A conditional likelihood ratio test for structural models

This paper develops a general method for constructing similar tests based on the conditional distribution of nonpivotal statistics in a simultaneous equations model with normal errors and known reducedform covariance matrix. The test based on the likelihood ratio statistic is particularly simple and has good power properties. When identification is strong, the power curve of this conditional likelihood ratio test is essentially equal to the power envelope for similar tests. Monte Carlo simulations also suggest that this test dominates the Anderson- Rubin test and the score test. Dropping the restrictive assumption of disturbances normally distributed with known covariance matrix, approximate conditional tests are found that behave well in small samples even when identification is weak.

Consumption-wealth ratio and expected stock returns: evidence from panel data

This paper investigates the role of consumption-wealth ratio on predicting future stock returns through a panel approach. We follow the theoretical framework proposed by Lettau and Ludvigson (2001), in which a model derived from a nonlinear consumer’s budget constraint is used to settle the link between consumption-wealth ratio and stock returns. Using G7’s quarterly aggregate and financial data ranging from the first quarter of 1981 to the first quarter of 2014, we set an unbalanced panel that we use for both estimating the parameters of the cointegrating residual from the shared trend among consumption, asset wealth and labor income, cay, and performing in and out-of-sample forecasting regressions. Due to the panel structure, we propose different methodologies of estimating cay and making forecasts from the one applied by Lettau and Ludvigson (2001). The results indicate that cay is in fact a strong and robust predictor of future stock return at intermediate and long horizons, but presents a poor performance on predicting one or two-quarter-ahead stock returns.

Consumption-Wealth Ratio and Expected Stock Returns: Evidence from Panel Data on G7 Countries

Using the theoretical framework of Lettau and Ludvigson (2001), we perform an empirical investigation on how widespread is the predictability of cay {a modi ed consumption-wealth ratio { once we consider a set of important countries from a global perspective. We chose to work with the set of G7 countries, which represent more than 64% of net global wealth and 46% of global GDP at market exchange rates. We evaluate the forecasting performance of cay using a panel-data approach, since applying cointegration and other time-series techniques is now standard practice in the panel-data literature. Hence, we generalize Lettau and Ludvigson's tests for a panel of important countries. We employ macroeconomic and nancial quarterly data for the group of G7 countries, forming an unbalanced panel. For most countries, data is available from the early 1990s until 2014Q1, but for the U.S. economy it is available from 1981Q1 through 2014Q1. Results of an exhaustive empirical investigation are overwhelmingly in favor of the predictive power of cay in forecasting future stock returns and excess returns.

Undersampled Critical Branching Processes on Small-World and Random Networks Fail to Reproduce the Statistics of Spike Avalanches

The power-law size distributions obtained experimentally for neuronal avalanches are an important evidence of criticality in the brain. This evidence is supported by the fact that a critical branching process exhibits the same exponent t~3=2. Models at criticality have been employed to mimic avalanche propagation and explain the statistics observed experimentally. However, a crucial aspect of neuronal recordings has been almost completely neglected in the models: undersampling. While in a typical multielectrode array hundreds of neurons are recorded, in the same area of neuronal tissue tens of thousands of neurons can be found. Here we investigate the consequences of undersampling in models with three different topologies (two-dimensional, small-world and random network) and three different dynamical regimes (subcritical, critical and supercritical). We found that undersampling modifies avalanche size distributions, extinguishing the power laws observed in critical systems. Distributions from subcritical systems are also modified, but the shape of the undersampled distributions is more similar to that of a fully sampled system. Undersampled supercritical systems can recover the general characteristics of the fully sampled version, provided that enough neurons are measured. Undersampling in two-dimensional and small-world networks leads to similar effects, while the random network is insensitive to sampling density due to the lack of a well-defined neighborhood. We conjecture that neuronal avalanches recorded from local field potentials avoid undersampling effects due to the nature of this signal, but the same does not hold for spike avalanches. We conclude that undersampled branching-process-like models in these topologies fail to reproduce the statistics of spike avalanches.

Artificial fertilization of oocytes and sperm activation in pacu: effects of the spermatozoa:oocyte ratio, water volume, and in natura semen preservation

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Effects of the spermatozoa: oocyte ratio, water volume and water temperature on artificial fertilization and sperm activation of cascudo-preto

The objective of this study was to evaluate the effects of water volume and water temperature on the sperm motility duration and the number of spermatozoa, and the water volume on the fertilization rates of oocytes of Rhinelepis aspera. Experiments were carried out to evaluate the effect of semen dilutions (1.74×10-5, 1.74×10-4, 1.74×10-3, 1.74×10-2, 1.74×10-1 and 1.00 mL of sperm.mL-1 of water) and water temperature (5, 10, 15, 20, 25, 30, 35, 40, 45, and 50 ºC) on spermatozoa motility duration. In addition, the effects of insemination dose (7×10³, 7×10(4), 7×10(5), 7×10(6) and 7×10(7) spermatozoa.oocyte-1) and water volume (1.0, 30.0, 60.0, 90.0 and 120.0 mL water.2.0 mL-1 oocytes) on the artificial fertilization rates of oocytes were evaluated. The longest sperm motility duration were observed for the semen dilution of 1.74×10-5 mL semen.mL-1 water and in water at 5 ºC. The highest fertilization rates were obtained for insemination doses between 7.00×10³ and 1.23×10(7) spermatozoa. oocyte-1 and water volume of 28.11 mL water.2.0 mL-1 oocytes.

Modeling of interfaces in two-dimensional problems using solid finite elements with high aspect ratio

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Evaluation of the effect of the stoichiometric ratio of Ca/Cu on the electrical and microstructural properties of the CaCu3Ti4O12 polycrystalline system

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

The influence of area/volume ratio on microstructure and non-Ohmic properties of SnO2-based varistor ceramic blocks

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Describing fatigue crack growth and load ratio effects in Al 2524 T3 alloy with an enhanced exponential model

The fatigue crack behavior in metals and alloys under constant amplitude test conditions is usually described by relationships between the crack growth rate da/dN and the stress intensity factor range Delta K. In the present work, an enhanced two-parameter exponential equation of fatigue crack growth was introduced in order to describe sub-critical crack propagation behavior of Al 2524-T3 alloy, commonly used in aircraft engineering applications. It was demonstrated that besides adequately correlating the load ratio effects, the exponential model also accounts for the slight deviations from linearity shown by the experimental curves. A comparison with Elber, Kujawski and "Unified Approach" models allowed for verifying the better performance, when confronted to the other tested models, presented by the exponential model. (C) 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Maximum Phonation Time and s/z Ratio in a Large Child Cohort

Aim. The purpose of this study was to provide normal values for maximum phonation time (MPT) and the s/z ratio by examining 1660 children aged 4-12 years and without vocal signs or symptoms.Methods. The technique was based on the sustained emission of the /a/ vowel and fricatives /s/ and /z/.Results. The average of the MPT in children of the different age groups was as follows: 6.09 seconds for the age group 4-6 years (males, 5.97; female, 6.21 seconds), 7.94 seconds for the age group 7-9 years (males, 8.07; females, 7.79 seconds), and 8.98 for the age group 10-12 years (males, 9.05; females, 8.92 seconds). The overall average for males was 7.78 and females 7.64 seconds. The s/z ratio was near 1.0 in most children but above 1.2 in 133 children and below 0.8 in 133 children.Conclusion. These values of MPT and s/z ratio can be used as normative in further pediatric studies.

Influence of the ratio of particulate autogenous bone graft/platelet-rich plasma on bone healing in critical-size defects: a histologic and histometric study in rat calvaria

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Sex ratio and dynamic behavior in populations of the exotic blowfly Chrysomya albiceps (Diptera, Calliphoridae)

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)