Estimating Annual CO2 Flux for Lutjewad Station Using Three Different Gap-Filling Techniques

Long-term measurements of CO2 flux can be obtained using the eddy covariance technique, but these datasets are affected by gaps which hinder the estimation of robust long-term means and annual ecosystem exchanges. We compare results obtained using three gap-fill techniques: multiple regression (MR), multiple imputation (MI), and artificial neural networks (ANNs), applied to a one-year dataset of hourly CO2 flux measurements collected in Lutjewad, over a flat agriculture area near the Wadden Sea dike in the north of the Netherlands. The dataset was separated in two subsets: a learning and a validation set. The performances of gap-filling techniques were analysed by calculating statistical criteria: coefficient of determination (R2), root mean square error (RMSE), mean absolute error (MAE), maximum absolute error (MaxAE), and mean square bias (MSB). The gap-fill accuracy is seasonally dependent, with better results in cold seasons. The highest accuracy is obtained using ANN technique which is also less sensitive to environmental/seasonal conditions. We argue that filling gaps directly on measured CO2 fluxes is more advantageous than the common method of filling gaps on calculated net ecosystem change, because ANN is an empirical method and smaller scatter is expected when gap filling is applied directly to measurements.

Poverty, Educational Attainment and Health Among America’s Children: Current and Future Effects of Population Diversification and Associated Socioeconomic Change

A complex of interrelated factors including minority status, poverty, education, health status, and other factors determine the general welfare of children in America, particularly in heavily diverse states such as Texas. Although racial/ethnic status is clearly only a concomitant factor in that determination it is a factor for which future projections are available and for which the relationships with the other factors in the complex can be assessed. After examining the nature of the interrelationships between these factors we utilize direct standardization techniques to examine how the future diversification of the United States and Texas will affect the number of children in poverty, the educational status of the householders in households in which children in poverty live and the health status of children in 2040 assuming that the current relationships between minority status and these socioeconomic factors continue into the future. In the results of the analyses, data are compared with the total population of the United States and Texas in 2040 assumed in the first simulation scenario, to have the race/ethnicity characteristics of 2008 and in the second those projected for 2040 by the U.S. Census Bureau for the nation and by the Texas State Data Center for Texas in 2040. The results show that the diversification of the population could increase the number of children in poverty in the United States by nearly 1.8 million more than would occur with the lower levels of diversification evident in 2008. In addition, poverty would become increasingly concentrated among minority children with minority children accounting for 76.2 percent of all children in poverty by 2040 and with Hispanic children accounting for nearly half of the children in poverty by 2040. Results for educational attainment show an increasing concentration of minority children in households with householders with very low levels of education such that by 2040, 85.2 percent of the increase in the number of children in poverty would be in households with a householder with less than a high school level of education. Finally, the results related to several health status factors show that children in poverty will have a higher prevalence of nearly all health conditions. For example, the number of children with untreated dental conditions could increase to more than 4 million in the United States and to nearly 500,000 in Texas. The results clearly show that improving the welfare of children in America will require concerted efforts to change the poverty, educational, and health status characteristics associated with minority status and particularly Hispanic status. Failing to do so will lead to a future in which America’s children are increasingly impoverished, more poorly educated, and less healthy and which, as a result, is an America with a more tentative future.

Local Rates of Ice-Sheet Thickness Change in Greenland

The rate of ice-sheet thickness change is calculated for 10 sites in Greenland by comparing measured values of ice vertical velocity and snow-accumulation rate. Vertical velocities are derived from repeat surveys of markers using precision global positioning system techniques, and accumulation rates are determined from stratigraphic analysis of firn cores. The results apply to time-scales covered by the firn-core records, which in most cases are a few decades. A spectrum of thickness-change rates is obtained, ranging from substantial thinning to slow thickening. The sites where ice-sheet thinning is indicated are located near the ice-sheet margin or in outlet glacier catchments. Interior and high-elevation sites are predominantly in balance or thickening slowly. Uncertainties in the rates of thickness change are dominated by errors in the determination of accumulation rates. The results of this work are broadly comparable with regional estimates of mass balance obtained from the analysis of catchment input vs discharge.

The effect of seasonal temperature variation on behaviour and metabolism in the freshwater mussel (Unio tumidus)

Temperature plays a critical role in determining the biology of ectotherms. Many animals have evolved mechanisms that allow them to compensate biological rates, i.e. adjust biological rates to overcome thermodynamic effects. For low energy-organisms, such as bivalves, the costs of thermal compensation may be greater than the benefits, and thus prohibitive. To examine this, two experiments were designed to explore thermal compensation in Unio tumidus. Experiment 1 examined seasonal changes in behaviour in U. tumidus throughout a year. Temperature had a clear effect on burrowing rate with no evidence of compensation. Valve closure duration and frequency were also strongly affected by seasonal temperature change, but there was slight evidence of partial compensation. Experiment 2 examined oxygen consumption during burrowing, immediately following valve opening and at rest in summer (24 °C), autumn (14 °C), winter (4 °C), and spring (14 °C) acclimatized U. tumidus. Again, there was little evidence of burrowing rate compensation, but some evidence of partial compensation of valve closure duration and frequency. None of the oxygen compensation rates showed any evidence of thermal compensation. Thus, in general, there was only very limited evidence of thermal compensation of behaviour and no evidence of thermal compensation of oxygen compensation rates. Based upon this evidence, we argue that there is no evolutionary pressure for these bivalves to compensate these biological rates. Any pressure may be to maintain or even lower oxygen consumption as their only defence against predation is to close their valves and wait. An increase in oxygen consumption will be detrimental in this regard so the cost of thermal compensation may outweigh the benefits.

Establishing the skill of climate field reconstruction techniques for precipitation with pseudoproxy experiments

This study aims at assessing the skill of several climate field reconstruction techniques (CFR) to reconstruct past precipitation over continental Europe and the Mediterranean at seasonal time scales over the last two millennia from proxy records. A number of pseudoproxy experiments are performed within the virtual reality ofa regional paleoclimate simulation at 45 km resolution to analyse different aspects of reconstruction skill. Canonical Correlation Analysis (CCA), two versions of an Analog Method (AM) and Bayesian hierarchical modeling (BHM) are applied to reconstruct precipitation from a synthetic network of pseudoproxies that are contaminated with various types of noise. The skill of the derived reconstructions is assessed through comparison with precipitation simulated by the regional climate model. Unlike BHM, CCA systematically underestimates the variance. The AM can be adjusted to overcome this shortcoming, presenting an intermediate behaviour between the two aforementioned techniques. However, a trade-off between reconstruction-target correlations and reconstructed variance is the drawback of all CFR techniques. CCA (BHM) presents the largest (lowest) skill in preserving the temporal evolution, whereas the AM can be tuned to reproduce better correlation at the expense of losing variance. While BHM has been shown to perform well for temperatures, it relies heavily on prescribed spatial correlation lengths. While this assumption is valid for temperature, it is hardly warranted for precipitation. In general, none of the methods outperforms the other. All experiments agree that a dense and regularly distributed proxy network is required to reconstruct precipitation accurately, reflecting its high spatial and temporal variability. This is especially true in summer, when a specifically short de-correlation distance from the proxy location is caused by localised summertime convective precipitation events.

The behaviour of incompatible elements during hydrous melting of metasomatized peridotite at 4–6 GPa and 1000 °C–1200 °C

Trace element behavior during hydrous melting of a metasomatized garnet–peridotite was examined at pressures of 4–6 GPa and temperatures of 1000 °C–1200 °C, conditions appropriate for fluid penetrating the mantle wedge atop the subducting slab. Experiments were performed in a rocking multi-anvil apparatus using a diamond-trap setup. The compositions of the fluid and melt phases were measured using the cryogenic LA-ICP-MS technique. The water-saturated solidus of the K-lherzolite composition is located between 900 °C and 1000 °C at 4 GPa and between 1000 °C and 1100 °C at 5 and 6 GPa. The partition coefficients between fluid or melt and clinopyroxene reveal an asymmetric MREE trough with a minimum at Dy. The clinopyroxene in equilibrium with aqueous fluids is characterized by DUfluid–cpx > DThfluid–cpx while DUmelt–cpx tends to be similar to DThmelt–cpx. The partition coefficients between fluid or melt and garnet reveal very strong light to heavy REE fractionation, DLa/DLu from 95 (hydrous melt) to 1600 (aqueous fluid). The LILE are highly incompatible with partition coefficients > 50. The behavior of HFSE are decoupled, with DZr,Hf close to 1 while DNb,Ta > 10. Garnet is characterized by DUmelt/fluid–garnet < DThmelt/fluid–garnet. A comparison of our experimental partitioning results for trivalent cations as well as the results from the literature and the calculations carried out using the lattice strain model adapted to the presence of water in the bulk system indicates that H2O in the fluid or melt phase has a prominent effect on trace element partitioning. Garnet in mantle rocks in equilibrium with an aqueous fluid is characterized by significantly higher Do(3 +) for REE in the X site of the garnet compared with the partitioning values of the optimal cation in garnet in equilibrium with hydrous melts. Our data show for the first time that the change in the nature of the mobile phase (fluid vs. melt) does affect the affinities of trace elements into the garnet crystal at conditions below the second critical endpoint of the system. The same also applies for clinopyroxene, although this is less clear. Consequently, our new data allow for refinements in predictive modeling of element transfer from the slab to the mantle wedge and of possible compositions of metasomatized mantle that sources OIB magmatism.

Pre-Election Positions and Voting Behaviour in Parliament: Consistency among Swiss MPs

This article examines the determinants of positional incongruence between pre-election statements and post-election behaviour in the Swiss parliament between 2003 and 2009. The question is examined at the individual MP level, which is appropriate for dispersion-of-powers systems like Switzerland. While the overall rate of political congruence reaches about 85%, a multilevel logit analysis detects the underlying factors which push or curb a candidate's propensity to change his or her mind once elected. The results show that positional changes are more likely when (1) MPs are freshmen, (2) individual voting behaviour is invisible to the public, (3) the electoral district magnitude is not small, (4) the vote is not about a party's core issue, (5) the MP belongs to a party which is located in the political centre, and (6) if the pre-election statement dissents from the majority position of the legislative party group. Of these factors, the last one is paramount.

Crowdsourcing language change with smartphone applications

Crowdsourcing linguistic phenomena with smartphone applications is relatively new. In linguistics, apps have predominantly been developed to create pronunciation dictionaries, to train acoustic models, and to archive endangered languages. This paper presents the first account of how apps can be used to collect data suitable for documenting language change: we created an app, Dialäkt Äpp (DÄ), which predicts users’ dialects. For 16 linguistic variables, users select a dialectal variant from a drop-down menu. DÄ then geographically locates the user’s dialect by suggesting a list of communes where dialect variants most similar to their choices are used. Underlying this prediction are 16 maps from the historical Linguistic Atlas of German-speaking Switzerland, which documents the linguistic situation around 1950. Where users disagree with the prediction, they can indicate what they consider to be their dialect’s location. With this information, the 16 variables can be assessed for language change. Thanks to the playfulness of its functionality, DÄ has reached many users; our linguistic analyses are based on data from nearly 60,000 speakers. Results reveal a relative stability for phonetic variables, while lexical and morphological variables seem more prone to change. Crowdsourcing large amounts of dialect data with smartphone apps has the potential to complement existing data collection techniques and to provide evidence that traditional methods cannot, with normal resources, hope to gather. Nonetheless, it is important to emphasize a range of methodological caveats, including sparse knowledge of users’ linguistic backgrounds (users only indicate age, sex) and users’ self-declaration of their dialect. These are discussed and evaluated in detail here. Findings remain intriguing nevertheless: as a means of quality control, we report that traditional dialectological methods have revealed trends similar to those found by the app. This underlines the validity of the crowdsourcing method. We are presently extending DÄ architecture to other languages.

The relevance of sport-related behaviour patterns in the family for the sport participation of youth in Switzerland

Despite various efforts to promote sport participation among youth, social inequalities still exist. An explanation for these social inequalities could be traced back to transgenerational transmission of sport-related values and behaviour patterns in a family (Baur, 1989). Therefore, children’s socialisation to sport is strongly influenced by the parents’ sport-related values and sport behaviour (Burrmann, 2005). However, findings of previous studies are inconsistent, and the daily sport-related behaviour patterns of families have often not been taken into account. The paper deals with the question, to what extent sport participation of youth is influenced by factors such as the importance of sport, the self-evidence of regular sport activity, mutual support, shared sport activities, sport-related health-awareness and communication about sport in the family. In order to pursue this research question, socialisation theories were used as theoretical framework (Hurrelmann, 2006). Based on this approach, a quantitative online survey where 4’039 adolescents and young adults from the ages of 15 to 30 (n = 4’039, M = 21.48, SD = 4.64) answered questions according their sport participation and the sport-related patterns of their families. Furthermore, a qualitative study that included guideline-based interviews with adolescents and young adults (n = 13) were undertaken. Content analysis was used to analyse the interviews. Initial findings of the multiple regression analysis reveal that the most important predictors of sport participation of youth are communication about sport (β = .18, p < .001), mutual support (β = .13, p < .001), regular sport activity (β = .10, p < .01) and the importance of sport in the family (β = .10, p < .01). By means of content analysis, more in-depth information could be identified. The promotion of sport through sport-related behaviour patterns in the family appears to be a successful strategy to develop a durable sport commitment in youth. References Baur, J. (1989). Körper- und Bewegungskarrieren [Body and exercise careers]. Schorndorf: Hofmann. Burrmann, U. (2005). Zur Vermittlung und intergenerationalen "Vererbung" von Sport(vereins)engagements in der Herkunftsfamilie [On placing and "inheriting" intergenerational sport(club) commitment in the family of origin]. Sport und Gesellschaft, 2, 125–154. Hurrelmann, K. (2006). Einführung in die Sozialisationstheorie [Introduction to socialisation theory] (9th ed.). Studium Paedagogik. Weinheim: Beltz.

Effects of variation in nest curtain design on pre-laying behaviour of domestic hens

Laying hens in loose-housing systems select a nest daily in which to lay their eggs among many identical looking nests, they often prefer corner nests. We investigated whether heterogeneity in nest curtain appearance – via colours and symbols – would influence nest selection and result in an even distribution of eggs among nests. We studied pre-laying behaviour in groups of 30 LSL hens across two consecutive trials with eight groups per trial. Half of the groups had access to six identical rollaway group-nests, while the others had access to six nests of the same type differing in outer appearance. Three colours (red, green, yellow) and three black symbols (cross, circle, rectangle) were used to create three different nest curtain designs per pen. Nest position and the side of entrance to the pens were changed at 28 and 30 weeks of age, respectively, whereby the order of changes was counterbalanced across trials. Nest positions were numbered 1–6, with nest position 1 representing the nest closest to the pen entrance. Eggs were counted per nest daily from week of age 18 to 33. Nest visits were recorded individually with an RFID system for the first 5 h of light throughout weeks 24–33. Hens with access to nests differing in curtain appearance entered fewer nests daily than hens with identical nests throughout the study but both groups entered more nests with increasing age. We found no other evidence that curtain appearance affected nest choice and hens were inconsistent in their daily nest selection. A high proportion of eggs were laid in corner nests especially during the first three weeks of lay. The number of visits per egg depended upon nest position and age: it increased with age and was higher after the nest position change than before in nest position 1, whereas it stayed stable over time in nest position 6. At 24 weeks of age, gregarious nest visits (hens visiting an occupied nest when there was at least one unoccupied nest) and solitary nest visits (hens visiting an unoccupied nest when there was at least one occupied nest) accounted for a similar amount of nest visits, however, after the door switch, gregarious nest visits made up more than half of all nest visits, while the number of solitary nest visits had decreased. The visual cues were too subtle or inadequate for hens to develop individual preferences while nest position, entrance side, age and nest occupancy affected the quantity and type of nest visits.

Haemolymph inorganic ion composition, physiology and behaviour dependent on temperature and ambient magnesium concentration in early life history stages of Paralomis granulosa (Decapoda, Anomura, Lithodidae)

Marine brachyuran and anomuran crustaceans are completely absent from the extremely cold (-1.8 °C) Antarctic continental shelf, but caridean shrimps are abundant. This has at least partly been attributed to low capacities for magnesium excretion in brachyuran and anomuran lithodid crabs ([Mg2+]HL = 20-50 mmol/L) compared to caridean shrimp species ([Mg2+]HL = 5-12 mmol/L). Magnesium has an anaesthetizing effect and reduces cold tolerance and activity of adult brachyuran crabs. We investigated whether the capacity for magnesium regulation is a factor that influences temperature-dependent activity of early ontogenetic stages of the Sub-Antarctic lithodid crab Paralomis granulosa. Ion composition (Na+, Mg2+, Ca2+, Cl-, [SO4]2-) was measured in haemolymph withdrawn from larval stages, the first and second juvenile instars (crabs I and II) and adult males and females. Magnesium excretion improved during ontogeny, but haemolymph sulphate concentration was lowest in the zoeal stages. Neither haemolymph magnesium concentrations nor Ca2+:Mg2+ ratios paralleled activity levels of the life stages. Long-term (3 week) cold exposure of crab I to 1 °C caused a significant rise of haemolymph sulphate concentration and a decrease in magnesium and calcium concentrations compared to control temperature (9 °C). Spontaneous swimming activity of the zoeal stages was determined at 1, 4 and 9 °C in natural sea water (NSW, [Mg2+] = 51 mmol/L) and in sea water enriched with magnesium (NSW + Mg2+, [Mg2+] = 97 mmol/L). It declined significantly with temperature but only insignificantly with increased magnesium concentration. Spontaneous velocities were low, reflecting the demersal life style of the zoeae. Heart rate, scaphognathite beat rate and forced swimming activity (maxilliped beat rate, zoea I) or antennule beat rate (crab I) were investigated in response to acute temperature change (9, 6, 3, 1, -1 °C) in NSW or NSW + Mg2+. High magnesium concentration reduced heart rates in both stages. The temperature-frequency curve of the maxilliped beat (maximum: 9.6 beats/s at 6.6 °C in NSW) of zoea I was depressed and shifted towards warmer temperatures by 2 °C in NSW + Mg2+, but antennule beat rate of crab I was not affected. Magnesium may therefore influence cold tolerance of highly active larvae, but it remains questionable whether the slow-moving lithodid crabs with demersal larvae would benefit from an enhanced magnesium excretion in nature.

Ocean acidification impacts on sperm mitochondrial membrane potential bring sperm swimming behaviour near its tipping point

Broadcast spawning marine invertebrates are susceptible to environmental stressors such as climate change, as their reproduction depends on the successful meeting and fertilization of gametes in the water column. Under near-future scenarios of ocean acidification, the swimming behaviour of marine invertebrate sperm is altered. We tested whether this was due to changes in sperm mitochondrial activity by investigating the effects of ocean acidification on sperm metabolism and swimming behaviour in the sea urchin Centrostephanus rodgersii. We used a fluorescent molecular probe (JC-1) and flow cytometry to visualize mitochondrial activity (measured as change in mitochondrial membrane potential, MMP). Sperm MMP was significantly reduced in delta pH -0.3 (35% reduction) and delta pH -0.5 (48% reduction) treatments, whereas sperm swimming behaviour was less sensitive with only slight changes (up to 11% decrease) observed overall. There was significant inter-individual variability in responses of sperm swimming behaviour and MMP to acidified seawater. We suggest it is likely that sperm exposed to these changes in pH are close to their tipping point in terms of physiological tolerance to acidity. Importantly, substantial inter-individual variation in responses of sperm swimming to ocean acidification may increase the scope for selection of resilient phenotypes, which, if heritable, could provide a basis for adaptation to future ocean acidification.

At surface behaviour, dive depth and dive duration and associated hydrographic data of adult male southern elephant seals from King George Island from expedition JUB2010 with links to datasets

Understanding the distribution and foraging ecology of major consumers within pelagic systems, specifically in relation to physical parameters, can be important for the management of bentho-pelagic systems undergoing rapid change associated with global climate change and other anthropogenic disturbances such as fishing (i.e., the Antarctic Peninsula and Scotia Sea). We tracked 11 adult male southern elephant seals (Mirounga leonina), during their five-month post-moult foraging migrations from King George Island (Isla 25 de Mayo), northern Antarctic Peninsula, using tags capable of recording and transmitting behavioural data and in situ temperature and salinity data. Seals foraged mostly within the Weddell-Scotia Confluence, while a few foraged along the western Antarctic Peninsula shelf of the Bellingshausen Sea. Mixed model outputs suggest that the at-sea behaviour of seals was associated with a number of environmental parameters, especially seafloor depth, sea-ice concentrations and the temperature structure of the water column. Seals increased dive bottom times and travelled at slower speeds in shallower areas and areas with increased sea-ice concentrations. Changes in dive depth and durations, as well as relative amount of time spent during the bottom phases of dives, were observed in relation to differences in overall temperature gradient, likely as a response to vertical changes in prey distribution associated with temperature stratification in the water column. Our results illustrate the likely complex influences of bathymetry, hydrography and sea ice on the behaviour of male southern elephant seals in a changing environment and highlight the need for region-specific approaches to studying environmental influences on behaviour.