901 resultados para Asymptotic behaviour, Bayesian methods, Mixture models, Overfitting, Posterior concentration
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Urban metabolism considers a city as a system with flows of energy and material between it and the environment. Recent advances in bio-physical sciences provide methods and models to estimate local scale energy, water, carbon and pollutant fluxes. However, good communication is required to provide this new knowledge and its implications to endusers (such as urban planners, architects and engineers). The FP7 project BRIDGE (sustainaBle uRban plannIng Decision support accountinG for urban mEtabolism) aimed to address this gap by illustrating the advantages of considering these issues in urban planning. The BRIDGE Decision Support System (DSS) aids the evaluation of the sustainability of urban planning interventions. The Multi Criteria Analysis approach adopted provides a method to cope with the complexity of urban metabolism. In consultation with targeted end-users, objectives were defined in relation to the interactions between the environmental elements (fluxes of energy, water, carbon and pollutants) and socioeconomic components (investment costs, housing, employment, etc.) of urban sustainability. The tool was tested in five case study cities: Helsinki, Athens, London, Florence and Gliwice; and sub-models were evaluated using flux data selected. This overview of the BRIDGE project covers the methods and tools used to measure and model the physical flows, the selected set of sustainability indicators, the methodological framework for evaluating urban planning alternatives and the resulting DSS prototype.
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We present five new cloud detection algorithms over land based on dynamic threshold or Bayesian techniques, applicable to the Advanced Along Track Scanning Radiometer (AATSR) instrument and compare these with the standard threshold based SADIST cloud detection scheme. We use a manually classified dataset as a reference to assess algorithm performance and quantify the impact of each cloud detection scheme on land surface temperature (LST) retrieval. The use of probabilistic Bayesian cloud detection methods improves algorithm true skill scores by 8-9 % over SADIST (maximum score of 77.93 % compared to 69.27 %). We present an assessment of the impact of imperfect cloud masking, in relation to the reference cloud mask, on the retrieved AATSR LST imposing a 2 K tolerance over a 3x3 pixel domain. We find an increase of 5-7 % in the observations falling within this tolerance when using Bayesian methods (maximum of 92.02 % compared to 85.69 %). We also demonstrate that the use of dynamic thresholds in the tests employed by SADIST can significantly improve performance, applicable to cloud-test data to provided by the Sea and Land Surface Temperature Radiometer (SLSTR) due to be launched on the Sentinel 3 mission (estimated 2014).
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We have extensively analysed the interdependence between cloud optical depth, droplet effective radius, liquid water path (LWP) and geometric thickness for stratiform warm clouds using ground-based observations. In particular, this analysis uses cloud optical depths retrieved from untapped solar background signals that are previously unwanted and need to be removed in most lidar applications. Combining these new optical depth retrievals with radar and microwave observations at the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Climate Research Facility in Oklahoma during 2005–2007, we have found that LWP and geometric thickness increase and follow a power-law relationship with cloud optical depth regardless of the presence of drizzle; LWP and geometric thickness in drizzling clouds can be generally 20–40 % and at least 10 % higher than those in non-drizzling clouds, respectively. In contrast, droplet effective radius shows a negative correlation with optical depth in drizzling clouds and a positive correlation in non-drizzling clouds, where, for large optical depths, it asymptotes to 10 μm. This asymptotic behaviour in non-drizzling clouds is found in both the droplet effective radius and optical depth, making it possible to use simple thresholds of optical depth, droplet size, or a combination of these two variables for drizzle delineation. This paper demonstrates a new way to enhance ground-based cloud observations and drizzle delineations using existing lidar networks.
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An analysis of diabatic heating and moistening processes from 12-36 hour lead time forecasts from 12 Global Circulation Models are presented as part of the "Vertical structure and physical processes of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO)" project. A lead time of 12-36 hours is chosen to constrain the large scale dynamics and thermodynamics to be close to observations while avoiding being too close to the initial spin-up for the models as they adjust to being driven from the YOTC analysis. A comparison of the vertical velocity and rainfall with the observations and YOTC analysis suggests that the phases of convection associated with the MJO are constrained in most models at this lead time although the rainfall in the suppressed phase is typically overestimated. Although the large scale dynamics is reasonably constrained, moistening and heating profiles have large inter-model spread. In particular, there are large spreads in convective heating and moistening at mid-levels during the transition to active convection. Radiative heating and cloud parameters have the largest relative spread across models at upper levels during the active phase. A detailed analysis of time step behaviour shows that some models show strong intermittency in rainfall and differences in the precipitation and dynamics relationship between models. The wealth of model outputs archived during this project is a very valuable resource for model developers beyond the study of the MJO. In addition, the findings of this study can inform the design of process model experiments, and inform the priorities for field experiments and future observing systems.
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Species of the genus Culex Linnaeus have been incriminated as the main vectors of lymphatic filariases and are important vectors of arboviruses, including West Nile virus. Sequences corresponding to a fragment of 478 bp of the cytochrome c oxidase subunit I gene, which includes part of the barcode region, of 37 individuals of 17 species of genus Culex were generated to establish relationships among five subgenera, Culex, Phenacomyia, Melanoconion, Microculex, and Carrollia, and one species of the genus Lutzia that occurs in Brazil. Bayesian methods were employed for the phylogenetic analyses. Results of sequence comparisons showed that individuals identified as Culex dolosus, Culex mollis, and Culex imitator possess high intraspecific divergence (3.1, 2.3, and 3.5%, respectively) when using the Kimura two parameters model. These differences were associated either with distinct morphological characteristics of the male genitalia or larval and pupal stages, suggesting that these may represent species complexes. The Bayesian topology suggested that the genus and subgenus Culex are paraphyletic relative to Lutzia and Phenacomyia, respectively. The cytochrome c oxidase subunit I sequences may be a useful tool to both estimate phylogenetic relationships and identify morphologically similar species of the genus Culex.
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The toucan genus Ramphastos (Piciformes: Ramphastidae) has been a model in the formulation of Neotropical paleobiogeographic hypotheses. Weckstein (2005) reported on the phylogenetic history of this genus based on three mitochondrial genes, but some relationships were weakly supported and one of the subspecies of R. vitellinus (citreolaemus) was unsampled. This study expands on Weckstein (2005) by adding more DNA sequence data (including a nuclear marker) and more samples, including R v. citreolaemus. Maximum parsimony, maximum likelihood, and Bayesian methods recovered similar trees, with nodes showing high support. A monophyletic R. vitellinus complex was strongly supported as the sister-group to R. brevis. The results also confirmed that the southeastern and northern populations of R. vitellinus ariel are paraphyletic. X v. citreolaemus is sister to the Amazonian subspecies of the vitellinus complex. Using three protein-coding genes (COI, cytochrome-b and ND2) and interval-calibrated nodes under a Bayesian relaxed-clock framework, we infer that ramphastid genera originated in the middle Miocene to early Pliocene, Ramphastos species originated between late Miocene and early Pleistocene, and intra-specific divergences took place throughout the Pleistocene. Parsimony-based reconstruction of ancestral areas indicated that evolution of the four trans-Andean Ramphastos taxa (R. v. citreolaemus, R. a. swainsonii, R. brevis and R. sulfuratus) was associated with four independent dispersals from the cis-Andean region. The last pulse of Andean uplift may have been important for the evolution of R. sulfuratus, whereas the origin of the other trans-Andean Ramphastos taxa is consistent with vicariance due to drying events in the lowland forests north of the Andes. Estimated rates of molecular evolution were higher than the ""standard"" bird rate of 2% substitutions/site/million years for two of the three genes analyzed (cytochrome-b and ND2). (C) 2009 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
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The substitution of missing values, also called imputation, is an important data preparation task for many domains. Ideally, the substitution of missing values should not insert biases into the dataset. This aspect has been usually assessed by some measures of the prediction capability of imputation methods. Such measures assume the simulation of missing entries for some attributes whose values are actually known. These artificially missing values are imputed and then compared with the original values. Although this evaluation is useful, it does not allow the influence of imputed values in the ultimate modelling task (e.g. in classification) to be inferred. We argue that imputation cannot be properly evaluated apart from the modelling task. Thus, alternative approaches are needed. This article elaborates on the influence of imputed values in classification. In particular, a practical procedure for estimating the inserted bias is described. As an additional contribution, we have used such a procedure to empirically illustrate the performance of three imputation methods (majority, naive Bayes and Bayesian networks) in three datasets. Three classifiers (decision tree, naive Bayes and nearest neighbours) have been used as modelling tools in our experiments. The achieved results illustrate a variety of situations that can take place in the data preparation practice.
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Using a combination of several methods, such as variational methods. the sub and supersolutions method, comparison principles and a priori estimates. we study existence, multiplicity, and the behavior with respect to lambda of positive solutions of p-Laplace equations of the form -Delta(p)u = lambda h(x, u), where the nonlinear term has p-superlinear growth at infinity, is nonnegative, and satisfies h(x, a(x)) = 0 for a suitable positive function a. In order to manage the asymptotic behavior of the solutions we extend a result due to Redheffer and we establish a new Liouville-type theorem for the p-Laplacian operator, where the nonlinearity involved is superlinear, nonnegative, and has positive zeros. (C) 2009 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
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We present a sufficient condition for a zero of a function that arises typically as the characteristic equation of a linear functional differential equations of neutral type, to be simple and dominant. This knowledge is useful in order to derive the asymptotic behaviour of solutions of such equations. A simple characteristic equation, arisen from the study of delay equations with small delay, is analyzed in greater detail. (C) 2009 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
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Condition monitoring of wooden railway sleepers applications are generallycarried out by visual inspection and if necessary some impact acoustic examination iscarried out intuitively by skilled personnel. In this work, a pattern recognition solutionhas been proposed to automate the process for the achievement of robust results. Thestudy presents a comparison of several pattern recognition techniques together withvarious nonstationary feature extraction techniques for classification of impactacoustic emissions. Pattern classifiers such as multilayer perceptron, learning cectorquantization and gaussian mixture models, are combined with nonstationary featureextraction techniques such as Short Time Fourier Transform, Continuous WaveletTransform, Discrete Wavelet Transform and Wigner-Ville Distribution. Due to thepresence of several different feature extraction and classification technqies, datafusion has been investigated. Data fusion in the current case has mainly beeninvestigated on two levels, feature level and classifier level respectively. Fusion at thefeature level demonstrated best results with an overall accuracy of 82% whencompared to the human operator.
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Background Successful implementation of new methods and models of healthcare to achieve better patient outcomes and safe, person-centered care is dependent on the physical environment of the healthcare architecture in which the healthcare is provided. Thus, decisions concerning healthcare architecture are critical because it affects people and work processes for many years and requires a long-term financial commitment from society. In this paper, we describe and suggest several strategies (critical factors) to promote shared-decision making when planning and designing new healthcare environments. Discussion This paper discusses challenges and hindrances observed in the literature and from the authors extensive experiences in the field of planning and designing healthcare environments. An overview is presented of the challenges and new approaches for a process that involves the mutual exchange of knowledge among various stakeholders. Additionally, design approaches that balance the influence of specific and local requirements with general knowledge and evidence that should be encouraged are discussed. Summary We suggest a shared-decision making and collaborative planning and design process between representatives from healthcare, construction sector and architecture based on evidence and end-users’ perspectives. If carefully and systematically applied, this approach will support and develop a framework for creating high quality healthcare environments.
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Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)
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Purpose:The purpose of this study was to evaluate stress transfer patterns between implant-tooth-connected prostheses comparing rigid and semirigid connectors and internal and external hexagon implants.Materials and Methods:Two models were made of photoelastic resin PL-2, with an internal hexagon implant of 4.00 x 13 mm and another with an external hexagon implant of 4.00 x 13 mm. Three denture designs were fabricated for each implant model, incorporating one type of connection in each one to connect implants and teeth: 1) welded rigid connection; 2) semirigid connection; and 3) rigid connection with occlusal screw. The models were placed in the polariscope, and 100-N axial forces were applied on fixed points on the occlusal surface of the dentures.Results:There was a trend toward less intensity in the stresses on the semirigid connection and solid rigid connection in the model with the external hexagon; among the three types of connections in the model with the internal hexagon implant, the semirigid connection was the most unfavorable one; in the tooth-implant association, it is preferable to use the external hexagon implant.Conclusions:The internal hexagon implant establishes a greater depth of hexagon retention and an increase in the level of denture stability in comparison with the implant with the external hexagon. However, this greater stability of the internal hexagon generated greater stresses in the abutment structures. Therefore, when this association is necessary, it is preferable to use the external hexagon implant.
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Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)
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OBJETIVO: avaliar o sistema de forças gerado pela mola T centralizada no espaço interbraquete, com pré-ativação preconizada por Burstone. MÉTODOS: utilizando-se modelos fotoelásticos, a mola T com pré-ativações preconizadas por Burstone, confeccionada com fio retangular de titânio-molibdênio (TMA) de secção 0,017x 0,025, centralizada e com ativação de 6mm, 3mm e em posição neutra. Para melhor confiabilidade dos resultados, os testes foram repetidos em três modelos igualmente duplicados e confeccionados pelo mesmo operador. Utilizou-se uma distância interbraquetes de 27mm. Para compreensão dos resultados, as franjas foram visualizadas através do polariscópio, fotografadas e analisadas qualitativamente. RESULTADOS: por meio da análise qualitativa da ordem de franjas no modelo fotoelástico, notou-se que, nas extremidades de retração e ancoragem, ambas apresentaram simetria no sistema de força, em toda extensão radicular.