Oil Market Modelling: A Comparative Analysis of Fundamental and Latent Factor Approaches

We formally compare fundamental factor and latent factor approaches to oil price modelling. Fundamental modelling has a long history in seeking to understand oil price movements, while latent factor modelling has a more recent and limited history, but has gained popularity in other financial markets. The two approaches, though competing, have not formally been compared as to effectiveness. For a range of short- medium- and long-dated WTI oil futures we test a recently proposed five-factor fundamental model and a Principal Component Analysis latent factor model. Our findings demonstrate that there is no discernible difference between the two techniques in a dynamic setting. We conclude that this infers some advantages in adopting the latent factor approach due to the difficulty in determining a well specified fundamental model.

Comparative study of the epibionts on the pelagic and mature female loggerhead turtles on the Canary and Cape Verde islands

[EN] Marine turtles commonly carry diverse forms of epizoa on their shells. The occurrence of a particular species may ultimately help to clarify certain questions about sea turtle natural life history. This paper gives a detailed and comparative list of epizoic species found on two populations of macaronesian loggerheads: pelagic and juveniles living around the Canary Islands and mature females nesting in Boavista Island, Cabo Verde. For the epizoic flora, the most important genera founded is Polysiphonia (Rhodophiceae); P. carettia for the pelagics and Polysiphonia sp. for the nesting animals.

La divination par les sorts dans le monde oriental méditerranéen du IIe au VIe siècle après J.-C. : étude comparative des sortes Homericae, sortes Astrampsychi et tables d'astragalomancie en Asie mineure

Cette thèse se propose de comparer exhaustivement trois systèmes de divination par voie de tirage au sort qui ont été contemporains dans l’antiquité tardive. À l’aide d’une analyse rigoureuse des thèmes évoqués, des stratégies rhétoriques employées, du vocabulaire présent et des probabilités d’obtention des réponses offertes, plusieurs points communs ressortent. Les énoncés positifs et négatifs se veulent, dans tous les cas, équilibrés et ils optent souvent pour des variantes temporelles afin de tempérer les prédictions. Lorsqu’ils ne s’appliquent pas à des questions spécifiques, ils misent sur l’imaginaire des consultations littéraires qui allie proverbes et éléments épiques, sans toutefois déroger des thèmes communs liés aux préoccupations quotidiennes des consultants. La rhapsodomancie s’inscrit dans cette mouvance et prouve à quel point l’épopée est une source propice à l’élaboration de systèmes oraculaires, sans jamais que le contexte narratif et littéraire des vers sélectionnés n’entre en jeu.

Faulkner revisited : narrating property, race, gender and history in William Faulkner's Go Down, Moses, Toni Morrison's Song of Solomon and Gloria Naylor's Mama Day

My thesis explores the formation of the subject in the novels of Faulkner’s Go Down, Moses, Toni Morrison’s Song of Solomon, and Gloria Naylor’s Mama Day. I attach the concept of property in terms of how male protagonists are obsessed with materialistic ownership and with the subordination of women who, as properties, consolidate their manhood. The three novelists despite their racial, gendered, and literary differences share the view that identity and truth are mere social and cultural constructs. I incorporate the work of Judith Butler and other poststructuralist figures, who see identity as a matter of performance rather than a natural entity. My thesis explores the theme of freedom, which I attached to the ways characters use their bodies either to confine or to emancipate themselves from the restricting world of race, class, and gender. The three novelists deconstruct any system of belief that promulgates the objectivity of truth in historical documents. History in the three novels, as with the protagonists, perception of identity, remains a social construct laden with distortions to serve particular political or ideological agendas. My thesis gives voice to African American female characters who are associated with love and racial and gender resistance. They become the reservoirs of the African American legacy in terms of their association with the oral and intuitionist mode of knowing, which subverts the male characters’ obsession with property and with the mainstream empiricist world. In this dissertation, I use the concept of hybridity as a literary and theoretical devise that African-American writers employ. In effect, I embark on the postcolonial studies of Henry Louise Gates, Paul Gilroy, W. E. B Du Bois, James Clifford, and Arjun Appadurai in order to reflect upon the fluidity of Morrison’s and Naylor’s works. I show how these two novelists subvert Faulkner’s essentialist perception of truth, and of racial and gendered identity. They associate the myth of the Flying African with the notion of hybridity by making their male protagonists criss-cross Northern and Southern regions. I refer to Mae Gwendolyn Henderson’s article on “Speaking in Tongues” in my analysis of how Naylor subverts the patriarchal text of both Faulkner and Morrison in embarking on a more feminine version of the flying African, which she relates to an ex-slave, Sapphira Wade, a volatile female character who resists fixed claim over her story and identity. In dealing with the concept of hybridity, I show that Naylor rewrites both authors’ South by making Willow Springs a more fluid space, an assumption that unsettles the scores of critics who associate the island with authenticity and exclusive rootedness.

Reading Pitscottie's Cronicles: a case study on the history of literacy in Scotland, 1575-1814

This thesis addresses a range of research questions regarding literacy in early modern Scotland. Using the early modern manuscripts and printed editions of Robert Lindsay of Pitscottie’s late sixteenth-century 'Cronicles of Scotland' as a case study on literacy history, this thesis poses the complementary questions of how and why early modern Scottish reading communities were encountering Pitscottie’s 'Cronicles', and how features of the material page can be interpreted as indicators of contemporary literacy practices. The answers to these questions then provide the basis for the thesis to ask broader socio-cultural and theoretical questions regarding the overall literacy environment in Scotland between 1575 and 1814, and how theorists conceptualise the history of literacy. Positioned within the theoretical groundings of historical pragmatics and ‘new philology’ – and the related approach of pragmaphilology – this thesis returns to the earlier philological practice of close textual analysis, and engages with the theoretical concept of mouvance, in order to analyse how the changing ‘form’ of Pitscottie’s 'Cronicles', as it was reproduced in manuscript and print throughout the early modern period, indicates its changing ‘function’. More specifically, it suggests that the punctuation practices and paratextual features of individual witnesses of the text function to aid the highly-nuanced reading practices and purposes of the discrete reading communities for which they were produced. This thesis includes extensive descriptive material which presents previously unrecorded data regarding twenty manuscripts and printed witnesses of Pitscottie’s 'Cronicles', contributing to a gap in Scotland’s literary/historiographical canon. It then analyses this material using a transferable methodological framework which combines the quantitative analysis of micro-data with qualitative analysis of this data within its socio-cultural context, in order to conduct diachronic comparative analysis of copy-specific information. The principal findings of this thesis suggest that Pitscottie’s 'Cronicles' were being read for a combination of devotional and didactic purposes, and that multiple reading communities, employing highly nuanced reading practices, were encountering the text near-contemporaneously. This thesis further suggests that early modern literacy practices, and the specific reading communities which employ them, should be described as existing within a spectrum of available practices (i.e. more or less oral/aural or silent, and intensive or extensive in practice) rather than as dichotomous entities. As such, this thesis argues for the rejection of evolutionary theories of the history of literacy, suggesting that rather than being described antithetically, historical reading practices and purposes must be recognised as complex, coexisting socio-cultural practices, and the multiplicity of reading communities within a single society must be acknowledged and analysed as such, as opposed to being interpreted as universal entities.

La divination par les sorts dans le monde oriental méditerranéen du IIe au VIe siècle après J.-C. : étude comparative des sortes Homericae, sortes Astrampsychi et tables d'astragalomancie en Asie mineure

Cette thèse se propose de comparer exhaustivement trois systèmes de divination par voie de tirage au sort qui ont été contemporains dans l’antiquité tardive. À l’aide d’une analyse rigoureuse des thèmes évoqués, des stratégies rhétoriques employées, du vocabulaire présent et des probabilités d’obtention des réponses offertes, plusieurs points communs ressortent. Les énoncés positifs et négatifs se veulent, dans tous les cas, équilibrés et ils optent souvent pour des variantes temporelles afin de tempérer les prédictions. Lorsqu’ils ne s’appliquent pas à des questions spécifiques, ils misent sur l’imaginaire des consultations littéraires qui allie proverbes et éléments épiques, sans toutefois déroger des thèmes communs liés aux préoccupations quotidiennes des consultants. La rhapsodomancie s’inscrit dans cette mouvance et prouve à quel point l’épopée est une source propice à l’élaboration de systèmes oraculaires, sans jamais que le contexte narratif et littéraire des vers sélectionnés n’entre en jeu.

Faulkner revisited : narrating property, race, gender and history in William Faulkner's Go Down, Moses, Toni Morrison's Song of Solomon and Gloria Naylor's Mama Day

My thesis explores the formation of the subject in the novels of Faulkner’s Go Down, Moses, Toni Morrison’s Song of Solomon, and Gloria Naylor’s Mama Day. I attach the concept of property in terms of how male protagonists are obsessed with materialistic ownership and with the subordination of women who, as properties, consolidate their manhood. The three novelists despite their racial, gendered, and literary differences share the view that identity and truth are mere social and cultural constructs. I incorporate the work of Judith Butler and other poststructuralist figures, who see identity as a matter of performance rather than a natural entity. My thesis explores the theme of freedom, which I attached to the ways characters use their bodies either to confine or to emancipate themselves from the restricting world of race, class, and gender. The three novelists deconstruct any system of belief that promulgates the objectivity of truth in historical documents. History in the three novels, as with the protagonists, perception of identity, remains a social construct laden with distortions to serve particular political or ideological agendas. My thesis gives voice to African American female characters who are associated with love and racial and gender resistance. They become the reservoirs of the African American legacy in terms of their association with the oral and intuitionist mode of knowing, which subverts the male characters’ obsession with property and with the mainstream empiricist world. In this dissertation, I use the concept of hybridity as a literary and theoretical devise that African-American writers employ. In effect, I embark on the postcolonial studies of Henry Louise Gates, Paul Gilroy, W. E. B Du Bois, James Clifford, and Arjun Appadurai in order to reflect upon the fluidity of Morrison’s and Naylor’s works. I show how these two novelists subvert Faulkner’s essentialist perception of truth, and of racial and gendered identity. They associate the myth of the Flying African with the notion of hybridity by making their male protagonists criss-cross Northern and Southern regions. I refer to Mae Gwendolyn Henderson’s article on “Speaking in Tongues” in my analysis of how Naylor subverts the patriarchal text of both Faulkner and Morrison in embarking on a more feminine version of the flying African, which she relates to an ex-slave, Sapphira Wade, a volatile female character who resists fixed claim over her story and identity. In dealing with the concept of hybridity, I show that Naylor rewrites both authors’ South by making Willow Springs a more fluid space, an assumption that unsettles the scores of critics who associate the island with authenticity and exclusive rootedness.

Using a Combination of Phylogenetic Comparative and Paleobotanical Methods to Elucidate Patterns of Lineage Selection in Rosales (Plantae: Anthophyta)

An increasing focus in evolutionary biology is on the interplay between mesoscale ecological and evolutionary processes such as population demographics, habitat tolerance, and especially geographic distribution, as potential drivers responsible for patterns of diversification and extinction over geologic time. However, few studies to date connect organismal processes such as survival and reproduction through mesoscale patterns to long-term macroevolutionary trends. In my dissertation, I investigate how mechanism of seed dispersal, mediated through geographic range size, influences diversification rates in the Rosales (Plantae: Anthophyta). In my first chapter, I validate the phylogenetic comparative methods that I use in my second and third chapters. Available state speciation and extinction (SSE) models assumptions about evolution known to be false through fossil data. I show, however, that as long as net diversification rates remain positive – a condition likely true for the Rosales – these violations of SSE’s assumptions do not cause significantly biased results. With SSE methods validated, my second chapter reconstructs three associations that appear to increase diversification rate for Rosalean genera: (1) herbaceous habit; (2) a three-way interaction combining animal dispersal, high within-genus species richness, and geographic range on multiple continents; (3) a four-way interaction combining woody habit with the other three characteristics of (2). I suggest that the three- and four-way interactions represent colonization ability and resulting extinction resistance in the face of late Cenozoic climate change; however, there are other possibilities as well that I hope to investigate in future research. My third chapter reconstructs the phylogeographic history of the Rosales using both non-fossil-assisted SSE methods as well as fossil-informed traditional phylogeographic analysis. Ancestral state reconstructions indicate that the Rosaceae diversified in North America while the other Rosalean families diversified elsewhere, possibly in Eurasia. SSE is able to successfully identify groups of genera that were likely to have been ancestrally widespread, but has poorer taxonomic resolution than methods that use fossil data. In conclusion, these chapters together suggest several potential causal links between organismal, mesoscale, and geologic scale processes, but further work will be needed to test the hypotheses that I raise here.

Rupture et continuité : étude comparative du clergé anglo-saxon du Xe siècle issu de la Regularis Concordia avec le clergé anglo-normand des XIe et XIIe siècles

Ce mémoire a pour but de comparer l’état du clergé anglo-saxon de la période de la Regularis Concordia du Xe siècle, avec celui du clergé anglo-normand d’après conquête situé entre 1060 et 1150. La base de cette recherche se fera à partir des sources narratives les plus pertinentes pour cette période. Mais celles-ci ne seront utilisées qu’en support puisque l’essentiel de ce mémoire sera basé sur le dépouillement des listes d’archevêques, d’évêques et d’abbés ayant vécu entre 1060 à 1150. Nous détaillerons leurs origines géographiques, les charges qu’ils ont occupées durant leur vie de même que leurs réseaux sociaux. Nous tenterons de démontrer que contrairement à l’idée reçue, il n’y eut pas de véritable réforme du clergé anglo-normand suite à la conquête, mais davantage une mise à jour de ce dernier, et qu’en fait, le modèle de gouvernance qui fut imposé au clergé anglo-normand au tournant du XIIe siècle fut largement inspiré du fonctionnement de l’Église normande.

A COMPARATIVE STUDY AND EVALUATION OF COLLABORATIVE RECOMMENDATION SYSTEMS

Consumers currently enjoy a surplus of goods (books, videos, music, or other items) available to purchase. While this surplus often allows a consumer to find a product tailored to their preferences or needs, the volume of items available may require considerable time or effort on the part of the user to find the most relevant item. Recommendation systems have become a common part of many online business that supply users books, videos, music, or other items to consumers. These systems attempt to provide assistance to consumers in finding the items that fit their preferences. This report presents an overview of recommendation systems. We will also briefly explore the history of recommendation systems and the large boost that was given to research in this field due to the Netflix Challenge. The classical methods for collaborative recommendation systems are reviewed and implemented, and an examination is performed contrasting the complexity and performance among the various models. Finally, current challenges and approaches are discussed.

The effect of mobile technology as an active student response system on the acquisition of U.S. history content of secondary students with specific learning disabilities

Students with specific learning disabilities (SLD) typically learn less history content than their peers without disabilities and show fewer learning gains. Even when they are provided with the same instructional strategies, many students with SLD struggle to grasp complex historical concepts and content area vocabulary. Many strategies involving technology have been used in the past to enhance learning for students with SLD in history classrooms. However, very few studies have explored the effectiveness of emerging mobile technology in K-12 history classrooms. ^ This study investigated the effects of mobile devices (iPads) as an active student response (ASR) system on the acquisition of U.S. history content of middle school students with SLD. An alternating treatments single subject design was used to compare the effects of two interventions. There were two conditions and a series of pretest probesin this study. The conditions were: (a) direct instruction and studying from handwritten notes using the interactive notebook strategy and (b) direct instruction and studying using the Quizlet App on the iPad. There were three dependent variables in this study: (a) percent correct on tests, (b) rate of correct responses per minute, and (c) rate of errors per minute. ^ A comparative analysis suggested that both interventions (studying from interactive notes and studying using Quizlet on the iPad) had varying degrees of effectiveness in increasing the learning gains of students with SLD. In most cases, both interventions were equally effective. During both interventions, all of the participants increased their percentage correct and increased their rate of correct responses. Most of the participants decreased their rate of errors. ^ The results of this study suggest that teachers of students with SLD should consider a post lesson review in the form of mobile devices as an ASR system or studying from handwritten notes paired with existing evidence-based practices to facilitate students’ knowledge in U.S. history. Future research should focus on the use of other interactive applications on various mobile operating platforms, on other social studies subjects, and should explore various testing formats such as oral question-answer and multiple choice. ^

Rupture et continuité : étude comparative du clergé anglo-saxon du Xe siècle issu de la Regularis Concordia avec le clergé anglo-normand des XIe et XIIe siècles

Ce mémoire a pour but de comparer l’état du clergé anglo-saxon de la période de la Regularis Concordia du Xe siècle, avec celui du clergé anglo-normand d’après conquête situé entre 1060 et 1150. La base de cette recherche se fera à partir des sources narratives les plus pertinentes pour cette période. Mais celles-ci ne seront utilisées qu’en support puisque l’essentiel de ce mémoire sera basé sur le dépouillement des listes d’archevêques, d’évêques et d’abbés ayant vécu entre 1060 à 1150. Nous détaillerons leurs origines géographiques, les charges qu’ils ont occupées durant leur vie de même que leurs réseaux sociaux. Nous tenterons de démontrer que contrairement à l’idée reçue, il n’y eut pas de véritable réforme du clergé anglo-normand suite à la conquête, mais davantage une mise à jour de ce dernier, et qu’en fait, le modèle de gouvernance qui fut imposé au clergé anglo-normand au tournant du XIIe siècle fut largement inspiré du fonctionnement de l’Église normande.

Work, class and conflict: a comparative study of three Cork factories, incorporating oral testimony

This dissertation presents a comparative study of three factories in Cork Harbour area, Sunbeam Wolsey (1927-90), Irish Steel (1939-2001) and the Ford Marina Plant (1917-84). All three factories were significant industrial employers in both a domestic (Irish) and a local (Cork) context and are broadly representative of the Irish manufacturing industry that was developed under the policies of tariff protection introduced in the 1930s and gradually phased out between the late 1950s and the mid-1980s. Sunbeam Wolsey was a textile and clothing concern located on the north side of Cork City that possessed a borderline monopoly within its economic sector and was among the largest private employers of female labour in twentieth century Ireland. Irish Steel was the country’s only steel mill, located on Haulbowline island, a brief ferry-ride from the seaside town of Cobh, and was unusual in being one of the few manufacturing concerns operated as a nationalised industry under the auspices of the state. The Ford Marina plant predated the introduction of protectionism by more than a decade and began as the centre of the Ford empire’s tractor manufacturing business, before switching to the production of private motor vehicles for the Irish market in 1932. All three industries were closed or sold off when the state withdrew support, either in the form of tariff protection (Ford, Sunbeam) or direct funding (Irish Steel). While devoting much attention to the three firms, the central concern of this dissertation is not the companies themselves (though the economic history portion of the dissertation is substantial), but the workers they employed, examining the lives of these individuals both as members of the Irish working class, and, more specifically, as employees of the three factories under consideration. The project can be best described as a comparative factory study, comparing and contrasting the three workforces, focusing primarily on industrial relation and the experience of work. This dissertation utilises both documentary evidence and a significant quantity of oral testimony, breaking new ground by making the workplace the central focus of its investigation. The principal aims of the study are: 1. To document the lives of those who worked in these factories, capturing through oral testimony their subjective experiences of social class and factory life, as well as differences among narrators in terms of gender and status. In achieving this aim, the study will provide a broader social context for its detailed analysis of work and industrial relations in each firm. 2. To analyse the three workplaces and determine how and why each developed such distinct systems of industrial relations at the factory level, as well as to compare and contrast these systems. 3. To examine the nature of work in each factory and to determine how work and industrial relations in each firm developed over time, relating these changes both to internal and external factors. Additionally, the project will provide a comparative analysis of these changes.

Phylogeographic Triangulation: Using Predator-Prey-Parasite Interactions to Infer Population History from Partial Genetic Information

Phylogeographic studies, which infer population history and dispersal movements from intra-specific spatial genetic variation, require expensive and time-consuming analyses that are not always feasible, especially in the case of rare or endangered species. On the other hand, comparative phylogeography of species involved in close biotic interactions may show congruent patterns depending on the specificity of the relationship. Consequently, the phylogeography of a parasite that needs two hosts to complete its life cycle should reflect population history traits of both hosts. Population movements evidenced by the parasite’s phylogeography that are not reflected in the phylogeography of one of these hosts may thus be attributed to the other host. Using the wild rabbit (Oryctolagus cuniculus) and a parasitic tapeworm (Taenia pisiformis) as an example, we propose comparing the phylogeography of easily available organisms such as game species and their specific heteroxenous parasites to infer population movements of definitive host/predator species, independently of performing genetic analyses on the latter. This may be an interesting approach for indirectly studying the history of species whose phylogeography is difficult to analyse directly.

Multiscale comparative analysis of marine biominerals and their ecological implications

Marine biomineralizing organisms provide a fundamental link between biology and environment. Calcified structure are important archives that can provide us main means of understanding organism adaptation, habits, environmental characteristics, and to look back in time and explore the past climate and their evolutionary history. In fact, biomineralized structures retain an unparalleled record of current and past ocean conditions through the investigation of their microchemistry and isotopes. This thesis considers aspects of two different biomineralization systems: fish otolith and coral skeletons at macro-, micro- and nanoscale, with the aim to understand how their morphology, structural characteristics and compositions can provide information of their functionality, and the environmental, behavioural, and evolutionary context in which organisms are framed. To this end, I applied a multidisciplinary approach in the scope to investigate calcified structures as “information recorders” and as models to study the phenotypic plasticity.