Looking to the future : Predicting renal replacement outcomes in a large community cohort with chronic kidney disease

Peer reviewed

Looking to the future : Predicting renal replacement outcomes in a large community cohort with chronic kidney disease

Peer reviewed

A Generalized Fuzzy Linguistic Model for Predicting Component Concentrations in an Optical Gas Sensing System

Motivated by environmental protection concerns, monitoring the flue gas of thermal power plant is now often mandatory due to the need to ensure that emission levels stay within safe limits. Optical based gas sensing systems are increasingly employed for this purpose, with regression techniques used to relate gas optical absorption spectra to the concentrations of specific gas components of interest (NOx, SO2 etc.). Accurately predicting gas concentrations from absorption spectra remains a challenging problem due to the presence of nonlinearities in the relationships and the high-dimensional and correlated nature of the spectral data. This article proposes a generalized fuzzy linguistic model (GFLM) to address this challenge. The GFLM is made up of a series of “If-Then” fuzzy rules. The absorption spectra are input variables in the rule antecedent. The rule consequent is a general nonlinear polynomial function of the absorption spectra. Model parameters are estimated using least squares and gradient descent optimization algorithms. The performance of GFLM is compared with other traditional prediction models, such as partial least squares, support vector machines, multilayer perceptron neural networks and radial basis function networks, for two real flue gas spectral datasets: one from a coal-fired power plant and one from a gas-fired power plant. The experimental results show that the generalized fuzzy linguistic model has good predictive ability, and is competitive with alternative approaches, while having the added advantage of providing an interpretable model.

A generalized fuzzy linguistic model for predicting component concentrations in an optical gas sensing system

Motivated by environmental protection concerns, monitoring the flue gas of thermal power plant is now often mandatory due to the need to ensure that emission levels stay within safe limits. Optical based gas sensing systems are increasingly employed for this purpose, with regression techniques used to relate gas optical absorption spectra to the concentrations of specific gas components of interest (NO_x, SO₂ etc.). Accurately predicting gas concentrations from absorption spectra remains a challenging problem due to the presence of nonlinearities in the relationships and the high-dimensional and correlated nature of the spectral data. This article proposes a generalized fuzzy linguistic model (GFLM) to address this challenge. The GFLM is made up of a series of “If-Then” fuzzy rules. The absorption spectra are input variables in the rule antecedent. The rule consequent is a general nonlinear polynomial function of the absorption spectra. Model parameters are estimated using least squares and gradient descent optimization algorithms. The performance of GFLM is compared with other traditional prediction models, such as partial least squares, support vector machines, multilayer perceptron neural networks and radial basis function networks, for two real flue gas spectral datasets: one from a coal-fired power plant and one from a gas-fired power plant. The experimental results show that the generalized fuzzy linguistic model has good predictive ability, and is competitive with alternative approaches, while having the added advantage of providing an interpretable model.

Safety Assessment Tool for Construction Zone Work Phasing Plans, 2016

The Highway Safety Manual (HSM) is the compilation of national safety research that provides quantitative methods for analyzing highway safety. The HSM presents crash modification functions related to freeway work zone characteristics such as work zone duration and length. These crash modification functions were based on freeway work zones with high traffic volumes in California. When the HSM-referenced model was calibrated for Missouri, the value was 3.78, which is not ideal since it is significantly larger than 1. Therefore, new models were developed in this study using Missouri data to capture geographical, driver behavior, and other factors in the Midwest. Also, new models for expressway and rural two-lane work zones that barely were studied in the literature were developed. A large sample of 20,837 freeway, 8,993 expressway, and 64,476 rural two-lane work zones in Missouri was analyzed to derive 15 work zone crash prediction models. The most appropriate samples of 1,546 freeway, 1,189 expressway, and 6,095 rural two-lane work zones longer than 0.1 mile and with a duration of greater than 10 days were used to make eight, four, and three models, respectively. A challenging question for practitioners is always how to use crash prediction models to make the best estimation of work zone crash count. To solve this problem, a user-friendly software tool was developed in a spreadsheet format to predict work zone crashes based on work zone characteristics. This software selects the best model, estimates the work zone crashes by severity, and converts them to monetary values using standard crash estimates. This study also included a survey of departments of transportation (DOTs), Federal Highway Administration (FHWA) representatives, and contractors to assess the current state of the practice regarding work zone safety. The survey results indicate that many agencies look at work zone safety informally using engineering judgment. Respondents indicated that they would like a tool that could help them to balance work zone safety across projects by looking at crashes and user costs.

Análise bioclimática do bairro do Renascença II São Luis-MA: realidade e perspectiva do conforto térmico em espaços externos

The present research concerns about outdoor s thermal comfort conditions in hot-humid climate cities, understanding that life quality is a result of the urban object s type built for the human being in an environment with specific climate and morphological characteristics. It is presented as object of study the correlation between the neighborhood Renascença II s microclimate in São Luis /MA-Brazil, hot-humid climate city, and its urban morphological changes. As well as the thermal comfort s satisfaction level of its outdoor users. The research has as general goal to diagnosis the way these transformations caused by the urbanization influence the Renascença II s microclimate, identifying critical spots of the studied area, in order to contribute with land use recommendations based on bioclimatic architecture concepts and supply bases to urban design decisions adequate to the São Luis climate. It is presented as theoretical bases the urban climate, its concepts and elements. After that, the thermal comfort conditioners and its prediction models of thermal comfort sensation in outdoor are presented. The predictive models are presented along with bioclimatic assessment methods. Finally the use of bioclimatic assessment as an effective tool to identify places that need changes or preservation in order to seek environment quality. The applied methodology was based on the studies of Katzschner (1997), complemented by Oliveira s (1988) and Bustos Romero s (2001) studies that suggest an analysis and evaluation of maps of topography, buildings floors, land use, green areas and land covering, in order to overlap their characteristics and identify climate variable s measurements points; then a quantitative analysis of the climate variables (air temperature and humidity, wind speed and direction) of the chosen points takes place. It was perceived that Renaissance II has no permanence areas as squares or parks, its outdoor has little vegetation and presets high land impermeability and built density levels. The majority of the people interviewed said that was comfortable in a range of air temperature between 27,28ºC and 30,71ºC. The elaboration of a neighborhood master plan is important, which defines strategies for improvement of the life quality of its inhabitants

Analysis and modelling of immune cell behaviour in lymph nodes based on multi-photon imaging

This thesis presents quantitative studies of T cell and dendritic cell (DC) behaviour in mouse lymph nodes (LNs) in the naive state and following immunisation. These processes are of importance and interest in basic immunology, and better understanding could improve both diagnostic capacity and therapeutic manipulations, potentially helping in producing more effective vaccines or developing treatments for autoimmune diseases. The problem is also interesting conceptually as it is relevant to other fields where 3D movement of objects is tracked with a discrete scanning interval. A general immunology introduction is presented in chapter 1. In chapter 2, I apply quantitative methods to multi-photon imaging data to measure how T cells and DCs are spatially arranged in LNs. This has been previously studied to describe differences between the naive and immunised state and as an indicator of the magnitude of the immune response in LNs, but previous analyses have been generally descriptive. The quantitative analysis shows that some of the previous conclusions may have been premature. In chapter 3, I use Bayesian state-space models to test some hypotheses about the mode of T cell search for DCs. A two-state mode of movement where T cells can be classified as either interacting to a DC or freely migrating is supported over a model where T cells would home in on DCs at distance through for example the action of chemokines. In chapter 4, I study whether T cell migration is linked to the geometric structure of the fibroblast reticular network (FRC). I find support for the hypothesis that the movement is constrained to the fibroblast reticular cell (FRC) network over an alternative 'random walk with persistence time' model where cells would move randomly, with a short-term persistence driven by a hypothetical T cell intrinsic 'clock'. I also present unexpected results on the FRC network geometry. Finally, a quantitative method is presented for addressing some measurement biases inherent to multi-photon imaging. In all three chapters, novel findings are made, and the methods developed have the potential for further use to address important problems in the field. In chapter 5, I present a summary and synthesis of results from chapters 3-4 and a more speculative discussion of these results and potential future directions.

Seasonal changes of heat and moisture fluxes from the Caspian Sea surface and its effect on synoptic systems with heavy rainfalls in southern shores of the sea during 2005-2010

Caspian Sea with its unique characteristics is a significant source to supply required heat and moisture for passing weather systems over the north of Iran. Investigation of heat and moisture fluxes in the region and their effects on these systems that could lead to floods and major financial and human losses is essential in weather forecasting. Nowadays by improvement of numerical weather and climate prediction models and the increasing need to more accurate forecasting of heavy rainfall, the evaluation and verification of these models has been become much more important. In this study we have used the WRF model as a research-practical one with many valuable characteristics and flexibilities. In this research, the effects of heat and moisture fluxes of Caspian Sea on the synoptic and dynamical structure of 20 selective systems associated with heavy rainfall in the southern shores of Caspian Sea are investigated. These systems are selected based on the rainfall data gathered by three local stations named: Rasht, Babolsar and Gorgan in different seasons during a five-year period (2005-2010) with maximum amount of rainfall through the 24 hours of a day. In addition to synoptic analyses of these systems, the WRF model with and without surface flues was run using the two nested grids with the horizontal resolutions of 12 and 36 km. The results show that there are good consistencies between the predicted distribution of rainfall field, time of beginning and end of rainfall by the model and the observations. But the model underestimates the amounts of rainfall and the maximum difference with the observation is about 69%. Also, no significant changes in the results are seen when the domain and the resolution of computations are changed. The other noticeable point is that the systems are severely weakened by removing heat and moisture fluxes and thereby the amounts of large scale rainfall are decreased up to 77% and the convective rainfalls tend to zero.

Análise comportamental : um estudo por análise de sobrevivência, aplicada a cartões de crédito

A capacidade de adaptação e rapidez de decisão, distinguem as empresas que melhor conseguem competir e crescer no mercado global. Para atuar rapidamente, as organizações precisam de sistemas de informação cada vez mais eficazes, surgindo recentemente uma nova função considerada fundamental para as empresas, que é a de Cientista de Dados. É neste contexto e para responder aos desafios atuais e futuros, que surgem sistemas de informação cada vez mais avançados, suportados por modelos de análise e visualização estatística. Este trabalho consiste em criar uma metodologia de desenvolvimento de modelos de previsão de incumprimento e perfil do consumidor, aplicado a cartões de crédito, com base numa exposição de análise comportamental, utilizando técnicas de análise de sobrevivência. São definidas técnicas de tratamento dos dados recolhidos, estimado modelo não-paramétrico de Kaplan-Meier e vários modelos de Cox de riscos proporcionais. Com recurso à curva ROC, dependente do tempo, à AUC e ao índice de Gini, conclui-se que o modelo final apresenta um desempenho positivo para identificar os clientes em situação de incumprimento ou com propensão a incumprir.

MEDAR/MEDATLAS 2002: A Mediterranean and Black Sea database for operational oceanography Elsevier Oceanography Series

A comprehensive database of temperature, salinity and bio-chemical parameters in the Mediterranean and Black Sea has been constructed through comprehensive co-operation between the bordering countries. Statistical climatologies have been computed with all assembled and quality controlled data. The database, designed to initiate and validate prediction models, also represents a system to quality-check new incoming data produced by ocean observing systems.

Análise bioclimática do bairro do Renascença II São Luis-MA: realidade e perspectiva do conforto térmico em espaços externos

The present research concerns about outdoor s thermal comfort conditions in hot-humid climate cities, understanding that life quality is a result of the urban object s type built for the human being in an environment with specific climate and morphological characteristics. It is presented as object of study the correlation between the neighborhood Renascença II s microclimate in São Luis /MA-Brazil, hot-humid climate city, and its urban morphological changes. As well as the thermal comfort s satisfaction level of its outdoor users. The research has as general goal to diagnosis the way these transformations caused by the urbanization influence the Renascença II s microclimate, identifying critical spots of the studied area, in order to contribute with land use recommendations based on bioclimatic architecture concepts and supply bases to urban design decisions adequate to the São Luis climate. It is presented as theoretical bases the urban climate, its concepts and elements. After that, the thermal comfort conditioners and its prediction models of thermal comfort sensation in outdoor are presented. The predictive models are presented along with bioclimatic assessment methods. Finally the use of bioclimatic assessment as an effective tool to identify places that need changes or preservation in order to seek environment quality. The applied methodology was based on the studies of Katzschner (1997), complemented by Oliveira s (1988) and Bustos Romero s (2001) studies that suggest an analysis and evaluation of maps of topography, buildings floors, land use, green areas and land covering, in order to overlap their characteristics and identify climate variable s measurements points; then a quantitative analysis of the climate variables (air temperature and humidity, wind speed and direction) of the chosen points takes place. It was perceived that Renaissance II has no permanence areas as squares or parks, its outdoor has little vegetation and presets high land impermeability and built density levels. The majority of the people interviewed said that was comfortable in a range of air temperature between 27,28ºC and 30,71ºC. The elaboration of a neighborhood master plan is important, which defines strategies for improvement of the life quality of its inhabitants

Exigências energéticas para mantença e para o crescimento de frangos de corte

O trabalho foi realizado com o objetivo de determinar, pelo método fatorial, as exigências de energia metabolizável (EM) de frangos de corte. Foi conduzido um ensaio em câmaras climáticas mantidas às temperaturas de 13, 23 e 32ºC (±2ºC) para se verificar o efeito da temperatura sobre as exigências de energia metabolizável para mantença utilizando-se a técnica do abate comparativo. As exigências de energia metabolizável para ganho de peso foram determinadas com base no teor de energia corporal e na eficiência energética de utilização da EM. As exigências de mantença foram de 159,36; 116,17 e 128,66 kcal/kg0,75/dia para 13, 23 e 32ºC, respectivamente, verificando-se efeito quadrático da temperatura sobre as exigências de mantença (EMm=300,14 - 14,61.T + 0,2876.T², r²=0,90). As exigências de em para ganho de peso corporal foram de 3,72 kcal/g para machos e 3,98 kcal/g para fêmeas de 1 a 21 dias; 4,21 para machos e 3,93 para fêmeas de 22 a 42 dias; e 4,51 para machos e 7,04 para fêmeas de 43 a 56 dias. Considerando-se as exigências determinadas, foram elaborados modelos de predição das exigências diárias de energia para frangos de corte, nos quais foram considerados o peso corporal, a temperatura ambiente (para estimativa das exigências de mantença) e o ganho de peso (para cálculo das exigências de ganho). Com base nas comparações das exigências determinadas pelos modelos e nas recomendações do manual da linhagem, conclui-se que os modelos elaborados predizem as exigências energéticas dos frangos de corte.

From the traditional verification approach to the spatial methods: a study of applicability of the SAL metric in the framework of the WMO project MesoVICT

Increasing in resolution of numerical weather prediction models has allowed more and more realistic forecasts of atmospheric parameters. Due to the growing variability into predicted fields the traditional verification methods are not always able to describe the model ability because they are based on a grid-point-by-grid-point matching between observation and prediction. Recently, new spatial verification methods have been developed with the aim of show the benefit associated to the high resolution forecast. Nested in among of the MesoVICT international project, the initially aim of this work is to compare the newly tecniques remarking advantages and disadvantages. First of all, the MesoVICT basic examples, represented by synthetic precipitation fields, have been examined. Giving an error evaluation in terms of structure, amplitude and localization of the precipitation fields, the SAL method has been studied more thoroughly respect to the others approaches with its implementation in the core cases of the project. The verification procedure has concerned precipitation fields over central Europe: comparisons between the forecasts performed by the 00z COSMO-2 model and the VERA (Vienna Enhanced Resolution Analysis) have been done. The study of these cases has shown some weaknesses of the methodology examined; in particular has been highlighted the presence of a correlation between the optimal domain size and the extention of the precipitation systems. In order to increase ability of SAL, a subdivision of the original domain in three subdomains has been done and the method has been applied again. Some limits have been found in cases in which at least one of the two domains does not show precipitation. The overall results for the subdomains have been summarized on scatter plots. With the aim to identify systematic errors of the model the variability of the three parameters has been studied for each subdomain.

Experimental and modeling studies of forced convection storage and drying systems for sweet potatoes

Sweet potato is an important strategic agricultural crop grown in many countries around the world. The roots and aerial vine components of the crop are used for both human consumption and, to some extent as a cheap source of animal feed. In spite of its economic value and growing contribution to health and nutrition, harvested sweet potato roots and aerial vine components has limited shelf-life and is easily susceptible to post-harvest losses. Although post-harvest losses of both sweet potato roots and aerial vine components is significant, there is no information available that will support the design and development of appropriate storage and preservation systems. In this context, the present study was initiated to improve scientific knowledge about sweet potato post-harvest handling. Additionally, the study also seeks to develop a PV ventilated mud storehouse for storage of sweet potato roots under tropical conditions. In study one, airflow resistance of sweet potato aerial vine components was investigated. The influence of different operating parameters such as airflow rate, moisture content and bulk depth at different levels on airflow resistance was analyzed. All the operating parameters were observed to have significant (P < 0.01) effect on airflow resistance. Prediction models were developed and were found to adequately describe the experimental pressure drop data. In study two, the resistance of airflow through unwashed and clean sweet potato roots was investigated. The effect of sweet potato roots shape factor, surface roughness, orientation to airflow, and presence of soil fraction on airflow resistance was also assessed. The pressure drop through unwashed and clean sweet potato roots was observed to increase with higher airflow, bed depth, root grade composition, and presence of soil fraction. The physical properties of the roots were incorporated into a modified Ergun model and compared with a modified Shedd’s model. The modified Ergun model provided the best fit to the experimental data when compared with the modified Shedd’s model. In study three, the effect of sweet potato root size (medium and large), different air velocity and temperature on the cooling/or heating rate and time of individual sweet potato roots were investigated. Also, a simulation model which is based on the fundamental solution of the transient equations was proposed for estimating the cooling and heating time at the centre of sweet potato roots. The results showed that increasing air velocity during cooling and heating significantly (P < 0.05) affects the cooling and heating times. Furthermore, the cooling and heating times were significantly different (P < 0.05) among medium and large size sweet potato roots. Comparison of the simulation results with experimental data confirmed that the transient simulation model can be used to accurately estimate the cooling and heating times of whole sweet potato roots under forced convection conditions. In study four, the performance of charcoal evaporative cooling pad configurations for integration into sweet potato roots storage systems was investigated. The experiments were carried out at different levels of air velocity, water flow rates, and three pad configurations: single layer pad (SLP), double layers pad (DLP) and triple layers pad (TLP) made out of small and large size charcoal particles. The results showed that higher air velocity has tremendous effect on pressure drop. Increasing the water flow rate above the range tested had no practical benefits in terms of cooling. It was observed that DLP and TLD configurations with larger wet surface area for both types of pads provided high cooling efficiencies. In study five, CFD technique in the ANSYS Fluent software was used to simulate airflow distribution in a low-cost mud storehouse. By theoretically investigating different geometries of air inlet, plenum chamber, and outlet as well as its placement using ANSYS Fluent software, an acceptable geometry with uniform air distribution was selected and constructed. Experimental measurements validated the selected design. In study six, the performance of the developed PV ventilated system was investigated. Field measurements showed satisfactory results of the directly coupled PV ventilated system. Furthermore, the option of integrating a low-cost evaporative cooling system into the mud storage structure was also investigated. The results showed a reduction of ambient temperature inside the mud storehouse while relative humidity was enhanced. The ability of the developed storage system to provide and maintain airflow, temperature and relative humidity which are the key parameters for shelf-life extension of sweet potato roots highlight its ability to reduce post-harvest losses at the farmer level, particularly under tropical climate conditions.

Asociación entre la escala de riesgo Framingham y el puntaje de calcio coronario

Introducción: Entre las diferentes herramientas clínicas para evaluar la presencia de enfermedad coronaria mediante puntajes, la más usada es la Escala de Riesgo cardiovascular de Framingham. Desde hace unos años, se creó el puntaje de calcio coronario el cual mide el riesgo cardiovascular según la presencia de placas ateromatosas vistas por tomografía computarizada. Se evaluó la asociación entre la escala de Framigham y el puntaje de calcio coronario en una población de sujetos sanos asintomáticos. Metodología: Se realizó un estudio transversal para evaluar la asociación entre el puntaje de calcio coronario y la escala de Framingham en sujetos asintomáticos que se practicaron exámen médico preventivo en la Fundación Cardioinfantil- Instituto de Cardiología (FCI-IC) en el periodo comprendido entre 1 de Julio 2011 hasta el 31 de octubre de 2015. Resultados: Se evaluaron 262 pacientes en total. La prevalencia de riesgo cardiovascular fue bajo en un 77.86% de la población, medio en 18.70% y alto en 3.44%, según la escala de Framingham. El riesgo cardiovascular según el puntaje de Calcio coronario fue nulo 70.99%, bajo en 21.75%, medio en 4.19%, severo en 3.05%. Se encontró una asociación entre ambos puntajes para riesgo estadísticamente significativa (p0,00001) Discusión: El riesgo cardiovascular establecido por escala de Framingham se relaciona de forma significativa con la presencia de placas aterioscleróticas. El estudio demostró que en una muestra de sujetos asintomáticos, hay una alteración estructural coronaria temprana.