OPTIMIZATION AND CONTROL OF A CONTINUOUS POLYMERIZATION REACTOR

This work studies the optimization and control of a styrene polymerization reactor. The proposed strategy deals with the case where, because of market conditions and equipment deterioration, the optimal operating point of the continuous reactor is modified significantly along the operation time and the control system has to search for this optimum point, besides keeping the reactor system stable at any possible point. The approach considered here consists of three layers: the Real Time Optimization (RTO), the Model Predictive Control (MPC) and a Target Calculation (TC) that coordinates the communication between the two other layers and guarantees the stability of the whole structure. The proposed algorithm is simulated with the phenomenological model of a styrene polymerization reactor, which has been widely used as a benchmark for process control. The complete optimization structure for the styrene process including disturbances rejection is developed. The simulation results show the robustness of the proposed strategy and the capability to deal with disturbances while the economic objective is optimized.

Optimization and control of a continuous polymerization reactor

This work studies the optimization and control of a styrene polymerization reactor. The proposed strategy deals with the case where, because of market conditions and equipment deterioration, the optimal operating point of the continuous reactor is modified significantly along the operation time and the control system has to search for this optimum point, besides keeping the reactor system stable at any possible point. The approach considered here consists of three layers: the Real Time Optimization (RTO), the Model Predictive Control (MPC) and a Target Calculation (TC) that coordinates the communication between the two other layers and guarantees the stability of the whole structure. The proposed algorithm is simulated with the phenomenological model of a styrene polymerization reactor, which has been widely used as a benchmark for process control. The complete optimization structure for the styrene process including disturbances rejection is developed. The simulation results show the robustness of the proposed strategy and the capability to deal with disturbances while the economic objective is optimized.

Continuous geochemical monitoring by mass-spectometer in the Campi Flegrei geothermal area. An application at Pisciarelli-Solfatara (diffuse and fumarolic gases) and at the mud gases during drilling of the CFDDP pilot hole

During this work has been developed an innovative methodology for continuous and in situ gas monitoring (24/24 h) of fumarolic and soil diffusive emissions applied to the geothermal and volcanic area of Pisciarelli near Agnano inside the Campi Flegrei caldera (CFc). In literature there are only scattered and in discrete data of the geochemical gas composition of fumarole at Campi Flegrei; it is only since the early ’80 that exist a systematic record of fumaroles with discrete sampling at Solfatara (Bocca Grande and Bocca Nuova fumaroles) and since 1999, even at the degassing areas of Pisciarelli. This type of sampling has resulted in a time series of geochemical analysis with discontinuous periods of time set (in average 2-3 measurements per month) completely inadequate for the purposes of Civil Defence in such high volcanic risk and densely populated areas. For this purpose, and to remedy this lack of data, during this study was introduced a new methodology of continuous and in situ sampling able to continuously detect data related and from its soil diffusive degassing. Due to its high sampling density (about one measurement per minute therefore producing 1440 data daily) and numerous species detected (CO2, Ar, 36Ar, CH4, He, H2S, N2, O2) allowing a good statistic record and the reconstruction of the gas composition evolution of the investigated area. This methodology is based on continuous sampling of fumaroles gases and soil degassing using an extraction line, which after undergoing a series of condensation processes of the water vapour content - better described hereinafter - is analyzed through using a quadrupole mass spectrometer

Early Warning For Large Earthquakes: Observations, Models and Real-Time Data Analysis

This thesis is a collection of works focused on the topic of Earthquake Early Warning, with a special attention to large magnitude events. The topic is addressed from different points of view and the structure of the thesis reflects the variety of the aspects which have been analyzed. The first part is dedicated to the giant, 2011 Tohoku-Oki earthquake. The main features of the rupture process are first discussed. The earthquake is then used as a case study to test the feasibility Early Warning methodologies for very large events. Limitations of the standard approaches for large events arise in this chapter. The difficulties are related to the real-time magnitude estimate from the first few seconds of recorded signal. An evolutionary strategy for the real-time magnitude estimate is proposed and applied to the single Tohoku-Oki earthquake. In the second part of the thesis a larger number of earthquakes is analyzed, including small, moderate and large events. Starting from the measurement of two Early Warning parameters, the behavior of small and large earthquakes in the initial portion of recorded signals is investigated. The aim is to understand whether small and large earthquakes can be distinguished from the initial stage of their rupture process. A physical model and a plausible interpretation to justify the observations are proposed. The third part of the thesis is focused on practical, real-time approaches for the rapid identification of the potentially damaged zone during a seismic event. Two different approaches for the rapid prediction of the damage area are proposed and tested. The first one is a threshold-based method which uses traditional seismic data. Then an innovative approach using continuous, GPS data is explored. Both strategies improve the prediction of large scale effects of strong earthquakes.

Proposal of a Continuous Read-out Implementation in the ALICE-TOF detector

The main purpose of ultrarelativistic heavy-ion collisions is the investigation of the QGP. The ALICE experiment situated at the CERN has been specifically designed to study heavy-ion collisions for centre-of-mass energies up to 5.5 per nucleon pair. Extended particle identification capability is one of the main characteristics of the ALICE experiment. In the intermediate momentum region (up to 2.5 GeV/c for pi/K and 4 GeV/c for K/p), charged particles are identified in the ALICE experiment by the Time of Flight (TOF) detector. The ALICE-TOF system is a large-area detector based on the use of Multi-gap Resistive Plate Chamber (MRPC) built with high efficiency, fast response and intrinsic time resolution better than 40 ps. This thesis work, developed with the ALICE-TOF Bologna group, is part of the efforts carried out to adapt the read-out of the detector to the new requirements after the LHC Long Shutdown 2. Tests on the feasibility of a new read-out scheme for the TOF detector have been performed. In fact, the achievement of a continuous read-out also for the TOF detector would not be affordable if one considers the replacement of the TRM cards both for hardware and budget reasons. Actually, the read-out of the TOF is limited at 250 kHz i.e. it would be able to collect up to just a fourth of the maximum collision rate potentially achievable for pp interactions. In this Master’s degree thesis work, I discuss a different read-out system for the ALICE-TOF detector that allows to register all the hits at the interaction rate of 1 MHz foreseen for pp interactions after the 2020, by using the electronics currently available. Such solution would allow the ALICE-TOF detector to collect all the hits generated by pp collisions at 1 MHz interaction rate, which corresponds to an amount four times larger than that initially expected at such frequencies with the triggered read-out system operated at 250 kHz for LHC Run 3. The obtained results confirm that the proposed read-out scheme is a viable option for the ALICE TOF detector. The results also highlighted that it will be advantageous if the ALICE-TOF group also implement an online monitoring system of noisy channels to allow their deactivation in real time.

CD4-guided scheduled treatment interruptions compared with continuous therapy for patients infected with HIV-1: results of the Staccato randomised trial

BACKGROUND: Stopping antiretroviral therapy in patients with HIV-1 infection can reduce costs and side-effects, but carries the risk of increased immune suppression and emergence of resistance. METHODS: 430 patients with CD4-positive T-lymphocyte (CD4) counts greater than 350 cells per muL, and viral load less than 50 copies per mL were randomised to continued therapy (n=146) or scheduled treatment interruptions (n=284). Median time on randomised treatment was 21.9 months (range 16.4-25.3). Primary endpoints were proportion of patients with viral load less than 50 copies per mL at the end of the trial, and amount of drugs used. Analysis was intention-to-treat. This study is registered at ClinicalTrials.gov with the identifier NCT00113126. FINDINGS: Drug savings in the scheduled treatment interruption group, compared with continuous treatment, amounted to 61.5%. 257 of 284 (90.5%) patients in the scheduled treatment interruption group reached a viral load less than 50 copies per mL, compared with 134 of 146 (91.8%) in the continued treatment group (difference 1.3%, 95% CI-4.3 to 6.9, p=0.90). No AIDS-defining events occurred. Diarrhoea and neuropathy were more frequent with continuous treatment; candidiasis was more frequent with scheduled treatment interruption. Ten patients (2.3%) had resistance mutations, with no significant differences between groups. INTERPRETATION: Drug savings with scheduled treatment interruption were substantial, and no evidence of increased treatment resistance emerged. Treatment-related adverse events were more frequent with continuous treatment, but low CD4 counts and minor manifestations of HIV infection were more frequent with scheduled treatment interruption.

Association between sleep apnea severity and blood coagulability: Treatment effects of nasal continuous positive airway pressure

A prothrombotic state may contribute to the elevated cardiovascular risk in patients with obstructive sleep apnea (OSA). We investigated the relationship between apnea severity and hemostasis factors and effect of continuous positive airway pressure (CPAP) treatment on hemostatic activity. We performed full overnight polysomnography in 44 OSA patients (mean age 47+/-10 years), yielding apnea-hypopnea index (AHI) and mean nighttime oxyhemoglobin saturation (SpO2) as indices of apnea severity. For treatment, subjects were double-blind randomized to 2 weeks of either therapeutic CPAP (n = 18), 3 l/min supplemental nocturnal oxygen (n = 16) or placebo-CPAP (<1 cm H2O) (n = 10). Levels of von Willebrand factor antigen (VWF:Ag), soluble tissue factor (sTF), D-dimer, and plasminogen activator inhibitor (PAI)-1 antigen were measured in plasma pre- and posttreatment. Before treatment, PAI-1 was significantly correlated with AHI (r = 0.47, p = 0.001) and mean nighttime SpO2 (r = -0.32, p = 0.035), but these OSA measures were not significantly related with VWF:Ag, sTF, and D-dimer. AHI was a significant predictor of PAI-1 (R2 = 0.219, standardized beta = 0.47, p = 0.001), independent of mean nighttime SpO2, body mass index (BMI), and age. A weak time-by-treatment interaction for PAI-1 was observed (p = 0.041), even after adjusting for age, BMI, pre-treatment AHI, and mean SpO2 (p = 0.046). Post hoc analyses suggested that only CPAP treatment was associated with a decrease in PAI-1 (p = 0.039); there were no changes in VWF:Ag, sTF, and D-dimer associated with treatment with placebo-CPAP or with nocturnal oxygen. Apnea severity may be associated with impairment in the fibrinolytic capacity. To the extent that our sample size was limited, the observation that CPAP treatment led to a decrease in PAI-1 in OSA must be regarded as tentative.

DECOMPOSITION OF REGRESSION ESTIMATORS TO EXPLORE THE INFLUENCE OF "UNMEASURED" TIME-VARYING CONFOUNDERS

In environmental epidemiology, exposure X and health outcome Y vary in space and time. We present a method to diagnose the possible influence of unmeasured confounders U on the estimated effect of X on Y and to propose several approaches to robust estimation. The idea is to use space and time as proxy measures for the unmeasured factors U. We start with the time series case where X and Y are continuous variables at equally-spaced times and assume a linear model. We define matching estimator b(u)s that correspond to pairs of observations with specific lag u. Controlling for a smooth function of time, St, using a kernel estimator is roughly equivalent to estimating the association with a linear combination of the b(u)s with weights that involve two components: the assumptions about the smoothness of St and the normalized variogram of the X process. When an unmeasured confounder U exists, but the model otherwise correctly controls for measured confounders, the excess variation in b(u)s is evidence of confounding by U. We use the plot of b(u)s versus lag u, lagged-estimator-plot (LEP), to diagnose the influence of U on the effect of X on Y. We use appropriate linear combination of b(u)s or extrapolate to b(0) to obtain novel estimators that are more robust to the influence of smooth U. The methods are extended to time series log-linear models and to spatial analyses. The LEP plot gives us a direct view of the magnitude of the estimators for each lag u and provides evidence when models did not adequately describe the data.

Increased NoGo-anteriorisation in first-episode schizophrenia patients during Continuous Performance Test

OBJECTIVE: NoGo-stimuli during a Continuous Performance Test (CPT) activate prefrontal brain structures such as the anterior cingulate gyrus and lead to an anteriorisation of the positive electrical field of the NoGo-P300 relative to the Go-P300, so-called NoGo-anteriorisation (NGA). NGA during CPT is regarded as a neurophysiological standard index for cognitive response control. While it is known that patients with chronic schizophrenia exhibit a significant reduction in NGA, it is unclear whether this also occurs in patients undergoing their first-episode. Thus, the aim of the present study was to determine NGA in a group of patients with first-episode schizophrenia by utilizing a CPT paradigm. METHODS: Eighteen patients with first-episode schizophrenia and 18 matched healthy subjects were investigated electrophysiologically during a cued CPT, and the parameters of the Go- and NoGo-P300 were determined using microstate analysis. Low resolution tomography analysis (LORETA) was used for source determination. RESULTS: Due to a more posterior Go- and a more anterior NoGo-centroid, NGA was greater in patients than in healthy controls. LORETA indicated the same sources for both groups after Go-stimuli, but a more anterior source in patients after NoGo-stimuli. In patients P300-amplitude responses to both Go- and NoGo-stimuli were decreased, and P300-latency to NoGo-stimuli was increased. After the Go-stimuli false reactions and reaction times were increased in patients. CONCLUSIONS: Attention was reduced in patients with first-episode schizophrenia, as indicated by more false reactions, prolongation of reaction time, P300-latencies and by a decrease in P300-amplitude. Significantly however, the NGA and prefrontal LORETA-sources indicate intact prefrontal brain structures in first-episode schizophrenia patients. Previously described changes in this indicator of prefrontal function may be related to a progressive decay in chronic schizophrenia. SIGNIFICANCE: The results support the idea of a possible new biological marker of first episode psychosis, which may be a useful parameter for the longitudinal measurement of changing prefrontal brain function in a single schizophrenia patient.

Effects of forest management and time on herbaceous species dynamics in the western Upper Peninsula of Michigan

The herbaceous layer is a dynamic layer in a forest ecosystem which often contains the highest species richness in northern temperate forests. Few long-term studies exist in northern hardwood forests with consistent management practices to observe herbaceous species dynamics. The Ford Forest (Michigan Technological University) reached its 50th year of management during the winter of 2008-2009. Herbaceous species were sampled during the summers pre- and post-harvest. Distinct herbaceous communities developed in the 13-cm diameter-limit treatment and the uncut control. After the harvest, the diameter-limit treatments had herbaceous communities more similar to the 13-cm diameter-limit treatment than the uncut control; the herbaceous layer contained more exotic and early successional species. Fifty years of continuous management changed the herbaceous community especially in the diameter-limit treatments. Sites used in the development of habitat classification systems based on the presence and absence of certain herbaceous species can also be used to monitor vegetation change over time. The Guide to Forest Communities and Habitat Types of Michigan was developed to aid forest managers in understanding the potential productivity of a stand, and often aid in the development of ecologically-based forest management practices. Subsets of plots used to create the Western Upper Peninsula Guide were resampled after 10 years. During the resampling, both spring and summer vegetation were sampled and earthworm populations were estimated through liquid extraction. Spring sampling observed important spring ephemerals missed during summer sampling. More exotic species were present during the summer 2010 sampling than the summer 2000 sampling. Invasive European earthworms were also observed at all sample locations in all habitat types; earthworm densities increased with increasing habitat richness. To ensure the accuracy of the guide book, plots should be monitored to see how herbaceous communities are changing. These plots also offer unique opportunities to monitor for invasive species and the effects of a changing climate.

Disagreements in meta-analyses using outcomes measured on continuous or rating scales: observer agreement study

OBJECTIVE: To study the inter-observer variation related to extraction of continuous and numerical rating scale data from trial reports for use in meta-analyses. DESIGN: Observer agreement study. DATA SOURCES: A random sample of 10 Cochrane reviews that presented a result as a standardised mean difference (SMD), the protocols for the reviews and the trial reports (n=45) were retrieved. DATA EXTRACTION: Five experienced methodologists and five PhD students independently extracted data from the trial reports for calculation of the first SMD result in each review. The observers did not have access to the reviews but to the protocols, where the relevant outcome was highlighted. The agreement was analysed at both trial and meta-analysis level, pairing the observers in all possible ways (45 pairs, yielding 2025 pairs of trials and 450 pairs of meta-analyses). Agreement was defined as SMDs that differed less than 0.1 in their point estimates or confidence intervals. RESULTS: The agreement was 53% at trial level and 31% at meta-analysis level. Including all pairs, the median disagreement was SMD=0.22 (interquartile range 0.07-0.61). The experts agreed somewhat more than the PhD students at trial level (61% v 46%), but not at meta-analysis level. Important reasons for disagreement were differences in selection of time points, scales, control groups, and type of calculations; whether to include a trial in the meta-analysis; and data extraction errors made by the observers. In 14 out of the 100 SMDs calculated at the meta-analysis level, individual observers reached different conclusions than the originally published review. CONCLUSIONS: Disagreements were common and often larger than the effect of commonly used treatments. Meta-analyses using SMDs are prone to observer variation and should be interpreted with caution. The reliability of meta-analyses might be improved by having more detailed review protocols, more than one observer, and statistical expertise.

Neer Award 2007: Reversion of structural muscle changes caused by chronic rotator cuff tears using continuous musculotendinous traction. An experimental study in sheep

HYPOTHESIS: Chronic rotator cuff tears are associated with irreversible architectural muscle changes and a high rate of repair failure. The changes observed in man and their irreversibility with a single stage repair can be reproduced in sheep. It was the purpose of this experiment to test the hypothesis that slow, continuous elongation of a retracted musculotendinous unit allows reversal of the currently irreversible structural muscle changes. MATERIALS AND METHODS: The infraspinatus tendon of 12 sheep was released using a greater tuberosity osteotomy and allowed to retract for 4 months. Then, a new device was mounted on the scapular spine and used to extend the infraspinatus muscuculotendinous unit transcutaneously by 1 mm per day. Thereafter, the tendon was repaired back to the greater tuberosity. We assessed the muscular architecture using magnetic resonance imaging, macroscopic dissection, histology, and electron microscopy. Fatty infiltration (in Hounsfield units 1/4 HU) and muscular cross-sectional area (in % of the control side) were monitored with computed tomography at tendon release, initiation of elongation, repair, and at sacrifice. RESULTS: Sixteen weeks after tendon release, the mean tendon retraction was 29 +/- 6 mm (14% of original length, P = .008). In 8 sheep, elongation was achieved as planned (group I), but in 4, the elongation failed technically (group II). The mean traction time was 24 +/- 6 days with a mean traction distance of 19 +/- 4 mm. At sacrifice, the mean pennation angle in the infraspinatus of group I was not different from the control side (29.8 degrees +/-7.5 degrees vs. 30 degrees +/-6 degrees , P = .575). In group II, the pennation angle had increased from 30 degrees +/-6 degrees to 55 degrees +/-14 degrees (P = .035). There was no fatty infiltration at the time of tendon release. After retraction, there was a significant increase in fatty infiltration of the infraspinatus muscle and a decrease of its cross-sectional area to 57% of the contralateral side (P = .0001). During traction, the degree of fatty infiltration remained unchanged (36 HU to 38 HU, P = .381), and atrophy improved to a muscle square area of 78% of the contralateral side (P = .0001) in group I. In group II, an increase of fatty infiltration was measured from 36 HU to 28 HU; however, this increase was not significant (P = .144). Atrophy did not change in group II (57-55%, P = .946). At sacrifice, the remaining muscle mass was 64% in group I and 46% in group II (P = .019). DISCUSSION: Our preliminary results document, that continuous elongation of a retracted, fatty infiltrated and atrophied musculotendinous unit is technically feasible. CONCLUSION: In the sheep, continuous elongation can lead to restoration of normal muscle architecture, to partial reversal of muscle atrophy, and to arrest of the progression of fatty infiltration. LEVEL OF EVIDENCE: Basic science level 2; Prospective comparative therapeutic study.

Treatment of acute renal failure in the intensive care unit: lower costs by intermittent dialysis than continuous venovenous hemodiafiltration

Intermittent and continuous renal replacement therapies (RRTs) are available for the treatment of acute renal failure (ARF) in the intensive care unit (ICU). Although at present there are no adequately powered survival studies, available data suggest that both methods are equal with respect to patient outcome. Therefore, cost comparison between techniques is important for selecting the modality. Expenditures were prospectively assessed as a secondary end point during a controlled, randomized trial comparing intermittent hemodialysis (IHD) with continuous venovenous hemodiafiltration (CVVHDF). The outcome of the primary end points of this trial, that is, ICU and in-hospital mortality, has been previously published. One hundred twenty-five patients from a Swiss university hospital ICU were randomized either to CVVHDF or IHD. Out of these, 42 (CVVHDF) and 34 (IHD) were available for cost analysis. Patients' characteristics, delivered dialysis dose, duration of stay in the ICU or hospital, mortality rates, and recovery of renal function were not different between the two groups. Detailed 24-h time and material consumption protocols were available for 369 (CVVHDF) and 195 (IHD) treatment days. The mean daily duration of CVVHDF was 19.5 +/- 3.2 h/day, resulting in total expenditures of Euro 436 +/- 21 (21% for human resources and 79% for technical devices). For IHD (mean 3.0 +/- 0.4 h/treatment), the costs were lower (Euro 268 +/- 26), with a larger proportion for human resources (45%). Nursing time spent for CVVHDF was 113 +/- 50 min, and 198 +/- 63 min per IHD treatment. Total costs for RRT in ICU patients with ARF were lower when treated with IHD than with CVVHDF, and have to be taken into account for the selection of the method of RRT in ARF on the ICU.

Triangle-programmed coulometric nanotitrations completed by continuous flow with potentiometric detection

Coulometric nanotitrations were realized in a microchannel system using a continuous-flow titration technique with a triangle current-time profile. Redox and acid-base titrations were carried out on Fe(II) and nitric acid samples, respectively, with the same nanotitrator device. A linear relation between the concentration and the coulometric current transferred to the solution was found. The advantages of this universally applicable nanotitrator are fast response, low sample volume, high sensitivity, and high reproducibility as well as the convenience of handling an automated analyzer of the flow-through type.

Continuous monitoring of bovine spongiform encephalopathy rapid test performance by weak positive tissue controls and quality control charts

Bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) rapid tests and routine BSE-testing laboratories underlie strict regulations for approval. Due to the lack of BSE-positive control samples, however, full assay validation at the level of individual test runs and continuous monitoring of test performance on-site is difficult. Most rapid tests use synthetic prion protein peptides, but it is not known to which extend they reflect the assay performance on field samples, and whether they are sufficient to indicate on-site assay quality problems. To address this question we compared the test scores of the provided kit peptide controls to those of standardized weak BSE-positive tissue samples in individual test runs as well as continuously over time by quality control charts in two widely used BSE rapid tests. Our results reveal only a weak correlation between the weak positive tissue control and the peptide control scores. We identified kit-lot related shifts in the assay performances that were not reflected by the peptide control scores. Vice versa, not all shifts indicated by the peptide control scores indeed reflected a shift in the assay performance. In conclusion these data highlight that the use of the kit peptide controls for continuous quality control purposes may result in unjustified rejection or acceptance of test runs. However, standardized weak positive tissue controls in combination with Shewhart-CUSUM control charts appear to be reliable in continuously monitoring assay performance on-site to identify undesired deviations.