Previsão estocástica de nível fluviométrico para cidade de Marabá-PA: método de Box-Jenkins

O Município de Marabá- PA, situado na região Amazônica, sudeste do Estado do Pará, sofre anualmente com eventos de enchentes, ocasionados pelo aumento periódico do rio Tocantins e pela situação de vulnerabilidade da população que reside em áreas de risco. A defesa civil estadual e municipal anualmente planeja e prepara equipes para ações de defesa no município. Nesta fase o monitoramento e previsão de eventos de enchentes são importantes. Portanto, com o objetivo de diminuir erros nas previsões hidrológicas para o Município de Marabá, desenvolveu-se um modelo estocástico para previsão de nível do rio Tocantins, baseado na metodologia de Box e Jenkins. Utilizou os dados de níveis diários observados nas estações hidrológicas de Marabá e Carolina e Conceição do Araguaia da Agência Nacional de Águas (ANA), do período de 01/12/ 2008 a 31/03/2011. Efetuou-se o ajustamento de três modelos (M_t, N_t e Y_t), através de diferentes aplicativos estatísticos: o SAS e o Gretl, usando diferentes interpretações do comportamento das séries para gerar as equações dos modelos. A principal diferença entre os aplicativos é que no SAS usa o modelo de função de transferência na modelagem. Realizou-se uma classificação da variabilidade do nível do rio, através da técnica dos Quantis para o período de 1972 a 2011, examinando-se apenas as categorizações de níveis ACIMA e MUITO ACIMA do normal. Para análise de impactos socioeconômicos foram usados os dados das ações da Defesa Civil Estado do Pará nas cheias de 2009 e 2011. Os resultados mostraram que o número de eventos de cheias com níveis MUITO ACIMA do normal, geralmente, podem estar associados a eventos de La Niña. Outro resultado importante: os modelos gerados simularam muito bem o nível do rio para o período de sete dias (01/04/2011 a 07/04/2011). O modelo multivariado N_t (com pequenos erros) representou o comportamento da série original, subestimando os valores reais nos dias 3, 4 e 5 de abril de 2011, com erro máximo de 0,28 no dia 4. O modelo univariado (Y_t) teve bons resultados nas simulações com erros absolutos em torno de 0,12 m. O modelo com menor erro absoluto (0,08m) para o mesmo período foi o modelo M_t, desenvolvido pelo aplicativo SAS, que interpreta a série original como sendo não linear e não estacionária. A análise quantitativa dos impactos fluviométricos, ocorridos nas enchentes de 2009 e 2011 na cidade de Marabá, revelou em média que mais de 4 mil famílias sofrem com estes eventos, implicado em gastos financeiros elevados. Logo, conclui-se que os modelos de previsão de níveis são importantes ferramentas que a Defesa Civil, utiliza no planejamento e preparo de ações preventivas para o município de Marabá.

Previsão da velocidade dos ventos por redes neurais artificiais e arima de box & jenkins

Pós-graduação em Engenharia Elétrica - FEIS

microRNA156-targeted SPL/ SBP box transcription factors regulate tomato ovary and fruit development

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Distribution and population structure of the flecked box crab Hepatus pudibundus (Decapoda, Brachyura) in the western South Atlantic

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

The bias in reversing the Box-Cox transformation in time series forecasting: An empirical study based on neural networks

The Box-Cox transformation is a technique mostly utilized to turn the probabilistic distribution of a time series data into approximately normal. And this helps statistical and neural models to perform more accurate forecastings. However, it introduces a bias when the reversion of the transformation is conducted with the predicted data. The statistical methods to perform a bias-free reversion require, necessarily, the assumption of Gaussianity of the transformed data distribution, which is a rare event in real-world time series. So, the aim of this study was to provide an effective method of removing the bias when the reversion of the Box-Cox transformation is executed. Thus, the developed method is based on a focused time lagged feedforward neural network, which does not require any assumption about the transformed data distribution. Therefore, to evaluate the performance of the proposed method, numerical simulations were conducted and the Mean Absolute Percentage Error, the Theil Inequality Index and the Signal-to-Noise ratio of 20-step-ahead forecasts of 40 time series were compared, and the results obtained indicate that the proposed reversion method is valid and justifies new studies. (C) 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A Tool Box Half Full: How Social Science can Help Solve Human–Wildlife Conflict

There is a growing recognition among wildlife managers that focusing management on wildlife often provides a temporary fix to human–wildlife conflicts, whereas changing human behavior can provide long-term solutions. Human dimensions research of wildlife conflicts frequently focuses on stakeholders’ characteristics, problem identification, and acceptability of management, and less frequently on human behavior and evaluation of management actions to change that behavior. Consequently, little information exists to assess overall success of management. We draw on our experience studying human–bear conflicts, and argue for more human dimensions studies that focus on change in human behavior to measure management success. We call for help from social scientists to conduct applied experiments utilizing two methods, direct observation and self-reported data, to measure change in behavior. We are optimistic these approaches will help fill the managers’ tool box and lead to better integration of human dimensions into human–wildlife conflict management.

“PROVINCIALISM, PICKING SIDES AND BIAS: EFFECTS OF GEOGRAPHY ON MEDIA COVERAGE OF CRYSTAL BRIDGES MUSEUM OF AMERICAN ART, 2005-10.”

The development of Crystal Bridges Museum of American Art in Bentonville, Arkansas, by Wal-Mart heiress Alice Walton has prompted diverse coverage from print and online media. This investigation looked at trends in news stories and commentary from 2005-10 to show how the location of a medium affected coverage. Through the author’s own observations and interviews with journalists and other interested parties, several trends emerged. Media outlets outside Arkansas portrayed the museum as trying to plunder the cultural heritage of local communities and relied partly on the museum’s association with Wal-Mart and stereotypes of Arkansas to frame coverage. Arkansas media, faced with limited cooperation from the museum’s public relations apparatus, typically played a cheerleader role, at times overemphasizing the importance of the collection in the art world and showcasing few critical voices in stories about acquisitions and other areas of the museum’s development.

Constructability Testing of Folded Plate Girders

A new steel girder bridge system was developed at the University of Nebraska. The innovative girder design is a box girder folded from a single steel plate that has a trapezoid shape with an opening on the bottom. The girder has application in short span bridges and accelerated construction situations. The structural performance of the girder requires investigation in all stages of a bridge’s lifecycle. This thesis contains descriptions and results from the first two tests from a series of tests developed to evaluate this new girder shape. The objective of these two tests was to investigate the constructability of the girders. During construction a bridge is in its least stable condition and it is important that the bridge components exhibit both adequate strength and stability during this critical stage. To this end, two girders were tested in flexure over a simple span as a non-composite beam simulating the loading the girders would be subjected to during construction. The results of the two tests indicate that the folded girder as a whole, and its components, provide adequate strength and stability at construction load levels. Failure occurred at loads that were above normal construction load levels and resulted in a ductile failure mode, which is a well documented benefit of steel components. The girders remained stable through all phases of loading including failure. The top flange was the weakest component of the beam during construction due to its role as a compression element that has a slender and un-braced form. The compression in the top flange caused local buckling in the top flange even at elastic load levels. This was the cause for loss of stiffness and failure in both specimens. Incorporation of a ridge at the center of the top flange of specimens, results of which are not reported in this thesis, proved to resolve this very early buckling issue.

Two-chamber Rocket Box Bat House Plans

Plans and instructions for building a “Two-chamber Rocket Box” bat-house to accommodate large numbers (>200) of bats. See further: http://www.batcon.org/educatorsK/pdfs/fof_bathouse.pdf

Human telomere disease due to disruption of the CCAAT box of the TERC promoter

Mutations in the coding region of telomerase complex genes can result in accelerated telomere attrition and human disease. Manifestations of telomere disease include the bone marrow failure syndromes dyskeratosis congenita and aplastic anemia, acute myeloid leukemia, liver cirrhosis, and pulmonary fibrosis. Here, we describe a mutation in the CCAAT box (GCAAT) of the TERC gene promoter in a family in which multiple members had typical features of telomeropathy. The genetic alteration in this critical regulatory sequence resulted in reduced reporter gene activity and absent binding of transcription factor NF-Y, likely responsible for reduced TERC levels, decreased telomerase activity, and short telomeres. This is the first description of a pathogenic mutation in the highly con-served CCAAT box and the first instance of a mutation in the promoter region of TERC producing a telomeropathy. We propose that current mutation-screening strategies should include gene promoter regions for the diagnosis of telomere diseases. This clinical trial was registered at www.clinicaltrials.gov as #NCT00071045. (Blood. 2012;119(13):3060-3063)

Molecular characterization of the Aspergillus nidulans fbxA encoding an F-box protein involved in xylanase induction

The filamentous fungus Aspergillus nidulans has been used as a fungal model system to study the regulation of xylanase production. These genes are activated at transcriptional level by the master regulator the transcriptional factor XInR and repressed by carbon catabolite repression (CCR) mediated by the wide-domain repressor CreA. Here, we screened a collection of 42 A. nidulans F-box deletion mutants grown either in xylose or xylan as the single carbon source in the presence of the glucose analog 2-deoxy-D-glucose, aiming to identify mutants that have deregulated xylanase induction. We were able to recognize a null mutant in a gene (fbxA) that has decreased xylanase activity and reduced xInA and xInD mRNA accumulation. The Delta fbxA mutant interacts genetically with creAd-30, creB15, and creC27 mutants. FbxA is a novel protein containing a functional F-box domain that binds to Skp1 from the SCF-type ligase. Blastp analysis suggested that FbxA is a protein exclusive from fungi, without any apparent homologs in higher eukaryotes. Our work emphasizes the importance of the ubiquitination in the A. nidulans xylanase induction and CCR. The identification of FbxA provides another layer of complexity to xylanase induction and CCR phenomena in filamentous fungi. (C) 2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Spray Congealing of Pharmaceuticals: Study on Production of Solid Dispersions Using Box-Behnken Design

This work aimed at evaluating the spray congealing method for the production of microparticles of carbamazepine combined with a polyoxylglyceride carrier. In addition, the influence of the spray congealing conditions on the improvement of drug solubility was investigated using a three-factor, three-level Box-Behnken design. The factors studied were the cooling air flow rate, atomizing pressure, and molten dispersion feed rate. Dependent variables were the yield, solubility, encapsulation efficiency, particle size, water activity, and flow properties. Statistical analysis showed that only the yield was affected by the factors studied. The characteristics of the microparticles were evaluated using X-ray powder diffraction, scanning electron microscopy, differential scanning calorimetry, and hot-stage microscopy. The results showed a spherical morphology and changes in the crystalline state of the drug. The microparticles were obtained with good yields and encapsulation efficiencies, which ranged from 50 to 80% and 99.5 to 112%, respectively. The average size of the microparticles ranged from 17.7 to 39.4 mu m, the water activities were always below 0.5, and flowability was good to moderate. Both the solubility and dissolution rate of carbamazepine from the spray congealed microparticles were remarkably improved. The carbamazepine solubility showed a threefold increase and dissolution profile showed a twofold increase after 60 min compared to the raw drug. The Box-Behnken fractional factorial design proved to be a powerful tool to identify the best conditions for the manufacture of solid dispersion microparticles by spray congealing.

Population structure and sexual maturity of the calico box crab Hepatus epheliticus Linnaeus (Brachyura, Hepatidae) from Yucatan Peninsula, Mexico

The calico box crab Hepatus epheliticus is an abundant species from shallow and continental shelf waters of the Atlantic coast of USA and Mexico. Information about population structure and sexual maturity is absent, even though this crab is caught to be used as bait for the octopus fishery in the Campeche Bank, Mexico. In order to achieve such information, a total of 768 individuals were collected from January to March 2010 through baited traps installed in the Yucatan Peninsula, Mexico. Our results showed that sex ratio is biased towards more males than females (1:0.55), contradicting to that reported in other brachyuran crabs. The absence of ovigerous females suggests that they did not enter into the traps during embryogenesis. Males reached a larger maximum size than females (64.0 +/- 6.15 and 58.4 +/- 5.60 mm carapace width, respectively). The general scheme of growth being positive allometric throughout ontogeny of both sexes. Males presented a transition phase from juveniles to adult corresponding to the puberty moult. The estimation of the onset of functional sexual maturity revealed a steady situation for the population, with 21.5 and 13.8% of males and females, respectively, morphologically immature at the time of catch. This study constitutes the first report on population structure and sexual maturity in a population of the calico box crab H. epheliticus.

Hepatocyte nuclear factors 1α/4α and forkhead box A2 regulate the solute carrier 2A2 (Slc2a2) gene expression in the liver and kidney of diabetic rats

AIMS: Solute carrier 2a2 (Slc2a2) gene codifies the glucose transporter GLUT2, a key protein for glucose flux in hepatocytes and renal epithelial cells of proximal tubule. In diabetes mellitus, hepatic and tubular glucose output has been related to Slc2a2/GLUT2 overexpression; and controlling the expression of this gene may be an important adjuvant way to improve glycemic homeostasis. Thus, the present study investigated transcriptional mechanisms involved in the diabetes-induced overexpression of the Slc2a2 gene. MAIN METHODS: Hepatocyte nuclear factors 1α and 4α (HNF-1α and HNF-4α), forkhead box A2 (FOXA2), sterol regulatory element binding protein-1c (SREBP-1c) and the CCAAT-enhancer-binding protein (C/EBPβ) mRNA expression (RT-PCR) and binding activity into the Slc2a2 promoter (electrophoretic mobility assay) were analyzed in the liver and kidney of diabetic and 6-day insulin-treated diabetic rats. KEY FINDINGS: Slc2a2/GLUT2 expression increased by more than 50% (P<0.001) in the liver and kidney of diabetic rats, and 6-day insulin treatment restores these values to those observed in non-diabetic animals. Similarly, the mRNA expression and the binding activity of HNF-1α, HNF-4α and FOXA2 increased by 50 to 100% (P<0.05 to P<0.001), also returning to values of non-diabetic rats after insulin treatment. Neither the Srebf1 and Cebpb mRNA expression, nor the SREBP-1c and C/EBP-β binding activity was altered in diabetic rats. SIGNIFICANCE: HNF-1α, HNF-4α and FOXA2 transcriptional factors are involved in diabetes-induced overexpression of Slc2a2 gene in the liver and kidney. These data point out that these transcriptional factors are important targets to control GLUT2 expression in these tissues, which can contribute to glycemic homeostasis in diabetes.