945 resultados para Continuous-time Markov Chain


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The authors extend their earlier work on the stability of a reacting binary polymer blend with respect to demixing [D. J. Read, Macromolecules 31, 899 (1998); P. I. C. Teixeira , Macromolecules 33, 387 (2000)] to the case where one of the polymers is rod-like and may order nematically. As before, the authors combine the random phase approximation for the free energy with a Markov chain model for the chemistry to obtain the spinodal as a function of the relevant degrees of reaction. These are then calculated by assuming a simple second-order chemical kinetics. Results are presented, for linear systems, which illustrate the effects of varying the proportion of coils and rods, their relative sizes, and the strength of the nematic interaction between the rods. (c) 2007 American Institute of Physics.

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Filamentous fungi from genus Aspergillus were previously detected in wastewater treatment plants (WWTP) as being Aspergillus flavus (A. flavus), an important toxigenic fungus producing aflatoxins. This study aimed to determine occupational exposure adverse effects due to fungal contamination produced by A. flavus complex in two Portuguese WWTP using conventional and molecular methodologies. Air samples from two WWTP were collected at 1 m height through impaction method. Surface samples were collected by swabbing surfaces of the same indoor sites. After counting A. flavus and identification, detection of aflatoxin production was ensured through inoculation of seven inoculates in coconut-milk agar. Plates were examined under long-wave ultraviolet (UV; 365 nm) illumination to search for the presence of fluorescence in the growing colonies. To apply molecular methods, air samples were also collected using the impinger method. Samples were collected and collection liquid was subsequently used for DNA extraction. Molecular identification of A. flavus was achieved by real-time polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) using the Rotor-Gene 6000 qPCR detection system (Corbett). Among the Aspergillus genus, the species that were more abundant in air samples from both WWTP were Aspergillus versicolor (38%), Aspergillus candidus (29.1%), and Aspergillus sydowii (12.7%). However, the most commonly species found on surfaces were A. flavus (47.3%), Aspergillus fumigatus (34.4%), and Aspergillus sydowii (10.8%). Aspergillus flavus isolates that were inoculated in coconut agar medium were not identified as toxigenic strains and were not detected by RT-PCR in any of the analyzed samples from both plants. Data in this study indicate the need for monitoring fungal contamination in this setting. Although toxigenic strains were not detected from A. flavus complex, one cannot disregard the eventual presence and potential toxicity of aflatoxins.

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In this thesis we implement estimating procedures in order to estimate threshold parameters for the continuous time threshold models driven by stochastic di®erential equations. The ¯rst procedure is based on the EM (expectation-maximization) algorithm applied to the threshold model built from the Brownian motion with drift process. The second procedure mimics one of the fundamental ideas in the estimation of the thresholds in time series context, that is, conditional least squares estimation. We implement this procedure not only for the threshold model built from the Brownian motion with drift process but also for more generic models as the ones built from the geometric Brownian motion or the Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process. Both procedures are implemented for simu- lated data and the least squares estimation procedure is also implemented for real data of daily prices from a set of international funds. The ¯rst fund is the PF-European Sus- tainable Equities-R fund from the Pictet Funds company and the second is the Parvest Europe Dynamic Growth fund from the BNP Paribas company. The data for both funds are daily prices from the year 2004. The last fund to be considered is the Converging Europe Bond fund from the Schroder company and the data are daily prices from the year 2005.

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Dissertation submitted in partial fulfilment of the requirements for the Degree of Master of Science in Geospatial Technologies

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Thesis submitted to the Instituto Superior de Estatística e Gestão de Informação da Universidade Nova de Lisboa in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the Degree of Doctor of Philosophy in Information Management – Geographic Information Systems

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Dissertation submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the Degree of Master of Science in Geospatial Technologies.

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Dissertation submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the Degree of Master of Science in Geospatial Technologies.

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Introduction: Cart horses are a re-emerging population employed to carry recyclable material in cities. Methods: Sixty-two horses were sampled in an endemic area of human leptospirosis. The microscopic agglutination test (MAT) and real-time polymerase chain reaction (qPCR) were performed. Results: A seropositivity of 75.8% with serovar Icterohaemorrhagiae in 80.8% of the horses was observed. Blood and urine were qPCR negative. MAT showed positive correlations with rainfall (p = 0.02) and flooding (p = 0.03). Conclusions: Although horses may be constantly exposed to Leptospira spp. in the environment mostly because of rainfall and flooding, no leptospiremia or leptospiruria were observed in this study.

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Helicobacter pylori (H. pylori) infection triggers a sequence of gastric alterations starting with an inflammation of the gastric mucosa that, in some cases, evolves to gastric cancer. Efficient vaccination has not been achieved, thus it is essential to find alternative therapies, particularly in the nutritional field. The current study evaluated whether curcumin could attenuate inflammation of the gastric mucosa due to H. pylori infection. Twenty-eight C57BL/6 mice, were inoculated with the H. pylori SS1 strain; ten non-infected mice were used as controls. H. pylori infection in live mice was followed-up using a modified 13C-Urea Breath Test (13C-UBT) and quantitative real-time polymerase chain reaction (PCR). Histologically confirmed, gastritis was observed in 42% of infected non-treated mice at both 6 and 18 weeks post-infection. These mice showed an up-regulation of the expression of inflammatory cytokines and chemokines, as well as of toll-like receptors (TLRs) and MyD88, at both time points. Treatment with curcumin decreased the expression of all these mediators. No inflammation was observed by histology in this group. Curcumin treatment exerted a significant anti-inflammatory effect in H. pylori-infected mucosa, pointing to the promising role of a nutritional approach in the prevention of H. pylori induced deleterious inflammation while the eradication or prevention of colonization by effective vaccine is not available.

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Influenza surveillance is usually based on nationally organized sentinel networks of physicians and on hospital reports. This study aimed to test a different report system, based on parents' phone contact to the research team and in home collection of samples by a dedicated team. The identification of influenza and other respiratory viruses in children who attended a Hospital Emergency Department was also recorded. Real-time PCR and reverse transcription PCR were performed for influenza A and B, parainfluenza 1-4, adenovirus, human metapneumovirus, respiratory syncytial virus A and B, rhinovirus, enterovirus, group 1 coronaviruses, group 2 coronaviruses, and human bocavirus. One hundred children were included, 64 from the day care centers and 36 from the Hospital. Overall, 79 samples were positive for at least one respiratory virus. Influenza A (H3) was the virus most frequently detected: 25 cases, 20 of these in children under 5 years of age (ten from day care centers and ten who went to the hospital) which was higher than those reported by the National Influenza Surveillance Programme for this age. CONCLUSION: The results obtained in this study suggest that a surveillance system based on parents' reports could complement the implanted system of the National Influenza Surveillance Programme.

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Dissertação para obtenção do Grau de Mestre em Engenharia Electrotécnica e de Computadores

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Dissertação apresentada para obtenção do Grau de Mestre em Engenharia Electrotécnica e de Computadores, pela Universidade Nova de Lisboa, Faculdade de Ciências e Tecnologia

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Dissertation submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the Degree of Master of Science in Geospatial Technologies

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INTRODUCTION: Malaria is a serious problem in the Brazilian Amazon region, and the detection of possible risk factors could be of great interest for public health authorities. The objective of this article was to investigate the association between environmental variables and the yearly registers of malaria in the Amazon region using Bayesian spatiotemporal methods. METHODS: We used Poisson spatiotemporal regression models to analyze the Brazilian Amazon forest malaria count for the period from 1999 to 2008. In this study, we included some covariates that could be important in the yearly prediction of malaria, such as deforestation rate. We obtained the inferences using a Bayesian approach and Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods to simulate samples for the joint posterior distribution of interest. The discrimination of different models was also discussed. RESULTS: The model proposed here suggests that deforestation rate, the number of inhabitants per km², and the human development index (HDI) are important in the prediction of malaria cases. CONCLUSIONS: It is possible to conclude that human development, population growth, deforestation, and their associated ecological alterations are conducive to increasing malaria risk. We conclude that the use of Poisson regression models that capture the spatial and temporal effects under the Bayesian paradigm is a good strategy for modeling malaria counts.

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This work models the competitive behaviour of individuals who maximize their own utility managing their network of connections with other individuals. Utility is taken as a synonym of reputation in this model. Each agent has to decide between two variables: the quality of connections and the number of connections. Hence, the reputation of an individual is a function of the number and the quality of connections within the network. On the other hand, individuals incur in a cost when they improve their network of contacts. The initial value of the quality and number of connections of each individual is distributed according to an initial (given) distribution. The competition occurs over continuous time and among a continuum of agents. A mean field game approach is adopted to solve the model, leading to an optimal trajectory for the number and quality of connections for each individual.