remove the effect of these covariates.

The role of polymerase chain reaction of high-risk human papilloma virus in the screening of high-grade squamous intraepithelial lesions in the anal mucosa of human immunodeficiency virus-positive males having sex with males.

OBJECTIVES To evaluate the advantages of cytology and PCR of high-risk human papilloma virus (PCR HR-HPV) infection in biopsy-derived diagnosis of high-grade squamous intraepithelial lesions (HSIL = AIN2/AIN3) in HIV-positive men having sex with men (MSM). METHODS This is a single-centered study conducted between May 2010 and May 2014 in patients (n = 201, mean age 37 years) recruited from our outpatient clinic. Samples of anal canal mucosa were taken into liquid medium for PCR HPV analysis and for cytology. Anoscopy was performed for histology evaluation. RESULTS Anoscopy showed 33.8% were normal, 47.8% low-grade squamous intraepithelial lesions (LSIL), and 18.4% HSIL; 80.2% had HR-HPV. PCR of HR-HPV had greater sensitivity than did cytology (88.8% vs. 75.7%) in HSIL screening, with similar positive (PPV) and negative predictive value (NPV) of 20.3 vs. 22.9 and 89.7 vs. 88.1, respectively. Combining both tests increased the sensitivity and NPV of HSIL diagnosis to 100%. Correlation of cytology vs. histology was, generally, very low and PCR of HR-HPV vs. histology was non-existent (<0.2) or low (<0.4). Area under the receiver operating characteristics (AUROC) curve analysis of cytology and PCR HR-HPV for the diagnosis of HSIL was poor (<0.6). Multivariate regression analysis showed protective factors against HSIL were: viral suppression (OR: 0.312; 95%CI: 0.099-0.984), and/or syphilis infection (OR: 0.193; 95%CI: 0.045-0.827). HSIL risk was associated with HPV-68 genotype (OR: 20.1; 95%CI: 2.04-197.82). CONCLUSIONS When cytology and PCR HR-HPV findings are normal, the diagnosis of pre-malignant HSIL can be reliably ruled-out in HIV-positive patients. HPV suppression with treatment protects against the appearance of HSIL.

Correlation between TH1 response standard cytokines as biomarkers in patients with the delta virus in the western Brazilian Amazon

Hepatitis D virus (HDV) is endemic in the Amazon Region and its pathophysiology is the most severe among viral hepatitis. Treatment is performed with pegylated interferon and the immune response appears to be important for infection control. HDV patients were studied: untreated and polymerase chain reaction (PCR) positive (n = 9), anti-HDV positive and PCR negative (n = 8), and responders to treatment (n = 12). The cytokines, interleukin (IL)-2 (p = 0.0008) and IL-12 (p = 0.02) were differentially expressed among the groups and were also correlated (p = 0.0143). Future studies will be conducted with patients at different stages of treatment, associating the viral load with serum cytokines produced, thereby attempting to establish a prognostic indicator of the infection.

Validation transculturelle de l'Oswestry disability index en français [Cross-cultural validation of the Oswestry disability index in French]

AIM: The aim of this study was to interpret and validate a French version of the Oswestry disability index (ODI), using a cross-cultural validation method. The validity and reliability of the questionnaire was assessed in order to ensure the psychometric characteristics. METHOD: The cross-cultural validation was carried out according to Beaton's methodology. The study was conducted with 41 patients suffering from low back pain. The correlation between the ODI and the Roland-Morris disability questionnaire (RMDQ), the medical outcome survey short form-36 (MOS SF-36) and a pain visual analogical scale (VAS) was assessed. RESULTS: The validity of the Oswestry questionnaire was studied using the Cronbach Alpha coefficient calculation: 0.87 (n=36). The significant correlation between the ODI and RMDQ was 0.8 (P<0.001, n=41) and 0.71 (P<0.001, n=36) for the pain VAS. The correlation between the ODI and certain subscales (physical functioning 0.7 (P<0.001, n=41), physical role 0.49 et bodily pain 0.73 (P<0.001, n=41)) of the MOS SF-36 were equally significant. The reproducibility of the ODI was calculated using the Wilcoxon matched pairs test: there was no significant difference for eight out of ten sections or for the final score. CONCLUSION: This French translation of the ODI should be considered as valid and reliable. It should be used for any future clinical studies carried out using French language patients. Complimentary studies must be completed in order to assess its sensitivity to change in the event of any modifications in the patients functional capacity.

Role of Age and Sex in the Diagnosis of Early-stage Malignant Melanoma: A Cross-Sectional study.

Age and sex have been identified as predictors of outcome in malignant melanoma (MM). This aim of this multicentre, cross-sectional study was to analyse the role of age and sex as explanatory variables for the diagnosis of thin MM. A total of 2430 patients with MM were recruited. Cases of in situ-T1 MM were more frequent than T2-T4 MM (56.26% vs. 43.74%). Breslow thickness increased throughout decades of life (analysis of variance (ANOVA) p < 0.001), with a weak correlation between Breslow thickness and patient's age (r   = 0.202, p < 0.001). Breslow thickness was significantly less in women (1.79 vs. 2.38 mm, p = 0.0001). Binary logistic regression showed a significant (p < 0.001) odds ratio for age 0-29 years (1.18), and 30-59 years (1.16), and for women (1.09). Age and sex explained 3.64% of the variation observed in Tis-T1 frequency (R2 = 0.0364). Age and sex appear to explain a low percentage of the variation in the early detection of MM.

Evolution of the correlation between expression divergence and protein divergence in mammals.

Divergence of protein sequences and gene expression patterns are two fundamental mechanisms that generate organismal diversity. Here, we have used genome and transcriptome data from eight mammals and one bird to study the positive correlation of these two processes throughout mammalian evolution. We demonstrate that the correlation is stable over time and most pronounced in neural tissues, which indicates that it is the result of strong negative selection. The correlation is not driven by genes with specific functions and may instead best be viewed as an evolutionary default state, which can nevertheless be evaded by certain gene types. In particular, genes with developmental and neural functions are skewed toward changes in gene expression, consistent with selection against pleiotropic effects associated with changes in protein sequences. Surprisingly, we find that the correlation between expression divergence and protein divergence is not explained by between-gene variation in expression level, tissue specificity, protein connectivity, or other investigated gene characteristics, suggesting that it arises independently of these gene traits. The selective constraints on protein sequences and gene expression patterns also fluctuate in a coordinate manner across phylogenetic branches: We find that gene-specific changes in the rate of protein evolution in a specific mammalian lineage tend to be accompanied by similar changes in the rate of expression evolution. Taken together, our findings highlight many new aspects of the correlation between protein divergence and expression divergence, and attest to its role as a fundamental property of mammalian genome evolution.

Comparison of early cortical networks in efficient and inefficient visual search: an event-related potential study.

Functional magnetic resonance imaging studies have indicated that efficient feature search (FS) and inefficient conjunction search (CS) activate partially distinct frontoparietal cortical networks. However, it remains a matter of debate whether the differences in these networks reflect differences in the early processing during FS and CS. In addition, the relationship between the differences in the networks and spatial shifts of attention also remains unknown. We examined these issues by applying a spatio-temporal analysis method to high-resolution visual event-related potentials (ERPs) and investigated how spatio-temporal activation patterns differ for FS and CS tasks. Within the first 450 msec after stimulus onset, scalp potential distributions (ERP maps) revealed 7 different electric field configurations for each search task. Configuration changes occurred simultaneously in the two tasks, suggesting that contributing processes were not significantly delayed in one task compared to the other. Despite this high spatial and temporal correlation, two ERP maps (120-190 and 250-300 msec) differed between the FS and CS. Lateralized distributions were observed only in the ERP map at 250-300 msec for the FS. This distribution corresponds to that previously described as the N2pc component (a negativity in the time range of the N2 complex over posterior electrodes of the hemisphere contralateral to the target hemifield), which has been associated with the focusing of attention onto potential target items in the search display. Thus, our results indicate that the cortical networks involved in feature and conjunction searching partially differ as early as 120 msec after stimulus onset and that the differences between the networks employed during the early stages of FS and CS are not necessarily caused by spatial attention shifts.

Vital Statistics of Iowa, 2001

This publication is an historical recording of the most requested statistics on vital events and is a source of information that can be used in further analysis.

Pooling of dentin microtensile bond strength data improves clinical correlation.

Purpose: To evaluate whether the correlation between in vitro bond strength data and estimated clinical retention rates of cervical restorations after two years depends on pooled data obtained from multicenter studies or single-test data. Materials and Methods: Pooled mean data for six dentin adhesive systems (Adper Prompt L-Pop, Clearfil SE, OptiBond FL, Prime & Bond NT, Single Bond, and Scotchbond Multipurpose) and four laboratory methods (macroshear, microshear, macrotensile and microtensile bond strength test) (Scherrer et al, 2010) were correlated to estimated pooled two-year retention rates of Class V restorations using the same adhesive systems. For bond strength data from a single test institute, the literature search in SCOPUS revealed one study that tested all six adhesive systems (microtensile) and two that tested five of the six systems (microtensile, macroshear). The correlation was determined with a database designed to perform a meta-analysis on the clinical performance of cervical restorations (Heintze et al, 2010). The clinical data were pooled and adjusted in a linear mixed model, taking the study effect, dentin preparation, type of isolation and bevelling of enamel into account. A regression analysis was carried out to evaluate the correlation between clinical and laboratory findings. Results: The results of the regression analysis for the pooled data revealed that only the macrotensile (adjusted R2 = 0.86) and microtensile tests (adjusted R2 = 0.64), but not the shear and the microshear tests, correlated well with the clinical findings. As regards the data from a single-test institute, the correlation was not statistically significant. Conclusion: Macrotensile and microtensile bond strength tests showed an adequate correlation with the retention rate of cervical restorations after two years. Bond strength tests should be carried out by different operators and/or research institutes to determine the reliability and technique sensitivity of the material under investigation.

Photosensitizing effects of m-tetrahydroxyphenylchlorin on human tumor xenografts: correlation with sensitizer uptake, tumor doubling time and tumor histology.

The photodynamic effects of m-tetrahydroxyphenylchlorin (mTHPC) were assessed on human malignant mesothelioma, squamous cell carcinoma and adenocarcinoma xenografts grown in nude mice and were correlated with mTHPC uptake, histology and doubling time of the tumors. Non-thermal laser light was delivered to the tumor as surface radiation 4 days after intraperitoneal administration of 0.1 and 0.3 mg mTHPC/kg body weight, respectively. The extent of tumor necrosis was measured by histomorphometry. The mTHPC concentration in non-irradiated tumors was assessed by high-performance liquid chromatography (HPLC). The tumors were graded according to their doubling time and their vascular architecture as assessed by histology. The 0.1 mg/kg dose of mTHPC resulted in an equal uptake for all 3 tumor types but revealed a larger extent of photosensitized necrosis for adenocarcinoma, which displayed a delicate tumor stroma with numerous small capillary vessels, than for mesothelioma and squamous cell carcinoma, which were both poor in stroma and vessels. The 0.3 mg/kg dose of mTHPC resulted in a 2-fold higher tumor uptake for all 3 tumor types and in a larger extent of necrosis for mesothelioma and squamous cell carcinoma, but not for adenocarcinoma xenografts, compared with the lower drug dose. Our results demonstrate that different tumor xenografts respond differently to mTHPC-PDT for a given drug-light condition. In this setting, the photosensitizing effect was more closely related to the vascular architecture of the tumors than to the sensitizer uptake and doubling time of the different tumors

Correlation between vasoconstrictor roles and mRNA expression of alpha1-adrenoceptor subtypes in blood vessels of genetically engineered mice.

We examined the contribution of each alpha(1)-adrenoceptor (AR) subtype in noradrenaline (NAd)-evoked contraction in the thoracic aortas and mesenteric arteries of mice. Compared with the concentration-response curves (CRCs) for NAd in the thoracic aortas of wild-type (WT) mice, the CRCs of mutant mice showed a significantly lower sensitivity. The pD(2) value in rank order is as follows: WT mice (8.21) > alpha(1B)-adrenoceptor knockout (alpha(1B)-KO) (7.77) > alpha(1D)-AR knockout (alpha(1D)-KO) (6.44) > alpha(1B)- and alpha(1D)-AR double knockout (alpha(1BD)-KO) (5.15). In the mesenteric artery, CRCs for NAd did not differ significantly between either WT (6.52) and alpha(1B)-KO mice (7.12) or alpha(1D)-KO (6.19) and alpha(1BD)-KO (6.29) mice. However, the CRC maximum responses to NAd in alpha(1D)- and alpha(1BD)-KO mice were significantly lower than those in WT and alpha(1B)-KO mice. Except in the thoracic aortas of alpha(1BD)-KO mice, the competitive antagonist prazosin inhibited the contraction response to NAd with high affinity. However, prazosin produced shallow Schild slopes in the vessels of mice lacking the alpha(1D)-AR gene. In the thoracic aorta, pA(2) values in WT mice for KMD-3213 and BMY7378 were 8.25 and 8.46, respectively, and in alpha(1B)-KO mice they were 8.49 and 9.13, respectively. In the mesenteric artery, pA(2) values in WT mice for KMD-3213 and BMY7378 were 8.34 and 7.47, respectively, and in alpha(1B)-KO mice they were 8.11 and 7.82, respectively. These pharmacological findings were in fairly good agreement with findings from comparison of CRCs, with the exception of the mesenteric arteries of WT and alpha(1B)-KO mice, which showed low affinities to BMY7378. We performed a quantitative analysis of the mRNA expression of each alpha(1)-AR subtype in these vessels in order to examine the correlation between mRNA expression level and the predominance of each alpha(1)-AR subtype in mediating vascular contraction. The rank order of each alpha(1)-AR subtype in terms of its vasoconstrictor role was in fairly good agreement with the level of expression of mRNA of each subtype, that is, alpha(1D)-AR > alpha(1B)-AR > alpha(1A)-AR in the thoracic aorta and alpha(1D)-AR > alpha(1A)-AR > alpha(1B)-AR in the mesenteric artery. No dramatic compensatory change of alpha(1)-AR subtype in mutant mice was observed in pharmacological or quantitative mRNA expression analysis.

Use of new biochemical plasmatic markers, plasma free and total metanephrines, for the diagnosis and follow-up of neuroblastoma in children with clinical correlation

Background: Neuroblastoma is a paediatrictumour derived from the neural crest. Biochemical diagnosis and follow up rely on quantitation of urinary catecholamines (dopamine and noradrenaline) and their metabolites vanillylmandelic acid (VMA) and homovanillic acid (HVA) (gold-standard). When combined, these analyses have a sensitivity of 95%. However, they are clearly limited by inaccuracy of urine collection in young children and normalisation of catecholamine concentrations by creatininuria. Recent development in biochemical diagnosis of pheochromocytoma, another neural crest tumour found in adults, shows that plasmatic measurement of methoxylated catecholamines called metanephrines are more sensitive and specific than other biomarkers. Moreover, a study to determine the reference intervals for metanephrines in a pediatric population has recently been completed. The aim of this work is to describe the role of metanephrines monitoring in the follow up of neuroblastoma. Method: This retrospective study included patients with neuroblastoma in whom the following parameters were determined: plasma free and total metanephrines, plasma catecholamines, 24h urinary catecholamines and metanephrines in absolute value and corrected by creatinine, VMA and HVA at the diagnosis and during treatment at the University Hospital of Lausanne (Switzerland). Eleven patients aged between the first day of life and 7 years old were followed between 2005 and 2012. Clinical outcome and biochemical concentrations of the analytes were correlated. Results: At diagnosis, plasma free and total normetanephrines and methoxytyramine have a sensitivity of 100% compared to 85% for the actual gold standard. Metanephrine remain below the upper reference limit as expected since these tumours do not produce adrenaline. The relationship between biochemical markers and clinical outcome is illustrated graphically. Plasma or urinary normetanephrine and methoxytyramine correlate better with the history of the patient than VMA and HVA, as evaluated by ordinal logistic regression. Concentrations of analytes in urine show a better correlation with clinical events when the results are corrected by creatininuria. Conclusion: Normetanephrine and methoxytyramine reflect disease history in neuroblastoma patients and could play a significant role in the follow up of this type of tumour. Formal studies in a sufficient number of patients are needed to confirm this preliminary observation.