Hybrid wind-diesel power plant valuation and optimization using real option theory and dynamic programming

El sistema de energía eólica-diesel híbrido tiene un gran potencial en la prestación de suministro de energía a comunidades remotas. En comparación con los sistemas tradicionales de diesel, las plantas de energía híbridas ofrecen grandes ventajas tales como el suministro de capacidad de energía extra para "microgrids", reducción de los contaminantes y emisiones de gases de efecto invernadero, y la cobertura del riesgo de aumento inesperado del precio del combustible. El principal objetivo de la presente tesis es proporcionar nuevos conocimientos para la evaluación y optimización de los sistemas de energía híbrido eólico-diesel considerando las incertidumbres. Dado que la energía eólica es una variable estocástica, ésta no puede ser controlada ni predecirse con exactitud. La naturaleza incierta del viento como fuente de energía produce serios problemas tanto para la operación como para la evaluación del valor del sistema de energía eólica-diesel híbrido. Por un lado, la regulación de la potencia inyectada desde las turbinas de viento es una difícil tarea cuando opera el sistema híbrido. Por otro lado, el bene.cio económico de un sistema eólico-diesel híbrido se logra directamente a través de la energía entregada a la red de alimentación de la energía eólica. Consecuentemente, la incertidumbre de los recursos eólicos incrementa la dificultad de estimar los beneficios globales en la etapa de planificación. La principal preocupación del modelo tradicional determinista es no tener en cuenta la incertidumbre futura a la hora de tomar la decisión de operación. Con lo cual, no se prevé las acciones operativas flexibles en respuesta a los escenarios futuros. El análisis del rendimiento y simulación por ordenador en el Proyecto Eólico San Cristóbal demuestra que la incertidumbre sobre la energía eólica, las estrategias de control, almacenamiento de energía, y la curva de potencia de aerogeneradores tienen un impacto significativo sobre el rendimiento del sistema. En la presente tesis, se analiza la relación entre la teoría de valoración de opciones y el proceso de toma de decisiones. La opción real se desarrolla con un modelo y se presenta a través de ejemplos prácticos para evaluar el valor de los sistemas de energía eólica-diesel híbridos. Los resultados muestran que las opciones operacionales pueden aportar un valor adicional para el sistema de energía híbrida, cuando esta flexibilidad operativa se utiliza correctamente. Este marco se puede aplicar en la optimización de la operación a corto plazo teniendo en cuenta la naturaleza dependiente de la trayectoria de la política óptima de despacho, dadas las plausibles futuras realizaciones de la producción de energía eólica. En comparación con los métodos de valoración y optimización existentes, el resultado del caso de estudio numérico muestra que la política de operación resultante del modelo de optimización propuesto presenta una notable actuación en la reducción del con- sumo total de combustible del sistema eólico-diesel. Con el .n de tomar decisiones óptimas, los operadores de plantas de energía y los gestores de éstas no deben centrarse sólo en el resultado directo de cada acción operativa, tampoco deberían tomar decisiones deterministas. La forma correcta es gestionar dinámicamente el sistema de energía teniendo en cuenta el valor futuro condicionado en cada opción frente a la incertidumbre. ABSTRACT Hybrid wind-diesel power systems have a great potential in providing energy supply to remote communities. Compared with the traditional diesel systems, hybrid power plants are providing many advantages such as providing extra energy capacity to the micro-grid, reducing pollution and greenhouse-gas emissions, and hedging the risk of unexpected fuel price increases. This dissertation aims at providing novel insights for assessing and optimizing hybrid wind-diesel power systems considering the related uncertainties. Since wind power can neither be controlled nor accurately predicted, the energy harvested from a wind turbine may be considered a stochastic variable. This uncertain nature of wind energy source results in serious problems for both the operation and value assessment of the hybrid wind-diesel power system. On the one hand, regulating the uncertain power injected from wind turbines is a difficult task when operating the hybrid system. On the other hand, the economic profit of a hybrid wind-diesel system is achieved directly through the energy delivered to the power grid from the wind energy. Therefore, the uncertainty of wind resources has increased the difficulty in estimating the total benefits in the planning stage. The main concern of the traditional deterministic model is that it does not consider the future uncertainty when making the dispatch decision. Thus, it does not provide flexible operational actions in response to the uncertain future scenarios. Performance analysis and computer simulation on the San Cristobal Wind Project demonstrate that the wind power uncertainty, control strategies, energy storage, and the wind turbine power curve have a significant impact on the performance of the system. In this dissertation, the relationship between option pricing theory and decision making process is discussed. A real option model is developed and presented through practical examples for assessing the value of hybrid wind-diesel power systems. Results show that operational options can provide additional value to the hybrid power system when this operational flexibility is correctly utilized. This framework can be applied in optimizing short term dispatch decisions considering the path-dependent nature of the optimal dispatch policy, given the plausible future realizations of the wind power production. Comparing with the existing valuation and optimization methods, result from numerical example shows that the dispatch policy resulting from the proposed optimization model exhibits a remarkable performance in minimizing the total fuel consumption of the wind-diesel system. In order to make optimal decisions, power plant operators and managers should not just focus on the direct outcome of each operational action; neither should they make deterministic decisions. The correct way is to dynamically manage the power system by taking into consideration the conditional future value in each option in response to the uncertainty.

The folded plate model in structural analysis. Elastic, plastic and dynamic formulations for nonprismatic structures

A specific numerical procedure for the analysis of arbitrary nonprismatic folded plate structures is presented. An elastic model is studied and compared with a harmonic solution for a prismatic structure. An extension to the plastic analysis is developed, and the influence of the structural geometry and loading pattern is analyzed. Nonprismatic practical cases, with arbitrary geometry and loading are shown, as well in the elastic range as in the plastic one. Finally, a dynamic formulation is outlined

Chemical phenotype matching between a plant and its insect herbivore

Two potential outcomes of a coevolutionary interaction are an escalating arms race and stable cycling. The general expectation has been that arms races predominate in cases of polygenic inheritance of resistance traits and permanent cycling predominates in cases in which resistance is controlled by major genes. In the interaction between Depressaria pastinacella, the parsnip webworm, and Pastinaca sativa, the wild parsnip, traits for plant resistance to insect herbivory (production of defensive furanocoumarins) as well as traits for herbivore “virulence” (ability to metabolize furanocoumarins) are characterized by continuous heritable variation. Furanocoumarin production in plants and rates of metabolism in insects were compared among four midwestern populations; these traits then were classified into four clusters describing multitrait phenotypes occurring in all or most of the populations. When the frequency of plant phenotypes belonging to each of the clusters is compared with the frequency of the insect phenotypes in each of the clusters across populations, a remarkable degree of frequency matching is revealed in three of the populations. That frequencies of phenotypes vary among populations is consistent with the fact that spatial variation occurs in the temporal cycling of phenotypes; such processes contribute in generating a geographic mosaic in this coevolutionary interaction on the landscape scale. Comparisons of contemporary plant phenotype distributions with phenotypes of herbarium specimens collected 9–125 years ago from across a similar latitudinal gradient, however, suggest that for at least one resistance trait—sphondin concentration—interactions with webworms have led to escalatory change.

A method for directed evolution and functional cloning of enzymes

A general scheme is described for the in vitro evolution of protein catalysts in a biologically amplifiable system. Substrate is covalently and site specifically attached by a flexible tether to the pIII coat protein of a filamentous phage that also displays the catalyst. Intramolecular conversion of substrate to product provides a basis for selecting active catalysts from a library of mutants, either by release from or attachment to a solid support. This methodology has been developed with the enzyme staphylococcal nuclease as a model. An analysis of factors influencing the selection efficiency is presented, and it is shown that phage displaying staphylococcal nuclease can be enriched 100-fold in a single step from a library-like ensemble of phage displaying noncatalytic proteins. Additionally, this approach should allow one to functionally clone natural enzymes, based on their ability to catalyze specific reactions (e.g., glycosyl transfer, sequence-specific proteolysis or phosphorylation, polymerization, etc.) rather than their sequence- or structural homology to known enzymes.

An endogenous rate of time preference, the Penrose effect, and dynamic optimality of environmental quality.

In the present paper, the endogenous theory of time preference is extended to analyze those processes of capital accumulation and changes in environmental quality that are dynamically optimum with respect to the intertemporal preference ordering of the representative individual of the society in question. The analysis is carried out within the conceptual framework of the dynamic analysis of environmental quality, as has been developed by a number of economists for specific cases of the fisheries and forestry commons. The duality principles on intertemporal preference ordering and capital accumulation are extended to the situation where processes of capital accumulation are subject to the Penrose effect, which exhibit the marginal decrease in the effect of investment in private and social overhead capital upon the rate at which capital is accumulated. The dynamically optimum time-path of economic activities is characterized by the proportionality of two systems of imputed, or efficient, prices, one associated with the given intertemporal ordering and another associated with processes of accumulation of private and social overhead capital. It is particularly shown that the dynamically optimality of the processes of capital accumulation involving both private and social overhead capital is characterized by the conditions that are identical with those involving private capital, with the role of social overhead capital only indirectly exhibited.

Mechanisms that Trigger a Good Health-Care Response to Intimate Partner Violence in Spain. Combining Realist Evaluation and Qualitative Comparative Analysis Approaches

Background. Health care professionals, especially those working in primary health-care services, can play a key role in preventing and responding to intimate partner violence. However, there are huge variations in the way health care professionals and primary health care teams respond to intimate partner violence. In this study we tested a previously developed programme theory on 15 primary health care center teams located in four different Spanish regions: Murcia, C Valenciana, Castilla-León and Cantabria. The aim was to identify the key combinations of contextual factors and mechanisms that trigger a good primary health care center team response to intimate partner violence. Methods. A multiple case-study design was used. Qualitative and quantitative information was collected from each of the 15 centers (cases). In order to handle the large amount of information without losing familiarity with each case, qualitative comparative analysis was undertaken. Conditions (context and mechanisms) and outcomes, were identified and assessed for each of the 15 cases, and solution formulae were calculated using qualitative comparative analysis software. Results. The emerging programme theory highlighted the importance of the combination of each team’s self-efficacy, perceived preparation and women-centredness in generating a good team response to intimate partner violence. The use of the protocol and accumulated experience in primary health care were the most relevant contextual/intervention conditions to trigger a good response. However in order to achieve this, they must be combined with other conditions, such as an enabling team climate, having a champion social worker and having staff with training in intimate partner violence. Conclusions. Interventions to improve primary health care teams’ response to intimate partner violence should focus on strengthening team’s self-efficacy, perceived preparation and the implementation of a woman-centred approach. The use of the protocol combined with a large working experience in primary health care, and other factors such as training, a good team climate, and having a champion social worker on the team, also played a key role. Measures to sustain such interventions and promote these contextual factors should be encouraged.

Targetless image-based method for measuring displacements and strains on concrete surfaces with a consumer camera

Measurement of concrete strain through non-invasive methods is of great importance in civil engineering and structural analysis. Traditional methods use laser speckle and high quality cameras that may result too expensive for many applications. Here we present a method for measuring concrete deformations with a standard reflex camera and image processing for tracking objects in the concretes surface. Two different approaches are presented here. In the first one, on-purpose objects are drawn on the surface, while on the second one we track small defects on the surface due to air bubbles in the hardening process. The method has been tested on a concrete sample under several loading/unloading cycles. A stop-motion sequence of the process has been captured and analyzed. Results have been successfully compared with the values given by a strain gauge. Accuracy of our methods in tracking objects is below 8 μm, in the order of more expensive commercial devices.

What Future for the Eurozone? Combining Discipline, Solidarity and Institutional Reforms. European Policy Brief No. 27, March 2014

This Policy Brief discusses the challenges that await policymakers in reforming the EMU. A balance between discipline and solidarity will have to be found, while institutional reforms should improve the eurozone’s legitimacy and efficiency. The key decisions on EMU reforms will have to be made during the 2014-2019 parliamentary term, as the window of opportunity for major reforms is likely to be closed afterwards.

Mineral and chemical composition of hydrothermally altered rocks and sediments from the Middle Valley, ODP Leg 139 data

The Middle Valley segment at the northern end of the Juan de Fuca Ridge is a deep extensional rift blanketed with 200-500 m of Pleistocene turbiditic sediment. Sites 857 and 858 were drilled during Ocean Drilling Program Leg 139 to determine whether these two sites were hydrologically linked end members of an active hydrothermal circulation system. Site 858 was placed in an area of active hydrothermal discharge with fluids up to 270°C venting through anhydrite-bearing mounds on top of altered sediment. The shallow basement of fine-grained basalt that underlies the vents at Site 858 is interpreted as a seamount that was subsequently buried by turbidites. Site 857 was placed 1.6 km south of the Site 858 vents in a zone of high heat flow and numerous seismically imaged ridge-parallel faults. Drilling at Site 857 encountered sediments that are increasingly altered with depth and that overlie a series of mafic sills at depths of 460-940 m below sea floor. Sill margins and adjacent baked sediment are highly altered to magnesian chlorite and crosscut with veins filled with quartz, chlorite, sulfides, epidote, and wairakite. The sill interiors vary from slightly altered, with unaltered plagioclase and clinopyroxene in a mesostasis replaced by chlorite, to local zones of intense alteration and brecciation. In these latter zones, the sill interiors are pervasively replaced by chlorite, epidote, quartz, pyrite, titanite, and rare actinolite. The most complete replacement is associated with brecciated horizons with low recovery and slickensides on fracture surfaces, which we interpret as intersections between faults and the sills. Geochemically, the alteration of the sill complex is reflected in significant whole-rock depletions in Ca, Sr, and Na with corresponding enrichments in Mg, Al, and most metals. The latter results from the formation of conspicuous sulfide poikiloblasts. In contrast, metamorphism of the Site 858 seamount includes incomplete albitization of plagioclase phenocrysts and replacement of sparse mafic phenocrysts. Much of the basement alteration at Site 858 is confined to crosscutting veins except for a highly altered and veined horizon at the contact between basaltic basement and the overlying sediment. The sill complex at Site 857 is more highly depleted in 18O (d18O = 2.4 per mil - 4.7 per mil) and more pervasively replaced by secondary minerals relative to the extrusives at Site 858 (d18O = 4.5 per mil - 5.5 per mil). There is no evidence of significant albitization of the plagioclase at Site 857, suggesting high Ca/Na in the pore fluids. Fluid-inclusion data from hydrothermal minerals in altered mafic rocks and veins at Sites 857 and 858 show a consistency of homogenization temperatures, varying from 245 to 270°C, which is within the range of temperatures observed for the fluids venting at Site 858. The consistency of the fluid inclusion temperatures, the lack of albitization within the Site 857 sills, and the apparently low water/rock ratio collectively suggest that the sill complex at Site 857 is in thermal equilibrium and being altered by a highly evolved Ca-rich fluid similar to the fluids now venting at Site 858. The alteration evident in these two deep crustal drillsites is a result of the ongoing hydrothermal circulation and is consistent with downhole logging results, instrumented borehole results, and hydrothermal fluid chemistry. The pervasive alteration of the laterally extensive sill-sediment complex at Site 857 determines the chemistry of the fluids that are venting at Site 858. The limited alteration of the Site 858 lavas suggests that this basement edifice acts as a penetrator or ventilator for the regional hydrothermal reservoir with much of the flow focussed at the highly altered and veined sediment-basalt contact.

Chemical composition of Fe-Mn nodules and crusts from the North Atlantic

In terms of physical and genetic features studied nodules are assigned to the sedimentational manganese-iron type (Canary Basin) and to the iron-containing type (Guyana Basin). They are enriched in Fe, Co and Pb and depleted in Mn, Ni, Cu, and Zn. Cores of the nodules from the Canary Basin consist primarily of peridotite, gabbro, dolerite, and metamorphic rock. Great predominance of peridotite and gabbro indicates that blocks of ocean crust underwent considerable displacement, bringing the third and fourth layers of a crust to the surface.

Chemical compositions of Fe-Mn nodules and host sediments from the Northwest Pacific

A number of regularities of ore element accumulation in iron-manganese nodules along the profile from the Tsugaru Strait to the Wake Atoll is identified in the paper. It is shown that the ore process is enhanced to the pelagic zone: in nodules content of ore material increases and content of mineral insoluble residue decreases from near-shore areas to central parts of the ocean. Diagenetic redistribution of the elements between host sediments and nodules resulting to enrichment of the latter increases from bottom sediments of the ocean periphery to fine grained pelagic muds. At absolute enrichment by Fe, Mn, Cu, Ni, Co, Mo, W, Ti, Zr, and V (as compared to host sediments) nodules are relatively enriched in Mn group elements (Cu, Ni, Co, Mo, W) and consequently depleted in Fe group elements (Ti, V, Zr) in the direction from the periphery to the center of the ocean. The ratio of reactive forms of Fe and Mn in host sediments is a factor determining the ratio of Fe group and Mn group elements in nodules.