Formative evaluation to benchmark and improve climate-based decision support for graziers in Western Queelsland

Researchers developing climate-based forecasts, workshops, software tools and information to aid grazier decisions undertook an evaluation study to enhance planning and benchmark impact. One hundred graziers in Western Queensland were randomly selected from 7 shires and surveyed by mail and telephone (43 respondents) to explore levels of knowledge and use of climate information, practices and information needs. We found 36% of respondents apply the Southern Oscillation Index to property decisions but 92% were unaware El Niño Southern Oscillation’s predictive signal in the region is greater for pasture growth than rainfall, suggesting they may not recognise the potential of pasture growth forecasts. Almost 75% of graziers consider they are conservative or risk averse in their attitude to managing their enterprise. Mail respondents (n= 20) if given a 68%, on average, probability of exceeding median rainfall forecast may change a decision; almost two-thirds vary stocking rate based on forage available, last year’s pasture growth or the Southern Oscillation Index; the balance maintain a constant stocking rate strategy; 90% have access to a computer; 75% to the internet and 95% have a fax. This paper presents findings of the study and draws comparisons with a similar study of 174 irrigators in the Northern Murray-Darling Basin (Aust. J. Exp. Ag. 44, 247-257). New insights and information gained are helping the team better understand client needs and plan, design and extend tools and information tailored to grazier knowledge, practice, information needs and preferences. Results have also provided a benchmark against which to measure project impact and have influenced the team to make important changes to their project planning, activities and methods for transferring technology tailored to grazier preferences.

Inferential, non-parametric statistics to assess quality of probabilistic forecast systems

Many statistical forecast systems are available to interested users. In order to be useful for decision-making, these systems must be based on evidence of underlying mechanisms. Once causal connections between the mechanism and their statistical manifestation have been firmly established, the forecasts must also provide some quantitative evidence of `quality’. However, the quality of statistical climate forecast systems (forecast quality) is an ill-defined and frequently misunderstood property. Often, providers and users of such forecast systems are unclear about what ‘quality’ entails and how to measure it, leading to confusion and misinformation. Here we present a generic framework to quantify aspects of forecast quality using an inferential approach to calculate nominal significance levels (p-values) that can be obtained either by directly applying non-parametric statistical tests such as Kruskal-Wallis (KW) or Kolmogorov-Smirnov (KS) or by using Monte-Carlo methods (in the case of forecast skill scores). Once converted to p-values, these forecast quality measures provide a means to objectively evaluate and compare temporal and spatial patterns of forecast quality across datasets and forecast systems. Our analysis demonstrates the importance of providing p-values rather than adopting some arbitrarily chosen significance levels such as p < 0.05 or p < 0.01, which is still common practice. This is illustrated by applying non-parametric tests (such as KW and KS) and skill scoring methods (LEPS and RPSS) to the 5-phase Southern Oscillation Index classification system using historical rainfall data from Australia, The Republic of South Africa and India. The selection of quality measures is solely based on their common use and does not constitute endorsement. We found that non-parametric statistical tests can be adequate proxies for skill measures such as LEPS or RPSS. The framework can be implemented anywhere, regardless of dataset, forecast system or quality measure. Eventually such inferential evidence should be complimented by descriptive statistical methods in order to fully assist in operational risk management.

Structure and properties of two component hydrogels comprising lithocholic acid and organic amines

We demonstrate the aptitude of supramolecular hydrogel formation using simple bile acid such as lithocholic acid in aqueous solution in the presence of various dimeric or oligomeric amines. By variation of the choice of the amines in such mixtures the gelation properties could be modulated. However, the replacement of lithocholic acid (LCA) by cholic acid or deoxycholic acid resulted in no hydrogel formation. FT-IR studies confirm that the carboxylate and ammonium residues of the two components are involved in the salt (ion-pair) formation. This promotes further assembly of the components reinforced by a continuous hydrogen bonded network leading to gelation. Electron microscopy shows the morphology of the internal organization of gels of two component systems which also depends significantly on the amine part. Variation of the amine component from the simple 1,2-ethanediamine (EDA) to oligomeric amines in such gels of lithocholic acid changes the morphology of the assembly from long one-dimensional nanotubes to three-dimensional complex structures. Single crystal X-ray diffraction analysis with one of the amine-LCA complexes suggested the motif of fiber formation where the amines interact with the carboxylate and hydroxyl moieties through electrostatic forces and hydrogen bonding. From small angle neutron scattering study, it becomes clear that the weak gel from LCA-EDA shows scattering oscillation due to the presence of non-interacting nanotubules while for gels of LCA with oligomeric amines the individual fibers come together to form complex three-dimensional organizations of higher length scale. The rheological properties of this class of two component system provide clear evidence that the flow behavior can be modulated varying the acid-amine ratio.

Probabilistic forecasts of the onset of the north Australian wet season

The amount and timing of early wet-season rainfall are important for the management of many agricultural industries in north Australia. With this in mind, a wet-season onset date is defined based on the accumulation of rainfall to a predefined threshold, starting from 1 September, for each square of a 1° gridded analysis of daily rainfall across the region. Consistent with earlier studies, the interannual variability of the onset dates is shown to be well related to the immediately preceding July-August Southern Oscillation index (SOI). Based on this relationship, a forecast method using logistic regression is developed to predict the probability that onset will occur later than the climatological mean date. This method is expanded to also predict the probabilities that onset will be later than any of a range of threshold dates around the climatological mean. When assessed using cross-validated hindcasts, the skill of the predictions exceeds that of climatological forecasts in the majority of locations in north Australia, especially in the Top End region, Cape York, and central Queensland. At times of strong anomalies in the July-August SOI, the forecasts are reliably emphatic. Furthermore, predictions using tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures (SSTs) as the predictor are also tested. While short-lead (July-August predictor) forecasts are more skillful using the SOI, long-lead (May-June predictor) forecasts are more skillful using Pacific SSTs, indicative of the longer-term memory present in the ocean.

Human brain mechanisms of auditory and audiovisual selective attention

Selective attention refers to the process in which certain information is actively selected for conscious processing, while other information is ignored. The aim of the present studies was to investigate the human brain mechanisms of auditory and audiovisual selective attention with functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI), electroencephalography (EEG) and magnetoencephalography (MEG). The main focus was on attention-related processing in the auditory cortex. It was found that selective attention to sounds strongly enhances auditory cortex activity associated with processing the sounds. In addition, the amplitude of this attention-related modulation was shown to increase with the presentation rate of attended sounds. Attention to the pitch of sounds and to their location appeared to enhance activity in overlapping auditory-cortex regions. However, attention to location produced stronger activity than attention to pitch in the temporo-parietal junction and frontal cortical regions. In addition, a study on bimodal attentional selection found stronger audiovisual than auditory or visual attention-related modulations in the auditory cortex. These results were discussed in light of Näätänen s attentional-trace theory and other research concerning the brain mechanisms of selective attention.

Needs for applied climate education in agriculture

This paper reports on a purposive survey study which aimed to identify needs for the development, delivery and evaluation of applied climate education for targeted groups, to improve knowledge and skills to better manage under variable climatic conditions. The survey sample consisted of 80 producers and other industry stakeholders in Australia (including representatives from consulting, agricultural extension and agricultural education sectors), with a 58% response rate to the survey. The survey included an assessment of (i) knowledge levels of the Southern Oscillation Index and sea surface temperatures, and (ii) skill and ability in interpreting weather and climate parameters. Results showed that despite many of the respondents having more than 20 years experience in their industry, the only formal climate education or training undertaken by most was a 1-day workshop. Over 80% of the applied climate skills listed in the survey were regarded by respondents as essential or important, but only 42% of educators, 30% of consultants and 28% of producers rated themselves as competent in applying such skills. Essential skills were deemed as those that would enable respondents or their clients to be better prepared for the next extended wet or dry meteorological event, and improved capability in identifying and capitalising on key decision points from climate information and a seasonal climate outlook. The complex issue of forecast accuracy is a confounding obstacle for many in the application of climate information and forecasts in management. Addressing this problem by describing forecast 'limitations and skill' can help to overcome this problem. The survey also highlighted specific climatic tactical and strategic information collated from grazing, cropping and agribusiness enterprises, and showed the value of such information from a users perspective.

Self-Organization of n-Alkane Chains in Water: Length Dependent Crossover from Helix and Toroid to Molten Globule

We demonstrate a chain length dependent crossover in the structural properties of linear hydrocarbon (n-alkane) chains using detailed atomistic simulations in explicit water. We identify a number of exotic structures of the polymer chain through energy minimization of representative snapshots collected from molecular dynamics trajectory. While the collapsed state is ring-like (circular) for small chains (CnH2n+2; n <= 20) and spherical for very long ones (n = 100), we find the emergence of ordered helical structures at intermediate lengths (n similar to 40). We find different types of disordered helices and toroid-like structures at n = 60. We also report a sharp transition in the stability of the collapsed state as a function of the chain length through relevant free energy calculations. While the collapsed state is only marginally metastable for C20H42, a clear bistable free energy surface emerges only when the chain is about 30 monomers long. For n = 30, the polymer exhibits an intermittent oscillation between the collapsed and the coil structures, characteristic of two stable states separated by a small barrier.

Managing for rainfall variability: effect of grazing strategy on cattle production in a dry tropical savanna

Rainfall variability is a challenge to sustainable and pro. table cattle production in northern Australia. Strategies recommended to manage for rainfall variability, like light or variable stocking, are not widely adopted. This is due partly to the perception that sustainability and profitability are incompatible. A large, long-term grazing trial was initiated in 1997 in north Queensland, Australia, to test the effect of different grazing strategies on cattle production. These strategies are: (i) constant light stocking (LSR) at long-term carrying capacity (LTCC); (ii) constant heavy stocking (HSR) at twice LTCC; (iii) rotational wet-season spelling (R/Spell) at 1.5 LTCC; (iv) variable stocking (VAR), with stocking rates adjusted in May based on available pasture; and (v) a Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) variable strategy, with stocking rates adjusted in November, based on available pasture and SOI seasonal forecasts. Animal performance varied markedly over the 10 years for which data is presented, due to pronounced differences in rainfall and pasture availability. Nonetheless, lighter stocking at or about LTCC consistently gave the best individual liveweight gain (LWG), condition score and skeletal growth; mean LWG per annum was thus highest in the LSR (113 kg), intermediate in the R/Spell (104 kg) and lowest in the HSR(86 kg). MeanLWGwas 106 kg in the VAR and 103 kg in the SOI but, in all years, the relative performance of these strategies was dependent upon the stocking rate applied. After 2 years on the trial, steers from lightly stocked strategies were 60-100 kg heavier and received appreciable carcass price premiums at the meatworks compared to those under heavy stocking. In contrast, LWG per unit area was greatest at stocking rates of about twice LTCC; mean LWG/ha was thus greatest in the HSR (21 kg/ha), but this strategy required drought feeding in four of the 10 years and was unsustainable. Although LWG/ha was lower in the LSR (mean 14 kg/ha), or in strategies that reduced stocking rates in dry years like the VAR(mean 18 kg/ha) and SOI (mean 17 kg/ha), these strategies did not require drought feeding and appeared sustainable. The R/Spell strategy (mean 16 kg/ha) was compromised by an ill-timed fire, but also performed satisfactorily. The present results provide important evidence challenging the assumption that sustainable management in a variable environment is unprofitable. Further research is required to fully quantify the long-term effects of these strategies on land condition and profitability and to extrapolate the results to breeder performance at the property level.

Defining and predicting the 'break of the season' for north-east Queensland grazing areas

For pasture growth in the semi-arid tropics of north-east Australia, where up to 80% of annual rainfall occurs between December and March, the timing and distribution of rainfall events is often more important than the total amount. In particular, the timing of the 'green break of the season' (GBOS) at the end of the dry season, when new pasture growth becomes available as forage and a live-weight gain is measured in cattle, affects several important management decisions that prevent overgrazing and pasture degradation. Currently, beef producers in the region use a GBOS rule based on rainfall (e. g. 40mm of rain over three days by 1 December) to define the event and make their management decisions. A survey of 16 beef producers in north-east Queensland shows three quarters of respondents use a rainfall amount that occurs in only half or less than half of all years at their location. In addition, only half the producers expect the GBOS to occur within two weeks of the median date calculated by the CSIRO plant growth days model GRIM. This result suggests that in the producer rules, either the rainfall quantity or the period of time over which the rain is expected, is unrealistic. Despite only 37% of beef producers indicating that they use a southern oscillation index (SOI) forecast in their decisions, cross validated LEPS (linear error in probability space) analyses showed both the average 3 month July-September SOI and the 2 month August-September SOI have significant forecast skill in predicting the probability of both the amount of wet season rainfall and the timing of the GBOS. The communication and implementation of a rigorous and realistic definition of the GBOS, and the likely impacts of anthropogenic climate change on the region are discussed in the context of the sustainable management of northern Australian rangelands.

Tools to manage climate risk in cropping (Australia).

Because of the variable and changing environment, advisors and farmers are seeking systems that provide risk management support at a number of time scales. The Agricultural Production Systems Research Unit, Toowoomba, Australia has developed a suite of tools to assist advisors and farmers to better manage risk in cropping. These tools range from simple rainfall analysis tools (Rainman, HowWet, HowOften) through crop simulation tools (WhopperCropper and YieldProphet) to the most complex, APSFarm, a whole-farm analysis tool. Most are derivatives of the APSIM crop model. These tools encompass a range of complexity and potential benefit to both the farming community and for government policy. This paper describes, the development and usage of two specific products; WhopperCropper and APSFarm. WhopperCropper facilitates simulation-aided discussion of growers' exposure to risk when comparing alternative crop input options. The user can readily generate 'what-if' scenarios that separate the major influences whilst holding other factors constant. Interactions of the major inputs can also be tested. A manager can examine the effects of input levels (and Southern Oscillation Index phase) to broadly determine input levels that match their attitude to risk. APSFarm has been used to demonstrate that management changes can have different effects in short and long time periods. It can be used to test local advisors and farmers' knowledge and experience of their desired rotation system. This study has shown that crop type has a larger influence than more conservative minimum soil water triggers in the long term. However, in short term dry periods, minimum soil water triggers and maximum area of the various crops can give significant financial gains.

Effect of position on precision within the recording field of a markerless motion capture system

Introduction Markerless motion capture systems are relatively new devices that can significantly speed up capturing full body motion. A precision of the assessment of the finger’s position with this type of equipment was evaluated at 17.30 ± 9.56 mm when compare to an active marker system [1]. The Microsoft Kinect was proposed to standardized and enhanced clinical evaluation of patients with hemiplegic cerebral palsy [2]. Markerless motion capture systems have the potential to be used in a clinical setting for movement analysis, as well as for large cohort research. However, the precision of such system needs to be characterized. Global objectives • To assess the precision within the recording field of the markerless motion capture system Openstage 2 (Organic Motion, NY). • To compare the markerless motion capture system with an optoelectric motion capture system with active markers. Specific objectives • To assess the noise of a static body at 13 different location within the recording field of the markerless motion capture system. • To assess the smallest oscillation detected by the markerless motion capture system. • To assess the difference between both systems regarding the body joint angle measurement. Methods Equipment • OpenStage® 2 (Organic Motion, NY) o Markerless motion capture system o 16 video cameras (acquisition rate : 60Hz) o Recording zone : 4m * 5m * 2.4m (depth * width * height) o Provide position and angle of 23 different body segments • VisualeyezTM VZ4000 (PhoeniX Technologies Incorporated, BC) o Optoelectric motion capture system with active markers o 4 trackers system (total of 12 cameras) o Accuracy : 0.5~0.7mm Protocol & Analysis • Static noise: o Motion recording of an humanoid mannequin was done in 13 different locations o RMSE was calculated for each segment in each location • Smallest oscillation detected: o Small oscillations were induced to the humanoid mannequin and motion was recorded until it stopped. o Correlation between the displacement of the head recorded by both systems was measured. A corresponding magnitude was also measured. • Body joints angle: o Body motion was recorded simultaneously with both systems (left side only). o 6 participants (3 females; 32.7 ± 9.4 years old) • Tasks: Walk, Squat, Shoulder flexion & abduction, Elbow flexion, Wrist extension, Pronation / supination (not in results), Head flexion & rotation (not in results), Leg rotation (not in results), Trunk rotation (not in results) o Several body joint angles were measured with both systems. o RMSE was calculated between signals of both systems. Results Conclusion Results show that the Organic Motion markerless system has the potential to be used for assessment of clinical motor symptoms or motor performances However, the following points should be considered: • Precision of the Openstage system varied within the recording field. • Precision is not constant between limb segments. • The error seems to be higher close to the range of motion extremities.

Flow over a cylinder with a hinged-splitter plate

Previous work on rigid splitter plates in the wake of a bluff body has shown that the primary vortex shedding can be suppressed for sufficiently long splitter plates. In the present work, we study the problem of a hinged-splitter plate in the wake of a circular cylinder. The splitter plate can rotate about the hinge at the base of the cylinder due to the unsteady fluid forces acting on it, and hence the communication between the two sides of the wake is not totally disrupted as in the rigid splitter plate case. In our study, we investigate this problem in the limit where the stiffness and internal damping associated with the hinge are negligible, and the mass ratio of the splitter plate is small. The experiments show that the splitter plate oscillations increase with Reynolds numbers at low values of Re, and are found to reach a saturation amplitude level at higher Re, Re>4000. This type of saturation amplitude level that appears to continue indefinitely with Re, appears to be related to the fact that there is no structural restoring force, and has been observed previously for transversely oscillating cylinders with no restorin force. In the present case, the saturation tip amplitude level can be tip to 0.45D, where D is the cylinder diameter. For this hinged-rigid splitter plate case, it is found that the splitter plate length to cylinder diameter ratio (L/D) is crucial in determining the character and magnitude of the oscillations. For small splitter plate length (L/D <= 3.0), the oscillations appear to be nearly periodic with tip amplitudes of about 0.45D nearly independent of L/D. The nondiinensional oscillation frequencies (fD/U) on the other hand are found to continuously vary with L/D from fD/U approximate to 0.2 at L/D = 1 to fD/U approximate to 0.1 at L/D = 3. As the splitter plate length is further increased beyond L/D >= 4.0, the character of the splitter plate oscillations suddenly changes. The oscillations become aperiodic with much smaller amplitudes. In this long splitter plate regime, the spectra of the oscillations become broadband, and are reminiscent of the change in character of the wake oscillations seen in the earlier fixed-rigid splitter plate case for L/D >= 5.0. In the present case of the hinged-splitter plate, the sudden transition seen as the splitter plate length (L/D) is increased from 3 to 4 may be attributed to the fact that the wake vortices are no longer able to synchronize with the plate motions for larger splitter plate lengths. Hence, as observed in other vortex-induced vibration problems, the oscillations becomeaperiodic and the amplitude reduces dramatically.

Sol → gel transition with rings in a finite polycondensing system in solution

We report a theoretical formulation for the mean cluster size distribution in a finite polycondensing system. Expressions for the mean number of n-mers with j bonds ( nj) are developed. Numerical calculations show that while the non-cyclic molecules make the dominant contribution to the small clusters, the large clusters are dominated by cyclic structures. The number of particles in ringless chains, n n,n-1, decays monotonically with n at all extents of reaction, but n n becomes bimodal near the gel point. We also find that the solvent plays an important role in the cluster size distribution.

Impact of Energy Quantization on the Performance of Current-Biased SET Circuits

The current-biased single electron transistor (SET) (CBS) is an integral part of almost all hybrid CMOS SET circuits. In this paper, for the first time, the effects of energy quantization on the performance of CBS-based circuits are studied through analytical modeling and Monte Carlo simulations. It is demonstrated that energy quantization has no impact on the gain of the CBS characteristics, although it changes the output voltage levels and oscillation periodicity. The effects of energy quantization are further studied for two circuits: negative differential resistance (NDR) and neuron cell, which use the CBS. A new model for the conductance of NDR characteristics is also formulated that includes the energy quantization term.

Stanniocalcin-1 in cell stress and differentiation

Stanniocalcin-1 (STC-1) is a 56 kD homodimeric protein which was originally identified in bony fish, where it regulates calcium/phosphate homeostasis and protects against toxic hypercalcemia. STC-1 was considered unique to fish until the cloning of cDNA for human STC-1 in 1995 and mouse Stc-1 in 1996. STC-1 is conserved through evolution with human and salmon STC-1 sharing 60% identity and 80% similarity. The surprisingly high homology between mammalian and fish STC-1 and the protective actions of STC-1 in terminally differentiated neurons, originally reported by my colleagues, prompted me to further study the role of STC-1 in cell stress and differentiation. One purpose was to determine whether there is an inter-relationship between terminally differentiated cells and STC-1 expression. The study revealed an accumulation of STC-1 in mature megakaryocytes and adipocytes, i.e. postmitotic cells with limited or lost proliferative capacity. Still proliferating uninduced cells were negative for STC-1 mRNA and protein, whereas differentiating cells accumulated STC-1 in their cytoplasm. Interestingly, in liposarcomas the grade inversely correlated with STC-1 expression. Another aim was to study how STC-1 gene expression is regulated. Given that IL-6 is a cytokine with neuroprotective actions, by unknown mechanisms, we examined whether IL-6 regulates STC-1 gene expression. Treatment of human neural Paju cells with IL-6 induced a dose-dependent upregulation of STC-1 mRNA levels. This induction of STC-1 expression by IL-6 occurred mainly through the MAPK signaling pathway. Furthermore, I studied the role of IL-6-mediated STC-1 expression as a mechanism of cytoprotection conferred by hypoxic preconditioning (HOPC) in brain and heart. My findings show that Stc-1 was upregulated in brain after hypoxia treatment. In the brain of IL-6 deficient mice, however, no upregulation of Stc-1 expression was evident. After induced brain injury the STC-1 response in brains of IL-6 transgenic mice, with IL-6 overexpression in astroglial cells, was stronger than in brains of WT mice. These results indicate that IL-6-mediated expression of STC-1 is one molecular mechanism of HOPC-induced tolerance to brain ischemia. The protection conferred by HOPC in heart occurs during a bimodal time course comprising early and delayed preconditioning. Interestingly, my results showed that the expression of Stc-1 in heart was upregulated in a biphasic manner during HOPC. IL-6 deficient mice did not, however, show a similar biphasic manner of Stc-1 upregulation as did WT mice. Instead, only an early upregulation of Stc-1 expression was evident. The results suggest that the upregulation of Stc-1 during the delayed preconditioning is IL-6-dependent. The upregulated expression of Stc-1 during the early preconditioning, however, is only partly IL-6-dependent and possibly also directly mediated by HIF-1. These findings suggest that STC-1 is a pro-survival protein for terminally differentiated cells and that STC-1 expression may in fact be regulated by stress. In addition, I show that STC-1 gene upregulation, mediated in part by IL-6, is a new mechanism of protection conferred by HOPC in brain and heart. Because of its importance for fundamental biological processes, such as differentiation and cytoprotection, STC-1 may have therapeutic implications for management of stroke, neurodegenerative diseases, cancer, and obesity.