Fiscal Year 2007 Workforce, Business Service Training Annual Report

Annual Report

Relative price riddles in international business cycle theory: Are transport costs the explanation?

We study relative price behavior in an international business cyclemodel with specialization in production, in which a goods marketfriction is introduced through transport costs. The transporttechnology allows for flexible transport costs. We analyze whetherthis extension can account for the striking differences betweentheory and data as far as the moments of terms of trade and realexchange rates are concerned. We find that transport costs increaseboth the volatility of the terms of trade and the volatility of thereal exchange rate. However, unless the transport technology isspecified by a Leontief technology, transport costs do not resolvethe quantitative discrepancies between theory and data. Asurprising result is that transport costs may actually lower thepersistence of the real exchange rate, a finding that is in contrastto much of the emphasis of the empirical literature.

Audit report on the Iowa State Center Business Office of Iowa State University of Science and Technology for the year ended June 30, 2007

Audit report on the Iowa State Center Business Office of Iowa State University of Science and Technology for the year ended June 30, 2007

Controlo interno na prevenção de erros e fraudes

Atualmente, as situações de erros e fraudes, têm ocorrido com muita frequência a nível mundial. Por exemplo em Cabo Verde estas têm vindo a ganhar espaço nos mídias, onde a todo momento aparece casos de erros e fraudes, como por exemplo, os casos da Sociedade Cabo-verdiana de Tabacos, Banco Comercial do Atlântico, Caixa Económica, Câmara Municipal da Ribeira Brava, Associação Sport Club Moreirense, Sociedade de Segurança Industrial, Marítima e Comercial, Ministério das Finanças entre outros. Essas situações desfavoráveis para qualquer empresa, são derivadas de uma gestão menos cuidada dos recursos, e dos valores e princípios éticos cultivados pelas pessoas. O triângulo de fraude criada por Donald Cressey demonstra os motivos que leva um individuo a cometer atos fraudulentos, como sendo a motivação, a pressão e a oportunidade. Neste sentido, o controlo interno surge como uma ferramenta muito importante e fundamental para mitigar os riscos advenientes da ocorrência de erros e fraudes, suscetíveis de acontecer nas empresas. O controlo interno traduz num conjunto de medidas que protegem o património da empresa e garantem o cumprimento dos seus objetivos entretanto, como qualquer outra ferramenta de gestão está possui determinadas limitações que podem ser ultrapassadas com a utilização de alguns procedimentos básicos e, ou alternativos de controlo interno. É imprescindível que um sistema de controlo interno, para além de implementado, adequado e em funcionamento, seja mantido e acompanhado. O estudo dos casos da SILMAC, SA e da SCT, SA, mostram a importância que o controlo interno tem na prevenção e deteção de erros e fraudes, pois denota-se que as fraudes cometidas aconteceram na sequência de fraquezas de controlo interno e no excesso de confiança depositada nos colaboradores. Currently, the situations of errors and fraud have occurred very often in the world. Cape Verde in these situations have gained ground in the media, where every moment appears to errors and fraud cases, such as cases of “Sociedade cabo-verdiana de tabacos, Banco Comercial do Atlântico, Caixa Económica, Câmara Municipal da Ribeira Brava, Associação Sport Club Moreirense, Sociedade de segurança industrial, marítima e comercial, Ministério de finanças” amongst others. These situations which unfavorable for any company, are derived from a less carefully management of resources and ethical principles and values cultivated by people. The fraud triangle created by Donald Cressey, demonstrates reasons that lead an individual to commit fraudulent acts, such as motivation, opportunity and pressure. In this sense, internal control emerges as a very important tool to mitigate the risks arising from situations of errors and fraud, which are likely to happen in companies. The internal control translates into a set of measures that protect the assets of the business and ensure the fulfillment of its objectives however, like any other management tool is has limitations, however these can be overcome with the use of basic procedures, or alternative internal control. It is essential that an internal control system, in addition to implemented, adequate and functioning is maintained and monitored. The case studies of SILMAC and SCT, show the importance of internal control is the prevention and detection of errors and fraud. For note that the fraud occurred following oversights in its internal control and confidence in their employees.

Targeted Small Business Program Report, 2008

Targeted Small Business (TSB) compliance is authorized by Iowa Code Chapter 19B.7. Iowa Code Chapters 73.16-73.19 requires the establishment of TSB procurement provisions through the Departments of Management, Inspections and Appeals and Economic Development. This report will provide an overview of the State of Iowa’s Targeted Small Business Program and efforts to assure equal opportunity through targeted small business procurement during FY 2007.

Is lumpy investment really irrelevant for the business cycle?

New-Keynesian (NK) models can only account for the dynamic effects of monetary policy shocks if it is assumed that aggregate capital accumulation is much smoother than it would be the case under frictionless firm-level investment, as discussed in Woodford (2003, Ch. 5). We find that lumpy investment, when combined with price stickiness and market power of firms,can rationalize this assumption. Our main result is in stark contrast with the conclusions obtained by Thomas (2002) in the context of a real business cycle (RBC) model. We use our model to explain the economic mechanism behind this difference in the predictions of RBC and NK theory.

On the sources of business cycles in the G-7

This paper examines sources of cyclical movements in output, inflation and the term structure of interest rates. It employs a novel identification approach which uses the sign of the cross correlation function in response to shocks to catalog orthogonal disturbances. We find that demand shocks are the dominant source output, inflation and term structure fluctuations in six of the G-7 countries. Within the class of demand disturbances, nominal shocks are dominant, but their importance declined after 1982. Furthermore, there are no significant differences in the proportion of term structure variability explained by different structural sources at different horizons.

Disability, capacity for work and the business cycle: An international perspective

An important policy issue in recent years concerns the number of people claimingdisability benefits for reasons of incapacity for work. We distinguish between workdisability , which may have its roots in economic and social circumstances, and healthdisability which arises from clear diagnosed medical conditions. Although there is a linkbetween work and health disability, economic conditions, and in particular the businesscycle and variations in the risk of unemployment over time and across localities, mayplay an important part in explaining both the stock of disability benefit claimants andinflows to and outflow from that stock. We employ a variety of cross?country andcountry?specific household panel data sets, as well as administrative data, to testwhether disability benefit claims rise when unemployment is higher, and also toinvestigate the impact of unemployment rates on flows on and off the benefit rolls. Wefind strong evidence that local variations in unemployment have an importantexplanatory role for disability benefit receipt, with higher total enrolments, loweroutflows from rolls and, often, higher inflows into disability rolls in regions and periodsof above?average unemployment. Although general subjective measures of selfreporteddisability and longstanding illness are also positively associated withunemployment rates, inclusion of self?reported health measures does not eliminate thestatistical relationship between unemployment rates and disability benefit receipt;indeed including general measures of health often strengthens that underlyingrelationship. Intriguingly, we also find some evidence from the United Kingdom and theUnited States that the prevalence of self?reported objective specific indicators ofdisability are often pro?cyclical that is, the incidence of specific forms of disability arepro?cyclical whereas claims for disability benefits given specific health conditions arecounter?cyclical. Overall, the analysis suggests that, for a range of countries and datasets, levels of claims for disability benefits are not simply related to changes in theincidence of health disability in the population and are strongly influenced by prevailingeconomic conditions. We discuss the policy implications of these various findings.

Inequality over the business cycle: Estimating income risk using micro-data on consumption

We use CEX repeated cross-section data on consumption and income, to evaluate the nature of increased income inequality in the 1980s and 90s. We decompose unexpected changes in family income into transitory and permanent, and idiosyncratic and aggregate components, and estimate the contribution of each component to total inequality. The model we use is a linearized incomplete markets model, enriched to incorporate risk-sharing while maintaining tractability. Our estimates suggest that taking risk sharing into account is important for the model fit; that the increase in inequality in the 1980s was mainly permanent; and that inequality is driven almost entirely by idiosyncratic income risk. In addition we find no evidence for cyclical behavior of consumption risk, casting doubt on Constantinides and Duffie s (1995) explanation for the equity premium puzzle.

Entrepreneurial success and failure: Confidence and fallible judgement

Excess entry or the high failure rate of market-entry decisions is often attributed tooverconfidence exhibited by entreprene urs. We show analytically that whereas excess entryis an inevitable consequence of imperfect assessments of entrepreneurial skill, it does notimply overconfidence. Judgmental fallibility leads to excess entry even when everyone isunderconfident. Self-selection implies greater confidence (but not necessarilyoverconfidence) among those who start new businesses than those who do not and amongsuccessful entrants than failures. Our results question claims that entrepreneurs areoverconfident and emphasize the need to understand the role of judgmental fallibility inproducing economic outcomes.

Review of Targeted Small Business (TSB) procurement activities for the period July 1, 2007 through September 30, 2007

Review of Targeted Small Business (TSB) procurement activities for the period July 1, 2007 through September 30, 2007

Crossing the Rio Grande: Migrations, business cycles and the welfare state

In this paper we study the macroeconomic effects of an inflow oflow-skilled workers into an economy where there is capital accumulation and two types of agents. We find that there are substantial dynamic effects following unexpected migrations with adjustments that resemble those triggered by a sudden disruption of the capital stock. We look at the interrelations between these dynamic effects and three different fiscal systems for the redistribution of income and find that these schemes can change the dynamics and lead to prolonged periods of adjustments. Theaggregate welfare implications are sensitive to the welfare system: while there are welfare gains without redistribution, these gains may be turned into costs when the state engages in redistribution.

Does money matter in shaping domestic business cycles? An international investigation (with appendices)

We study the contribution of money to business cycle fluctuations in the US,the UK, Japan, and the Euro area using a small scale structural monetary business cycle model. Constrained likelihood-based estimates of the parameters areprovided and time instabilities analyzed. Real balances are statistically importantfor output and inflation fluctuations. Their contribution changes over time. Models giving money no role provide a distorted representation of the sources of cyclicalfluctuations, of the transmission of shocks and of the events of the last 40 years.

Are these classical business cycles?

The aim of this paper is to test formally the classical business cyclehypothesis, using data from industrialized countries for the timeperiod since 1960. The hypothesis is characterized by the view that the cyclical structure in GDP is concentrated in the investment series: fixed investment has typically a long cycle, while the cycle in inventory investment is shorter. To check the robustness of our results, we subject the data for 15 OECD countries to a variety of detrending techniques. While the hypothesis is not confirmed uniformly for all countries, there is a considerably high number for which the data display the predicted pattern. None of the countries shows a pattern which can be interpreted as a clear rejection of the classical hypothesis.