Multivariate ARIMA Compositional Time Series Analysis

A compositional time series is obtained when a compositional data vector is observed atdifferent points in time. Inherently, then, a compositional time series is a multivariatetime series with important constraints on the variables observed at any instance in time.Although this type of data frequently occurs in situations of real practical interest, atrawl through the statistical literature reveals that research in the field is very much in itsinfancy and that many theoretical and empirical issues still remain to be addressed. Anyappropriate statistical methodology for the analysis of compositional time series musttake into account the constraints which are not allowed for by the usual statisticaltechniques available for analysing multivariate time series. One general approach toanalyzing compositional time series consists in the application of an initial transform tobreak the positive and unit sum constraints, followed by the analysis of the transformedtime series using multivariate ARIMA models. In this paper we discuss the use of theadditive log-ratio, centred log-ratio and isometric log-ratio transforms. We also presentresults from an empirical study designed to explore how the selection of the initialtransform affects subsequent multivariate ARIMA modelling as well as the quality ofthe forecasts

Studies about the atomic capabilities concept for linear control systems in physical multi-agent environments

This paper shows the impact of the atomic capabilities concept to include control-oriented knowledge of linear control systems in the decisions making structure of physical agents. These agents operate in a real environment managing physical objects (e.g. their physical bodies) in coordinated tasks. This approach is presented using an introspective reasoning approach and control theory based on the specific tasks of passing a ball and executing the offside manoeuvre between physical agents in the robotic soccer testbed. Experimental results and conclusions are presented, emphasising the advantages of our approach that improve the multi-agent performance in cooperative systems

Necessary and sufficient conditions for robust stability using modal intervals

In this paper, robustness of parametric systems is analyzed using a new approach to interval mathematics called Modal Interval Analysis. Modal Intervals are an interval extension that, instead of classic intervals, recovers some of the properties required by a numerical system. Modal Interval Analysis not only simplifies the computation of interval functions but allows semantic interpretation of their results. Necessary, sufficient and, in some cases, necessary and sufficient conditions for robust performance are presented

Predictive motion control of a mirosot mobile robot

This paper discusses predictive motion control of a MiRoSoT robot. The dynamic model of the robot is deduced by taking into account the whole process - robot, vision, control and transmission systems. Based on the obtained dynamic model, an integrated predictive control algorithm is proposed to position precisely with either stationary or moving obstacle avoidance. This objective is achieved automatically by introducing distant constraints into the open-loop optimization of control inputs. Simulation results demonstrate the feasibility of such control strategy for the deduced dynamic model

Compositional analysis of bivariate discrete probabilities

A joint distribution of two discrete random variables with finite support can be displayed as a two way table of probabilities adding to one. Assume that this table hasn rows and m columns and all probabilities are non-null. This kind of table can beseen as an element in the simplex of n · m parts. In this context, the marginals areidentified as compositional amalgams, conditionals (rows or columns) as subcompositions. Also, simplicial perturbation appears as Bayes theorem. However, the Euclideanelements of the Aitchison geometry of the simplex can also be translated into the tableof probabilities: subspaces, orthogonal projections, distances.Two important questions are addressed: a) given a table of probabilities, which isthe nearest independent table to the initial one? b) which is the largest orthogonalprojection of a row onto a column? or, equivalently, which is the information in arow explained by a column, thus explaining the interaction? To answer these questionsthree orthogonal decompositions are presented: (1) by columns and a row-wise geometric marginal, (2) by rows and a columnwise geometric marginal, (3) by independenttwo-way tables and fully dependent tables representing row-column interaction. Animportant result is that the nearest independent table is the product of the two (rowand column)-wise geometric marginal tables. A corollary is that, in an independenttable, the geometric marginals conform with the traditional (arithmetic) marginals.These decompositions can be compared with standard log-linear models.Key words: balance, compositional data, simplex, Aitchison geometry, composition,orthonormal basis, arithmetic and geometric marginals, amalgam, dependence measure,contingency table

La competència «El treball col·laboratiu» : una oportunitat per a incorporar les TIC en la didàctica universitària. Descripció de l'experiència amb la plataforma ACME (UdG)

L'article és una reflexió sobre els requisits de formació dels professionals que demana la societat del coneixement. Un dels objectius més importants que ha de tenir la universitat en la societat del coneixement és la formació de professionals competents que tinguin prou eines intel·lectuals per a enfrontar-se a la incertesa de la informació, a la consciència que aquesta té una data de caducitat a curt termini i a l'ansietat que això provoca. Però, a més, també han de ser capaços de definir i crear les eines de treball amb què donaran sentit i eficàcia a aquest coneixement mudable i mutant. Per això, l'espai europeu d'ensenyament superior prioritza la competència transversal del treball col·laboratiu amb l'objectiu de promoure un aprenentatge autònom, compromès i adaptat a les noves necessitats de l'empresa del segle xxi. En aquest context, es presenta l'entorn teòric que fonamenta el treball desenvolupat a la plataforma informàtica ACME, que uneix el treball col·laboratiu i l'aprenentatge semipresencial o blended learning. Així mateix, es descriuen amb detall alguns exemples de wikis, paradigma del treball col·laboratiu, fets en assignatures impartides per la Universitat de Girona en l'espai virtual ACME

Compositional data and Simpson's paradox

Simpson's paradox, also known as amalgamation or aggregation paradox, appears whendealing with proportions. Proportions are by construction parts of a whole, which canbe interpreted as compositions assuming they only carry relative information. TheAitchison inner product space structure of the simplex, the sample space of compositions, explains the appearance of the paradox, given that amalgamation is a nonlinearoperation within that structure. Here we propose to use balances, which are specificelements of this structure, to analyse situations where the paradox might appear. Withthe proposed approach we obtain that the centre of the tables analysed is a naturalway to compare them, which avoids by construction the possibility of a paradox.Key words: Aitchison geometry, geometric mean, orthogonal projection

Intrinsic test of independence in contingency tables

A condition needed for testing nested hypotheses from a Bayesianviewpoint is that the prior for the alternative model concentratesmass around the small, or null, model. For testing independencein contingency tables, the intrinsic priors satisfy this requirement.Further, the degree of concentration of the priors is controlled bya discrete parameter m, the training sample size, which plays animportant role in the resulting answer regardless of the samplesize.In this paper we study robustness of the tests of independencein contingency tables with respect to the intrinsic priors withdifferent degree of concentration around the null, and comparewith other “robust” results by Good and Crook. Consistency ofthe intrinsic Bayesian tests is established.We also discuss conditioning issues and sampling schemes,and argue that conditioning should be on either one margin orthe table total, but not on both margins.Examples using real are simulated data are given

A teaching/learning support tool for introductory programming courses

In This work we present a Web-based tool developed with the aim of reinforcing teaching and learning of introductory programming courses. This tool provides support for teaching and learning. From the teacher's perspective the system introduces important gains with respect to the classical teaching methodology. It reinforces lecture and laboratory sessions, makes it possible to give personalized attention to the student, assesses the degree of participation of the students and most importantly, performs a continuous assessment of the student's progress. From the student's perspective it provides a learning framework, consisting in a help environment and a correction environment, which facilitates their personal work. With this tool students are more motivated to do programming

An automatic correction tool for relational database schemas

A Web-based tool developed to automatically correct relational database schemas is presented. This tool has been integrated into a more general e-learning platform and is used to reinforce teaching and learning on database courses. This platform assigns to each student a set of database problems selected from a common repository. The student has to design a relational database schema and enter it into the system through a user friendly interface specifically designed for it. The correction tool corrects the design and shows detected errors. The student has the chance to correct them and send a new solution. These steps can be repeated as many times as required until a correct solution is obtained. Currently, this system is being used in different introductory database courses at the University of Girona with very promising results

Compositional Time Series: An Application

The composition of the labour force is an important economic factor for a country.Often the changes in proportions of different groups are of interest.I this paper we study a monthly compositional time series from the Swedish LabourForce Survey from 1994 to 2005. Three models are studied: the ILR-transformed series,the ILR-transformation of the compositional differenced series of order 1, and the ILRtransformationof the compositional differenced series of order 12. For each of thethree models a VAR-model is fitted based on the data 1994-2003. We predict the timeseries 15 steps ahead and calculate 95 % prediction regions. The predictions of thethree models are compared with actual values using MAD and MSE and the predictionregions are compared graphically in a ternary time series plot.We conclude that the first, and simplest, model possesses the best predictive power ofthe three models

Compositional evolution with mass transfer in closed systems

Evolution of compositions in time, space, temperature or other covariates is frequentin practice. For instance, the radioactive decomposition of a sample changes its composition with time. Some of the involved isotopes decompose into other isotopes of thesample, thus producing a transfer of mass from some components to other ones, butpreserving the total mass present in the system. This evolution is traditionally modelledas a system of ordinary di erential equations of the mass of each component. However,this kind of evolution can be decomposed into a compositional change, expressed interms of simplicial derivatives, and a mass evolution (constant in this example). A rst result is that the simplicial system of di erential equations is non-linear, despiteof some subcompositions behaving linearly.The goal is to study the characteristics of such simplicial systems of di erential equa-tions such as linearity and stability. This is performed extracting the compositional differential equations from the mass equations. Then, simplicial derivatives are expressedin coordinates of the simplex, thus reducing the problem to the standard theory ofsystems of di erential equations, including stability. The characterisation of stabilityof these non-linear systems relays on the linearisation of the system of di erential equations at the stationary point, if any. The eigenvelues of the linearised matrix and theassociated behaviour of the orbits are the main tools. For a three component system,these orbits can be plotted both in coordinates of the simplex or in a ternary diagram.A characterisation of processes with transfer of mass in closed systems in terms of stability is thus concluded. Two examples are presented for illustration, one of them is aradioactive decay

A Log-linear model of grain size influence on the geochemistry of sediments

Sediment composition is mainly controlled by the nature of the source rock(s), and chemical (weathering) and physical processes (mechanical crushing, abrasion, hydrodynamic sorting) during alteration and transport. Although the factors controlling these processes are conceptually well understood, detailed quantification of compositional changes induced by a single process are rare, as are examples where the effects of several processes can be distinguished. The present study was designed to characterize the role of mechanical crushing and sorting in the absence of chemical weathering. Twenty sediment samples were taken from Alpine glaciers that erode almost pure granitoid lithologies. For each sample, 11 grain-size fractions from granules to clay (ø grades &-1 to &9) were separated, and each fraction was analysed for its chemical composition.The presence of clear steps in the box-plots of all parts (in adequate ilr and clr scales) against ø is assumed to be explained by typical crystal size ranges for the relevant mineral phases. These scatter plots and the biplot suggest a splitting of the full grain size range into three groups: coarser than ø=4 (comparatively rich in SiO2, Na2O, K2O, Al2O3, and dominated by “felsic” minerals like quartz and feldspar), finer than ø=8 (comparatively rich in TiO2, MnO, MgO, Fe2O3, mostly related to “mafic” sheet silicates like biotite and chlorite), and intermediate grains sizes (4≤ø &8; comparatively rich in P2O5 and CaO, related to apatite, some feldspar).To further test the absence of chemical weathering, the observed compositions were regressed against three explanatory variables: a trend on grain size in ø scale, a step function for ø≥4, and another for ø≥8. The original hypothesis was that the trend could be identified with weathering effects, whereas each step function would highlight those minerals with biggest characteristic size at its lower end. Results suggest that this assumption is reasonable for the step function, but that besides weathering some other factors (different mechanical behavior of minerals) have also an important contribution to the trend.Key words: sediment, geochemistry, grain size, regression, step function

Implícits filosòfics del convencionalisme en la geometria espaciotemporal

Treball que té com a objectiu, en primer lloc, establir quina possibilitat té el convencionalisme de ser una alternativa a les concepcions realistes de la geometria relativista; en segon lloc, assenyalar les implicacions epistemològiques que en deriven; en tercer lloc, precisar quin tipus de lectura de la hipòtesi inicial hem de fer donat que hi ha un cert marge per a l’ambigüitat i això ha permès diverses propostes; i en quart i darrer lloc, en cas que hom accepti les restriccions que el convencionalisme imposa al nostre coneixement, hem de veure quines conclusions podem extreure en l’àmbit ontològic i fins a quin punt són significatives per a la discussió sobre la relació entre matemàtica i naturalesa

Student's watcher : comparison between ASP.NET and PHP+CSS

"Student’s Watcher” is a small Web application which wants to show in a visual, simple and fast way, the evolution of the students. The main project table displays such things as marks and comments about students. We can add a comment for each mark to explain why this mark. The objective is to be able to know if some student has a problem, how is going his year, marks in other courses, or even, to know if he has a bad week in a different subjects. We can see the evolution of students in past years to do an objective comparison. It also allows inserting global comments of student, we have a list of these, and all professors can add new ones, where we can see more general valuations. “Student’s Watcher” was begun in ASP.net, but finally my project would be developed in PHP, HTML and CSS. This project wants to be a comparison between two of most important languages used nowadays, ASPX and PHP